I set out to draw what the post-census congressional districts of Georgia might look like if we fail to win the governorship or take back one of the houses of the state legislature. I get nauseous when I look at this map, so I think I did a decent job. After all is said and done, this map will probably elect four Democrats and ten Republicans.
When the Republicans DeLaymandered Texas, they mainly targeted moderate, white Democrats, and I think the Republicans in Georgia will probably try the same thing, so Jim Marshall and John Barrow are toast under this map. The other two goals of the Republicans will most likely be to hog the new 14th district for themselves, and to make sure John Linder’s district won’t have trended out from under him by the year 2022, especially since he will most likely retire before then.
Without further ado, here are the pictures.
Northern Georgia:
Southern Georgia:
Greater Atlanta:
District 2 (Sanford Bishop vs. Jim Marshall):
District 5 (John Barrow):
District 1 – Jack Kingston (Light Blue) – Kingston’s district picks up some of Savannah’s African-American residents in order to remove them from Barrow’s district, and it shrinks somewhat in size, but this district should still be safe for him.
District 2 – Sanford Bishop vs. Jim Marshall (Dark Green) – While the old 2nd District was majority white and confined to Southwest Georgia, the new 2nd is majority-black and sprawls from Columbus to Augusta, and includes both Sanford Bishop’s home in Albany and Jim Marshall’s home in Macon. I think Bishop is an overwhelming favorite here, because it contains much more of his former territory than Marshall’s, and because he is African-American, which is always a plus when you’re running in a majority black district. If Marshall wants to stay in public life, he would probably want to either move to the 10th or 14th and run there, or retire and plan to either run for Senate or Governor in 2014.
District 3 – Lynn Westmoreland (Dark Purple) – Lynn Westmoreland’s loses Henry County and its portion of Douglas County, and picks up some territory near the Alabama border, as well as Monroe County. It is probably even more Republican than it is in its current form.
District 4 – TBD (Red) – With Nathan Deal running for Governor, I have no idea who this district’s representative will be, but unless hell freezes over, they will be a Republican who can stand to be weakened a bit, since Deal’s current district has a PVI of R+28! This district gets a new number (it used to be the 9th), and picks up part of Gwinnett County, while shedding some territory in the North Georgia Mountains. This district may look different, depending on where Deal’s replacement lives.
District 5 – John Barrow (Yellow) – This district is drawn for the sole purpose of defeating John Barrow. Barrow loses many of his African-American constituents to the 2nd, and to a lesser extent, the 1st. On top of that, there is a tendril that extends into some deeply conservative areas to the north of Augusta. Barrow will have a tough time holding this one.
District 6 – Tom Price (Teal) – This district, which was once represented by Newt Gingrich, changes very little, losing a small section of North Fulton, as well as Dunwoody, in DeKalb County, to the 7th district. Population growth is sufficient that it doesn’t take in any new territory.
District 7 – John Linder (Gray) – In an attempt to make sure Gwinnett County’s trend in our direction doesn’t imperil John Linder, this district loses much of Gwinnett to the 4th District (formerly the 9th), and to the new 14th. To compensate for this, it picks up small sections of North Fulton, as well as Dunwoody, from the 6th, and picks up Forsyth County, which gave McCain 79% of the vote.
District 8 – Hank Johnson (Periwinkle) – The only thing that really changes about this district, aside from the number,(it used to be the 4th), is that it no longer includes Rockdale County. Hank Johnson will be in congress for as long as he likes, assuming he learned a lesson from his predecessor and gives the Capitol Police their space.
District 9 – Phil Gingrey (Bright Blue) – This district contains a little bit more of Cobb County than it used to, and a little bit less rural territory along the Alabama border, but it is still a Republican stronghold. However, it is renumbered. (It used to be the 11th).
District 10 – OPEN (Hot Pink) – This district’s main population center is Warner Robins, a conservative city with a strong military presence. However, this district is mostly rural and is composed of Republican areas taken from the districts of Jack Kingston, Sanford Bishop, and Jim Marshall. Marshall might run here, but historically he hasn’t performed too well in the turf here that was formerly in his district. This is probably a likely pickup for the Republicans.
District 11 – John Lewis (Radioactive Green)- John Lewis’s district is still a majority-black Democratic stronghold, but it gets a new number, and some territory in Cobb County that was previously represented by David Scott.
District 12 – Paul Broun (Indigo) – Despite containing Athens, the 12th (formerly the 10th) is heavily Republican, thanks to its territory in North Georgia. Broun is safe here.
District 13 – David Scott (Salmon) – This district stays very similar in shape, but is now majority black as opposed to majority minority.
District 14 – OPEN (Greenish Brown) – This is the new district. Although it includes Rockdale County, which Obama won, and Henry County, which has been trending our way, as well as part of Gwinnett County, it also includes Walton and Barrow Counties, which are exurban and heavily Republican, as well as some heavily Republican rural areas. This district might be competitive someday, but for now it should go Republican. It wouldn’t surprise me to see former Rep. Mac Collins try and make a comeback here. Marshall could also conceivably run here, but he hasn’t done well in the section of his current district that is in this new district, and would be an underdog.
P.S. I don’t know as much about the Voting Rights Act as I should, so if you know how it might affect this map, be sure to let me know.
the old 2nd wasn’t majority white, it was plurality white, about 46% or 48% white.
Its a 51-48 state, I can’t imagine them making a 10-4 map.
I did it without the VRA, just requirements of contiguousness and equal population, and concerns over political sustainability for the Republicans. Basically, at our worst, we would have lost Barrow, Marshall, AND Bishop. And, I did it with very clean lines and “communities of interest,” you know, the same bullshit people here squawk about here. Essentially, the Savannah, Augusta, Columbus, Macon, and Athens areas all get districts to themselves.
Barrow and Kingston get put into the same district, in which Dem-leaning Chatham and Liberty are drowned out by the rural and exurban counties in SE GA.
Bishop’s district would have been cut in half vertically and instead go along the Florida border, taking up some heavily Republican areas.
Marshall’s district gets weighed down with Middle GA, rural, Republican areas.
And given the decision last term that “crossover districts” (like Barrow’s or Bishop’s) are not protected, I suspect that it might prevail in court. Democratic hopes would rest on your new 2nd being struck down as a racial gerrymander. But as such districts go, it doesn’t look terrible, so I suspect it might hold up.
Bye, bye white Democrats in Georgia.
…some Georgia Senate map this decade had a state-girdling district like your 2nd. So it’s not unprecedented.
Since 4, 12, and 14 are all R districts, would it be possible to eliminate 4’s southeastern hook into Gwinnett by rearranging precincts in north Georgia? Is that hook necessary?
Basically shoring up the Democrats somewhat (it’s pretty hard to make Marshall or Barrow any safer), and making a new, safe Republican district:
CD-01 (red) – Jack Kingston I had to displace from his district because I needed all of Savannah for Barrow’s district. It’s still safe Republican, so all he needs to do is move a bit south.
CD-02 (brown) – Sanford Bishop’s district is now a coalition district — 50.5% non-white. Should be safer to hold once he retires.
CD-03 (pink) – Lynn Westmoreland remains in a pretty similar district.
CD-04 (green) – Hank Johnson’s district, basically all of DeKalb County now. 51% black.
CD-05 (dark blue) – John Lewis, again, 51% black and pretty much all of the urban Fulton County district.
CD-06 (light blue) – Tom Price has a much more compact district now, but it includes enough of the ultra-Republican suburbs to remain safe.
CD-07 (light green) – Same for John Linder.
CD-08 (very light purple) – I tried to make Jim Marshall’s district a little more favorable to him, but it’s tough when he’s just slapped down in the middle of the state. It’s about 37% black.
CD-09 (light purple) – Nathan Deal remains in solidly-Republican northern Georgia.
CD-10 (teal) – Paul Broun, picking up some of the Republican counties of Barrow’s district.
CD-11 (magenta) – Phil Gingrey is yet another Republican in a compressed, although Republican, district.
CD-12 (yellow) – John Barrow’s district. I tried to excise some of the Republican territory and give him some more favorable counties. The district is 41% black now.
CD-13 (dark purple) – David Scott remains in the inner suburbs of Atlanta and the district remains majority (51%) black.
CD-14 (grey) – This is the new district, and it’s exurban and white enough to be pretty solidly Republican.