Swing State Project

SurveyUSA (5/17-19, likely voters, late April in parens):

Terry McAuliffe (D): 37 (38)

Brian Moran (D): 22 (22)

Creigh Deeds (D): 26 (22)

Other/Undecided: 14 (18)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Creigh Deeds (D): 40 (39)

Bob McDonnell (R): 46 (44)

Terry McAuliffe (D): 40 (39)

Bob McDonnell (R): 46 (46)

Brian Moran (D): 37 (34)

Bob McDonnell (R): 47 (46)

(MoE: ±2.4%)

Reasearch 2000 will have a new primary poll out tomorrow, and PPP will have one Friday or Saturday. They note that the three candidates are evenly split among frequent primary voters, but more casual voters lean decidedly toward McAuliffe. The primary is on June 9th.

Survey USA for WDBJ 7 in Roanoke

Survey USA polled the Virginia Governor’s race again, and with less than three weeks to go, State Senator Creigh Deeds is surging.

Terry McAuliffe leads with 37%.  Deeds is now in second with 26%.  Former Delegate Brian Moran now sits in third place with 22%.

I think this is great news.  I’m rooting for Deeds–I thought he was very impressive in the debate I saw on C-SPAN, and think that he would be the strongest challenger against Attorney General Bob McDonnell.  He’s the only candidate who gained ground since the last SUSA poll, and now leads in Central Virginia.

Being the only candidate from Southern Virginia, I think Deeds can hold our margin down there.  I think he’ll be able to run up the score in NoVA, too–at least as much as he has to.  McAuliffe still seems like a wild-card, and I don’t see Moran pulling it out.  The primary is on June 9; the general in November.

This is certainly a race to watch.

http://www.deedsforvirginia.com/

http://www.terrymcauliffe.com/

http://www.brianmoran.com/

The field isn’t even firmly set on the Republican side, but the GOP begins the open seat race to replace Democratic Gov. Brad Henry in Oklahoma with a big advantage over the two announced Democratic candidates.

Public Policy Polling (5/13-17, registered voters):

Drew Edmondson (D): 38

Mary Fallin (R): 48

Drew Edmondson (D): 39

J.C. Watts (R): 47

Jari Askins (D): 34

Mary Fallin (R): 50

Jari Askins (D): 36

J.C. Watts (R): 47

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Now, there’s still a lot of time left on the clock, but those are some pretty impressive numbers for Team Red, considering that both Askins (the sitting Lt. Governor) and AG Edmondson have been elected statewide before in their own right (Edmondson a whopping four times). While both Askins and Edmondson have some room to grow, it’s not like we’re looking at a repeat of 2002, when Henry, as a little-known state senator, stole upsets in both the primary and general elections.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

From Roll Call:

Utah Attorney General Mark Shurtleff (R) launched his 2010 primary challenge to three-term Sen. Bob Bennett (R) on Wednesday at a press conference at the Utah Capitol building.

He also sent the announcement to his supporters via Twitter.

That sure is amusing, seeing as Shurtleff screwed up his announcement a week ago by doofily blasting it around on… Twitter. Anyhow, Shurtleff is going full steam ahead here, despite speculation that he might switch over to the gubernatorial race (for which there will now be a special election in 2010, in the wake of Gov. John Huntsman accepting the ambassadorship to China).

According to Roll Call, Shurtleff claims to have an internal poll which shows a “dead heat” between him and Bennett. But the only public poll I’m aware of (a February R2K survey) showed Bennett ahead 46-20. As Crisitunity noted, though, Shurtleff may be planning on staging a coup at the state party convention, possibly rendering the primary irrelevant.

UPDATE: More on that Shurtleff internal here, and a partial memo here (PDF). It polled primary voters and convention delegates (not exactly sure how they managed to survey that second sample). Shurtleff actually did better among the former, trailing 40-37. Among delegates, Bennett led 38-31. (Hat-tip: reader SD.)

• KY-Sen: Jim Bunning’s conference calls with reporters are always good for comedy gold, and his most recent one was no exception, as he heads further off the reservation and out into Howard Beale territory: he referred to Mitch McConnell as a “control freak,” and said he’d be better off without McConnell’s endorsement. He also challenged a reporter, who’d questioned his fitness to serve, to an arm-wrestling match.

• NY-Sen-B: Another primary challenger to Kirsten Gillibrand dropped out of the race, but unlike Steve Israel’s disappearance, this one barely made a ripple in the pond. Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer said he’ll run for re-election instead, citing Barack Obama’s desire for a clear path (nothing about an actual phone call from the POTUS, though). Gillibrand is also starting to rack up endorsements from some of her former House colleagues — Maurice Hinchey and Yvette Clarke — as well as state Senate leader Malcolm Smith, Assemblyman Peter Rivera (who was one of her loudest opponents at first), and NARAL New York.

• MN-Sen: The NRSC has better places to spend its money (like trying to salvage NH-Sen, OH-Sen, and MO-Sen), but they’re giving $750,000 to help Norm Coleman with his legal bills in his prolonged fight to get back his seat (or at least keep it empty as long as possible). Meanwhile, Rasmussen now finds that Minnesotans want Coleman to concede right now, 54-41.

• MO-Sen: New (likely) entrant to the race Tom Schweich has wasted no time in lighting Rep. Roy Blunt up like a Christmas tree. Responding to Blunt’s criticisms of a one-time donation by Schweich to Claire McCaskill, Schweich referenced Blunt’s “vintage Washington-style smear campaign” and made fun of Blunt’s big poll gap against Robin Carnahan. How sad is it (for Blunt) that he’s having already playing defense against a never-elected law professor instead of Carnahan?

• UT-Sen: Bob Bennett, suddenly facing a likely primary challenge from AG Mark Shurtleff, got high-profile help from Mitt Romney, who cut a TV spot for Bennett. Bennett’s decision to spend big and spend now may be timed to encourage Shurtleff to think more about the 2010 governor’s race that also just materialized.

• MA-Sen: Harry Reid backed down today on yesterday’s comments that Ted Kennedy’s cancer is in remission and that he’ll be back in the Senate after Memorial Day. He said he’ll leave the timeline up to Kennedy and his doctors.

• OK-Sen: Tom Coburn told the Tulsa World that he’ll announce on June 1 what he’ll do with his political future. (Not sure if that’s real world June 1, or Mark Kirk June 1.)

• NY-Gov: Rasmussen takes their first look at the NY-Gov morass. No big surprises: David Paterson has 31/67 approvals. Paterson loses 58-30 to Rudy Giuliani and 47-33 to George Pataki, while Andrew Cuomo beats Giuliani 55-37 and Pataki 57-29. Meanwhile, the GOP is putting together a Plan B in the likelihood that, as recently rumored, Rudy doesn’t even show up; with Rick Lazio exciting nobody, they’re increasingly interested in Erie County Exec Chris Collins.

• WA-Gov: Yes, it’s never too early to start thinking about 2012. AG Rob McKenna, the only Republican who poses a real threat to Dems in this blue state, seems to be staffing up with an eye toward bigger electoral challenges, hiring Randy Pepple (a prominent Republican strategist) as his new chief of staff.

• TN-03: Robin Smith, Tennessee’s GOP chair, quit her job in order to focus full-time on exploring the TN-03 race (to replace the retiring Zach Wamp, running for Governor). Insiders view Smith as the likely frontrunner for the GOP nod; she faces Bradley Co. Sheriff Tim Gobble in the primary, and maybe state Sen. Bo Watson as well.

• GA-12: Another Republican is getting into the race against Rep. John Barrow in this rural Georgia district, despite Wayne Mosely’s made-up statistics that he’s one of the NRCC’s Top 3 recruits. Carl Smith is the fire chief and former city councilor of “Thunderbolt.” (Yes, it’s a real town. I checked the atlas.)

• WI-08: Rep. Steve Kagen also got another Republican challenger: Brown County Supervisor Andy Williams, who represents De Pere on the county board. Marc Savard (Door County Supervisor) is already in the race, so GOP voters will apparently think they’re choosing between an NHL player and the guy who sang “Moon River.”

• FL-AG: Bill Nelson is trying to broker a truce to avoid a three-way primary between state Sen. Dan Gelber, Rod Smith (’06 gube candidate) and state Sen. Dave Aronberg for the AG slot. This could be a pretty important downballot test for Dems here — if a Dem could win this race, they could be the star player of the farm team in Florida for quite some time. (J)

Monmouth (PDF) (5/13-18, registered voters)

Chris Christie (R): 50

Steve Lonegan (R): 32

Rick Merkt (R): 2

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Quinnipiac (5/13-18, likely voters for primary, registered voters for general, 4/22 in parens)

Chris Christie (R): 56 (46)

Steve Lonegan (R): 33 (37)

Rick Merkt (R): 2 (2)

Undecided: 9 (14)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 38 (38)

Chris Christie (R): 45 (45)

Undecided: 13 (14)

(MoE: ±2%)

After months of everyone fixating on Corzine vs. Christie, it seems like everyone has suddenly realized that there’s a competitive GOP primary and that it’s not a done deal that former US Attorney Chris Christie will win it against the race’s conservative insurgent, former Bogota mayor Steve Lonegan. In fact, Rasmussen last week gave only a 10-point lead to Christie, 39-29.

Now two more polls of the primary are out, and they give a little more breathing room to Christie; in fact, the only poll with primary trendlines, Quinnipiac, finds Christie strengthening his position from last month. Looks like the Democratic Governors’ Association plan of helping to beat Christie in the primary may not pan out, but he may be still be softened up by Lonegan’s attacks going into the general. (Or, the contrary view may be that it’s helping Christie better define himself as an acceptable moderate… although hopefully yesterday’s anti-stimulus comments can be used to debunk that.) At any rate, Corzine (like the economy, to which his fortunes seem inextricably linked) seems to have finally bottomed out, with his general election numbers exactly the same as last month and his approval numbers, though still terrible even by New Jersey standards, starting to tick back up (38/53, up from 37/54).

Yesterday was primary day in Pennsylvania and there’s really nothing to see here (except a long-term Harrisburg mayor is trounced in a primary) but there are some interesting portents for the future.  Specifically, Luke Ravenstahl and Seth Williams are long-term players in the Pennsylvania party.

Boy-Mayor Ravenstahl trounced formidable opposition to consolidate his position.  With a likely gubernatorial run by both Western Democratic poweres Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato and Auditor general Jack Wagner next year, Luke may be moving up in position and may be the last untarnished man left standing in a major position from Western PA.

Seth Williams trounced machine-supported candidate Dan McCaffery to all-but-certainly become the next Philly DA.  A few recent Philly DAs….

– Lynne Abraham — front-runner for US Attorney

– PA Chief Justice Ron Castille (R)

– Governor Rendell

– Senator Specter (R — his first switch)

 

222 of 222 Precincts Reporting

Candidate	Party	Votes	Percent
Gil Cedillo	(D)	11,244	23%
Judy Chu	(D)	15,338	32%

RESULTS: LA Times | CA Secretary of State | LA County

11:50: Calitics says Judy Chu has declared victory. 86% reporting: Chu still at 33%, Cedillo 24%, and Pleitez 14%. Betty Chu leads the GOP field, with 10%. Bring on Chu vs. Chu, in July!

11:30: With 76% reporting, it’s now Chu with 33%, Cedillo 24%, Pleitez 14%.

10:55: This isn’t over yet. With 46% reporting, Chu is at 35% and Cedillo is at 23%. Pleitez’s share is increasing too, up to 12%.

10:38: Picking up speed now; with 32% reporting, Chu leads 38% to 21%.

10:15: Ganja break at LA County is over: now we’re up to 16% reporting, with a little narrowing but still a big Chu edge, 40% to 19%.

9:30: Still nothing more to tell you about CA-32, but there’s a barnburner going on in the runoff for the Los Angeles City Attorney. Carmen Trutanich leads Jack Weiss 52-48, with 12% reporting.

8:45: We’re finally seeing some action. With 10% reporting, Judy Chu is at 42%, with Cedillo far behind with 17%. Betty Chu is in third at 13% (consolidating most of what little Republican vote exists in this district), and Pleitez is next at 8%.

8:18: We’ve still got bupkus from CA-32, but there are over 1 million votes tabulated statewide on the six ballot measures. Props 1A through 1E are all failing, mostly by greater than 40-60 margins, but Prop 1F (no pay raises for legislators if there’s a deficit) is passing with 77%.

7:52 Pacific: We’re going to be doing a half-assed liveblog of CA-32 tonight. Polls close shortly, at 8 p.m. Check back periodically for updates!

Michael Sneed of the Chicago Sun-Times says:

Sneed has learned the Merchandise Mart’s Chris Kennedy, son of the late U.S. Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, will announce next week he is running for the U.S. Senate.

Sneed has also learned Kennedy, who lives with his wife, Sheila, and four children in Kenilworth, has hired the prestigious media consultant firm AKPD [founded by Obama Senior Advisor David Axelrod] and has already shot his first TV campaign commercial. …

Kennedy commissioned a poll last month using Obama pollster John Anzalone, which Kennedy sources claim was very encouraging.

Just a word of caution: I don’t have any reason to believe this information isn’t true, but three weeks ago, a different Chicago Sun-Times columnist, Lynn Sweet, posted an item claiming Mark Kirk would run for the Senate. When that information turned out to be wrong, she edited her post without making a note of the change.

New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie apparently wants to join his party’s League of Extraordinary Gentlemen:

Transcript:

HANNITY: What do you think of some of these governors who aren’t taking some stimulus money? Governor Palin, Sanford, Bobby Jindal, Rick Perry. What do you think of that?

CHRISTIE: I think it makes sense. If they’re going to put strings on that money, then they’re going to tie your hands and make you expand programs. And not be able to have the freedom of choice that people elected you for. Then you shouldn’t take the money.

Jed Lewison (my Daily Kos colleague who pulled together this clip) observed that it seems as though Christie isn’t just defending the governors who’ve made noise about rejecting stimulus money. Rather, he’s making it sound like if he doesn’t have complete disrection to spend the funds however he wants, he’d reject the stimulus cash outright himself. That’s $2 billion he’d be spurning, including $60 million in law enforcement funds. Christie, by the way, is a former US Attorney.