Swing State Project

Yesterday the DCCC introduced its Frontline program for the 2010 electoral cycle. These are the 40 incumbents considered to be most vulnerable, who are targeted for independent expenditures as needed to keep their seats in the D column.

Not all of these incumbents will stay vulnerable; in the previous cycle, between solid Dem fundraising out of the gate and an auspicious political landscape, only 10 of the initial 34 wound up needing funding. This cycle may be a little different, though; we’re playing more defense in more Republican-leaning seats, and fighting the usual midterm tendencies to recoil against the party in power.

Here’s the list of 40; rather than listing them alphabetically, I’m listing them according to the difficulty of the district’s estimated presidential lean in 2008 (and also including each rep’s margin of victory in 2008):

District	Rep.	2008 Pres. margin	2008 House margin
AL-02	Bright	– 27	1
ID-01	Minnick	– 26	1
MS-01	Childers	– 24	11
AL-05	Griffith	– 23	4
MD-01	Kratovil	– 18	1
AZ-01	Kirkpatrick	– 10	17
PA-10	Carney	– 9	13
AZ-08	Giffords	– 6	12
AZ-05	Mitchell	– 5	10
VA-05	Perriello	– 3	0
NY-29	Massa	– 3	2
OH-16	Boccieri	– 2	11
FL-24	Kosmas	– 2	16
NY-13	McMahon	– 2	28
CO-04	Markey	– 1	12
NM-02	Teague	– 1	12
IN-09	Hill	– 1	19
PA-03	Dahlkemper	0	2
VA-02	Nye	2	5
NY-24	Arcuri	3	4
TX-23	Rodriguez	3	14
NJ-03	Adler	5	4
NH-01	Shea-Porter	6	6
MI-07	Schauer	6	2
NC-08	Kissell	6	11
FL-08	Grayson	6	4
IL-11	Halvorson	8	24
OH-15	Kilroy	9	1
CA-11	McNerney	9	11
WI-08	Kagen	9	8
IA-03	Boswell	10	14
OR-05	Schrader	11	16
OH-01	Driehaus	11	5
IL-14	Foster	11	15
NV-03	Titus	12	5
NY-25	Maffei	13	13
MI-09	Peters	13	10
VA-11	Connolly	15	12
CT-04	Himes	20	4
NM-01	Heinrich	20	11

Take a moment to compare this with the House Vulnerability Index that we compiled last month. Pretty solid overlap: 18 of the 20 on the Index are also in the Frontline program. The two who aren’t are Chet Edwards, who’s well ensconced in his bright-red district, and Jim Marshall, who seems to finally be getting settled after a number of rocky cycles.

Note, also, the large number of sophomores who quickly locked down their iffy districts and have already graduated from their training wheels: Brad Ellsworth, Heath Shuler, Jason Altmire, John Yarmuth, John Hall, and Zack Space, among others. (Also observe who got the training wheels slapped back on: Mike Arcuri and the perpetually tottering Leonard Boswell.)

Who’s in the reddest districts without needing Frontline help? It’s all long-time representatives from the Blue Doggish end of the party, starting with Gene Taylor (36-pt McCain margin) and Chet Edwards (35). The rest of the top 10 includes some Tennessee and Arkansas reps who watched their previously safe districts fall out from under them, at least at the presidential level:  Dan Boren (32), Lincoln Davis (30), Bart Gordon (25), Charlie Melancon (24), Ike Skelton (23), Marion Berry (21), Mike Ross (19), and Rick Boucher (19).

And who had the narrowest margins in their own House races, without requiring Frontline help? Top of the list is Paul Kanjorski, who most people seemed to have left for dead and who escaped with a 3-point victory; apparently, the consensus seems to be that he was uniquely vulnerable to Lou Barletta and there aren’t any other threats on PA-11’s GOP bench. Following him are Chet Edwards (8), Ron Klein (9), Chellie Pingree (10), Jason Altmire (12), Jim Marshall (14), Paul Hodes (15), John Murtha (16), Dennis Moore (17), and Tim Bishop (17).

Finally, not to be outdone, the NRCC is about to roll out its counterpart, the “Patriots” program. (Apparently they don’t feel so sanguine as to call it ROMP, or Regain our Majority Program, any more.) No word on who the recipients are yet. One key difference seems to be while Frontline offers a lot of carrots, the Patriots program seems to involve a whole lot of stick:

As one Republican source put it Monday, the effort is also designed to “end the welfare state that the NRCC has become over the past six to eight years” by setting strict benchmarks for Members and adding one big stick to the process. Namely, those candidates who aren’t working to help themselves will be cut off from NRCC financial assistance.

Things could get interesting for U.S. Senate incumbents of both parties in 2010, especially with the Democratic majority again seeking a fillibuster proof 60 seats. With 37 races on the ballot, about 20 of them, in my opinion, present opportunities for exciting matchups and electoral fireworks!  The list below presents these potential races.  These are merely predictions and not set races for 2010.

1. Alaska – Murkowski (R) v. Knowles (D).  Murkowski also faces a challenge from Palin in the GOP primary

2. California – Boxer (R) v. Schwarzenegger (R).  Assuming Schwarzenegger survives a likely GOP primary fight from the right of his own party.

3. Arizona – McCain (R) v. Napolitano (D). Would the popular former Governor be willing to abandon Homeland Security for the Senate, especially against a high profile incument?

4. North Dakota – Dorgan (D) v. Hoeven (R).  Dorgan’s a Democrat in a red state.  Could he survive such a matchup?

5. South Dakota – Thune (R) v. Herseth-Sandlin (D).  Democrats have been out for revenge since Thune narrowly took out Daschle in 2004.

6. Oklahoma – Coburn (R) v. Henry (D)

7. Iowa – Grassley (R) v. Vilsack (D).  Would Vilsack be willing to give up Agriculture for the U.S. Senate against a Senate fixture?  

8. Missouri – Carnahan (D) v. Blunt (R). An open seat always presents fireworks and an influx of cash from either party.  Can Carnahan transform name recognition and a recent Democratic lean in the state into a Senate seat?  

9. Arkansas – Lincoln (D) v. Huckabee (R). Could Huckabee become only the second Arkansas Republican in the Senate since Reconstruction?  

10. Wisconsin – Feingold (D) v. Thompson (R).

11. Indiana – Bayh (D) v. Pence (R).  As Republican Conference Leader in the House, Pence has a huge public profile, but will he be willing to give it up for a shot at the Senate or wait to take on the aging Dick Lugar in 2012?

12. Kentucky – Bunning (R) v. Mongiardo (D).  Mongiardo lost in 2004 by only 2 points. Bunning’s recent comments regarding Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s cancer, concerns about his mental fitness for the job, low poll ratings, and the lack of Bush on the ballot this year make this potential rematch a likely Democratic pickup.

13. Florida – If the 2000 Presidential race here had you sweating bullets, the 2010 Senate race for the open seat is bound to be just as close.  Possible Republicans include popular GOP Rep. Connie Mack and current Gov. Charlie Crist.  Democrats eyeing the seat might include Reps. Kendrick Meek and Debbie Wasserman Schultz – both young and media savy.

14. South Carolina – Graham (R) v. Clyburn (D).  Would Clyburn be willing to abandon House Majority Whip for the Senate?  

15. Maryland – Mikulski (D) v. Steele (R).  Steele just won GOP chair and was a popular Lt. Gov.  But if he couldn’t win for the GOP against Cardin in 2004, his odds are long in this solidly Democratic state.  

16. Delaware – Is this seat being held for Beau Biden?  Survey says – probably so!

17. New York – The big question isn’t will Gillibrand make it to the general election, but will she survive the primary.  In a liberal state with an anti-gun swing, odds are she won’t.  Even if Long Island Rep. Peter King were to run, this seat is probably safe for the Democrats – probably a current House member from downstate.  

18. Connecticut – Dodd (D) v. Rell (R).  New England has solidified as a Democratic base and Rell is popular.  Angst over Dodd’s role as chair of Senate Banking could present some roadbumps, otherwise Dodd should be OK.  

19. Vermont – Leahy (D) v. Douglas (R).  Governors in Vermont serve only 2 years so Douglas would face a challenge with two races against a popular incumbent and a high profile one as Judiciary chairman.

20. New Hampshire – like Vermont, Governors in New Hampshire serve only 2 years.  However, John Lynch is highly popular in a state that’s been trending bluer over the past few election cycles. With this seat open, it’s a free for all.  

21. Hawaii – Inouye (D) v. Lingle (R).  Little Hawaii way out in the Pacific gets little play in national elections.  It’s solidly Democratic, so much so it’s taken for granted.  Inouye (D) has been in the Senate since 1962 and may ultimately retire.  Lingle’s a popular Gov. who may make this one a fight; even more so if Inouye retires.  

With the 2008 elections just over and President Obama inaugurated, it’s never to early to turn our attention to the next big electoral cycle in U.S. politics – the 2010 congressional midterms.  Democrats currently have a majority of 56 seats, Republicans hold 41 seats, two seats are held by Independents (Lieberman and Sanders), and one seat – the Class II seat from Minnesota – remains vacant.  

2010 will be a Class III cycle featuring 14 incumbent Republicans seeking reelection along with 13 Democrats.  Six seats will be open (Missouri, Illinois, Ohio, Kansas, Florida, and New Hampshire).  One Senator (Michael Bennet of Colorado) will be seeking his first full term after having been appointed to an unexpired term in 2009.  Two seats for unexpired terms (a Class I seat in New York and a Class II seat in Delaware) will also be on the ballot.  

Solid Democratic Senators, I am predicting, include: Patty Murray in Washington and Harry Reid in Nevada.  Likely Democratic Senators, I am predicting, include: Boxer, Dorgan, Lincoln, Feingold, Bayh, Mikulski, Schumer, Dodd, Leahy, and Inouye.  Solid Republican Senators, I am predicting include: Crapo, Bennett, Shelby, and Isakson.  Likely Republican Senators, I am predicting, include Murkowski, McCain, Thune, Coburn, Grassley, and Graham.  My only lean Republican prediction is Specter.  

My tossups among Senate incumbents include Vitter, Bunning, and Burr.  

After weeks of “not knowing” whether Jim Bunning should run for re-election, and after meeting with a potential primary challenger, NRSC Chair John Cornyn is finally endorsing the embattled Kentucky Senator.

WaPo:

As for that meeting with Williams at the NRSC Friday, NRSC Chairman John Cornyn (Texas) told Capitol Briefing today that it was just “a courtesy visit.”

“Just to clear up any potential confusion, the NRSC supports Sen. Bunning,” Cornyn said, adding that the committee would back Bunning in a contested primary, just as it does as a rule with all of its incumbents.

Cornyn said he was aware of chatter that some Republicans might want Bunning to retire. “My position is that this is Sen. Bunning’s decision to make, and as long as he says he is running I will be supportive of him,” Cornyn said.

I guess he decided that continuing to kneecap the stubborn sumbitch was no longer in the GOP’s best interests. Go figure.

Discussion already underway in JFM110’s diary.

UPDATE: This is too brilliant:

If Republican campaign organizations tried to recruit another candidate to run in Bunning’s stead, “I would have a suit against the (National Republican Senatorial Committee) if they did that,” Bunning told reporters on Tuesday. “In their bylaws, support of the incumbents is the only reason they exist.” […]

“I don’t believe anything Cornyn says… I’ve had miscommunications with John Cornyn from first week of this session,” Bunning said. “The NRSC never helped me last time and they’re probably not going to help me this time.

(Hat-tip: LeftistAddiction)

Uh, why?

From Politico:

A noteworthy development in the Kentucky Senate race: National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman John Cornyn said — for the first time — that the committee will be endorsing Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.), if he runs for re-election.

Cornyn told the Washington Post’s Ben Pershing yesterday that Bunning has the full support of the committee.

“As long as he is running, I will be supportive of him,” Cornyn told the Post.

Full story: http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

The question in my mind is, how much pull does the NRSC have anymore – especially in relation to a whole lot of exasperated Kentuckians? I guess we can only hope and pray that its enough to drag his sorry butt across the finish line in the primary.

After weeks of dribs and drabs of revelations that his stumbling upon the Illinois senate seat wasn’t so innocuous after all, the question was starting to become whether Roland Burris would survive the end of the month, not whether he’d be able to win re-election. Today, Burris will announce that he’s splitting the difference: he won’t resign, but he won’t run for re-election either.

This may not change the 2010 calculus that much; Jan Schakowsky and Alexi Giannoulis were probably going to run in the Democratic primary whether or not Burris was there; the main question was whether Burris could sneak through the primary based on African-American support and a split liberal vote. At any rate, it gives Burris a graceful (or at least less graceless) way to ride off into the sunset and carve another line on his mausoleum.

Also, Pat Quinn, who took over as governor in the wake of Rod Blagojevich and who was one of the first to call for Burris to resign, announced that he will be running for re-election in 2010.

“I have no reason not to run,” Quinn told me when I asked him about the 2010 election. “I think I am doing a good job today. I anticipate I will continue to do that. Stabilizing the ship of Illinois is vitally necessary. I think even in the first three-and-a-half weeks we’ve done a decent job of turning a page in an unhappy chapter in the state’s history.”

By getting out in front of the Blago blowback, Quinn seems to have stabilized his situation and there doesn’t seem to be any discussion of primary competition for him (yet).

UPDATE by Jimmy Hell: Now Camp Burris is denying everything, saying that no 2010 decisions have been made.

This could be truly delightful if it pans out:

Well-placed sources close to former US Senator Bob Smith (R) tell Politics1 that Smith has shifted away from his earlier plan to run for US Senate in Florida, where he has lived for the past few years. Instead, Smith – who has maintained a home in New Hampshire – now plans to return to the Granite State and run for US Senate in the GOP primary next year if former US Senator John Sununu Jr. runs for Judd Gregg’s open seat. One of Smith’s consultants, who asked not too be named, said Smith will emphasize his pro-gun rights, pro-life and pro-environment stances against Sununu. Smith lost for renomination to Sununu in the bitter 2002 primary, so part of Smith’s motiviation for running against Sununu would be to inflict as much political damage as possible on Sununu.

If these sources are telling the truth, then Smith wants to get in purely out of spite – and wants the world to know it. It’s a motive straight out of a Seinfeld episode. Dean Barker explains just how fantastic this could be for Team Blue:

1) Bob Smith, by virtue of what was done to him by Sununu in 2002, is not beholden to the Sununu-Sununu lockdown on the Senate nomination.  So while all the other NHGOPers are not preparing and raising money while they wait for John E. to make up his mind, Smith can walk right in and blow this holding pattern to… smithereens (sorry; couldn’t resist).  This, in turn, gives the green light to others to go in too, despite the first and last name of the NHGOP Chair. “Well, if there’s going to be a primary regardless, etc….”

2) A Smith-Sununu contest would be incredibly confusing on the issues for the right, and has the potential to be very divisive.  Sununu is tied and bound to the Bush years, anti-choice, doesn’t really focus much on guns, and doesn’t believe in anthropogenic climate change.  Smith is not tied to the Bush years, more progressive on environmental issues, but more openly conservative on others, especially social issues like abortion and guns.  Confusing!

More at the link, and some Blue Hampshire commenters worry that this could, perversely, help Sununu. I just don’t see it, especially with New Hampshire’s very late (September) primary. This really could be quite a lot of fun.