Swing State Project

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (2/16-18, registered voters):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 53

Dave Reichert (R): 40

Patty Murray (D-inc): 55

Rob McKenna (R): 39

(MoE: ±4%)

Research 2000 takes a look at the 2010 Washington Senate race for Daily Kos, and there’s really not much to see here. Patty Murray wins easily against two of the few Republicans that people in Washington actually like, Rep. Dave Reichert and Attorney General Rob McKenna. But neither of them have given any indication of running for the Senate, and if either of them had any urges, this poll is likely to squelch those.

McKenna has his sights set on the 2012 gubernatorial race (which will presumably be an open seat), while Reichert is (as I’ve talked about at length) the GOP’s only hope of holding onto the Democratic-leaning WA-08 and the state GOP won’t want to sacrifice him for a longshot bid against Murray. With Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers climbing the House leadership ladder and Dino Rossi having seen the extinction of his career, there just aren’t any top-tier elected GOPers in the state to make this race.

Expect them to take the route they took in 2006 with Mike! McGavick and pick some super-wealthy self-funder you’ve never heard of, who won’t break 40% but will at least be able to pay for his own funeral. (It’s been long-threatened, but it may finally be John Stanton‘s turn in the dunk tank.)

All races are always winnable. It’s just that sometimes, they are only winnable by one side.

Article: http://www.bayoubuzz.com/News/…

Papers have been filed with the Office of the Louisiana Secretary of State which started the process requiring sufficient signatures to force a recall election for the office held by Representative Cao.

What is a recall election?  As many people may remember, the recent recall election in California that can be summed up as a clusterf*** of a race.  You can see a picture of the ballot here: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wi…

Of the 135 candidates, notable ones include: Tom McClintock, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Cruz Bustamente, Gary Coleman, Larry Flynt, Arianna Huffington, etc.  

One elected official, State Representative Juan A. LaFonta, Democrat of District 96 told Bayoubuzz that he does not know about the existence of the petition but that he would sign it.  

“We don’t need Cao to be Steve Scalise”, said LaFonta.  Scalise is a Republican who represents a neighboring conservative Congressional District.  “People are starving and Cao needs to represent the people of the district”, LaFonta said.

The group of ministers who filed the petition want to make sure that he faces a recall which could be a very daunting act, if not impossible act in Louisiana based upon the state’s history.

So what are the rules for a recall election in Louisiana and what is the likelihood of a recall election?  First, you have 180 days to get 33% of signatures of voters in the district.  A high bar, to say the least.  

Two local African-American Ministers have launched a recall petition against newly elected Second District Congressman Anh “Joseph” Cao that already reportedly has over 12,000 signatures in its first week.   Rev. Toris Young, President of the Louisiana Ministerial Alliance of Churches for All Peoples, has joined with his fellow Minister Aubry Wallace to attempt to obtain the verified signatures of more than 101,000 registered voters in the 2nd District, more than a third of the registered electorate, in just 180 days.

Link: http://www.bayoubuzz.com/News/…

12,000 signatures in 7 days is a pace that can succeed, but can the religious and political leaders in the district maintain such a vigorous pace?  Time will tell. (Original H/T to DK but I looked up the CA ballot and Louisiana law myself)  

RNC chair Michael Steele, in an interview with the Washington Times:

“We want to convey that the modern-day GOP looks like the conservative party that stands on principles,” Steele told the Washington Times. “But we want to apply them to urban-suburban hip-hop settings.”

“It will be avant garde, technically,” he said of the new public relations team he’s signing on. “It will come to the table with things that will surprise everyone – off the hook.” He also added: “I don’t do ‘cutting-edge.’ That’s what Democrats are doing. We’re going beyond cutting-edge.”

Simpsons episode 4F12, “The Itchy and Scratchy and Poochie Show:”

EXECUTIVE

(pause) We at the network want a dog with attitude. He’s edgy, he’s “in your face.” You’ve heard the expression “let’s get busy”? Well, this is a dog who gets “biz-zay!” Consistently and thoroughly.

KRUSTY

So he’s proactive, huh?

EXECUTIVE

Oh, God, yes. We’re talking about a totally outrageous paradigm.

MEYER

Excuse me, but “proactive” and “paradigm”? Aren’t these just buzzwords that dumb people use to sound important? Not that I’m accusing you of anything like that. I’m fired, aren’t I?

MEYERS

No, no, no! He was supposed to have attitude.

SILVERMAN

Um… wh-what do you mean, exactly?

MEYERS

Oh, you know, attitude, attitude! Uh… sunglasses!

EXECUTIVE

Can we put him in more of a “hip-hop” context?

KRUSTY

Forget context, he’s gotta be a surfer. Give me a nice shmear of surfer.

EXECUTIVE

I feel we should rastafy him by … ten percent or so.

LOL!  At first glance I thought this had to be some sort of snark.  It’s actually not.

Michael Steele deathwatch time yet?

http://politicalticker.blogs.c…

Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele says his party is going to launch an “off the hook” public relations campaign that will update the GOP’s image by translating it to “urban-suburban hip-hop settings.”

The new GOP leader told the Washington Times that the party’s defeat in states such as North Carolina and Virginia made it clear they needed a new approach.

“We need messengers to really capture that region – young, Hispanic, black, a cross section…” he said in an interview published Thursday. “We want to convey that the modern-day GOP looks like the conservative party that stands on principles. But we want to apply them to urban-surburban hip-hop settings.”

He added, jokingly, that “we need to uptick our image with everyone, including one-armed midgets.”

Steele described the new multi-platform PR offensive as “avant-garde, technically. It will come to [the] table with things that will surprise everyone – off the hook.” Asked whether that meant cutting-edge tactics, Steele demurred. “I don’t do ‘cutting-edge,'” he said. “That’s what Democrats are doing. We’re going beyond cutting-edge.”

Steele, who began a massive personnel overhaul at the RNC shortly after his election, said he has started meeting weekly with congressional Republicans. He said he’ll be gathering input from House and Senate leaders, not giving instructions – but he criticized national Republican leadership’s focus on party unity as a top priority, saying the failure to devote itself instead to developing fresh faces had cost the GOP.

“We missed the mark in the past, which is why we are in the crapper now,” he said. “We had the White House, the Senate and the House and were not building a farm team over the last years. We could have been ahead of Democrats and their 50-state strategy.”

Steele dismissed the assessments of some Republicans that he needs a deputy to handle areas like logistics, fundraising and candidate recruitment. “I can run this organization just fine,” he said. “There will be no deputy chairman, period. …People who said I can’t make the trains run on time never gave a reason. I say to them, ‘Stuff it.’

“I am not afraid of being held accountable for my leadership,” he said. “The idea I am somehow going to handicap myself before I begin is nuts. I am not going to buy into this mind-set among a few people who probably have never run anything but their mouths.”

Steele defeated a crowded field last month, including sitting RNC chairman Mike Duncan, to claim the party’s top spot.

The short version, which is all I have time for: David Paterson under water in New York, according to SUSA’s latest tracking poll.

By 2:1 Margin, New York Disapproves of Paterson Performance as Governor: 66% of New York State adults today say they disapprove of the job performance of Governor David Paterson

[. . .]

One month ago, 54% of New York adults approved of Paterson’s performance as Governor.

This could just be a one time polling error, but given some of the other polling we’ve seen out of New York recently, I’m inclined to think that it’s the real deal. Bizarre tax/budget schemes and the Senate appointment process appear to have done deep damage to New York’s Governor.  

Quinnipiac University tested several different segments and scenarios in FL-Sen. Here they are (2/11-16, registered voters, 1/21 in parens):

Dem primary:

Pam Iorio: 16

Kendrick Meek: 16

Ron Klein: 14

Dan Gelber: 5

Other: 2

Wouldn’t Vote: 4

Undecided: 43

(MoE: ±5.1%)

GOP primary without Crist:

Connie Mack: 34

Vern Buchanan: 11

Marco Rubio: 6

Allan Bense: 4

Other: 2

Wouldn’t Vote: 5

Undecided: 38

(MoE: ±4.7)

GOP primary with Crist:

Charlie Crist: 53

Connie Mack: 13

Vern Buchanan: 5

Marco Rubio: 3

Allan Bense: 2

Other: 2

Wouldn’t Vote: 1

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±4.7)

Crist vs. generic D:

Democrat: 25 (27)

Charlie Crist (R): 48 (47)

Undecided: 27 (27)

(MoE: ±3.1)

Since you probably want a scorecard:

State Sen. Dan Gelber (Miami area)

Mayor Pam Iorio (Tampa)

Rep. Ron Klein (FL-22)

Rep. Kendrick Meek (FL-17)

Former state House Speaker Allan Bense (Panama City area)

Rep. Vern Buchanan (FL-13)

Rep. Connie Mack IV (FL-14)

Former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (Miami area)

And of course, Gov. Charlie Crist needs no introduction. The only people on this list who have actually announced, though, are Meek and Gelber – the field is very much in flux. (North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns has also jumped in on the Dem side, but he wasn’t tested.) Anyhow, I only have two quick comments:

1) Yes, I realize that Connie Mack (aka Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV) is fortunate, politically speaking, to share the exact same name as his famous father, who was a US Senator until 2001. But wasn’t it a bit much for Quinnipiac to prod respondents by wording their question like so: “Is your opinion of Congressman Connie Mack IV, son of former United States Senator Connie Mack, favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?” I think that partly explains his unusually high numbers.

2) Crist looks like he’s riding tall right now in the Republican primary, but a colleague of mine well-versed in Florida politics has me convinced that Crist’s apostasy will guarantee him a fierce challenge from the right. His cheerleading for the stimulus – which the GOP standard-bearers have insanely decided to turn into the ultimate conservative litmus test – is just Exhibit A on his list of sins. We’ll see if the wingnuts can really make him feel pain, or if they’ll just have to suck it up and (gasp!) support someone electable. Obviously, we’re rooting for option one.

(Hat-tip: Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire)

Looks like we can soon dust off those Sparksmania stickers…

Alabama Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks is moving closer to a decision on which statewide office he’ll seek in 2010.

Sparks, a Democrat, said he has narrowed his options to the races for governor or lieutenant governor. He said he plans to announce his choice by mid-March.

“If I could run for ag commissioner again, I’d do it,” said Sparks, who is term-limited from running for re-election to that post. “But I do have a desire to continue serving the people of this state.”

Sparks apparently won’t wait on Lt. Gov. Jim Folsom to tip his hand. Folsom, also a Democrat, is expected to enter the 2010 race to replace Gov. Bob Riley. U.S. Rep. Artur Davis, D-Birmingham, announced his candidacy earlier this month.

Sparks ruled out speculation that he might challenge U.S. Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Tuscaloosa, who is up for re-election in 2010. Shelby’s campaign war chest – currently at more than $13 million – and his Senate seniority give him an overwhelming advantage over any potential challengers.

Brace yourselves.

The Hill:

Rep. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) will announce his candidacy for Senate on Thursday, sources close to Blunt have confirmed.

Blunt has been expected to enter the 2010 race for weeks. His candidacy sets up a potential clash of the families in Missouri, as Secretary of State Robin Carnahan has entered the race on the Democratic side.

If Blunt, the father of unpopular ex-Gov. Matt Blunt, is the best the GOP can come up with here, then I like our chances with Carnahan. But like any statewide Missouri race in recent history, I would expect this to be closely-fought, and the early polling agrees.

However, primaries are still a distinct possibility here — state Treasurer Sarah Steelman is still contemplating a run on the Republican side, and 1st CD Rep. Lacy Clay is still “weighing his options” for the Democratic nomination.

Open seat fans shouldn’t get too excited about Blunt’s 7th CD — Obama lost the district by a 63-35 margin last November, only a slight improvement from John Kerry’s 67-32 beatdown four years earlier.

Very disappointing:

President Obama has settled on Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, a key ally with a record of working across party lines, as his top choice for secretary of health and human services, advisers said Wednesday. […]

It remained unclear whether the White House would finish vetting Ms. Sebelius in time to finalize her nomination by next week. Advisers described her as “the leading candidate” and said there were no others to mention, although they emphasized no final decision has been made. After the troubles with Mr. Daschle and other recent nominees, the White House has intensified its vetting to make sure it thoroughly scrubs its choices before Mr. Obama gives the final signoff.

Assuming Sebelius is nominated and accepts the gig (and you would think she would have publicly declined by now if she were not willing to serve), Democrats will have a pretty barren shelf of possible candidates for the state’s open Senate race in 2010. What a bummer.

SSP currently has this race on our list of Races to Watch, but it’s hard to see how this contest heats up without the presence of Sebelius.