Swing State Project

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (1/26-28, likely voters):

Roland Burris (D-inc): 37

Mark Kirk (R): 30

Roland Burris (D-inc): 38

Peter Roskam (R): 25

Jan Schakowsky (D): 36

Mark Kirk (R): 30

Jan Schakowsky (D): 37

Peter Roskam (R): 25

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 38

Mark Kirk (R): 30

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 38

Peter Roskam (R): 25

(MoE: ±4%)

Roland Burris (D-inc): 26

Jan Schakowsky (D): 12

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 11

Undecided: 51

Mark Kirk (R): 27

Peter Roskam (R): 17

Undecided: 56

(MoE: ±5%)

This poll ought to be a palliative for those people worried that the blowback from Rod Blagojevich’s attempt to sell the Illinois Senate seat (and his subsequent impeachment), and Roland Burris’s enthusiasm to occupy said tainted seat, mean that the Republicans are in prime position to take over the seat in 2010. There are a lot of undecideds, obviously, but even up against the Illinois GOP’s top tier (Reps. Mark Kirk and Peter Roskam), Burris looks to be in the driver’s seat. Considering the terrible optics of accepting Blago’s appointment, Burris’s favorability isn’t that bad; his favorable/unfavorable is 35/35.

In the general, though, Burris fares really no better or worse than any of the other Democrats interested in mounting a primary challenge to him in 2010. Rep. Jan Schakowsky and state treasurer Alexi Giannoulias put up very similar numbers, indicating that Illinoisians are retaining their Dem leanings and are capable of separating Blagojevich’s spate of increasingly appalling actions from the Democratic brand in general. Tellingly, both Kirk and Roskam have negative favorability (37/41 for Kirk and 19/23 for the little-known Roskam), suggesting that voters’ dislike for them may have a lot to do with the “R” after their names.

The Democratic primary also sees the voters in a wait-and-see mode. Burris, on the strength of a month’s worth of media saturation, has an edge. But at only 26%, it can’t be seen as a clear path to victory at this point, especially with Schakowsky probably being labor’s and EMILY’s List’s candidate, and Giannoulias bringing his own powerful connections with him.

Michael Barone used to be a respected political analyst once upon a time. As editor of the Almanac of American Politics and a ubiquitous presence inside the Beltway, his was a prime shaper of narratives. But over the last decade and a half, Barone’s sharp lurch to the right has slowly destroyed his credibility, as Mark Schmitt ably documents in this terrific takedown.

But DC being what it is, Barone still gets listened to – which means he’s still a worthy target of our derision. Thankfully, he makes the task very, very easy. Dave Weigel has helpfully dug up a true Barone gem from just four years ago – and I really do mean gem. Almost every sentence in the piece was either wrong when it was written or quickly became wrong soon after. To give you a sense, here’s the sentence Weigel pulled his quote from:

[T]he 2004 presidential election results tell us that Republicans are in even stronger shape than their 55-45 and 232-203 Senate and House margins suggest.

When you see a line like that, you just have to click the link because you know the whole piece is going to be awesome. And it is. The piece just gets better and better. The next graf:

Start with the Senate. George W. Bush carried 31 states that elect 62 senators. There are nine Republican senators from Kerry states and 16 Democratic senators from Bush states. Many of these are from states that were close in the presidential election. But there are 11 Democrats and only three Republicans from states where their presidential nominee got less than 47 percent of the vote. There are more Democrats with political incentives to vote with Bush than there are Republicans with incentives to vote against him.

Didn’t quite work out that way, did it?

As for the House, we now know which presidential candidate carried each of the 435 congressional districts, thanks to Polidata, which crunched the numbers for National Journal and the Almanac of American Politics (of which I am co-author). These numbers surprised even some political pros. Bush carried 255 districts and John Kerry only 180. In all, 41 Democrats represent Bush districts and 18 Republicans represent Kerry districts. Eliminating the districts where the House member’s presidential candidate won 47 percent or more, we find only five Republicans in strong Kerry districts but 30 Democrats in strong Bush districts.

What a disaster that turned out to be for Dems! But here’s the real money shot:

The implications? In the long run, Republicans are well positioned to increase their numbers in both the Senate and the House. Some Democrats hold seats because of personal popularity or moderate voting records. But when they retire, Republicans may well succeed them. In the short run, very few Republicans run great political risks by supporting Bush. Significantly more Democrats run great political risks by opposing him. Obstruction doesn’t work well for Democrats in Bush seats: Just ask former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle. And at the moment, on Social Security, as Democrats Stan Greenberg and James Carville wrote last month, “Voters are looking for reform, change and new ideas, but Democrats seem stuck in concrete.”

I started to put various chortle-worthy parts of this paragraph in boldface but I had stop because the whole thing was becoming a mess of HTML tags. In any event, we should be quite glad that the Republicans listened to Barone and the Dems ignored Carville. (To show you how stupidly off-base the concern trolling was over Democrats’ “position” on Social Security in 2005, read this article and enjoy a laugh.)

Sadly, as I said at the outset, some people still take this bungler seriously. But fortunately, it’s fewer every year. And so I bring Barone’s column to you and the world as a public service – a reminder that if you aren’t busy tuning him out, at the very least, believe the opposite of whatever he says.

The Senate overwhelmingly passed the S-CHIP reauthorization and expansion today, 66-32. All of the nays were Republicans. Here’s a roll call of the GOP crumb-bums up for re-election in 2010:

Bennett (R-UT)

Bunning (R-KY)

Burr (R-NC)

Coburn (R-OK)

Crapo (R-ID)

DeMint (R-SC)

Grassley (R-IA)

Gregg (R-NH)

Isakson (R-GA)

McCain (R-AZ)

Shelby (R-AL)

Vitter (R-LA)

Never will you find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy. Fortunately, though, quite a few of these troglodytes are vulnerable or are weighing retirement: Bunning, Burr, Grassley, Gregg & Vitter. I look forward to seeing them all get bashed over the head with their callous cruelty toward children. They deserve it.

Marist

611 Registered Voters

MoE +/- 4%

Gillibrand (D-Inc.) 49%

King (R) 24%

The poll was taken on January 26th, 2009

http://www.maristpoll.marist.e…

Gillibrand looks set for re-election.  King will need to think he has a hell of a case to  make to New York voters if he is going to put himself out there and run.  

Buchanan met with National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman John Cornyn yesterday to discuss a potential Senate campaign, and was escorted by the retiring Sen. Mel Martinez.  

Buchanan’s biggest asset is his personal wealth: When he first ran for the House in 2006, he spent $5.45 million of his own money into the race.  He would be able to, at least partially, self-finance a Senate campaign.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

With people expecting Rubio and Mack to run, this could throw a wrench in the mix.  It could open up some hot territory for Democrats, seeing as FL-13 is only R+4, if third parties don’t plague our chances.    

Roll Call:

Tennessee Rep. Lincoln Davis (D) closed the door Thursday evening on the possibility of making a gubernatorial run in 2010, a move he had been considering.

In a statement, Davis cited his recent appointment to the Appropriations Committee as a key reason behind his decision.

At the very least, this means that Republicans won’t get to take an easy crack at Davis’ conservative TN-04 CD — its old PVI was R+3, but Obama absolutely cratered in the district, taking only 34% of the vote, compared to 41% for John Kerry in 2004 and a remarkable 49% for Al Gore in 2000.

With Davis keeping his perch in the House, the field is now clear for… well, Harold Ford, Jr., I guess. Another possible name who may be convinced to take a crack at the race is state Sen. Andy Berke.

Holy shit if true:

The Obama administration has been floating the idea of naming Republican Sen. Judd Gregg (N.H.) to be Commerce Secretary, several Senate sources said Thursday.

The sources, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said Gregg’s nomination was far from a done deal, but remains a serious possibility. Reached by phone, Gregg, the top Republican on the Senate Budget Committee, said he had no comment on whether he has been in talks with the White House about the post.

At first glance, this move might seem like TEH AWESOME – 60 SEATS0Rz! But believe it or not, I think this is actually bad for a lot of reasons. On the merits, Gregg is a conservative Republican – hardly the kind of guy I want running an important cabinet department. Of course, that’s neither here nor there for the purposes of SSP.

But electorally, it also troubles me. Gov. John Lynch would get to fill the vacancy, and he is very untrustworthy when it comes to matters of partisanship. He’s said ten times as many nice things about John McCain as he has about any Democrat. He’s regularly undermined Dems seeking elective office in New Hampshire, more than once supporting their Republican rivals (like GOP state Sen. Bob Odell). He’s just really not much a Dem.

In short, if there is any sitting Dem governor who might appoint a Republican in circumstances like this, it’s Lynch. At the very least, I think there’s almost no way he’d appoint Paul Hodes, who is our strongest candidate and a proud progressive. Lynch would very likely appoint a wishy-washy Lieberdem, perhaps even 2004 Lieberman national co-chair Katrina Swett (who briefly ran for Sununu’s seat last cycle).

These rumors may well amount to nothing. And even if they do pan out, Lynch could surprise us with a good pick, who with Franken would give us 60 seats in the Senate. But I don’t think the odds of that are high, and really, I’m not loving this.

UPDATE: As Populista points out, though, if this helps us pass the Employee Free Choice Act, then it’s worth it.

Bye-bye, Blago:

Gov. Rod Blagojevich was unanimously convicted at his impeachment trial and thrown out of office Thursday, ending a nearly two-month crisis that erupted with his arrest on charges he tried to sell Barack Obama’s vacant Senate seat. Blagojevich becomes the first U.S. governor in more than 20 years to be removed by impeachment.

After a four-day trial, the Illinois Senate voted 59-0 to convict him of abuse of power, automatically removing the second-term Democrat. Democratic Lt. Gov. Patrick Quinn, one of his critics, immediately became governor.

In a second 59-0 vote, the Senate further barred Blagojevich from ever holding public office in Illinois again.

“We have this thing called impeachment and it’s bleeping golden and we’ve used it the right way,” Democratic state Sen. James Meeks of Chicago said during the debate, mocking Blagojevich’s expletive-laden words as captured by the FBI on a wiretap.

We are the Governor of Illinois.

God bless Bill “Brain Fade” Sali. He’s aiming for a comeback:

Republican former congressman Bill Sali is preparing for a rematch against Democratic Rep. Walt Minnick in 2010.

Sali filed a statement of candidacy Monday with the Federal Election Commission, taking on the same “Sali for Congress” name he used in his 2006 and 2008 campaigns.

But Sali isn’t the only Republican who may take a crack at his old seat. The Idaho Statesman reports that state Sen. John McGee, former state Controller Keith Johnson, and Attorney General Lawrence Wasden are all mulling the race. Bill Sali’s best bet may be for all of them to jump in, allowing him to squeak through with a bare plurality — much like his ’06 primary win, when he gobbled up just 26% of the vote to earn his party’s nomination.

I have to wonder: will the Club For Growth stand by their man this time?

UPDATE (David): Let me add that Mustang Sali still owes about $125K in various debts. This was a serious problem for him last cycle – stiffing vendors in the small world of Idaho politics is a sure way to make enemies, one of the few things Sali is actually really good at. Continuing to stiff folks is an even surer way of getting your asses handed to you.

Roll Call:

Orthopedic surgeon and retired Army Lt. Col. Wayne Mosley (R) will make the Congressional bid in 2010 that many Republicans had hoped he’d make in 2008.

Mosley had been talked up in GOP circles in the previous cycle as the best candidate against Rep. John Barrow (D) in the eastern Georgia 12th district, but he backed away from the race in late 2007.

Now, the decorated veteran of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars has already filed his 2010 statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission. In that filing he indicated he intended to spend half a million dollars of his own money on the race.

Mosley appears to be a considerable upgrade for the GOP here, whose 2008 nominee, radio “personality” John Stone, spent just $280K and went on to suffer a 32-point defeat at Barrow’s hands. Still, even without a presidential campaign to turn out the district’s African-American community in full force, Mosley will be facing a tough task against an incumbent who finally seems to be entrenching himself two elections after this district’s boundaries were redrawn.