Swing State Project

As you may recall, there will be no primary for the NY-20 special election to replace now-Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. The GOP has settled on carpetbagging Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco as their nominee. Meanwhile, the Dem county committees are interviewing six people:

• Suzy Ballantyne, Director of Governmental Affairs for the New York State AFL-CIO
• Tracy Egan, former tv news anchor
• Assemblyman Tim Gordon
• Ron Kim, Kim Commissioner of Public Safety in the City of Saratoga Springs
• Scott Murphy, Managing Director of Advantage Capital Partners
• Carol Schrager, attorney

Full bios are available here.  The Times Union says a decision could come as early as today.

UPDATE: The Dems have picked Scott Murphy. (Thanks, JFM110.) Also, here is Scott Murphy‘s website.

In a widely expected move, GOP Rep. Adam Putnam is bailing:

Rep. Adam Putnam, the third-ranking Republican in the House until he relinquished that post late last year, will give up his House seat to pursue a bid as the next agriculture commissioner of Florida.

His decision to make this run has been the source of much speculation since he gave up his post as chairman of the Republican Conference on election night last fall. Most Floridians view the commissioner’s job as a stepping stone to the governor’s office.

Despite the lack of surprise, this is nonetheless a telling move. Putnam was a rising star in the GOP ranks and is only 34 years old. He likely would have sat in Boehner’s seat some day. Yet he’s choosing to leave the House rather than face the prospect of a lengthy tour in the wilderness.

Remarkably, the prior holder of Putnam’s leadership job – Chair of the House Republican Conference – also just bailed last cycle. (That would be Deborah Pryce.) We also saw the departure of two former NRCC heads (Tom Reynolds and Tom Davis). Can’t say I blame any of them for wanting to jump ship, but it really says something that so many top GOPers are fleeing.

Anyhow, open seat fans, this news is quite interesting. In 2004, George Bush romped in this district, racking up a 58-42 win. But that changed dramatically in 2008, with McCain only narrowly edging Obama 51-48. I’d be interested to hear your thoughts as to why FL-12 jumped thirteen points while the state as a whole moved “only” eight.

In any event, Tim Sahd over at the Hotline takes a look at who some of the candidates might be:

Of course, for Dems to have a chance, they’ll need to recruit a candidate that matches the GOP-leaning CD. And if moderate ex-state Sen./’98 LG candidate Rick Dantzler runs, they may have that candidate. But it’s been 10 years since he ran (his ticket ran against ex-Gov. Jeb Bush’s (R) and lost, 55-45%), so the value of his name ID in this race is questionable.

The Lakeland Ledger also reports that state Rep. Seth McKeel (R) — a close friend of Putnam’s — had been considered the most likely candidate to run, but the birth of his child has has him leaning toward staying in the legislature. Other GOPers that are mentioned include state Sen. Paula Dockery (R) and state Rep. Dennis Ross (R).

This is probably the most compelling red seat to open up so far. Looking forward to a bunch more of these!

http://thehill.com/leading-the…

Rep. Adam Putnam (R-Fla.) is set to give up his seat in Congress to run for Florida Agriculture Commissioner, a move that a GOP official said is a precursor to a run for governor.

Putnam told the Associated Press that on Monday he will file paperwork to enter the race for state agriculture commissioner, and will give up his seat in the House to run statewide in his home state.

A Republican official with close ties to Putnam said that, in Florida, the Agriculture Commissioner is a highly coveted job and is often seen as a stepping-stone to the governor’s office.

So in order to keep his presidential aspirations alive, he is taking his gig from the house, where everyone goes unloved and has his eyes on the Florida governor’s race in 2014.  Anyone want to kill a promising political career?  It would be damning for him to drop out of the US House leadership (3rd ranking GOP Member) to miss his target of Governor.  If we have Alex Sink running, that’s a real possibility

Florida’s 12th district is the most appealing retirement we’ve got yet, clocking in with an old PVI of R+5.  I am compiling a list of possible successors, right now.  Edit: After consulting a map, it looks like Fort Meadows, Bartow, Lake Whales, Winter Haven, Haines City and Lakeland are all in the district, Lakeland being the largest population center in the district.  It’s hard comparing the congressional district map to the state senate and state house map, but it appears there are no state senators in the district and there may be a Democratic State Representative or two from the Tampa / St. Petersberg suburbs.

GOP Bleeding Talent

Last year, Putnam unexpectedly gave up his job as GOP Conference chairman, the third-ranking Republican in the House. The 34-year-old Putnam was, at the time, still seen as a rising star in the party because of his age and what his colleagues said were remarkable talents.

Zach Wamp, Adam Putnam… The GOP is suffering from leadership drain.  Who is next?

Another One Bites the Dust

I am requesting that, someone who has not had the opportunity to do it yet, que the music and embed the youtube video!  I’ve done it before and a few people get to do it every time.  Please don’t post it if you have before.  If you want to but don’t know how, ask and I talk you through it!

Edit: Josh Kraushaar at The Politico throws former state senator Rick Dantzler as a potential candidate for the seat.  He also points out a couple stats on the district:

There are more registered Democrats than Republicans within the district lines. And Obama ran competitively here, winning about 48 percent of the vote against John McCain.

( http://www.politico.com/blogs/… )

So what do we know about former State Senator Rick Dantzler?  He is looking at the race:

Former state Sen. Rick Dantzler, D-Winter Haven, is taking a serious look at running for Republican-leaning Congressional District 12 should Adam Putnam jump into the race for agriculture commissioner, as is widely expected. The moderate former senator who ran for governor and lieutenant governor in 1998 is analyzing the numbers in CD 12, where Republican prospects include state Sen. Paula Dockery, and state Reps. Seth McKeel and Dennis Ross.

Source: http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz…  

Fast forward, selecta!

Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R-Kan.) officially launched his 2010 Senate bid Saturday, setting up a primary face off with fellow Republican Rep. Jerry Moran.

“As I travel across Kansas listening and sharing my vision for a more prosperous state, I have been encouraged to take my leadership to the United States Senate in 2010,” Tiahrt said at an event in Topeka, according to a statement issued by his campaign.

“I am resolute in my determination to take on tough battles in Washington to get things done for the great people of Kansas,” he said. “I stand before you today announcing that I am now a candidate for the United States Senate.”

The gulf between Moran and Tiahrt isn’t especially wide ideologically, but Tiahrt’s profile as a hard-right culture warrior may work to the advantage of Kansas Democrats should he manage to defeat Moran. From CQ:

“Tiahrt running for seat is ironically helpful for Democrats,” said Burdett Loomis, a professor of political science at University of Kansas and longtime observer of state politics. “If Tiahrt gets the nomination, the Democratic nomination is really worth something to anyone who could track funding. Tiahrt is perceived as quite a social conservative, and he doesn’t have terrific recognition outside his district. Moran has a much broader identification around the state.”

Open seat fans should be aware that Tiahrt’s 4th CD has an old PVI of R+12.2 and only gave Obama 40% of the vote this time around — pretty tough sledding, even though the area has sent Democrats to the House in decades previous.

CQ identifies state Rep. Raj Goyle as the leading candidate for Kansas Democrats — assuming he wants the nomination. In the diaries earlier this week, kansasjackass gave us some more detail:

State Rep. Raj Goyle shocked the Kansas political establishment when he beat incumbent Republican State Rep. Bonnie Huy in 2006, and has since made a name for himself as an able and ambitious member of the state legislature.  As a testament to the quality of a candidate he is, in his reliably Republican district his original election in 2006 wasn’t that close (56%-44%) and his re-election in 2008 was a blow-out: He won 67% of the vote.

Sounds like a guy worth keeping an eye on.

NYT:

The White House on Saturday confirmed the widespread speculation that President Obama is set to pick Senator Judd Gregg, Republican of New Hampshire, as his nominee for commerce secretary.

“Senator Gregg is now the leading candidate for commerce and a pick that could come as early as Monday,” a senior administration official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because a formal announcement has not yet been made.

If Gov. Lynch appoints a GOPer caretaker who won’t run in 2010, then I can live with this. Gregg must really want out of the Senate, huh.

UPDATE: I’ve heard some speculation that Lynch could pick former state Rep. Elizabeth Hager. Hager, a moderate (perhaps even liberal) pro-choice Republican, served thirteen terms in the NH state House until she was primaried out this past fall by a gang of four conservative candidates who campaigned against her together. She also endorsed Obama late in the game and Lynch (who went on to win 70-28). She’s also only 63.

More: Hager voted against a bill that would have prevented employers from subjecting employees to anti-union propaganda. One article says (not a direct quote from her) that Hager “would be delighted to stay for just two years.” Pretty vague paraphrase and doesn’t mean she’d commit to being a caretaker.

If Iowa’s representatives on the Republican National Committee had had their way, Michael Steele would not be the party’s new chairman.  

Iowa RNC Committeeman Steve Scheffler and Committeewoman Kim Lehman both supported South Carolina GOP chairman Katon Dawson, who turned out to be Steele’s toughest rival in yesterday’s voting.  Don’t ask me why Republicans who presumably want to start winning elections again would want the party’s leader to be a southerner who was in an all-white country club when the GOP is looking more like a regional party than ever before and the Democratic president (who happens to be black) is wildly popular.  

Seriously, to hear Dawson explain the roots of his political views, it all started when he got mad that the government desegregated his school when he was 15. Just the guy to give the GOP a more tolerant, inclusive image!

But I digress.

Scheffler and Lehman didn’t quietly prefer a different candidate for RNC chair, they went on record criticizing Steele earlier this month:

Though the pro-life and pro-gun Steele built a conservative record in his home state, the former Maryland lieutenant governor’s one-time affiliation with the Republican Leadership Council, which religious conservatives view as hostile to their agenda, remains a deal breaker in some sectors of the committee.

“That is an organization that created itself for the purpose of eliminating a very important part of the Republican Party and its family values,” said Iowa Committeewoman Kim Lehman, who supports South Carolina Republican Party Chair Katon Dawson’s campaign. “Michael Steele crossed over a serious line.”

“In that field, the only one that would be my number six out of six choice would be Michael Steele,” said Iowa Committeeman Steve Scheffler, citing Steele’s “past deep involvement with the Republican Leadership Council.”

“They partnered with groups like Planned Parenthood,” said Scheffler, who joined Lehman in endorsing Dawson. “In my view, you don’t lend your name to a group if you don’t agree with them.”

Incidentally, Lehman has a history of intolerance toward Republicans who believe abortion should be legal even in limited circumstances such as rape or incest. The State Central Committee of the Republican Party of Iowa censured her in December for failing to support Republican Congressional candidate Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-02).

Iowa’s third RNC member, newly elected state GOP chairman Matt Strawn, endorsed the incumbent RNC chair Mike Duncan earlier this week but apparently backed Dawson over Steele in the later ballots yesterday.

Steele’s election immediately sparked concern among some Iowa politicos that we may lose our first-in-the-nation status when the GOP selects its next presidential nominee. However, Strawn, Scheffler and Lehman had only praise for Steele in their official statements. Strawn said,

“I am excited to work with Chairman Steele to advance our principled agenda, rebuild our party from the grassroots up, and elect Republicans all across Iowa.  I am also encouraged by my conversations with Chairman Steele regarding Iowa’s First in the Nation presidential status. I will work closely with him to ensure Iowa retains its leading role for the 2012 caucus and beyond.”

Side note regarding the RNC leadership contest: I was surprised that former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell turned out not to be a serious contender, despite lining up a long list of endorsements from conservative intellectuals.

With Steele and Blackwell back in the news this month, I’ve really missed Steve Gilliard. He used to write hilarious posts about them in 2006, culminating in the classic rant You Have Shamed Us.  

Judd Gregg, who is currently under consideration for Commerce Secretary, is supposedly making it known that he’d want Gov. John Lynch, a Democrat, to appoint a Republican to his seat should he get the gig. From the Hill:

Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.) won’t accept a position as President Obama’s secretary of Commerce unless he is guaranteed his Senate seat remains in GOP hands, said two Republicans who know Gregg well.

Departing the Senate without one could give Democrats 60 members and a filibuster-proof majority.

“Gregg would never allow his seat to go to a Democrat, the only way he would allow it is if he died,” said a Republican close to Gregg. “He would consider it to be a breach of trust to people who elected it.”

As DavidNYC presciently argued yesterday, Lynch is just the type of Dem who would probably gladly acquiesce to such a demand. However, if Lynch tapped, say, Walter Peterson or Warren Rudman — both oldsters whom I would not expect to see run in 2010, then this wouldn’t be a bad deal.

Won’t somebody please remove these cutleries from my knees?

You’d think that two cycles of bad defeats would have Republican insiders thinking about how they might start heading toward relevance by trying to scramble back toward the political center they’ve written off (shown here, in the House context, in amazing visual fashion by Nate Silver). Instead, the maniacal orgy of own-eating continues.

Hot on the heels of news of a potential primary challenge to Georgia Senator Johnny Isakson by Rep. Paul Broun (for the crime of voting for the progressive agenda 4% of the time) comes news of behind-the-scene efforts to take out John McCain in 2010. National Review reports that some Arizona insiders, who’ve never tolerated McCain’s occasional mavericky play-acting, see an opening in the wake of McCain’s lackluster presidential run.

But now that he has lost the presidency, there are some Republicans in Arizona who would like to see him lose his Senate office, too. “I’ll do anything I can to support his Republican opponent, whoever that might be,” Rob Haney – who until last week was chairman of the Republican party in Arizona’s District 11 – told me recently. Haney has been a loud and vocal critic of McCain for years, arguing that McCain is “not a conservative in any way, shape, or form.”

Now, there are several caveats. Haney’s preferred candidate is loudmouthed ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth, bounced out of office in 2006 and currently working as a talk radio host. Hayworth claims to be “flattered,” but in his quotes in the article seems to be offering many excuses for why he might not run. Moreover, it’s not clear how much pull Haney has; he just lost his GOP chairmanship to a more moderate candidate. Nevertheless, it’s one more example of the GOP going back to what it does best: when finding yourself at the bottom of a deep hole, keep digging.

Last night I was checking out the Progressive Punch scores for the new GOP House members.  Much of it was expected and depressing.  Seven of the new GOPers had a Progressive Punch score of zero.  That’s right Pete Olson (TX-22), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Blaine Leurkemeyer (MO-9, winner by 8,000 votes), Duncan Hunter (CA-52, son of that Duncan Hunter), Gregg Harper (MS-3),Brett Guthrie (KY-2) and John Fleming (LA-4) all had yet to cast a single “progressive” vote.

Eight others were not far behind with seven at 3.23 (Glenn Thompson, Tom Rooney, Tom McClintock, Lynn Jenkins, Mike Coffman, Jason Chaffetz, and Steve Austria) and one at 3.33 (Bill Posey).  Jenkins is a disappointment here.

Four showed at least a hint of moderation:  Phil Roe of TN-1 (6.45), Christoher Lee of NY-26 (9.68), Joseph Cao of LA-2 (12.90) and the positive surprise wonderkid Aaron Schock of IL-18 (16.13).  Lee is an improvement over the man he replaced, Tom Reynolds.  He might be harder to displace than I hoped.

I started counting Republicans by the year they were elected from information I had collected but found that the Washington Post lists representatives by class (the year first elected).  The results mainly “agreed” but the Post disregards gaps in serevice.  Ciro Rodriguez, for example, is shown as 1997 not 2006.  Dan Lungren, who served ten years and then left the House for 14 years is shown as 1978.

The Post lists 36 classes (they don’t list the class of 2008.  Republicans win 10 of the 37 classes (we know how 2008 turned out); 2 classes are tied and Democrats win 25 of the 37 classes.  The largest Republican class is the class of 2002 with 24 Republicans (and 13 Democrats).  The largest Democratic class is the class of 2006 with 37 members.  The famous class of 1974 where Democrats picked up 49 seats is reduced to just four members, all Democrats.  The Newt “Contract ” class of 1994 has been beaten down to 23 members, 16 Republicans and 7 Democrats.  There are more Republican House members left from the class of 1992 (18) than from the “revolutionary” class of 1994.  The Revolution is over.

The Republican years are 1973, (1-0), 1978 (3-0 including Lungren), 1979 (1-0, Tom Petri IIRC), 1980 (5-1), 1989 (1-0), 1994 (16-7), 2000 (17-12),2001 (5-1), and 2002 (24-13) and 2005 (2-1).

The three House members with the most seniority are all midwestern Democrats: John Dingell (1955, I kid you not), John Conyers (1964) and David Obey (1969, I remember his surprise election as an anti-war candidate).  The two Republicans with the most seniority are both named Young (Bill was elected in 1970, Don in 1973).  The other Republicans from the 70s are either from Wisconsin (Sensenbrenner and Petri) or California (Lungren and Jerry Lewis).

A narrow majority of Republican House members came in with George W. Bush.  2004 was the electoral high point for Republicans since 1928 when Herbert Hoover was elected along with 270 House members.  Since the election of 1932, Republicans have had the Trifecta for six years and five months.  The first spell lasted from early 1953 to early 1955.  Eisenhower was pretty moderate and the Republican legislative edges were about as slim as possible with 221 House members and a 48-47-1 edge in the Senate.  With the stolen Presidential election of 200, Republicans regained the trifecta from January 20,2001 to Jun 6,2001.  Their edge was 211 House seats, a 50-50 Senate vote with Dick Cheney as the tie-breaker and that is what Cheney did.  By obnoxiously leaning on Jim Jeffords and sonstantly denigrating him and threatening milk supports for Vermont Vheney pushed Jeffords to caucus with the Democrats.  Way to break the tie, Dick.  From January 2003 through January 2007 the Republican glory years broke out.  Following the 2002 election Republicans had a modest 229 seats in the House and 51 in the Senate.  With the elction of 2004 it spread to 229 House seats and a 55-45 Senate edge.  Then came Katrina.  And Iraq’s death toll mounting.

Since then, it’s been our time.