Swing State Project

P’co:

Sen. Judd Gregg will be nominated as the new Commerce secretary Tuesday morning, giving President Obama a fresh independent voice in his Cabinet but at a huge cost to Republicans and the larger Senate.

The run-up to the nomination has focused on backroom deals, from New Hampshire’s statehouse to Washington, to preserve the balance of power in Congress. And Tuesday’s White House announcement is expected to be accompanied by one by New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch that will ensure that Gregg’s seat won’t switch to the Democrats before the 2010 elections.

Brian Beutler nails it:

Surely Gregg’s desire to replace himself with somebody who will often oppose his new boss’s agenda is evidence of his deep commitment to the administration, the cabinet, and the agency he appears poised to head.

Can’t wait to see whom Lynch appoints… sheesh.

(Hat-tip: dday)

UPDATE: No, says CNN, we aren’t getting some moderate old-timer:

But state political sources from both parties said Monday that Lynch will name Gregg’s former chief of staff, Bonnie Newman, to replace him.

Newman, most recently the interim president of the University of New Hampshire, also worked in the White House during the first Bush administration and was an assistant commerce secretary during the Reagan administration.

A Democratic president is appointing an arch-conservative senator to his cabinet, and a Democratic governor is going to appoint a replacement senator cut from the exact same cloth. Are we living in bizarro-world? I won’t believe this Newman will serve as a caretaker until the filing deadline passes. (H/t: DTM,B!)

According to The Politico President Obama will nominate Judd Gregg to be his Sectary of Commerce tomorrow. Gregg will almost assuredly be confirmed easily and quickly as he’s well liked by Republicans and Democrats alike.

This now opens up his Senate seat. New Hampshire’s Democratic Governor John Lynch has all but pledged to appoint a Republican to the seat and Gregg said he only would have accepted with that condition. The most commonly mentioned liberal Republican placeholder is Bonnie Newman who served as chief of staff to Gregg but also endorsed Lynch in 2004.

This almost certainly assures that Gregg will at least vote for cloture on the stimulus which makes it likely that it will pass. In addition Newman is likely to be close politically to moderate Republicans like Snowe during her two years.

Also, after two years she is likely to retire rather then run for re-election. This will make the Democratic candidate (likely progressive Rep. Paul Hodes or Rep. Carol Shea-Porter) the odds on favorite. Likely Republican candidates include former Senator John Sununu and other even weaker candidates.

So in short, this moves the Senate slightly leftward for the next two years and will add a very progressive Senator after that. In return Gregg will get to be a member of the cabinet where he can’t do a whole lot of damage and will be useful selling stuff to Senate Republicans.  

When we at SSP first hatched the idea of compiling some numbers for presidential election results for congressional districts, we were thinking we’d be lucky to get to 60 or maybe 100 districts. After all, we couldn’t track down precinct-level data for hundreds of counties, sort out what precinct goes into what district, and pick apart large metro counties with thousands and thousands of precincts… could we?

Well, with the aid of SSP’s crack cadre of some of the brightest and most tenacious elections geeks out there — in particular the relentless number cruncher jeffmd and master BoE cajoler Democratic Luntz — we’re closing in on completing all 435 districts. With another 54 added to the pile today, we’re near the 90% mark, with only 51 remaining incomplete. If you want to see all district percentages so far, the link is here; you can also check out the diaries where we released the numbers in more detail here, here, and here.

District	Obama #	McCain #	Other #	2008 %	2004 %	2000 %
AL-02	101,923	179,326	1,499	36.1/63.4	33/67	38/61
AL-05	115,773	185,640	3,364	38.0/60.9	39/60	44/54
CO-02	171,988	82,594	4,159	66.5/31.9	58/41	52/43
CO-04	168,637	171,690	6,229	48.7/49.5	41/58	37/57
MA-03	175,538	117,708	5,613	58.7/39.4	59/40	59/35
MA-04	197,306	107,459	5,175	63.7/34.7	65/33	65/29
MO-01	246,451	59,911	2,849	79.7/19.4	75/25	72/26
MO-03	189,730	124,537	4,589	59.5/39.1	57/43	54/43
MO-04	114,401	183,167	4,712	37.9/60.6	35/64	40/58
MO-05	198,259	110,057	3,371	63.6/35.3	59/40	60/37
MO-06	148,997	179,074	5,894	44.6/53.6	42/57	44/53
MO-07	114,752	204,246	5,013	35.4/63.0	32/67	36/62
NJ-03	181,004	162,339	3,828	52.1/46.8	49/51	54/43
NJ-05	152,506	179,781	3,428	45.4/53.6	43/57	45/52
NJ-06	149,400	98,959	2,791	59.5/39.4	57/43	61/35
NJ-07	177,471	165,430	4,016	51.2/47.7	47/53	48/49
NJ-08	165,346	93,734	2,098	63.3/35.9	59/41	60/37
NJ-09	158,933	99,144	2,270	61.1/38.1	59/41	63/34
NJ-10	208,151	30,192	1,048	87.0/12.6	82/18	83/16
NJ-11	154,300	182,604	3,253	45.4/53.7	42/58	43/54
NJ-13	155,012	50,369	1,750	74.8/24.3	69/31	72/25
NY-01	165,805	153,419	3,032	51.5/47.6	49/49	52/44
NY-08	184,682	63,769	2,121	73.7/25.5	72/27	74/18
NY-10	205,929	19,677	608	91.0/8.7	86/13	88/8
NY-11	206,656	20,709	999	90.5/9.1	86/13	83/9
NY-13	108,439	112,491	1,558	48.7/50.6	45/55	52/44
NY-15	226,049	14,954	1,522	93.2/6.2	90/9	87/7
NY-16	158,671	8,437	335	94.8/5.0	89/10	92/5
NY-17	172,479	66,027	1,312	71.9/27.5	67/33	69/27
NY-20	167,827	157,879	5,286	50.7/47.7	46/54	44/51
NY-21	179,322	123,378	5,733	58.1/40.0	55/43	56/39
NY-22	168,598	111,896	4,168	59.2/39.3	54/45	51/42
NY-23	133,367	119,943	4,112	51.8/46.6	47/51	47/49
NY-24	139,832	133,277	4,743	50.3/48.0	47/53	47/48
NY-25	177,780	135,931	5,216	55.7/42.6	50/48	51/45
NY-29	146,698	153,432	3,966	48.2/50.5	42/56	43/53
OH-14	168,381	169,131	5,193	49.1/49.4	47/53	44/52
OK-01	114,446	205,329	0	35.8/64.2	35/65	37/62
OK-02	91,481	174,351	0	34.4/65.6	41/59	47/52
OK-03	78,434	210,104	0	27.2/72.8	28/72	34/65
OK-04	101,418	200,192	0	33.6/66.4	33/67	38/61
OK-05	116,717	170,189	0	40.7/59.3	36/64	38/62
PA-03	143,416	143,433	4,066	49.3/49.3	47/53	47/51
PA-04	149,661	185,052	3,385	44.3/54.7	45/54	46/52
PA-05	123,503	152,946	3,944	44.1/54.6	39/61	38/59
PA-06	207,911	148,231	3,516	57.8/41.2	52/48	49/49
PA-07	186,232	142,944	3,845	55.9/42.9	53/47	51/47
PA-09	98,430	176,023	3,368	35.4/63.4	33/67	34/64
PA-10	131,335	155,437	3,721	45.2/53.5	40/60	41/56
PA-13	188,903	130,699	3,009	58.6/40.5	56/43	56/42
PA-19	142,398	187,857	3,698	42.6/56.3	36/64	36/61
UT-01	103,737	197,457	9,452	33.4/63.6	25/73	27/68
UT-02	138,790	202,534	11,552	39.3/57.4	31/66	31/67
UT-03	85,143	196,039	11,361	29.1/67.0	20/77	24/75

Some points of interest to check out in this batch: look at PA-06, with some of the steepest improvement in all of Pennsylvania. Any question why Jim Gerlach may be planning to cash it in and run for governor in 2010? It might be because his district just shot past PA-07 and PA-08 to become the bluest all-suburban district in the Philly area.

We have data for most of upstate New York (except for Erie County, where Buffalo is), and it’s striking that Obama improved on Kerry at a much greater clip upstate than in the NYC metro area. One thing that might give us some optimism heading into the NY-20 special election is the nearly 6-point improvement, as well as the fact that the Dem candidate actually won the district in the first time since, well, probably Barry Goldwater. But this is pretty typical across upstate NY, as we also flipped NY-23 and NY-24, moved NY-25 from swing to pretty safe D, and almost even won in New York’s reddest district of NY-29. Compare this with, say, the whiter urban districts, like NY-08 or especially NY-13 (Staten Island and white ethnic parts of Brooklyn), where Obama lost narrowly while barely improving on Kerry’s numbers, and thus nearly overtaking NY-29 as New York’s reddest district.

The biggest improvements here, as in previous installments are in the Mountain West. This is plain to see in Colorado, not just in the 2nd (where the improvement over 2000 is gigantic, although that may have to do with the huge Nader effect among Boulder’s granola-munching crowd) but also in the 4th, where Obama lost by less than a point where Gore lost by 20. And although we didn’t come even close in Utah, some of the biggest percentage gains were there. Look for UT-03 to lose its worst-PVI-in-the-nation status, as Obama made up 9 points there on Kerry.

Is there any bad news to report here? Well, we came oh-so-close to flipping OH-14 in Cleveland’s suburbs (fewer than 1,000 votes), while not moving the numbers much there. And we lost ground in AL-05, the Appalachian portion of Alabama, and PA-04, which, like PA-12, is in the collar counties around Pittsburgh where the Rust Belt fades into the Appalachians.

Probably least appetizing are the numbers out of Oklahoma, but even it provides some interesting insights into the changes from the old Democratic coalition to the current Democratic coalition. Most of the state stayed in neutral over the decade, but compare OK-02 (rural NE Oklahoma around Muskogee) vs. OK-05 (Oklahoma City). We’re getting absolutely hammered in the 2nd, a traditionally Yellow Doggish area that Gore almost won. On the other hand, we shot up in the 5th, the most cosmopolitan part of the state.

So what’s left to do? Our main task is, at this point, getting data from counties who have been unresponsive or are charging an arm and a leg for it. If you’re interested in helping out, check out this diary for a primer; here’s our database of elections boards to contact. And, as always, here’s our master crowdsourcing database… although, as you might notice, most of those blanks have been filled in! Thanks to you guys, of course.

One final caveat: these numbers are subject to change slightly, as we refine the data. In fact, in a few days I’ll be posting a list of several dozen updated districts. None of these changes should amount to more than a fraction of a percentage point, but caution is warranted where a fraction of a percent would make a lot of difference in how the district is perceived (for instance, PA-03, where a very small revision could make all the difference in terms of McCain’s 17-vote margin in the district).

Let’s hope this doesn’t happen:

In what could be a Sunshine State one-two punch, multiple Republican sources are confirming that Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) is giving serious consideration to running for Senate – and that Sen. Mel Martinez (R-Fla.) is contemplating resigning from his seat before his term is up next year.

Martinez has already announced he will not run for re-election when his first term expires in 2010. Crist, according to sources, has had multiple serious conversations about running for Senate with both Martinez and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn (Texas). […]

Sources say most Republicans are waiting on the sidelines because they want to see what Crist does before jumping into the Senate race, and explain further that Sink could be eyeing an open gubernatorial seat in 2010, when Crist’s first term is up.

Wow, okay. So are we to believe that Martinez will bail early and that Crist would appoint himself to the Senate? Martinez’s people are staying mum for now, only saying that the Senator “looks forward to serving out the rest of his term” (hardly a lock-solid promise to stay), and then we have this from Florida GOP Chair Jim Greer:

“A self-appointment — that’s not Charlie Crist. He has far too much appreciation for the electorate to appoint himself to the Senate,” said Greer.

Okay… but what about this scenario (again, from Roll Call):

Florida’s lieutenant governor is a Republican and would appoint Martinez’s successor if he and Crist both resign prematurely.

In other words, a self-appointment in all but name. Pretty skeezy, huh?

Of course, this is all speculative, and I hope that Kraushaar is onto something when his Florida GOP contacts tell him that the possibility of a Crist Senate bid is “remote”. In any event, Greer says that Crist won’t make a decision until the end of the state’s legislative session in May — at the earliest.

It’s simple to enter Senate Guru’s “Pick the Nominee” Contest.  All you need to do is sign up (for free) as a member of the Senate Guru community.

Correctly pick the winner in ten different 2010 U.S. Senate primaries primaries.  Measure your prognosticating skills against other political junkies and amateur pundits.  You have until this Friday at 5pm ET to make your picks.

Good luck!

Senate Guru

Oh so unsurprising:

Gov. John Lynch (D-NH) indicated today he’ll appoint a Republican to replace Sen. Judd Gregg if Obama nominates the New Hampshire senator to be Secretary of Commerce. In a statement, Lynch said that Gregg made it clear that he would not resign the seat if it would tip the balance in the Senate, and that Lynch believes that the president ought to have the advisers he wants.

“I have had conversations with Senator Gregg, the White House and U.S. Senate leadership. Senator Gregg has said he would not resign his seat in the U.S. Senate if it changed the balance in the Senate. Based on my discussions, it is clear the White House and Senate leadership understand this as well,” Lynch said.

“If President Obama does nominate Senator Gregg to serve as Commerce Secretary, I will name a replacement who will put the people of New Hampshire first and represent New Hampshire effectively in the U.S. Senate,” he said.

Let’s just hope that he picks someone who’ll leave a clean table for 2010 — but I wouldn’t put it past Lynch to screw us.

A few days ago, many of us were popping champagne over the news that Bill Sali was apparently preparing himself for a rematch against newly-minted Dem Rep. Walt Minnick.

Not so fast:

Former GOP Rep. Bill Sali told 670 KBOI late Friday afternoon that support for a rematch against Democrat Walt Minnick “runs very deep,” but that he hasn’t decided whether to run in 2010. […]

“I haven’t made a decision yet,” Sali told KBOI’s Nate Shelman in a six-minute interview. “I promise everyone when I make a decision I will let everyone know.” Sali did not take calls on Shelman’s talk show.

Earlier Friday, Sali told the Associated Press, “I am months away from any decision.”

Candidates are required to file statements of candidacy if they raise or spend $5,000 for the upcoming election. Sali said he had spent more than $5,000, and the filing was a technical matter.

“Runs very deep”, eh? Thank God for brain fade.

Last week’s Virginia Governor Democratic Primary Cattle Call

With only 129 days until Virginia’s June 9th Democratic gubernatorial primary, the race is in full swing. The good news for political junkies is that the race has been receiving a good deal of attention. For those looking for a fix, on Tuesday Public Policy Polling* will release head-to-head and favorability numbers for the Democratic Primary. Some people think that Tuesday’s Sharon Bulova result will be important. But it is an all hands on deck for all the campaigns and the only candidate trying to up the ante is Terry McAuliffe in his attempt to smudge the fact he hasn’t helped down ticket Commonwealth Democrats by glossing over with cash.

What’s happened in the last week?

Terry McAuliffe ~ Big week for Terry McAuliffe, but that is both a blessing and a curse. And that will be the story for as long as he hangs around. Terry McAuliffe can raise big money to put his face on TV, but what comes out of his mouth when he is in front of the camera inverts the principle that more media is better.

Terry McAuliffe Money Everyone knows Terry McAuliffe is best known for escalating transactional politics and thus will be able to raise big cash from interests who appreciate pay-to-play. The GOP is already salivating over what looks like a $25,000 of sketchiness. And the $350,000 Park Avenue event is likely to cause some trouble when the next finance reports are released on Tax Day and people see where their Wall Street bailout is going. Optics aren’t pretty:

McAuliffe then stated his case – business savvy to turnaround Virginia’s economic woes – to a crowd with a zero percentage of Virginia residents. Still, the cream of New York’s bundler society present at the dinner could be said to account for McAuliffe’s financial base.

Not a cool base, but he will have lots of money, which brings him to the problem that he’ll spend it putting his face on TV.

Terry McAuliffe on TV

The big money let McAuliffe air a Super Bowl ad, but does it help to brand his face on TV? Tim Craig noted:

And because he was a frequent guest on cable news programs as chairman of the Democratic National Committee, reams of footage could become fodder for a GOP advertising campaign. The Virginia GOP has compiled an extensive opposition research file on McAuliffe, GOP sources said.

Brian Moran ~ Picking p the endorsement of Dwight Jones was a major get, but again for Moran the big news was his big moves on the environment. This week, it was his Green Virginia Plan:

“Virginia can and must become a leader in renewable energy and get our economy moving,” said Moran, a former delegate from Alexandria who is one of three Democrats seeking the party’s nomination for governor.

“The time for leadership on this issue has come, and I’m committed to bold action. This plan will create tens of thousands of jobs in growing industries,” Moran said. “These investments will produce returns for years in the form of new technologies and new jobs.”

Bob Burnley, director of the Department of Environmental Quality under then-Gov. Mark R. Warner, endorsed Moran today and praised his environmental plan.

Creigh Deeds ~ While McAuliffe is putting his money on TV and Moran is again getting lots of earned media for his environmental consolidation, where is Deeds? Not only is he not making good moves, he is making mistakes. Again, he’s going to have to step it up to be more than a spoiler.

*The latest PPC poll in Ohio had no clue when it came to the electorate, so take it with a grain of salt.

Since noone else brought it up I figured I would.  Kos sponsored another R2K poll.  This one on the Florida Senate race in 2010.  It really doesn’t tell us much since many of the candidates have announced they are not running.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…

Primary polls:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 1/26-28. Likely voters. MoE 4%, 5% for primary samples (No trendlines)

Democratic Primary

Meek 17

Boyd 8

Gelber 3

Undecided 72

Republican Primary

Crist 57

McCollum 11

Rubio 4

Republican Primary

McCollum 28

Rubio 12

General Polls:

Crist (R) 49

Meek (D) 28

Meek (D) 31

Rubio (R) 22

Crist (R) 52

Gelber (D) 21

Gelber (D) 23

Rubio (R) 23

Another unsurprising departure:

U.S. Rep. Artur Davis on Friday will declare his intention to seek the governorship of Alabama, sources close to the congressman confirm.  

The much-anticipated announcement marks the most serious bid ever launched by a black candidate to win the top office in a state that still observes Robert E. Lee and Jefferson Davis’ birthdays but that also gave rise to the civil rights movement that ended Jim Crow.

Sources close to the campaign said Davis, 41, will announce his intention to seek the Democratic Party nomination for governor at a midday event Friday in Birmingham, which he represents in Congress, followed by a late-afternoon event in his native Montgomery. He’ll kick off his campaign outside the state’s Archives, within sight of the first White House of the Confederacy and the Alabama Capitol, where that Confederacy was born 148 years ago Wednesday.

Ag Comm’r and SSP hero Ron Sparks, as well as Lt. Gov. Jim Folsom, are also considering runs for the Dems. Open seat fans, don’t fret – Obama won 79% of the vote in AL-07. In fact, this is a good opportunity to replace Davis with someone more progressive, in the mold, perhaps, of Steve Cohen replacing Harold Ford, Jr.

UPDATE: A Roll Call piece (h/t politicalal) lists some potential AL-07 candidates:

Of the several members of the state Legislature who have been mentioned as possible Davis replacements, the most intriguing may be state Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr. (D), the son of the former Congressman [whom Davis ousted in a primary in 2002]. …

Other Democratic state legislators whose names have been floated as possible candidates in the 7th include state Rep. Merika Coleman and state Sen. Rodger Smitherman, who both hail from Jefferson County, where Birmingham is located. State Sen. Bobby Singleton, whose senate district includes parts of Tuscaloosa and rural counties south and west, has also been mentioned. …

Birmingham attorney Terri Sewell, a longtime associate of Davis’ who attended Princeton University at the same time as first lady Michelle Obama, is expected to run in an open-seat race in the 7th.  …

Another candidate mentioned in Democratic circles is Sheila Smoot, a two-term Jefferson County commissioner who is also known for her work as a former television news anchor.