Tag: contest

We received three entries (so far) in our mini redistricting challenge for VA: from sawolf, okiedem, and drobertson. But now Dave Wasserman’s gone and added a new wrinkle: He says that the DOJ might force Virginia to junk its likely compromise map and proceed with two separate VRA seats. What kind of map can you come up with that creates two majority-minority districts in the Old Dominion?

UPDATE: SaoMagnifico has a map in the first thread taking another crack at the “compromise” plan.

(I’m bumping this one up. Not a single map as yet? Come on, people! – promoted by DavidNYC)

So Politico has some details about an incumbent protection map that’s supposedly been agreed to in Virginia:

Members of Virginia’s House delegation unanimously agreed to a redistricting plan that will protect all of their seats and strengthen the three GOP freshmen who ousted Democratic incumbents last November, POLITICO has learned.

The new map, according to multiple sources in both parties who are familiar with the plan, was crafted in the past month chiefly by Virginia’s eight GOP members. But it has received crucial private support from the state’s three House Democrats – notably Rep. Gerry Connolly, who barely survived reelection last November and whose Capitol Beltway-area district would get a Democratic bump.

The delegation is hoping for legislative approval in three weeks when the politically divided General Assembly convenes a special session.

So here’s the contest: Though the details are sketchy, draw what you think this map might look like using Dave’s Redistricting App. Make sure to read the entire Politico piece – most of the details are on the second page. Dave Wasserman has some ideas (here and here), but what are yours?

UPDATE: Looks like we have three entries so far: sawolf, okiedem, and drobertson. Whaddya think?

Now that we’ve finally been able to name a winner in our 2009 predictions contest, we’re ready to open up some new frontiers. Check it out:

The Short Version: Redistrict New York state so that your map would likely elect at least 26 Democrats and no more than two Republicans. Post your plan as a diary. Win babka.

The Long Version: Dave (of Dave’s Redistricting App) and Jeffmd have been hard at work implementing partisan political data for New York, and the results have recently gone live. So you have from now until Sunday night, January 10th, at midnight Eastern in which to post a diary containing your maps & descriptions. Jeff, who has graciously agreed to judge this contest, will then decide which plan he deems “best.” There are a few criteria which I’ll detail below, and those have to be met in order for your plan to be eligible. But as far as what constitutes the “best” plan, well… this is going to be something like an art contest, and the judge’s sense of aesthetics will rule the day. After all, redistricting is as much art as it is science!

Here are the criteria to follow:

0) Not that we would expect anyone to do otherwise, but you have to use Dave’s Redistricting App.

1) You must have 28 districts of equal population size, within ~±1% of the ideal district size of 700,334 (i.e., any district between 693,331 and 707,337 will work).

2) You must draw seats for at least 26 Democrats – 26-2, 27-1, and 28-0 plans are all acceptable.

3) Assume that all current incumbents are re-elected in 2010. You will therefore have to eliminate at least one incumbent’s district.

4) Your over-arching goal should be to shore up all Democratic seats which are potentially vulnerable. If you choose to eliminate an incumbent Democrat’s district, the trade-off should mean bluer districts for remaining incumbents.

5) Not a requirement, but bonus points for screwing Peter King in some fashion

6) Water contiguity is permitted (bonus points for connecting along bridges).

7) Touch-point contiguity is not permitted. (Touch-point contiguity occurs when two geographical units only meet each other at a single point. Think of the famous “Four Corners” in the American southwest: Arizona and Colorado share touch-point contiguity, as do New Mexico and Utah.)

8) VRA compliance is required. VRA-compliant districts should be centered around the geographic areas covered by the the present-day districts listed below. These districts may be re-numbered and re-shaped however you see fit, so long as your final plan includes districts which meet the criteria below. They may also be combined & re-fashioned, especially in the case of NY-10 and NY-11.

We won’t require strict adherence to any particular set of numbers, but these are probably pretty decent guidelines:

     • NY-06 area (Jamaica, St. Albans, Springfield Gardens, Far Rockaway): 50%+ African-American

     • NY-10 area (Bed-Stuy, Canarsie, East New York, Downtown Brooklyn): 50%+ African-American

     • NY-11 area (Crown Heights, Brownsville, Park Slope, Flatbush): 50%+ African-American

     • NY-12 area (Greenpoint, Bushwick, Glendale, Lower East Side): 48%+ Hispanic

     • NY-15 area (Harlem, Spanish Harlem, Upper West Side, Washington Heights): Majority-minority

     • NY-16 area (South Bronx, Morrisania, High Bridge, Port Morris): 60%+ Hispanic

9) All 28 districts must be described in your writeup. Each district writeup must include:

     • A list of any current incumbents whose homes are in that district. If more than one incumbent lives in a district, you must describe whom you think the district “belongs” to.

     • A brief narrative summary of major counties, cities, towns, and/or neighborhoods encompassed by the district. This list need not – and should not – be exhaustive. It should just hit the high points.

     • Demographic information about racial breakdowns by percentage.

     • 2008 presidential election results, both for the new district and the old district (to the extent there is a corresponding old district).

     • Total population.

10) Your writeup must include maps sufficient to show all 28 districts with reasonable detail. Use zoomed-in maps for densely populated areas. Please make maps no more than 590 pixels wide – any larger and they break the site’s formatting on many monitors. But by all means link to full-size images.

11) Your map can be as gerrymandered or as compact as you wish. Bonus points for creativity.

12) Only one entry per user – but you can post your diary at any time during the contest period (again, until midnight Eastern time on Sunday, Jan. 10th).

13) Please email your saved .DRF.XML to Jeff (jeffmd [at] swingstateproject [dot] com). Dave has instructions for locating your file in his help file (scroll down to the section “Saved Files”), for Mac OS, Windows XP, and Windows Vista. Do not post this file online.

If you have any questions or need any clarifications, please feel free to ask in comments. To the winner goes the babka!

P.S. To assist you, a list of each represenative’s area of residence is below the fold. If you have more detailed information about any of them, please let us know in comments.

UPDATE: Please put the phrase “Contest Entry:” at the start of your diary title, and please also put the tag “redistricting contest” in your tags.

Also, here’s a helpful map of NYC neighborhoods (warning: large PDF).

UPDATE 2: There are special instructions for turning on the political (Obama vs. McCain) data:

To access this new data, you need to check the “Use Test Data” checkbox in the upper right corner of the app before selecting New York State. (Because the data format is different than I have been using, I’ve separated it into a separate directory on the server.)

Exciting news, folks: Thanks to the hard work of Dave and Jeffmd, Dave’s Redistricting App now has political data for the state of New York. Just like with Maryland, when you create your new New York maps, you’ll be able to see the Obama-McCain percentage for each district.

With this new feature launched, SSP plans to hold a redistricting contest in the near future. Dave has asked, though, that everyone kick the tires a bit before we officially begin the contest. So head on over to the app and test out the new NY data – and then stay tuned for a more detailed announcement from us soon!

It’s simple to enter Senate Guru’s “Pick the Nominee” Contest.  All you need to do is sign up (for free) as a member of the Senate Guru community.

Correctly pick the winner in ten different 2010 U.S. Senate primaries primaries.  Measure your prognosticating skills against other political junkies and amateur pundits.  You have until this Friday at 5pm ET to make your picks.

Good luck!

Senate Guru

My latest election contest is ready (cutting it close to the wire). I do this primarily by email, but thought I’d post here and open it up to others. Feel free to invite anyone who might be interested to enter, as long as they do so by about Noon PST Tuesday, Feb. 5.

INTRODUCTION

Finally, the Super Tuesday contest.  I’ll allow entries until about Noon PST Tuesday.  I’m not sure things will be any more clear in 26 hours than they are now.

There’s so much happening Tuesday that one could ask a bunch of different questions.  Please answer at least the main contest question and the tie breakers.

Some people have expressed interest in other questions, so those will follow.  They’ll be treated as separate contests and are optional.

MAIN CONTEST QUESTIONS

DEMOCRATIC PARTY CONTESTS

Primaries: AL, AS, AZ, AR, CA, CT, DE, GA, IL, MA, MO, NJ, NY, OK, TN, UT

Caucus/conventions: AK, CO, ID, KS, MN, NM, ND (also, DA begin voting) [Do not use in main question.]

AS = American Samoa

DA = Democrats Abroad

Main question — List the primary states won by each candidate, according to plurality popular vote (to make it easier to answer, “none” and “the rest” are acceptable answers):

Hillary Clinton:

Barack Obama:

Scoring – 1 point per pledged delegate at stake in each state you get right.

First Tie-breaker — List the number of pledged delegates each candidate will win on Feb. 5 (1,449 pledged delegates are at stake), including:

Hillary Clinton:

Barack Obama:

Second Tie- breaker — Who wins CA and by what percentage margin statewide?

REPUBLICAN PARTY CONTESTS

Primaries: AL, AZ, AR, CA, CT, DE, GA, IL, MA, MO, NJ, NY, OK, TN, UT

Caucus/conventions: AK, CO, DA, MN, MT, ND, WV [Do not use in main question.]

Main question — List the primary states won by each candidate, according to plurality popular vote:

Mike Huckabee:

Mitt Romney:

John McCain:

Ron Paul:

Scoring – 1 point per pledged delegate at stake in each state you get right.

First Tie-breaker — List the number of pledged delegates each candidate will win on Feb. 5 (836 pledged delegates are at stake):

Mike Huckabee:

Mitt Romney:

John McCain:

Ron Paul:

Second Tie-breaker — Who wins CA and by what percentage margin statewide, over which second place candidate (e.g., “Smith over Jones by 4%”)?

SUPPLEMENTAL QUESTIONS (OPTIONAL)

1) Which candidates, if any, drop out immediately (within 48 hours) after Feb. 5?

Democratic candidates (Clinton, Obama, Gravel):

Republican candidates (Huckabee, Romney, McCain, Paul):

2) Aggregate percentage of the vote in the Feb. 5 primary states?

Hillary Clinton:

Barack Obama:

Others:

Mike Huckabee:

Mitt Romney:

John McCain:

Ron Paul:

Others:

Some longer term questions:

4) On what date will the party’s nominee mathematically clinch the nomination (counting unpledged delegate endorsements)?

FYI REFERENCE INFO

DEMOCRATIC PARTY CONTESTS

Primaries: AL, AS, AZ, AR, CA, CT, DE, GA, IL, MA, MO, NJ, NY, OK, TN, UT

Caucus/conventions: AK, CO, ID, KS, MN, NM, ND (also, DA begin voting)

REPUBLICAN PARTY CONTESTS

Primaries: AL, AZ, AR, CA, CT, DE, GA, IL, MA, MO, NJ, NY, OK, TN, UT

Caucus/conventions: AK, CO, DA, MN, MT, ND, WV

Primary (not caucus) election states, with the number of Dem/GOP delegates at stake, by poll closing time (PST) and number of Dem delegates at stake:

4pm – GA (87/72)

5pm – IL (153/57), NJ (107/52), MA (93/40), MO (72/58), TN (68/52), AL (52/45), CT (48/27), OK (38/38), DE (15/18)

5:30pm – AR (35/34)

6pm – NY (232/87), AZ (56/50)

7pm – UT (23/36)

8pm – CA (370/170)

If the delegates don’t match what you see in the media, that’s because they often just list the total number delegates per state.  I am excluding each state’s unpledged delegates however, as they are not chosen in these primaries and are free to support any candidate they choose at the national conventions.

LINKS

Reference:

The Green Papers: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/…

2008 Democratic Convention Watch: http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/

CNN Dems: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20…

CNN GOP: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20…

Polling sites:

Pollster: http://pollster.com/

Real Clear Politics: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ (right wing, but for these elections, their averages might be more useful than pollsters trends)