We received three entries (so far) in our mini redistricting challenge for VA: from sawolf, okiedem, and drobertson. But now Dave Wasserman’s gone and added a new wrinkle: He says that the DOJ might force Virginia to junk its likely compromise map and proceed with two separate VRA seats. What kind of map can you come up with that creates two majority-minority districts in the Old Dominion?
UPDATE: SaoMagnifico has a map in the first thread taking another crack at the “compromise” plan.
seat in NoVA? I’ve done it before with the overall population in VA-11. Would bumping up minority population to over 50% of the voting age population satisfy DoJ?
that the DOJ can’t do this under Section 5 of the VRA. What VA has to worry about is a section 2 seat. But I think they have a pretty plausible defense: they can’t draw a second VRA district in the south without pulling the black VAP of the 3rd district below 50% (or drawing a racial gerrymander), and that might be retrogressive.
Would this give us 4 seats?
Had a majority-minority district in NOVA and 2 in the rest of the state. The problem is that it’s quite hard to make both of the other districts majority black by voting age population (at least with the precision of the redistricting app, sorry Dave) and I can’t see the DOJ forcing another one drawn if it has to be majority black by voting age. On the other hand, it would be quite easier if the districts needed to be only plurality black by total population.
Regardless, with 3 majority-minority districts plus VA-08 the Republicans could still draw a pretty effective 7-4 gerrymander with Frank Wolf’s district the only one where Dems have any chance at a pick up. That sort of configuration, or any other 7-4, depends on how willing they would be to trade one seat to shore up the others, which leads me to think that having a second VRA district in the tidewater would hurt Democrats in the long term by locking in the rest of the potential pick-up seats.
If this happens – and it seems like a long shot to me, Virginia’s 20% AA population notwithstanding – the question is whether it must be a black-majority seat, or just a majority-minority seat. If the former, Randy Forbes is probably screwed. But if the latter, why wouldn’t they just make one of the NoVa Dem seats (Connolly or Moran) majority-minority, with considerable numbers of Asians, blacks, and Hispanics but no dominant ethnic group? That preserves the incumbent protection plan while (in name, at least) satisfying any potential VRA requirements.
http://www.swingstateproject.c…
For your consideration.
I’ll take a look at doing this later tonight, if I get a chance…
and on the surface I agree 100% that DOJ cannot force a second VRA seat in SE Virginia
1. Trying to be careful here and not called a liar, again, but Bartlett case says 50% for protected minority. That’s 50% VAP for a particular minority group not a group of minorities. So for AA’s in SE Virginia that more like 53 to 54% or more to get to 50% AA.
2. The framework of this SE VA seat would be Norfolk, Portsmouth, Newport News and Hampton city. Those four places have 80% of the folks needed for a CD but just regular AA% looks like 45% for those areas. I don’t think you can get to 50% VAP without splitting and cutting up county and city lines. That’s not required under Section II.
3. In NOVA section II as modified by Bartlett & Shaw does not required a minority majority seat because no protected minority gets to 50% VAP. Hispanics, Asians and AA’s cannot be combined as they are not specific protected communities.
That’s my reading of the law and as noted the very bright congressman involved in this VA map are following my same legal logic. Believe me Bobby Scott would be wanting a second AA seat in SE virginia if it could be had.
VA-01 (Dark Ocean Blue)
Population:
727,325
71.6% White VAP
2008 Vote:
44.7% Obama (D)
55.3% McCain (R)
Hampton Roads/Richmond Close-up
VA-02 (Dark Forest Green)
Population:
727,229
65.5% White VAP
2008 Vote:
49.7% Obama (D)
50.3% McCain (R)
VA-03 (Dark Magenta)
Population:
726,746
50.2% African American VAP
39.5% White VAP
2008 Vote:
74.3% Obama (D)
25.7% McCain (R)
VA-04 (Deep Red)
Population:
727,209
62.6% White VAP
2008 Vote:
49.8% Obama (D)
50.2% McCain (R)
VA-05 (Light Gold)
Population:
726,972
72.5% White VAP
2008 Vote:
45.5% Obama (D)
54.5% McCain (R)
VA-06 (Teal)
Population:
727,999
84.5% White VAP
2008 Vote:
44.5% Obama (D)
55.5% McCain (R)
VA-07 (Silver)
Population:
727,238
71.2% White VAP
2008 Vote:
46.7% Obama (D)
53.3% McCain (R)
NoVA/DC Metro Close-up
VA-08 (Slate Blue)
Population:
728,039
61.0% White VAP
2008 Vote:
65.5% Obama (D)
35.5% McCain (R)
VA-09 (Cyan)
Population:
727,454
91.3% White VAP
2008 Vote:
39.9% Obama (D)
60.1% McCain (R)
VA-10 (Rose Pink)
Population:
727,489
71.3% White VAP
2008 Vote:
50.8% Obama (D)
49.2% McCain (R)
VA-11 (Chartreuse)
Population:
727,324
46.8% White VAP
21.7% Latino VAP
16.8% African American VAP
12.1% Asian American VAP
2008 Vote:
61.9% Obama (D)
38.1% McCain (R)
4 minority majority. Not what they were going for but i thought it was fun to do! If anyone wants stats lemme know.