Swing State Project

Governor Phil Bredesen of Tennessee will be term-limited out of office in two years, meaning that we could see spirited primaries on both sides of the fence for the opportunity to win the state’s top job.

On the Republican side, a number of names have emerged, including U.S. Rep. Zach Wamp, Shelby Co. District Attorney Bill Gibbons, and Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam.

Lincoln Davis and Harold Ford, Jr. have been the Democrats with the most buzz around their potential candidacies, but if it were up to you, who would you like to see run for the job?

Hallelujah!

Jeb Bush: “After thoughtful consideration, I’ve decided not to run for the United States Senate in 2010. “While the opportunity to serve my state and country during these turbulent and dynamic times is compelling, now is not the right time to return to elected office.

What a relief. With Jeb’s name off the table, the open seat of retiring GOP Sen. Mel Martinez is now truly up for grabs.

Public Policy Polling (1/3-4, registered voters):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 48

Peter King (R): 29

Undecided: 23

Caroline Kennedy (D): 46

Peter King (R): 44

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±3.7%)

PPP continues to do yeoman’s work for us in New York, and the results are not terribly surprising: after enduring a remarkably awkward media roll out over the past several weeks, Caroline Kennedy’s stock seems to have taken a big enough hit to cause a sufficient chunk of New York Democrats (a full 25%) to flock to King. Maybe that number would diminish if Kennedy got her act together in a 2010 election campaign, but it sure doesn’t inspire much confidence.

Cuomo, meanwhile, clearly has some fences of his own to mend; African-American voters support him over King by only the most tepid of margins: 35-23. Kennedy scores a much higher 63-28 among these voters, which is the only reason why she’s leading King in a hypothetical match-up.

Is it Xavier time?

An Obama transition team source said a veteran California congressman, Xavier Becerra, has emerged as the leading congressional candidate to replace Richardson, the Hispanic governor of New Mexico, as President-elect Barack Obama’s choice for a job that will include overseeing the 2010 U.S. Census.

“Even though he turned down the trade representative slot, Becerra is not only Hispanic, but he has the skill, talent and experience to do the Commerce job,” said the source, who was not authorized to speak for the president-elect.

“Xavier’s name has gone to the top of the list of potential replacements in part because he is a member of the House leadership, he is well liked, he has very good credentials, and, of course, he was an early Obama backer,” the source said.

(Hat-tip: The Taegan Goddard Experience)

Our statewide recruitment open thread series continues to chug along, and today we’re making a stop in beautiful South Dakota, where Republican Gov. Mike Rounds is term-limited out of office in 2010. Democratic Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin has been a rumored candidate for some time, but if she decides to stay in the House, who should run for the state’s top job? And who might we see line up on the Republican side of the aisle?

For the GOP, frosh Senator John Thune sounds like he’s staying put in his current job, so it doesn’t seem that we’ll see a job swap between Rounds and Thune. While defeating Thune in 2010 doesn’t seem very likely, perhaps some ambitious young Democrat could make a name for him or herself with a spirited campaign. Who might that be?

Brothers and sisters, let us pray:

Republican excitement over the prospect of Jeb Bush running for U.S. Senate has given way to increasing speculation that the former governor will stay out of the race.

Bush declined to comment for this article but was expected to make an announcement perhaps as early as this week. Even with his father on national TV Sunday touting Bush as a terrific potential future senator or president, friends say family considerations could outweigh the pull of public service.

Among other things, the article suggests that Bush might be reluctant to run because it would hurt his consulting business (which I can only assume has been quite lucrative). Please, Jeb, think of your bank account!

Rumblings:

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn met today with Rep. Peter King (R-N.Y.), and intends on supporting him as the congressman strongly considers a run for the Senate in New York.

“Senator Cornyn believes Peter King would be a very formidable candidate. He believes the seat could be in play, and is prepared to commit the resources to win the seat,” said a senior Republican aide familiar with the meeting.

A source close to King confirmed  that the congressman is strongly considering running for the Senate. He is expected to make a final decision whether to run “soon after” Gov. David Paterson appoints a successor for Hillary Clinton’s Senate seat.

As uphill a fight as this might be, I could see King doing this for the same reason guys like Zach Wamp, Adam Putnam, and Pete Hoekstra are all making similar moves: being a House Republican sucks right now, and for the foreseeable future. King also has an additional fire that’s slowly broiling his ass – he’s almost sure to face some unfriendly redistricting in two years’ time.

While I think King would get walloped by almost any Dem, it’s possible a not-ready-for-primetime Caroline Kennedy could be potentially vulnerable. And even she would still be the odds-on favorite. What’s more, this race will cost a fortune, and I really doubt John Cornyn can spare the resources when there are many better targets out there.

Still, it would be fun to watch, and would create a great open-seat race for King’s NY-03 House seat.

This could be a random burp from the rumor mill, but the Stranger (Seattle’s alternative weekly, or more precisely, Seattle’s alternative alternative weekly) is reading some tea leaves and coming up with the conclusion that Chris Gregoire, fresh off her hard-fought re-election victory as Washington governor, is headed to the other Washington to replace fellow western governor Bill Richardson at Commerce.

The concern began today when she backed out of a pre-legislative forum for tomorrow and people realized that no one was sure where she was, other than a statement that “she would be making an announcement Tuesday morning.” The Bellingham Herald reports that she flew to DC on Sunday. And then the Stranger, when calling Gregoire’s spokesperson, got a hilarious series of non-denials:

Q: Is Governor Gregoire going to be Obama’s nominee for Commerce Secretary?

A: “We’re not able to speak to that so we’ll do a release in the morning.”…

Q: Is she going to continue as Governor of Washington State?

A: “I’m not allowed to say.”

If not for the bizarre conversation with the press flack, I wouldn’t give this much weight; this seems a strange departure for Gregoire after having just fought her way to a second term. I could see her jumping to take Attorney General, but Commerce seems an odd fit.

At any rate, one unfortunate side effect would be that Lt. Gov. Brad Owen, who’s generally derided as a bit of a DINO, takes over until the next general election; Owen, however, based on his general lack of ambition, wouldn’t seem likely to endeavor to keep the job on a permanent basis. (Lt. Governor in Washington isn’t elected as part of the same ticket as Governor, and has no statutory duties there than breaking ties in the state senate; Owen has been content to stick with this non-job for well over a decade.)

Update: Andrew at Northwest Progressive Institute, who’s a pretty finger-on-the-pulse guy, says no about Commerce, although that still leaves the question of her surprise announcement:

Gregoire’s legislative director, Marty Brown, is telling reporters that Gregoire did not travel to Washington, D.C. to accept a job with the Obama administration. However, Gregoire is scheduled to make an important announcement tomorrow morning at 6 AM.

A commenter at Daily Kos also reports that Dwight Pelz, the Washington state Dems chair, told him (at tonight’s Drinking Liberally) that she wasn’t headed to Commerce. Well, how about we just start taking bets on what her big announcement is about, instead?

Gov. Paterson should do the right thing and appoint Fran Drescher for Hillary’s Senate seat.