Will They Run Again?

Call it the “rematch watch”, if you will. Here’s a tally of potential rematch-seekers who have either signaled their intentions or are staying mum. If you’ve heard any buzz about any other failed candidates (or toppled incumbents) running again in 2010, let us know in the comments.

CA-03: Bill Durston (D):

After making two unsuccessful tries at knocking off incumbent U.S. Rep. Dan Lungren (R-Gold River), Democrat Bill Durston said he plans on making a third bid in 2010.

Noting how his support in the 3rd Congressional District race improved between 2006 and 2008 – from 37.9 percent to 43.8 – Durston said he believes Lungren could be vulnerable in two years.

CT-04: Chrissy Shays (R):

KING: Chris Shays, two questions. First, where does your party go, and will you come back and run again?

SHAYS: Well, I may. It’s hard to imagine when you just have had a defeat that you thought you were going to win. You know, it kind of says to you I better think this over. My two-year contract was not renewed, Larry.

But, you know what? I’m struck with — and maybe it’s just that I’m still feeling the pain — there is no Republican Congressman in all of New England, 21 seats, all Democrat. There are only three Republican Congressmen in New York, out of 29. You put them together, 50 Congressmen, only three are Republicans.

But in an article published just a few days before his interview on CNN, Shays sent a decidedly different message:

Shays could see himself working back in Connecticut, perhaps New York City or in D.C. In some ways it will also depend on his wife, Betsi, who has a job at the U.S. Department of Education. One thing for sure is that he does not plan to run for elected office again.

“I don’t see myself running for any office,” he said. “I definitely do not see myself running for Congress again.”

GA-12: John Stone (R):

“We beat John Barrow,” Stone said. “What we couldn’t beat was the combination of the (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) coming in here at the last minute and bailing him out and the behind the scenes undermining of our campaign by the (National Republican Congressional Committee). You can’t beat both parties at the same time.” […]

Stone said at his election party in Augusta on Tuesday night that he plans to run against Barrow again in 2010.

MD-01: Andy Harris (R):

State Sen. Andy Harris (R-Cockeysville) said Monday he’ll be running for Maryland’s 1st Congressional District seat again in 2010, according to Queen Anne’s County Republican Central Committee member Diana Waterman. […]

Harris said earlier this month that he had not ruled out a 2010 rematch against incoming U.S. Rep. Frank Kratovil (D-Stevensville), who defeated him by only a few thousand votes for the 1st District seat.

MO-09: Judy Baker (D):

Baker, a state legislator from Columbia fell roughly 2.5 points short of Luetkemeyer’s final tally. She didn’t rule out another congressional campaign. After all, she could have the right mix of fundraising contacts and name recognition to make another go of it in two years.

NH-01: Jeb Bradley (R):

Former U.S. Rep. Jeb Bradley (R-Wolfeboro) said that it is “very unlikely” his name will appear on the ballot in 2010, but did not rule out running for political office in the future.

NY-24: Richard Hanna (R):

Later, in an interview with The Daily Star, he said he may run again in 2010, having come close on his first political outing.

“I’m not ruling it out, but it’s nothing I have to decide right away,” he said. “I’ve just spent about $650,000 of my own money and a year of my life on this, but I’ve learned a lot and I’m glad I did it.”

PA-04: Melissa Hart (R):

The once rising political star said she will return to her private life as a lawyer, where she said she is very happy. She doesn’t foresee running for any elected office anytime soon.

“I have no plans to run for anything,” she said.

PA-10: Dan Meuser (R, ’08 primary loser):

No Republican has announced a challenge to Mr. Carney, but already the political rumor mill has Mr. Meuser sizing up another try.

What’s feeding that rumor is Mr. Meuser’s August resignation from his job as president of Pride Mobility Products in Exeter, his family’s company. Mr. Meuser said he was leaving to “pursue a full-time career in public service.”

He was no more specific about running in 2010 last week.

“I’m not going to offer any real commitment either way,” Mr. Meuser said. “I’m keeping all my options open.”

PA-11: Lou Barletta (R):

Two weeks after narrowly losing his bid for Congress, Republican Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta says he’s not even thinking about whether or not he’ll try again-yet.

“I haven’t given that any thought at all right now,” he told PolitickerPA.com in a phone interview Wednesday. “I’m going to just sit back and take a little time at all to reflect and then relax after a hard-fought campaign.”

PA-12: William Russell (R):

Just eight days after Election Day, Bill Russell says he’s ready for round two against U.S. Rep. John Murtha (D-Johnstown).

The Republican congressional candidate, who received a late avalanche of attention of attention in his race against the 34-year incumbent before ultimately falling by 16 points, told PolitickerPA.com Tuesday that he plans to run again in 2010.

SC-01: Linda Ketner (D):

Following her narrow loss in the 1st District Congressional race, Linda Ketner announced Tuesday she’s forming a new nonpartisan, nonprofit group to try to make the coastal district a better place to live.

She also wouldn’t rule out running again in 2010.

MN-Sen: Coleman’s lead expands to 282; challenges explode to 5625

After a week of recounting, with 88% of the votes recounted:

http://ww2.startribune.com/new…

Coleman has added to his lead, partly by challenging more ballots (2885 to 2738), but also

because there aren’t many Democratic areas to recount.  St. Louis County is complete, Hennepin and Ramsey Counties are 87% and 81% complete, respectively.  Of the eight counties not yet started, seven of them went to Coleman.

So is it over for Al?  Without challenges, he’s only picked up 80 votes.  And with the strong possibility that the missing absentee ballots might not be counted, it’s getting grimmer for Franken.

Lieberman Donated to Gordon Smith & Peter King

What an asshole:

Lieberman, through his Reuniting Our Country PAC, gave Smith’s reelection bid $5,000 on Oct. 10, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission. …

The same day he wrote a check to Smith, Lieberman’s ROC PAC gave $5,000 to Rep. Peter King, the Long Island Republican. In radio and TV appearances the final days of the campaign, Lieberman also frequently said that a Democratic majority of 60 votes, a filibuster-proof level, would be a bad thing.

I’m sure Lieberman gave as late as he did to try to hide the contributions – he did something similar with his shady petty cash accounts in 2006. Senate fundraising reports take forever to process – believe it or not, they are filed in hardcopy form and scanned in! It’s insane (and of course the GOP has blocked the ridiculously obvious reforms that would bring the Senate into the 20th century). It also means that final Senate reports are not publicly available until after the election, which totally defeats the point of campaign finance disclosure laws.

The Peter King donation would have been knowable, but few people were looking since King didn’t have competitive race. But for that reason – the closeness of the contest – the donation to El Gordo was the far bigger deal. It was disgusting enough that Joementia vocally supported Susan Collins and Norm Coleman (hell, if Franken loses, we can blame it on Lieberman). But cutting a check? That is truly a crime.

Like I said, what an asshole – not that we didn’t know that already.

Governor: Complete 2009/2010 Outlook

After reading a lot of diaries on the upcoming elections in 2010, as well as seeing early predictions from Charlie Cook, I decided to compile tables of all the races that will occur in 2010. For the governors, I will also include the 2009 races in New Jersey and Virginia. Tomorrow I will have the complete outlook for the Senators up in 2010, and Sunday I will have a complete table of House races worth watching. I will also update regularly any changes in these races as 2009 and 2010 go on.

NOTE: Just because a candidate is listed in the table does not necessarily mean that I think they will win. I am only listing the candidates that have received buzz about running.

And about the candidates such as Richardson and Napolitano, who will serve in the Obama administration, they are staying on this list until they are sworn in to their positions. Then their counterparts (Diane Denish and Jan Brewer respectively) will take their places.

The table is over the flip.

State Incumbent Term-Limited Potential to Flip Potential Challengers
Alabama
Bob Riley
Yes
Medium
Artur Davis (AL-07)
Jim Folsom, Jr. (Lt. Gov.)
Ron Sparks (Ag. Com.)
Mike Rogers (AL-03)
Troy King (Att. Gen.)
Alaska
Sarah Palin
No
Low
Ethan Berkowtiz (St. Sen.)
Eric Croft (St. Rep.)
Diane Benson (2006 AK-AL nominee)
Arizona
Janet Napolitano
Yes
Medium
Terry Goddard (Att. Gen.)
Jan Brewer (Sec. of State)
Dean Martin (State Treasurer)
Jeff Flake (AZ-06)
Arkansas
Mike Beebe
No
Low
California
Arnold Schwarzenegger
Yes
High
Dianne Feinstein (U.S. Senator)
John Garamendi (Lt. Gov.)
Jerry Brown (Att. Gen.)
Bill Lockyer (State Treasurer)
Debra Bowen (Sec. of State)
Jack O’Connell (Ed. Sup.)
Loretta Sanchez (CA-47)
Antonio Villaraigosa (L.A. Mayor)
Gavin Newsom (S.F. Mayor)
Tom McClintock (State Sen.)
Darrell Issa (CA-49)
Steve Poizner (Ins. Comm.)
Meg Whitman (former eBay CEO)
Carly Fiorina (former HP CEO)
Colorado
Bill Ritter
No
Low
Connecticut
Jodi Rell
No
Low
Richard Blumenthal (Att. Gen.)
Florida
Charlie Crist
No
Low
Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (FL-20)
Ron Klein (FL-22)
Bill McCollum (Att. Gen.)
Georgia
Sonny Perdue
Yes
Medium
Thurbert Baker (Att. Gen.)
DuBose Porter (House Min. Leader)
David Poythress
Jim Marshall (GA-08)
John Oxendine (Ins. Comm.)
Casey Cagle (Lt. Gov.)
Karen Handel (Sec. of State)
Hawaii
Linda Lingle
Yes
High
Neil Abercrombie (HI-01)
Mazie Hirono (HI-02)
Mufi Hannemann (Honolulu Mayor)
Colleen Hanabusa (St. Sen. Pres.)
Ed Case (former HI-02 rep.)
James Aiona (Lt. Gov.)
Idaho
Butch Otter
No
Low
Illinois
Rod Blagojevich
No
Medium-Low
Bill Brady (State Sen.)
Lisa Madigan (Att. Gen.)
Dan Hynes (Comptroller)
Tom Cross (State Rep.)
Mark Kirk (IL-10)
Iowa
Chet Culver
No
Low
Kansas
Kathleen Sebelius
Yes
Medium-High
Mark Parkinson (Lt. Gov)
Sam Brownback (U.S. Senator)
Jerry Moran (KS-01)
Todd Tiahrt (KS-04)
Maine
John Baldacci
Yes
Medium-Low
Tom Allen (ME-01)
Maryland
Martin O’Malley
No
Low
Massachusetts
Deval Patrick
No
Low
Michigan
Jennifer Granholm
Yes
Medium
John Cherry (Lt. Gov.)
Bart Stupak (MI-01)
Mike Cox (Att. Gen.)
Terri Land (Sec. of State)
Candice Miller (MI-10)
Mike Rogers (MI-08)
Minnesota
Tim Pawlenty
No
Medium
Mike Hatch (former Att. Gen.)
R.T. Rybak (Minn. Mayor)
Nebraska
Dave Heineman
No
Low
Nevada
Jim Gibbons
No
High
Barbara Buckley (Assembly Speaker)
Oscar Goodman (Vegas Mayor)
Catherine Cortez-Masto (Att. Gen.)
Rory Reid (Clark Co. Comm’r.)
Dean Heller (NV-02)
New Hampshire
John Lynch
No
Low
New Jersey
Jon Corzine
No
Medium
Chris Christie (U.S. Attorney)
Steve Lonegan (former Bogota mayor)
Brian Levine (Franklin Township mayor)
Rick Merkt (St. Asm.)
New Mexico
Bill Richardson
Yes
Low
Diane Denish (Lt. Gov.)
New York
David Paterson
No
Low
Andrew Cuomo (Att. Gen.)
Tom Suozzi (Nassau Co. Exec.)
John Faso (St. Asm. Min. Leader)
Rudy Giuliani (former NYC Mayor)
Peter King (NY-03)
Ohio
Ted Strickland
No
Low
Mike DeWine (Former U.S. Senator)
Rob Portman (Former OMB Director/Rep.)
Jim Petro (Former Att. Gen.)
Betty Montgomery (Former Att. Gen.)
John Kasich (Former Rep.)
Oklahoma
Brad Henry
Yes
High
Drew Edmonson (Att. Gen.)
Jari Askins (Lt. Gov.)
Tom Cole (OK-04)
Mary Fallin (OK-05)
Oregon
Ted Kulongoski
Yes
Medium-Low
Brad Avakian (Lab. Comm.)
Earl Blumenauer (OR-03)
Bill Bradbury (Sec. of State)
Peter DeFazio (OR-04)
Randall Edwards (Treasurer)
Ben Westlund (St. Sen.)
Greg Walden (OR-02)
Pennsylvania
Ed Rendell
Yes
Medium
Michael Nutter (Philly Mayor)
John Shapiro (State Rep.)
Jack Wagner (Aud. Gen.)
Tom Corbett (Att. Gen.)
Melissa Hart (former PA-04 rep.)
Pat Toomey (2004 Sen. candidate)
Rhode Island
Don Carcieri
Yes
High
David Cicilline (Prov. Mayor)
Frank Caprio (State Treasurer)
Stephen Laffey (Cranston Mayor)
South Carolina
Mark Sanford
Yes
Medium-Low
Paul Agnew (St. Rep.)
Joe Erwin (former State party chair)
Todd Rutherford (St. Rep.)
Henry McMaster (Att. Gen.)
André Bauer (Lt. Gov.)
J. Gresham Barrett (SC-03)
South Dakota
Mike Rounds
Yes
Low
Scott Heidepriem (St. Sen.)
Mike Huether
Dennis Daugaard (Lt. Gov.)
Gary Hanson (ex-Sioux Falls Mayor)
Tennessee
Phil Bredesen
Yes
Medium
Lincoln Davis (TN-04)
Matt Kisber (TN Econ. Dev. comm.)
Kim McMillan (former State Rep.)
Harold Ford (former TN-09 Rep.)
Marsha Blackburn (TN-07)
Bill Gibbons (Nashville D.A.)
Beth Harwell (St. Rep.)
Bill Haslam (Knoxville Mayor)
Ron Ramsey (St. Sen.)
Texas
Rick Perry
No
Medium
Bill White (Houston mayor)
Kirk Watson (State Sen.)
Kinky Friedman (’06 Ind. candidate)
Kay Bailey Hutchison (U.S. Senator)
David Dewhurst (Lt. Gov.)
Vermont
Jim Douglas
No
Low
Virginia
Tim Kaine
Yes
Medium-High
Bob McDonnell (Att. Gen.)
Terry McAuliffe (former DNC chair)
Creigh Deeds (State Sen.)
Brian Moran (State Del.)
Wisconsin
Jim Doyle
Yes
Medium
Barbara Lawton (Lt. Gov.)
Tommy Thompson (former Gov.)
Scott Walker (Milwaukee Co. Exec.)
Wyoming
Dave Freudenthal
Yes
High

GA-Sen: Seventh Straight Poll Has Martin Trailing

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (11/23-25, likely voters, 11/17-18 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 46 (45)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 52 (51)

Undecided: 2 (4)

(MoE: ±4%)

The problem for Jim Martin is that, for him to win, every single poll of the run-off needs to be wrong:

It is possible, of course, since everyone seems to be struggling in terms of projecting turnout (as you might expect with a one-off election like this). But I should point out that the first-round polls were pretty good (they had Saxby up four in aggregate, while his final margin was three).

Martin does have a 56-44 lead among early voters. Unfortunately, that’s rather similar to his 56-39 lead with early voters in the final R2K poll before Nov. 4th – clearly, it seems, all of the libertarian’s support migrated to Saxby. However, if election day turnout among Republicans is weak, there’s a chance this early vote might carry Martin, despite the much lower early African American turnout. Interestingly, it looks like a greater proportion of likely voters have voted early this time – 28% vs. 12% in that late October poll.

We’ll know soon enough.

NV-Sen: Things Look a Little Dicey for Reid

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (11/23-25, likely voters):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 46

Jon Porter (R): 40

(MoE: ±4%)

Looks like Nevadans are feeling kind of lukewarm about Harry Reid these days. (“Lukewarm” and “Harry Reid” in the same sentence? Wow, I’ll bet that’s never happened before…) In a prospective 2010 matchup, he’s beating Jon Porter (who recently got bounced from his NV-03 seat by Dina Titus) by six points, although he’s well below the 50% comfort level.

The numbers below the fold look worse for Reid; his approval/disapproval rating is only 38/54 (luckily, Porter’s are little better at 40/39). When asked whether they’d choose to reelect Reid or consider replacing him, respondents say 32% reelect, 23% consider someone else, and 41% say replace him. Against a strong challenger with a statewide reputation, Reid could face some real trouble, leaving him possibly the only endangered Dem-held seat in 2010. However, between the badly depleted Republican bench in Nevada (Porter may truly be their best bet, as Lt. Governor Brian Krolicki may be looking at indictment rather than a run against Reid, and Rep. Dean Heller is likely to either stay in place or go for Governor) and Nevada’s rapid demographics-driven bluening, this race could just as easily turn into a non-issue.

Meet John Fleming, Republican Candidate for LA-04

First off why hasn’t the DCCC been spending more hitting this guy? There seems to be a total lack of the hustle we showed in TX-23 in 2006.

First off, Fleming has been forced by the lack of any type of supporter base to self-fund himself to the degree of 900,000 of 1.3 million total. He’s a doctor from Minden, a small community near Shreveport. Why isn’t Carmouche running away with this seat? Republicans only got a third tier candidate, and he, Jeff Thompson, who had all the infrastructure support of McCrery and the Chamber of Commerce, lost to this guy. Fleming had to go through a lot nastier primary, how has Carmouche not capitlized on this?

First off though, you should be concerned that Fleming could be a congressman. Fleming supports abolishing Social Security and our fairly weighted tax system in favor of a high national sales tax that would hurt poor and middle class people the most while largely allowed wealthy blessed people like him, that can waste a million dollars on a vanity congressional run and complain about high taxes at the same time, to be able to have to pay almost no taxes. A few thousand dollars at most, even if he makes six hundred thousand dollars or more.

Why are we not targeting this? Republicans really want this. The Republican Study Committee in the house has held fundraisers, Dick Cheney has come down, and the RCCC is spending heavily here. But the DCCC is just ah, so so here. They’re not spending much, or organizing much with staff. Where’s Clinton and others here? Where’s the hustles and fundraisers? Fleming is the definition of a far-right nucase and this isa great, rare opportunity, very rare opportunity, for Democrats to go after an open seat in Louisiana.  Republicans are trying to held this far right doctor sneak in agianst the best interest of his district. He’ll work non-stop to block healthcare reform, and he will try to put forward his crazy ideas on social security and the tax system. Come on people, slacken up a bit, start working, both Carmouche, us, and the DCCC, John Fleming is about the worst Congressman a district could have, come on we cannot let Republicans end their year with a bright spot, holding a conservative open seat with a nutcase., we cannot give them the mo going into the 2009 elections and 2010 elections. Republicans are working harder than us here, because they now how important it is to win it. Same in Georgia. We’re becoming apathetic again, and that is my fear; that we’ll become a complacent party that no longer cares about competing in tough places and that’s the first step back down.

P.S. Please vote in the poll, I use to determine readership, a sort ofgia counter.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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KY-Sen: Statewide Recruitment Thread

Jim Bunning swears he’ll run again. After his nearly disastrous re-election campaign in 2004, when Democrat Dan Mongiardo (allegedly one of “Saddam Hussein’s sons“) nearly toppled him, even as Bush won the state by almost 20 points.

Who would you like to see run against Bunning in 2010? Luckily, we are blessed with a fairly deep Dem bench in Kentucky, including many statewide officeholders who won by impressive margins in 2007.