LA-04: It Begins

The DCCC is up on the air with its first negative ad of the race to replace retiring GOP Rep. Jim McCrery, which will be decided on December 6th. You can check that ad out here.

The D-trip spent $77,000 on this first ad buy (that may sound like chicken feed, but keep in mind that this district ranks pretty highly on SSP’s Bang-for-Buck Index). We’ll be keeping track of these expenditures closely. For their part, the NRCC is promising to “spend big” on this race:

…National Republicans said they’re planning to spend big on the race, with their own advertising on the air soon.

“We are taking the necessary steps in order to prepare for a competitive race,” said Ken Spain, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

This race is very much a tossup at this point. In our favor, Democrats appear to have the superior candidate in Caddo Parish District Attorney Paul Carmouche, while Republicans have a self-funding physician, John Fleming, who just emerged from a relentlessly negative primary runoff.

Combined, Carmouche and his primary challenger, Willie Banks, received just under 150,000 votes on Tuesday. In the GOP primary, only 77,000 ballots were cast. But don’t let those numbers fool you — in the 6th District primaries earlier in the year, many, many more Democratic ballots were cast than Republican primary votes, but Don Cazayoux only narrowly defeated Woody Jenkins in the May speial election. Similarly, I’m sure that Carmouche picked up the support of more than a few DINOs on Tuesday. His task will be to mobilize his base, as well as the many African-Americans who voted for Banks while keeping up his conservative Democrat crossover appeal. With the NRCC fully engaged here, this one is poised to be a real dogfight.

Van Hollen – Why so FEW Seats??

Van Hollen didn’t do such a spectacular job, especially when this was an election based on change.  Some races where the DCCC spent were already decided beforehand.  25 Democrats win Republican seats (assuming Perriello and Kilroy win, yet Brown does not).  Total gain is 21 seats, yet 13 required little to no effort.  The end result is that Van Hollen helped gain twelve seats (Bright, Schauer, Minnick, Kratovil, Musgrave, Halvorson, Adler, Teague, Heinrich, Boccieri, Kilroy, and English), yet four Democratic seats were lost in the process, leading to a net effort gain of 8 seats. :

Shays (CT) – High turnout from Bridgeport (not DCCC spending) is what cost Shays.  Also Himes had more than $3 million and the NRCC spent not a single cent to save Shays.  Advertising on NYC stations didn’t make sense, especially considering that the district is covered by two media markets (Hartford and NYC).

Feeney (FL) – His “apology,” not DCCC attack ads are essentially what cost him his seat.

Keller (FL) – The DCCC stepped in at the last minute, yet Keller was defeated because constituents viewed him as ineffective, yet they also were not wowed by Grayson either, therefore it became a choice between the lesser of two evils.  Demographics and a poor primary showing were also clues that Keller was going to lose.  It was essentially a calf on the prairie without its mother seeking a way to survive without being seen.

Hayes (NC), Chabot (OH), and Drake (VA) – Turnout by African-Americans are what cost all three their seats.

AZ (1st), NY (13), NY (25) and VA (11) – All of these were easy WINS since Republicans recruited poor candidates.

NV (3rd) – The high unemployment, changing demographics, and the nation’s highest foreclosures are what cost Porter, not anything the DCCC did.

Knollenberg (MI) – Changing demographics cost him.  Michigan Republicans in general struggled and most of the Republican seats lost in the state House occurred near or in Oakland County.

Goode (VA) – Eden’s Curve is what is costing him and what will cost him in the end.

Spending which did make sense:

Bright (AL)

Griffith (AL)

Musgrace (CO)

Mario Diaz-Balart (FL)

Sali (ID)

Halvorson (IL)

Kirk (IL)

Boswell (KY) – His problem is that he didn’t know how to raise money on his own.

Kratovil (MD)

Schauer (MI)

Madia (MN) – Wrong candidate (yet right district is the problem.

Esch (NE) – Another case of wrong candidate (yet right district).  He came off as preppy and privileged.

Derby (NV) – However, spending came way too late.

Shea-Porter (NH)

Adler (NJ) – He seemed an easy win early on, yet he struggled greatly in the close.  DCCC funding most likely made the difference.

Stender (NJ) – Another case of wrong candidate (yet right district).  Her negatives for a non-incumbent were fairly high.

Teague (NM)

Heinrich (NM)

Kuhl (NY) – The incumbent cost himself the seat, yet DCCC funding did help.

Boccieri (OH)

Kilroy (OH) – Another case of wrong candidate (yet right district).  Her negatives were high.  She may slide through, but a primary challenge cannot be ruled out.

Dahlkemper (PA) – Labor unions essentially helped deliver this victory.

Brown (SC) – Very vulnerable Republican, yet Ketner being lesbian didn’t help in the South.

Reichert (WA)

Capito (WV) – However, it came somewhat late.

Races which should have been targeted yet were not:

Latham (IA)

Lungren (CA)

Calvert (CA)

Bilbray (CA) – DCCC was here early on, yet pulled out.  Guess it was to waste money elsewhere.

Arcuri (NY) – This is a DEM seat which was almost lost.

Tiberi (OH)

Gerlach (PA)

Wilson (SC)

McCaul (TX)

Wasted Money:

Shadegg (AZ)

Young (AK)

Lampson (TX)

Scott (GA)

Open Seat (MO-9th) – Can’t be pro-choice in a rural conservative pro-life district.

Open Seat (MO-6th) – A city woman would have a difficult time winning over rural votes necessary for victory.

Lincoln Diaz-Balart – Once he showed a video of his opponent punching a youngster the DCCC should have concentrate all of its attention on Mario.

Souder – Sure he’s incompetent, yet his opponent barely lived in the district.

Bachmann – Sure it would be wonderful to have her gone, yet when Tinklenberg brought in more than $1 million he should have spent that on his own without the DCCC taking a calculated risk (the NRCC already had stepped out).  The district is very Republican and Bachmann’s “I’m Sorry” ad saved her.

Schmidt – Another nut that needs to go, but Wulsin’s strong showing in 2006 can be attributed to a Dem sweep statewide.

Trauner – His strong showing in 2006 can be attributed to low approval ratings for Cubin and coattails from Freudenthal.

Open Seat (NY-26) – It’s a conservative area and Kryzan may have been too liberal for the mostly rural district.  In addition, this district is most likely going to be split up in 2010 redistricting.

Murtha (PA) and Kanjorski (PA) didn’t help very much either.

Also, in an attempt to save Cazayoux the DCCC should have attacked Jackson, yet in a way which didn’t come off as being offensive to African-Americans.

WA-08: Burner Concedes

Statement from the Burner campaign (via email):

“It is likely at this point that Congressman Reichert has won re-election, and while we will certainly ensure that every valid vote is counted, we accept the decision of the voters.

“I would like to thank the thousands of people who put so much time and effort into the campaign, as well as the countless thousands more who went beyond voting to actively participate in our democratic process this year. The election of Barack Obama as our new President will ensure that the change to the direction of our country called for in this campaign is realized in the new year.”

With both MD-01 and now WA-08 called, the only House races left on the table are AK-AL, CA-04, CA-44, OH-15, and VA-05. Of these, I think we only really have a reasonable shot at OH-15 and maybe CA-04. VA-05 is all but in the bag.

UPDATE by Crisitunity: This evening’s ballot dump in Pierce County probably was the last straw; Reichert’s lead shot up to 8,000 votes (a 51.5-48.5 margin, with about 80% counted so far), whereas his margin of victory was only 7,000 votes in 2006.

Van Hollen Reconsidering DCCC Exit

Roll Call:

Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) is reconsidering his decision to turn down a second term as chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee under renewed pressure from a persuasive Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), sources confirmed Friday.

If Van Hollen opts to stay on at the campaign arm, he would step away from a possible leadership battle with another Pelosi ally, Rep. John Larson (D-Conn.), for the chairmanship of the Democratic Caucus.

Van Hollen earlier this week made clear he had no interest in another turn leading the DCCC. “I’m exploring all my options,” he told reporters Wednesday at a news conference to review the roughly 20-seat gain he engineered on Tuesday for the party. “One option I’m not exploring is continuing as chairman of the DCCC.”

But sources say Pelosi is leaning hard on Van Hollen to take on another two-year stint. The move would ease the way for Larson, currently the Caucus vice chairman, to advance a rung on the leadership ladder.

If Van Hollen decides not to take the gig, two of the likeliest alternatives would be Debbie Wasserman-Schultz and Artur Davis. I’ll take CVH over those two any day of the week.

Weekly Open Thread: Post-Election Edition

In the diaries, longtime SSP member trowaman gives us a nice roundup of Texas election results — up and down the ballot.

And if you’re looking for the latest numbers from the undecided House and Senate races, TheUnknown285 has an extremely handy list of results pages for each race.

UPDATE (David): Some additional stuff:

• Come help us with a crowdsourcing project to compile presidential voting results by congressional district.

• Here’s another group project: compiling state legislature results.

• I think this describes us pretty well. (Hat-tip: MaryNYC)

VA-05: Perriello Declares Victory

Roll Call:

With the canvassing process virtually complete in Virginia’s 5th district and attorney Tom Perriello (D) ahead of Rep. Virgil Goode (R) by nearly 750 votes, the Democratic challenger declared victory Friday afternoon.

“It looks like the outcome is now certain. We are going to win this race and pull off the upset,” Perriello said.

Perriello said his campaign would now be moving into a transition phase and in that effort he has enlisted the help of former Rep. L. F. Payne (D-Va.), who held the seat from 1998 until retiring in 1996. Goode, then a Democrat, won the open seat and succeeded Payne.

Payne “will be helping us to make sure that we can hit the ground running,” Perriello said. “We are eager to get to work to try to bring jobs back to the area.”

But in a statement released earlier Friday afternoon, Goode said he is not ready to concede the race.

Perriello is holding onto a 749-vote lead right now, or a margin of 0.24%. Goode is praying for some serious irregularities in Dem-friendly precincts, and he’ll likely ask for a recount (as is the right of any candidate down by less than 0.5%), but this one is looking very good for us.

I would call this win a pretty nice cherry on top of Tuesday’s electoral sundae.

GA-Sen: McCain to Stump for Chambliss

Well, now that the Republican ticket has a lot of free time on their hands, it looks like they’re about to lend an assist to their buddy Saxby Chambliss in his December runoff election against hard-charging Democrat Jim Martin:

U.S. Sen. John McCain will come to Georgia to campaign for Republican U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss, the Moultrie lawmaker’s campaign confirmed Friday.

“We just have to work out the dates,” said Chambliss’s spokeswoman, Michelle Grasso.

Grasso said the campaign is also in touch with Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s office about a possible Georgia appearance.

“She wants to come down, but right now we are working with her schedulers to see if that’s possible,” Grasso said.

It’s no secret that Martin’s strategy is to turn out as many Obama fans as possible for the runoff — he’s already airing an ad hitching himself to Obama’s wagon. But will Obama lift a finger? My guess is not likely — especially with the news that McCain will campaign for Chambliss.

Look at it this way: Obama’s already beaten McCain once. I don’t think he wants to turn this race into a proxy war, allowing the pundits to chatter about how McCain “beat Obama” in this contest if Martin lost. No, I have a feeling that Obama will stay on the sidelines here.

Martin’s best hope may be to get Bill Clinton, the last Democratic presidential candidate to win this state, to return on his behalf.

Contribute to a State Legislative Round-Up

I’ve been searching the internet for a complete (or close to complete) list of the new make-ups of all of the stat legislatures, but so far, I haven’t found any.  Therefore, I thought we might put one together.  Therefore, please respond to this diary with the new make-up of your state’s legislature (and any other you know) and if either party gained seats and if so, how many.  Also note if any seats are still too close to call.

I’ll start off with my own state, Texas.  House: 76R/74D (although one more R seat is going to a recount); D+3 (could be +4 after the recount).  Senate: 18R/13D (plus one more going to a run-off); D+1 (could be +2 after the run-off).