Swing State Project

From the Washington Post:

After bringing at least two dozen new Democrats to the House in Tuesday’s elections, Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D) has agreed to try to duplicate that achievement in 2010 as chair of the caucus’s campaign arm. He also will take on an added role, coordinating policy decisions between the House and President-elect Barack Obama’s administration.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) will formally announce Van Hollen’s expanded portfolio today, according to informed party sources.

I’m pleased. While I didn’t completely agree with all of the spending decisions this fall out of the DCCC’s independent expenditure arm this fall, of the responsibilities that CVH did have direct influence over — namely, fundraising and candidate recruitment — he did quite well. And considering that two of the alternatives for this gig are Debbie Wasserman Schultz (someone who dragged her heels on supporting Democratic challengers in South Florida) and Artur Davis (someone who violently kneecapped a fellow Alabama Dem in a hotly-contested race), another term with Van Hollen is a relief.

The easiest thing for CVH to do would be to go out on a high note, having netted 24 seats this year (including the special election wins and counting VA-05 as a pickup). 2010 will undoubtedly feature a good deal of defense, so having a strong chair capable of recruiting good challengers for viable targets and open seats is crucial.

(Hat-tip: MyDD)

Yesterday, I asked you to help Democrats Jim Martin and Mark Begich via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page as the Georgia Senate race heads toward a run-off against Shameless Saxby Chambliss and the Alaska Senate race heads toward a protracted vote count and possible legal battle against convicted felon Ted Stevens.

You responded with hundreds of dollars and we are so close to our goal on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page – please help Martin and Begich meet the goal this weekend:

Democrat	Current	Goal	Difference
Jim Martin	$3,385 $3,900	$4,000	$615 just $100
Mark Begich	$5,553 $5,820	$6,000	$447 just $180

Please make a contribution today via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page and help Jim Martin and Mark Begich eject Saxby Chambliss and Ted Stevens from the U.S. Senate.

Last week I wrote about a new crowdsourcing project we’re undertaking here at SSP: compiling presidential voting results by congressional district. Here’s a quick status report:

• We’ve figured out ways to calculated pres-by-CD for a little over half the states. See this spreadsheet, which anyone can edit.

• However, there are many states where we don’t have a planned method for calculating the numbers. If you have thoughts about how to figure out those states, please add them (and any links you have to official or soon-to-be-official results).

• Separately, if you’ve started doing work on some actual numbers, I strongly encourage you to share that work in separate Google spreadsheets. I’ve added a new column on the right in the “mothership” spreadsheet called “Calculations.” Please post URLs to any other spreadsheets you’ve created to crunch the data.

And if you have any other ideas for this project, please share them here in comments. Thanks!

UPDATE: Here’s a very simple example of what I mean by “showing your work.” The CT SoS very kindly makes raw presidential vote totals by CD available – you can see them in this PDF. I’ve uploaded a Google spreadsheet into which I’ve imported those numbers from the PDF, then did some super-simple math to calculate the percentages in each district.

Even if you’re working with something more complicated like counties or precincts, you can and should create something similar to my CT sheet. That way, everyone can see what data you’re using and verify that things look right.

UPDATE 2: Thanks to an awesome find by statsgeek, I put together a spreadsheet for MN as well. There are two tabs – “Formatted Data” is just a pretty condensed version of the raw data, which you can see in all its glory in the second tab. The state of MN actually made this extremely easy, going so far as to calculate the percentages each candidate got. It was just a matter of parsing the file properly and digging out the right numbers.

This has no bearing on anything in particular, but I noticed it some time ago and it’s been driving me insane…

A win for Stivers would give the Ohio delegation four — yes, FOUR — members named Steve.  

It started out with just Chabot and LaTourette.  Lo and behold, Chabot came to be challenged (ultimately successfully) by none other than a fellow Steve (Driehaus). Still, this was to be no more than a preservation of the nomenclatural status quo, switching out a bad Steve for a good one.

Yet then Steve Austria won the Republican primary in OH-07. Holding out little hope for Democrats winning this seat, my attention fell to OH-15, where I assumed (probably along with many others) that Mary Jo, having been campaigning for four years, would handily beat Steve Stivers.

Election Night: the race was called for Stivers.  My heart was broken on many levels — a good, hard-working Democrat had come up short, a premier pick-up opportunity had been missed, and Ohio’s Steve contingent had been **shudder** doubled.

But soon came word that the race was in fact too close to call!

Fearing the catastrophic glut of Steves I’d seen on the horizon, I began refreshing the Ohio Secretary of State’s page every few hours to monitor the results out of the 15th District. As of this moment, Superfluous Steve #4 is leading by 146 votes.

Such has been my life for the past five days.

Can Mary Jo still staunch the oncoming Tstevenami?

UPDATED: I’m proud/dumbstruck to announce that this very diary was featured on tonight’s Rachel Maddow Show.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26…

There’s been a lot of online sadness in the blogosphere over Darcy Burner’s concession in the race in Washington’s Eighth District, as well there should be. In any other district, I don’t think I’d feel compelled to write add one more post-mortem, but my two cents might actually be worth three or four cents, seeing as how I spend a big part of my time in this district (I live in Seattle, but I spend eight hours a day slaving over a hot computer in Bellevue).

One of the main contentions that I’ve seen elsewhere is that the Seattle Times threw the election with its last minute hit piece on Burner’s academic credentials. While it was pretty lazy, poorly researched journalism and it certainly didn’t help Burner’s cause (although their subsequent follow-up article about Reichert’s own rather underwhelming academic background may actually have helped her), I can’t see this having turned the election. In my gut, it seems more like something that turned quickly into the usual ‘he said, she said’ noise that dominates horse-race coverage and riles up the partisans but whooshes right past low-information voters. It may have been the decisive moment for a few undecideds, but I can’t see it making 8,000 votes worth of difference.

Beyond my gut, there’s also the matter that the numbers for this race right now are almost identical to those from two years ago (51.5-48.5) despite the injection of a lot more voters in a presidential year. It doesn’t seem like the needle moved much over two years… which to me suggests that the ‘lack of [elective] experience’ meme, which did Burner in last time, continued to be top-of-mind. There’s also the matter of polls: the one poll that had trendlines representing both before and after the Seattle Times story, the Daily Kos-sponsored Research 2000 poll, gave Reichert an 8-pt lead before the story and found the race a tie after. (Granted, there was an economic crisis somewhere in there too, so there may have been competing currents at work.) Finally, in my own experience phonebanking in the days before the election, I never ran into anyone who said the degree flap was an issue (although in comments mcjoan claims to have experienced it a lot, so your mileage may vary).

More over the flip…

One other sentiment I saw a lot in comments on this race is that it’s just a hard district for Democrats. Again, I’d have to disagree with that; it’s a D+2.3 district, and as we saw a few days ago, this is the fourth most Democratic-leaning district in the country that still has a Republican representative. What we have here is an opponent who is unusually well-tailored for the district instead. My sense is that there are at least three different mini-districts competing in this district: Bellevue, which is increasingly diverse and full of younger tech professionals (and becoming more liberal, like many other 50s-era inner-ring suburbs); further out suburbs like Sammamish and Issaquah which are more dominated by older, more economically conservative voters (many of whom are probably voted for Obama, but are ticket-splitters who remember the once-dominant northwestern moderate Republicanism and will opt for someone who promises to restore that); and the rural/exurban reaches of the district, which tend to be more right-wing, albeit in a backwoodsy libertarian/leave-me-alone way.

Reichert’s unusual skill is that he manages to appeal to two of those camps: he’s macho and law-and-order enough to appeal to the rural areas (and more blue-collar suburbs built around Boeing machinists, like Auburn, where Reichert is originally from)… but he also has the moderate, bipartisan Dan Evans-Republican schtick (in part from his many years as King County Sheriff, a nonpartisan position where he seemed to get along well enough with the county’s Democratic leadership) that appeals to the older suburbanites. Burner obviously plays well to the other younger, techy part of the district, but that’s about it.

For 2010, there are several state legislators in the district who might be better at taking the fight onto Reichert’s turf. State senators Rodney Tom (who started to explore running in the primary this year, but quickly jumped out when overwhelmed by Burner’s national fundraising capacity) and Fred Jarrett both seem to have more appeal to the economically conservative but socially tolerant and pro-environment ticket-splitting types who used to dominate this district. In fact, they both started out in the State House as moderate Republicans, and have been pretty solidly progressive since switching parties once the magnitude of how insane Republican leadership has become in the Bush years became apparent to them. I think many residents of this district would identify with that evolution and would tend to view that as sensible rather than opportunism or flip-flopping. State representative Chris Hurst, on the other hand, is a veteran and a resident of the district’s rural southern end; he would play stronger in Reichert’s strongest turf and counteract Reichert’s own tough-guy image.

Which isn’t to say that Burner should disappear; far from it. If she’s really serious about elective office, she needs to start a little down the totem pole and build the legislative resume and local connections there… and there are still a few Republicans representing the Eastside in the state legislature who need to be eradicated. Unfortunately, her old house was located in the 45th LD, which currently elects all Democrats. However, I assume she’s in the market for a new house, and she might move a mile down the road to the 5th LD, which is further out in the sticks and still elects all Republicans, but rapidly filling in with suburban development. Unfortunately, she’d need to wait another 4 years to take on state senator Cheryl Pflug, but in two years she can take on representative Glenn Anderson, who just squeaked by (51-49) against some guy I’ve never heard of (David Spring). Or alternately, she’s in King County Council District 3, which is represented by moderate Republican Kathy Lambert, up for re-election in 2009. Either way, with her name rec and fundraising abilities, it would be an easier way to get her foot in the electoral door, and I think many voters for whom the ‘experience’ meme worked against her would actually be happy to see her reaffirm her commitment to public service, if at a lower pay grade.

(Unfortunately, there’s a possibility that by the time she cut her teeth some more, WA-08 would already be filled by another Democrat. One other possibility is that Washington may gain a 10th House seat after the 2010 census, in which case a new seat would probably include part of WA-08, which is one of the state’s fastest growing areas, so she might keep that in mind.)

The 2008 Election in Michigan was by far the best that we’ve had in years, maybe decades. We picked up two congressional seats, both of which were gerrymandered to favor Republicans.  Better yet, we won one of them by nearly 10 points.  Barack Obama won by a landslide here (16%) Compared to John Kerry, who only won by three points.  On the Statewide level, we passed two progressive ballot initiatives, threw out the conservative Chief Justice of the State Supreme Court, and made huge gains in the State House of Representatives.

Presidential

Barack Obama won the state of Michigan by a margin of 57%-41%, better than any Democrat has done in decades.  Also for the first time in years, the Democrat won a majority of the counties in the state.  

Congress

Democrat Gary Peters Defeated Incumbent Republican Joe Knollenberg by a margin of 52%-43% in the 9th District, located in Central Oakland County including the cities of Pontiac, Auburn Hills, Rochester, Troy, and West Bloomfield.  This is the first time in decades that a significant portion of Oakland County has been represented by a Democrat.  Peters is a former State Senator, the 2006 candidate for Attorney General, and the current lottery commissioner.  

In the 7th District, located in south central Michigan, State Senate minority leader Mark Schauer defeated CFG wingnut Tim Walberg by a margin of 46%-49%.  The district includes Calhoun county, home to Battle Creek, as well as Jackson County, home to the city of Jackson, which is imfamous for being the birthplace of the Republican Party.  Schauer is the popular state Senator who represents the largest counties, Calhoun and Jackson.  He was endorsed by the former moderate Congressman, Joe Schwartz, whom Walberg defeated in the 2006 Republican Primary.

Ballot Initiatives

Michigan voters passed a Medical Marijuana initiative by a very wide margin, 63%-37%.  But the initiative that drew the most money, and that was the prime target of the conservatives, was Prop. 2, which would use state money to fund stem-cell research.  Voters passed Prop. 2 by 53%-47%.

State House of Representatives

In August, I predicted that Democrats would pick up anywhere from 3-7 seats in the State House. Democrats picked up a total of 9 seats!  That is three more than we won in 2006. It is also the second cycle in a row that we did not lose a single seat, a 15 seat streak.  We now have a 67-43 advantage, only 6 seats away from a 2/3 majority.  It also means that we are almost certain to hold the State House in 2012, just in time for redistricting.  Here are the Democrats who picked up Republican held seats:

District 62-Calhoun County, Battle Creek, Albion.

Kate Segal (D)-62% Gregory Moore (R)-32%

District 101- Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, and Mason Counties.

Dan Scripps (D)-60% Ray Franz (R)40%

District 1- Wayne County, Northeast Detroit, Harper Woods, Grosse Pointe

Tim Bledsoe (D)-57% Mary Treder Lang (R)-43%

District 108- Delta, Menominee, and Dickinson Counties

Judy Nerat (D)-56% Mike Falcon (R)-44%

District 70- Montcalm County, part of Ionia County

Mike Huckleberry-(D) 54% Tom Ginster-(R) 46%

District 21- Wayne County, Canton

Dian Slavens (D)-52% Todd LaJoy-(R) 45%

District 39- Oakland County, West Bloomfield Township

Lisa Brown (D)-52% Amy Peterman-(R) 46%

District 32- Northeast Macomb County, Central St. Clair County

Jennifer Haase-(D) 50% John Accavitti-(R) 47%

District 24- Macomb County, St. Clair Shores

Sarah Roberts (D)-49% Bryan Brandenburg-47%

And the narrow losers:

District 61- Western Kalamazoo County, Portage

Julie Rogers (D)-49% Larry DeShazor (R)-51%

District 43- Oakland County, Waterford Township

Scott Hudson (D)-47% Gail Haines (R)-49%

District 78- Southern Berrien County, Western Cass County

Judy Truesdell (D)-52% Sharon Tyler (R)-52%

District 51- Southern Genesee County

Michael Thorp (D)-47% Paul Scott (R)-53%

Democrats held all competitve seats.  Here are the closest contests for Democrat held seats:

District 91- Muskegon County except Muskegon, Northeast Ottawa County

Mary Valentine (D)-54% Holly Hughes (R)-46%

District 106- Alcona, Alpena, Crawford, Montmorency, Oscoda, and Presque Isle Counties.

Andy Neumann (D)-53% Peter Pettalia (R)-44%

These two were actually the only remotely competitive Democrat races.  

Republicans targeted also targeted the following Democrats who took over Republican seats in 2006: Marc Courriveau won 59-41, Robert Dean won 58-40, Terry Brown won 65-35, Mike Simpson won 63-37, and Martin Griffin won 63-37.  Vicki Barnett also won a competitve open seat 60-40.

2010

Thad McCotter (R-11th District), the Congressman who reprents Suburban portions of Wayne and Oakland Counties, only won re-election 45-51.  State Senator Glenn Anderson represents almost all of the portion of the 11th District that lies in Wayne County. Anderson may decide to run against Mad Thad in 2010.  State Rep-elect Dian Slavens, who pulled an upset in her race this year, may also run.  Marc Courriveau also scored an upset in a strongly Republican district in 2006.  Courriveau would be the best candidate, in my opinion.  He’s young, from a Republican area, and has run for congress three times in the area.

The State Senate will also be up for re-election in 2010.  We have to take control of this body if we want to control the redistricting process, as we could well lose the governors office.  

Races to watch are The 7th District in suburban Wayne County, which will be open, The 34th which includes heavily Democratic Muskegon County and will also be open. The 20th will also be open in 2010. It is currently the most Democratic district held by a Republican in the entire state.  All three district were won by Barack Obama, and will be open in 2010.  We only need three districts to take control, since we currently hold 17 seats to the republicans 21.  These three districts will probably be the top targets of the State Democratic Party.

Just a quick post to let you know that the Oregon House Ds made the choices everyone thought they would by selecting Dave Hunt of Oregon City as the next Speaker and my former boss Rep. Mary Nolan as the new majority leader.  This means that Rep. Nolan’s job as the house chair of the Joint Ways and Means Commitee will be open, as will the Senate’s chair, previously held by Congressman-Elect Kurt Schrader.

Others elected to leadership include:

Speaker Pro-Tem: Arnie Roblan (D-Coos Bay)

Majority Whip: Peter Buckley (D-Ashland)

Deputy Majority Whip: Tina Kotek (D-Portland)

Assistant Majority Whip: Tobias Read (D-Beaverton)

Assistant Majority leader (policy): Sara Gelser (D-Corvallis/Philomath)

Assistant Majority Leader (political): Phil Barnhart (D-Central Lane and Linn counties)

Committee chairs and membership will be announced later this month…

With the Georgia Senate race headed toward a run-off election and the Alaska Senate race amid a protracted vote count, both Jim Martin and Mark Begich need your continued support!

Please, please, please make a contribution to them via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page this weekend!

Democrat	Current	Goal	Difference
Jim Martin	$3,385	$4,000	$615
Mark Begich	$5,553	$6,000	$447

Please, please, please contribute this weekend!

Some new names cropping up in the bid to replace Sen. Obama:

As of Wednesday, the short list of potential Obama replacements included: Reps. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-Ill.) and Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.), state Comptroller Dan Hynes (D), state Veterans Affairs Director Tammy Duckworth (D), retiring state Senate President Emil Jones (D), state Sen. Kwame Raoul (D), and marketing consultant Dan Seals (D), who lost his second consecutive race last night to Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.).

I don’t know if Seals has a real shot at this, and  his selection would probably cheese off some long-time pols who might perceive that he didn’t “wait his turn.” But regardless, he’d be an excellent, excellent choice. I think he would represent Illinois well and would be a strong candidate when the seat is up again in 2010.

I’ve taken the preliminary House election results rounded up at Wikipedia and put them into a more user-friendly spreadsheet. (I also added numbers for CA & WA.) A link to the full sheet is here. Enjoy!

UPDATE (James): One thing we’ll have to update in this chart are the SC-01 numbers. Linda Ketner actually did amazingly well, scoring 47.88% of the vote against crumb-bum GOP Rep. Henry Brown. It seems like there was a tabulation error in the previous results.