Author: Menhen

This is my first attempt at redistricting Illinois.  I drew this map assuming that Governor Pat Quinn wins re-election and Democrats control the redistricting trifecta.  SSPers know, of course, that Pat Quinn trails in the high single-digits in the most recent polls, so full Democratic control remains in doubt.  

Illinois is predicted to lose a congressional seat in 2012, going from 19 to 18 seats.  This necessitated the drawing together of two incumbents, Peter Roskam and Mike Quigley.  Illinois also currently has 4 VRA districts (3 African-American, 1 Hispanic) all based in the City of Chicago.  I preserved all 4 districts, and I felt that the sharp Hispanic growth required the creation of another majority Hispanic district.  Therefore, my map has 5 Minority-Majority districts.  

Chicago Area

District 1 (Golden Yellow) Pop. 716,433; 56% Black, 36% White, 6% Hispanic – Bobby Rush (D)

Located in the Heart of Chicago’s South Side, the 1st District remains mostly the same, except that it grows a bit in area and becomes dramatically less Black (formerly 65%, now 56%), but this is all a result of population loss in that area.  Still heavily Black and strongly Democratic. Obama ~ 80% – 85%

District 2 (Dark Blue) Pop. 719,391; 55% Black, 32% White, 12% Hispanic – Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D)

The South Side’s other Majority Black district, the 2nd also stays mostly the same, but expands in area and becomes a bit less Black.  It takes in some of the Cook County portion of Judy Biggert’s current district, but still remains the most Democratic district in Illinois.  Obama ~ 85% – 90%

District 3 (Red) Pop. 712,342; 63% Hispanic, 29% White, 5% Black – OPEN (D)

Unlike most of the other ethnic groups in the city, Chicago’s Hispanic population is growing rapidly.  Currently there is only one Majority Hispanic district in Illinois, represented by Luis Gutierrez. The rapid growth, as well as the large distance between the two main Latino enclaves, led me to create two Hispanic majority districts.  The 3rd, located on the South and West sides of the City and including Cicero, Berwyn, and Burbank, is predominantly Mexican.  Gutierrez, this area’s current Congressman, is Puerto Rican and lives on the North Side.  The split will allow the Mexican Community to have it’s own voice in Congress.

Obama ~ 70% – 75%

District 4 (Turquoise Blue) Pop. 716,176; 57% Hispanic, 30% White, 5% Black – Luis Gutierrez (D)

This is Chicago’s second majority Hispanic District.  It is primarily Puerto Rican and is located just North and West of the Loop.  It is reasonably compact (much better than the previous 4th, at least) and includes Rep. Gutierrez’s home.  He would likely be very happy with this district.  It remains strongly Democratic. Obama ~ 70% – 75%

District 5 (Purple) Pop. 718,061; 74% White, 14% Hispanic, 8% Asian – Mike Quigley (D) + Peter Roskam (R)

The new 5th District draws together two relatively new Congressman, Democrat Mike Quigley of Chicago and Republican Peter Roskam of DuPage County.  Roskam’s District was very evenly divided when he won his first term in 2006, but in 2008 it gave President Obama 56% of the vote.  The addition of strongly Democrat-leaning parts of Northern Chicago makes the 5th a likely to safe Democrat district, and Quigley should beat Roskam fairly easily.  Obama ~ 60% – 65%

District 6 (Gray) Pop. 718,677; 54% Black, 35% White, 5% Hispanic – Danny Davis (D)

Danny Davis’s District bled population over the last decade, and therefore had to increase dramatically in size.  It is the last of Chicago’s 3 majority Black districts, and it stretches from Downtown/The Loop out to the Cook County – DuPage County border, and South to include more conservative suburbs formerly represented by Dan Lipinski.  At 54% Black, it is still strongly Democratic.  Obama ~ 80% – 85%

District 7 (Pink) Pop. 720,868; 64% White, 13% Asian, 13% Hispanic – Jan Schakowsky (D)

This new district takes up much of North Chicago along the lakeshore, including Lakeview, the Midwest’s largest gay district.  Much of this area was formerly in Mike Quigley’s district, but will probably be happier with a strong Liberal like Schakowsky.  It also includes her home in Evanston, some North-Western suburbs like Des Plaines and Park Ridge, and other Democrat leaning areas north of the city.  It should be safely Democratic.  Obama ~ 70% – 75%

Collar Counties/Chicago Exurbs

District 8 (Violet/Purplish Blue) Pop. 718,040; 74% White, 14% Hispanic, 7% Asian – Melissa Bean (D)

Covers a similar territory to Bean’s old district, but now takes in more of Lake and Cook Counties and much less of McHenry County.  Moves closer to Chicago, so I would guess that it becomes somewhat more Democratic.  Likely still a narrowly Dem-leaning swing district.  Obama ~ 55% – 60%

District 9  (Bright Green) Pop. 715,049; 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 10% Asian – Dan Seals (D) or Bob Dold (R)

Mark Kirk’s elusive North Shore district moves a little more into Cook County, and becomes 15% less White in the process (going from 81% to 66%).  It now includes Dan Seals’ home in Willmette, as well as Highland Park, Lake Forest, and Waukegan in Lake County.  If Dan Seals doesn’t win this district in 2010, another Democrat will in 2012.  Obama ~ 65% – 70%

District 10  (Tan) Pop. 712,389; 73% White, 11% Hispanic, 9% Asian – Judy Biggert (R) + Dan Lipinski (D)

This district strongly resembles Judy Biggert’s old 13th, but it was drawn with ConservaDem Dan Lipinski in mind.  It includes a portion of his old urban-suburban district, as well as parts of Will and DuPage counties, centered mainly around Naperville.  If faced with a Lipinski matchup in 2012, Biggert would probably opt to retire, but if not, or if Republicans can manage to find a moderate State legislator to run, Republicans could hold this district.  But Lipinski, a social-conservative who is already well known in the area, would have a significant chance of winning here.  Obama ~ 50% – 55%

District 11 (Olive Green) Pop. 718,631; 66% White, 24% Hispanic, 6% Black – Bill Foster (D) OR Randy Hultgren (R)

One of the few Districts in Illinois that has been experiencing steady growth over the past decade, Bill Foster’s district had to shed it’s Western rural counties, but is still centered around Kane, Kendall, and Dekalb Counties.  It includes the fast growing, Democrat-leaning, minority-majority city of Aurora, as well as Geneva, Elgin, and DeKalb. Becomes slightly more Democratic, which should help Foster out, though the district is already trending blue.  Obama ~ 55% – 60%

Rural Illinois

District 12 (Dark Green) Pop. 712,202; 80% White, 11% Hispanic, 6% Black – Don Manzullo (R)

Manzullo’s district stays mostly the same (centered around Rockford), but loses rural Carrol, Ogle, and Whiteside Counties in exchange for almost all of McHenry.  Maybe moves slightly left, but not drastically, and not enough to dislodge Manzullo.  Obama ~ 50% – 55%

District 13 (Periwinkle Blue)  Pop. 719,998; 76% White, 12% Hispanic, 9% Black – Debbie Halvorson (D) OR Adam Kizinger (R)

The 14th takes in all of Kankakee County, most of Will County, and most of LaSalle County.  It loses the strange shaped arm that stretched South into McLean County and becomes much more compact.  Minority growth in the Joliet area makes this district a bit more Democratic, and should be a Democratic hold in a neutral year.  Obama ~ 55% – 60%

District 14 (Sky Blue) Pop. 717,188; 90% White, 4% Hispanic, 3% Black – Aaron Schock (R)

I had to draw Aaron Schock’s home in Peoria out of his district and into Phil Hare’s but in exchange I gave him a district that is a bit more Republican.  It streches South from the Iowa border to strongly Republican Tazewell County, then to the Springfield area, and finally West to include all of McLean County.  Should be safely Republican.  Obama ~ 45%

District 15 (Orange) Pop. 717,498; 88% White, 6% Black, 3% Hispanic – Timothy Johnson (R)

Stays almost exactly the same, covers the same area along the Indiana border and leans strongly Republican.  Obama ~ 45% – 50%

District 16 (Dark Purple)  Pop. 716,746; 83% White, 9% Black, 4% Hispanic – Phil Hare (D)  

This district is now much more compact than it used to be. It includes the Illinois portion of the Quad Cities, Peoria, and a small portion of Springfield, as well as a large swath of rural farming counties along the Iowa border.  Should be safe for Hare, though the area is trending Republican.  Obama ~ 55% – 60%

District 17 (Green) Pop. 717,602; 81% White, 15% Black, 2% Hispanic – Jerry Costello (D)

I tried to shore up Costello’s district as much as possible, but it’s still more or less the same.  It loses some of it’s far Southern counties along the Kentucky border that have been trending Republican, and gains Macoupin and Montgomery Counties, both of which were won by Obama. Still, the needle doesn’t move too much.  Obama ~ 55%

District 18 (Yellow) Pop. 711,505 89% White, 7% Black, 2% Hispanic – John Shimkus (R)

Still the most Republican district in Illinois, Shimkus’s doesn’t change much.  It’s hard to believe this district was once represented by Dick Durbin.  Obama ~ 40% – 45%

MSNBC’s First Read Reported this morning that Michigan Democratic Congressman Bart Stupak is considering not running for re-election in 2010.

With just a few days to go before the end of this recess, House Democrats are cautiously optimistic that they could get through it without a single retirement announcement. That said, there is still a concern that some important incumbents in districts that they are uniquely suited could call it quits. At the top of the concern list this week: Michigan Democrat Bart Stupak. The Democrat best known this year as the Democrat who delivered the winning margin of votes for the president’s health-care reform bill is said to be simply exhausted. The criticism he received — first from the left, and then from the right — has worn him and his family out. And if he had to make the decision now, he’d probably NOT run. As of this writing, a bunch of senior Democrats (many of the same ones who twisted his arm on the health care vote) are trying to talk him into running. The filing deadline in Michigan is still a month away, but veterans of that state’s politics are skeptical anyone other than Stupak can hold that district in this political climate.

First, let me start by saying I called Stupak’s office today, but got no answer; I plan to keep calling until I can speak to a real person.  I intend to tell Stupak (well, his staffers) that as a constituent, I would hope that he would not give into the national pressures that are being put on him, and to stand strong and run for re-election.  I plan to let him know that I am a liberal, who supports Single Payer, and that I am not angry with him over the recent healthcare scuffle.  I would vote for Bart Stupak (if I could) one hundred more times, and on a personal, not political level, I would hate to see him retire.

If these rumors are true (let’s hope they aren’t), is First Read correct in saying that Stupak is the only Democrat who can hold the 1st District? No. As astute as Mark Murray is, he does not know the Upper Peninsula of Michigan like I do. It’s true that Bart Stupak is/was extremely popular, but it’s not an Ike Skelton-like situation, where the politician’s personal popularity is the only thing that keeps him or her from being defeated.  In fact, the first district has been consistently more Democratic than the state as a whole in almost every election other than in Presidential elections.  The district easily supported Senators Levin and Stabenow, Governor Granholm, and various other Statewide elected officials.  It also voted for Obama in 2008, albeit by a less-than overwhelming margin.  By my count, there are roughly 6 Democrats who represent a significant portion of the 1st District in the State House of Representatives, compared to only 2 Republicans (only one actually lives in the district).  It appears also that the one and only State Senator who lives in the 1st District is a Democrat (although it does overlap two Republican districts). So, in short, as I’ve said before, the 1st District is not lost without Stupak running, but it will be a tough fight.  

I’ll now go into some potential candidates on both sides

Mike Prusi (D-Ishpeming) – Mike Prusi is my State Senator.  I believe that he could easily win the 1st District seat if he ran.  He is perhaps the most popular politician in the Upper Peninsula, having been re-elected with over 70% of the vote in 2006.  Whether or not he would run is another story. Certainly there would be pressure from national leaders, but a relative of his who I’m friendly with has told me that he wishes to retire from politics in 2010 as he is termed out of the legislature (this was pre-Stupak retirement rumors; retiring would make sense for Prusi otherwise, he really can’t move up any farther).  Politically, despite his popularity with Conservative Democrats and many Republicans, Prusi would be a step up from Stupak. He voted against banning partial birth abortion in all cases (can you imagine Stupak doing that?) and in favor of criminalizing discrimination based on sexual orientation.  And the Unions LOVE Prusi.  He is a former Iron miner and would get tremendous Union Support if he ran.  He is also from Marquette County, the districts largest County, and received 78% of the vote here in 2006.  A Marquette County candidate could really get the vote out here in what is also the district’s most Democratic County.  If Stupak does retire, I think in the end Prusi would win. At 60, however, the hard part would be convincing him to run.

Steve Lindberg (D-Marquette) – Steve Lindberg (AKA Stevie L) is my State Rep. as well as my favorite local politician.  He represents a fairly large district in the central Upper Peninsula that includes the extremely important Marquette County. Again, it would be beneficial to have a candidate from Marquette County, and Lindberg is very popular here. On the other hand, Lindberg will be 66 on election day, and therefore may not be inclined to start a congressional career so late in life. Lindberg would be a tremendous step up over Stupak politically. He hails from the very liberal City of Marquette and is pro-choice, pro-stem cell research, pro-Medical Marijuana, and very pro-environment.  Again, like Prusi, Lindberg would get tremendous Union support as well.  One the other hand, being so liberal may hurt him in the rest of the district, which is much more Conservative than Marquette County.  Lindberg is also not the best Public Speaker, which could hurt him.  I like Lindberg, but he would not be our best candidate for holding the 1st District.

Mike Lahti (D-Hancock) – Mike Lahti is another State Representative from the Upper Peninsula.  Unlike the previous two, Lahti is from the more conservative Western U.P. (Houghton County, to be specific).  Like his district, Lahti is very conservative.  As a result of his conservatism, however, Lahti is very popular in the 110th District.  This area is normally a swing area, having gone very narrowly for Obama but comfortably for Bush twice.  If Lahti ran, he would certainly run the table in his district, and probably perform well in Marquette County; His conservativism may also resonate well in the Lower Peninsula, which is politically similar to his district. As a liberal and a progressive, however, I really don’t want to see someone who is more conservative than Stupak replace him. I would support Lahti in the general election, but only reluctantly.  One indication that Lahti may not run, however, is that he has already filed to replace Mike Prusi in the 38th Senate District (Prusi is term limited, remember). Lahti is not opposed by any Democrat as of yet, and would likely move easily up to the Senate, whereas a Congressional Campaign would be more of an up-hill battle.  If he did run, however, I suspect Lahti could potentially hold Stupak’s seat for the Democrats (or in his case, ConservaDems).

Judy Nerat (D-Wallace) – Judy Nerat is Bart Stupak’s State Represenative.  She is also a close Stupak ally, and her 2008 win had a lot to do with Congressman Stupak’s strong support of her campaign.  The 108th District is very heavily Catholic, and like Stupak, Nerat’s political views have a lot to do with her Catholicism; She is quite Conservative, and again, like Stupak, she is Pro-Life.  Stupak may like to see her move up to Congress, but she’s only in her first term in the State House, and has little other political experience. She was also recently diagnosed with multiple myeloma, a type of cancer.  For these reasons I think a Nerat run for Congress is not very likely in the case of an open seat.  

There are many other Democrats who may decide to run here, should the above decline.  Former Senator Don Koivisto (D-Gogebic) who served from 1990-2002 and who is now the Director of the Michigan Department of Agriculture. Koivisto might be a candidate worth looking at, and he is only 60.  Other candidates include former State Rep. and current State House Clerk Rich Brown (D-Bessemer), State Rep. Gary McDowell (D-Rudyard), though McDowell is already running for the State Senate in the 37th District, Former Rep. Matthew Gillard (D-Alpena), Current Rep. Andy Neumann (D-Alpena), former Rep. Steven Adamini (D-Marquette), though Adamini has had some Drunk-driving arrests that wouldn’t play well, and Marquette County Commission Chair Gerald Corkin (D-Negaunee).

You may notice that I did not mention already announced candidate Connie Saltonstall.  This was intentional.  Saltonstall, from my perspective, is far to liberal for the 1st District.  Not only that, but she has little political experience.  She also hails from the Lower Peninsula, which makes it nearly impossible for her to win (a candiate must have a UP base to win here).  I’ll do what I can to ensure that Saltonstall is not the nominee, should Stupak retire.

and now for the Republicans:

Tom Casperson (R-Gladstone) – Casperson, who you may remember ran against Stupak in 2008 and epicly failed, is now running for Mike Prusi’s State Senate seat.  He is a distinct underdog against Mike Lahti, and likely knows this.  If Stupak does retire, Casperson may decide to try for Congress again instead.  In an open seat he could make a race of it, especially against a lackluster Democrat.

Other potential Republican candidates include State Rep. Kevin Elsenheimer, and….well that’s about it for elected officials.  There are a few Republicans who’ve already filed, but they fall into the category of “Some Guy.”

So yes, if Stupak does retire, it will be a close race. Probably a tossup. But the seat is not “gone” without Stupak; far from it.  There is a deep bench of Democrats who have the potential to retain this seat, as well as a very very shallow bench of Republicans.  In any other year, I’d say this race was Leans Democrat, but unfortunately 2010 is shaping up to be a bad year for Dems, so I’m calling it a tossup.

On the heels of my last Michigan related diary, which received some pretty suprising attention from the DLCC, I’ve decided to overview the potentially competitive State House Races going forward into 2010.  By my count, about a third (34 out of 110) of the State House seats will be open in 2010, a far smaller percentage than in the State Senate, where at least 30 of 38 seats will be open.  Although Democrats stand to gain several seats in the Senate, the House is not such a rosy picture.  The competitive nature of the open seats means that there will be a lot of turnovers in the next election, but Democrats will at best only achieve a net gain of 1-2 seats, While the most likely scenario is a no net change to Republicans gaining 1-2.  In a bad year Democrats could lose 5-6 seats, but I don’t envision the Republicans gaining the 13 seats needed to take back control of the body.  Democrats control the House by a 67-43 margin, after two successive cycles of huge gains (+6 in 2006 and +9 in 2008).  You can view my Senate overview here http://www.swingstateproject.c…

Because most of the districts will be uncompetitive, I’m only listing ones that I consider to be “Lean” or “Tossup” districts.  I will include, as in my Senate Diary, a list of announced and potential candidates and 2008 Presidential results.

District 30– Tory Rocca (R) OPEN Northern Sterling Heights (Macomb County)

This district has been represented by the Rocca family consistently for the past 26 years.  First the Father, Sal, from 1983 to 1994.  Then the mother, Sue, from 1994 to 2000, then Sal again from 2000 to 2004, and finally, the son, Tory from 2004 to present.  This district has trended democratic since the beginning of the Rocca reign, and Tory is term limited.  According to Sal’s biography, he has another son, Michael, but it is unclear whether he lives in the 30th District or not.  The Democratic bench in this district is strong.  Macomb County Commissioner Ken Lampar (D), who was elected in 2008, has already announced his candidacy and is considered a strong contender.  23 year old Commissioner Dave Flynn (D) is also a potential candidate.  The only Republican commissioner who represents a portion of this district is Matriarch Sue Rocca, who is barred by term limits of running for her old seat.  Unless a Rocca steps up, I like Democrats chances here.  Still this is a historically Republican district.

Presidential Results- 50.9 – 46.4 Obama

Announced Candidates- Ken Lampar (D) Current Macomb County Commissioner

Potential Candidates- Dave Flynn (D) Current Macomb County Commissioner

Rating- Tossup

District 57– Dudley Spade (D) OPEN Most of Lenawee County

Rep. Dudley Spade is term limited in 2010, and his district will be home to one of the biggest and most heavily contested races in the state.  The county is competitive but normally leans slightly Republican nationally, while Democrats usually do well here locally.  Prior to Dudley Spade, this seat was represented by his brother, Doug Spade from 1998-2004.  If another Spade steps up, our chances for holding this seat improve. (Maybe actor David Spade should move here.)  Both sides have deep benches here, but only Harvey Schmidt has announced his candidacy yet.  Schmidt, a Democrat, is the mayor of Tecumseh, the 2nd largest city in the district.  Former State Senator and brief 2008 candidate for Congress Jim Berryman (D) is considered a possible candidate, and has the name recognition to win.  There is a long list of Republican County and City Commissioners who could make this district competitives, as well.

Presidential Results- 51.4 – 46.4 Obama

Announced Candidates- Wayne Schmidt (D) Mayor of Tecumseh

Potential Candidates- Larry Richardson (D) Madison Township Supervisor

Karol Bolton (D) Lenawee County Commissioner

Michael Osborne (D) Adrian City Commissioner

Jim Berryman (D) Former State Senator

James Van Doren (R) Lenawee County Commissioner; Chairman

John Tuckerman (R) Lenawee County Commissioner

David Simpson (R) Lenawee County Commissioner

Rob Hall (R) Lenawee County Commissioner

Rating- Tossup

District 70– Mike Huckleberry (D) Montcalm County, Part of Ionia County

The 70th District was one of the closest districts between Obama and McCain, with Pres. Obama only narrowly prevailing by 313 votes.  Yet the same year, Democrat Mike Huckleberry, an entrepreneur and former Congressional candidate, Upset the favorite, Republican Judge Tom Ginster, by a wide 54-46 margin.  Republicans will contend that Huckleberry’s election was a fluke in such a Republican district, and will surely run a strong candidate against him.  Still, Incumbents almost never lose in the Michigan legislature.  In fact, of the Democrats 15 pickups in the last 2 cylces, only one was due to the loss of an incumbent.  This is not because Michigan has any particularly strong affinity for its incumbents, it’s just that with so many open seats, the state parties rarely spend money against incumbents.  Only businessman Ed Sternisha has yet announced his candidacy, and Republicans will likely need someone stronger than him to defeat Huckleberry.

Presidential Results- 49.5 – 49.4 Obama

Announced Candidates- Ed Sternisha (R)

Potential Candidates- Ron Retzloff (R) Montcalm County Commissioner

Pat Carr (R) Montcalm County Commissioner

Amanda Powell (R) Ionia County Commissioner

Rating- Leans Democrat

District 71– Rick Jones (R) OPEN Most of Eaton County

Between 2004 and 2008, Eaton County went from being a slightly Republican leaning swing county, to a slightly Democrat leaning swing county.  Eaton voted for Obama, and Mark Schauer, and at the same time gave Democrats control of its County Commission.  Democrats control 9 commission seats and Republicans control 6.  Almost any of these commissioners would make solid candidates for State House.  Republicans Deb Shaughnessy, the mayor of Charlotte, and Cheryl Krapf-Haddock, Executive Director of the Child Abuse Prevention Council have both announced their candidacies, with more Republicans likely to enter.  Democrat Robert Robinson has announced his candidacy as well.  It looks like both sides will have competitive primaries.  At this point, I can’t pick a favorite, and it could stay that way until election day.

Presidential Results- 53.5 – 44.8 Obama

Announced Candidates- Deb Shaughnessy (R) Charlotte Mayor

Cheryl Krapf-Haddock (R)

Robert Robinson (D)

Potential Candidates- Joe Brehler (D) Eaton County Commissioner

Glenn Freeman (D) Eaton County Commissioner

Art Luna (D) Eaton County Commissioner

Leo Farhat (R) Eaton County Commissioner

John Forell (R) Eaton County Commissioner

Rating- Tossup

District 79– John Proos (R) OPEN Northern half of Berrien County

Like much of South-Western Michigan, Berrien County swung strongly Democratic in 2008.  In fact, Barack Obama was the first Democrat to win the County since 1964! Much of this is attributed to high African-American turnout in Benton Harbor, but it was perhaps equally because of moderate Republicans abandoning the Republican Party.  The question in 2010 is whether those moderates will return to the GOP fold or not.  If they do, Republicans will keep this seat in a walk, but if the moderates are still dissatisfied, this seat could be competitive.  Lower Black turnout makes this one tougher, but not impossible, for Democrats.  No candidates have announced yet, and Republicans have a deeper bench here than Democrats, so I’m going to call them the favorites.

Presidential Results- 53.0 – 45.8 Obama

Announced Candidates-

Potential Candidates- Jim Hahn (D) Chairman of Berrien County Democrats

John Hinkleman (R) Berrien County Commissioner

Al Pscholka (R) Aide to Congressman Fred Upton

Rating: Leans Republican

District 83– John Espinosa (D) OPEN Sanilac County, Port Huron (St. Clair County)

Democrat John Espinosa is vacating his seat to run for State Senate (He’s term limited anyway).  Republicans drew this seat in their favor, but Moderate Dem Espinosa has been able to consistently win re-election here easily.  Now that he’s vacating it, it becomes a good opportunity for Republicans.  Democrat Port Huron City Councilman Alan Lewandowski is apparently interested, but I think Democrats would have more luck with a candidate from Sanilac County, where Espinosa is from.  Unfortunately, Republicans control every single seat on the Sanilac County Commission.  An city or township official from Sanilac County or an official from Port Huron could make this seat competitive, but right now I feel like this is the Republicans’ most likely pickup next year.

Presidential Results- 51.8 – 46.1 Obama

Announced Candidates-

Potential Candidates- Alan Lewandowski (D) Port Huron City Councilman

Jamie Daws (R) Sanilac County Commissioner

Gary Russell (R) Sanilac County Commissioner

Rating- Leans Republican

District 85– Richard Ball (R) OPEN Shiawassee County, Part of Clinton County

This is another district that Republicans gerrymandered for themselves by pairing swingish Shiawassee County with portions of the normally Republican Clinton County.  Yet this area, just north of Lansing, experienced one of the biggest swings in the 2008 elections.  Barack Obama not only won the district, but suprisingly won Clinton County as a whole. Both sides have relatively good benches here, but the Democratic nominee with have to get past the historically Republican nature of Clinton County to win here.  Three Republicans have announced so far, but only Owosso Mayor Pro-Tem Jim Stechschulte seems like a viable candidate.  Republican Owosso Mayor Mike Bruff would be an even better candidate.  No Democrat has yet announced but there are several Shiawassee County Commissioners who could win this district.

Presidential Results- 53.9 – 44.2 Obama

Announced Candidates- Jim Stechschulte (R) Owosso Mayor Pro-Tem

David Lazar (R)

Harold Kuisel (R)

Potential Candidates- Judy Ford (D) 2008 Candidate

Dan Stewart (D) Shiawassee County Commissioner

Jaime Pavlica (D) Shiawassee County Commissioner

Mike Bruff (R) Owosso Mayor

Rating- Tossup

District 91– Mary Valentine (D) OPEN Suburban Muskegon County, Part of Ottawa County

Although she is not term-limited, talented Democrat Mary Valentine is vacating her house seat to run for the State Senate.  This seat was held for years by Republicans until Valentine came along in 2006 and pummeled incumbent Republican David Farhat 54-46.  She was easily re-elected in 2008 over highly touted Republican recruit Holly Hughes, while Barack Obama won the district very comfortably.  Democrats hold most of the County Commissioners seats in this district, and State Treasurer Tony Moulatsiotis lives in Norton Shores and would make a strong candidate.  Still, few Democrats can match Valentine’s charisma and skillful campaigning.  Republican Ken Punter is running.  Juggernaut fundraiser and 2006 candidate may also run.  

Presidential Results- 56.2 – 42.6 Obama

Announced Candidates- Ken Punter (R)

Potential Candidates- Tony Moulatsiotis (D) Muskegon County Treasurer

Kenneth Mahoney (D) Muskegon County Commissioner; Chairman

James Derezinski (D) Muskegon County Commissioner

Holly Hughes (R) 2008 Candidate

Rating- Tossup

97th District– Tim Moore (R) OPEN Clare, Gladwin, Arenac, northern Bay Counties

In 2004, Republican Tim Moore defeated one-term Democratic State Rep. Jennifer Elkins by a narrow margin.  Since then he’s faced only token opposition, despite the swingishness of his district and its historic Democratic nature (it’s also the birth place of Sen. Debbie Stabenow).  President Obama won every County in this district, and the Republican bench here isn’t great.  For the Democrats, Fmr. Rep. Elkins want to try to regain her seat.  Freeman Township supervisor Mark Lightfoot (D) has already announced his candidacy, but several other local officeholders may join him.  Two Republicans have announced their candidacy, Kim Emmons and Joel Johnson.  Neither has held political office or seems viable against a strong Dem nominee.  radio personality Bobby Randall has been talked about for the Republican primary.

Presidential Results- 51.4 – 46.5 Obama

Announced Candidates- Mark Lightfoot (D) Freeman Township supervisor

Kim Emmons (R) Activist

Joel Johnson (R)

Potential Candidates- Jennifer Elkins (D) Former State Representative

Mike Shea (D) Gladwin County Sherrif

Josh Reid (D) Gladwin County Commissioner

Bobby Randall (R) Radio Personality

Rating- Tossup

District 99– Bill Caul (R) OPEN Isabella County, part of Midland County

The 99th is another district customized by Republicans.  And once again, the district has moved significantly to the left.  The main anchor of the district is Isabella County, a former swing district that gave president Obama huge margin in 2008.  The rest of the district is rural Republican townships in Midland County.  High Native American populations and the fact that Mount Pleasant is home to Central Michigan University makes this district one of the best pickup opportunities for Democrats.  Democrats also recruited the woman who is probably their strongest candidate, well known attorney and Chair of the Isabella County Democrats Toni Sessoms.  Sessoms is also independently wealthy and if elected she would become the first openly lesbian State Representative.  Former Republican County Commissioner and unsuccessful 2008 candidate for an at-large commissioner seat Christine Alwood is running.  Alwood is not nearly as strong as Republican Mount Pleasant mayor Jim Holton, but Holton hasn’t shown any inclination towards running yet.  I like Sessoms chances against Alwood, but Holton would be more of an uphill climb.

Presidential Results- 54.1 – 43.9 Obama

Announced Candidates- Toni Sessoms (D) Isabella County Dems Chair

Christine Alwood (R) Former Isabella County Commissioner

Potential Candidates- Jim Holton (R) Mount Pleasant Mayor

Rating- Tossup

District 103– Joel Sheltrown (D) OPEN Iosco, Ogemaw, Roscommon, and Missaukee Counties

Another district that’s all in the family.  Before Joel Sheltrown, this district was represented by his brother, Dale.  And who’s the most likely Democratic candidate in 2010? Van Sheltrown, the third brother and current Ogemaw County Road Commissioner.  The Sheltrown name is popular here, but there’s no guarantee that Van will have the primary to himself.  And this district is Republican in nature (McCain won it).  Republicans have a somewhat deep bench here, but so far only Phil Bendily has announced his candidacy.  Against Bendily, the Democrat should be favored, but against a stronger candidate like Missaukee County Sheriff Jim Bosscher, the result is less certain.

Presidential Results- 49.3 – 48.8 McCain

Announced Candidates- Phil Bendily (R)

Potential Candidates- Van Sheltrown (D) Ogemaw County Road Commission

Howie Hanft (D) Ogemaw County Sheriff

Marc Milburn (R) Roscommon County Commissioner

Jim Bosscher (R) Missauke County Sheriff

Rating- Tossup

District 105– Kevin Elsenheimer (R) OPEN Charlevoix, Otsego, and part of Cheboygan Counties

Kevin Elsenheimer, who retired in 2008 and then un-retired, is now term limited for real.  If the short lived primary from last year is any indication, the Republican primary will be crowded and may include, as it did last year and in 2004, John Ramsey, yes the John Ramsey.  Last year Cheboygan County Commissioner Connie Saltonstall ran a tough campaign against Elsenheimer, and she may run again.  If the crowded Republican primary yields a damaged or unelectable candidate like Ramsey, Saltonstall has a good shot.  But if not, this district will probably go with the Republican.  MSU student and Controversial figure Dennis Lennox, who’s currently being sued for Defamation by Ingham County Commissioner Mark Grebner.  He currently serves as Cheboygan County Drain Commissioner, even though he thinks his job should be eliminated to save money.  A Saltonstall-Lennox race would be competitive, as well, in my opinion.

Presidential Results- 52.1 – 46.1 McCain

Announced Candidates- Dennis Lennox (R) Cheboygan County Drain Commissioner

Ken Glasser (R) Otsego County Commissioner

Potential Candidates- Connie Saltonstall (D) former Cheboygan county Commissioner

Tim Boyko (R) Former County Commissioner (R)

Greg MacMaster (R)

John Ramsey (R) 2008 Candidate (dropped out) and 2004 Candidate

Rating- Leans Republican

District 106– Andy Neumann (D) OPEN Alcona, Alpena, Presque Isle, Crawford, Montmorency, and Oscoda Counties

Andy Neumann, who was state Rep from 1998-2002 and who ran for his seat again last year, is term limited.  The district leans Republican nationally, but it’s anchored by Democratic bastion Alpena and leans Democrat statewide.  Neumann won comfortably in 2008 over Republican Pete Pettalia.  Democrats have several Alpena elected officials who could do well here, although Republicans control the Alpena County Commission.  No Democrats or Republicans have yet announced their candidacies yet, but both have good benches.  

Presidential Results- 49.8 – 48.1 McCain

Announced Candidates-

Potential Candidates- Mark Hall (D) Alpena County Commissioner

Casey Viegelahn (D) 2008 Primary Candidate

Peter Pettalia (R) 2008 Candidate

Mike Nunneley (R) Alpena City Councilman

Rating- Tossup

District 107– Gary McDowell (D) OPEN Chippewa, Mackinac, Emmet, and part of Cheboygan Counties

Former UPS delivery man and conservative Dem Gary McDowell is term limited.  The two westernmost Counties in the Upper Peninsula, Chippewa and Mackinac, are the only two that aren’t comfortably Democratic on the local and statewide level.  President Obama nearly won both, but downstate Emmet County is much more Republican.  The Republican bench is a bit stronger than the Democratic bench.  Former Chippewa County Prosecutor Patrick Shannon would probably be the strongest Democratic candidate.  St. Ignace Mayor Paul Grondin would make a strong Republican candidate as well.  Who’s favored here depends entirely on who each side nominates.  So far only Republican Frank Foster has filed to run here.

Presidential Results- 50.6 – 47.7 McCain

Announced Candidates- Frank Foster (R)

Potential Candidates- Patrick Shannon (D) former Chippewa County Prosecutor

Keith Massaway (D) Sault Indian Tribe leader

Paul Grondin (R) St. Ignace Mayor

Michael Patrick (R) Mackinac County Commissioner

Jim Moore (R) Chippewa County Commissioner

Rating- Tossup

Special thanks to Peter Bratt for compiling This spreadsheet compiling all announced candidates.  Also thanks to whomever created this website.

We all know how important it is that Democrats re-capture the Michigan State Senate next year.  If they take the Senate and hold the Governorship, they will have complete control over the redistricting process. Bill Ballenger, editor of Inside Michigan Politics, says “Democrats look poised to pick up at least 3 seats” next year.  To take control, we only need to win 4 Republican seats.  Democrats have not controlled the State Senate since 1982.  Below I have all 38 Senate seats listed, with the name of its Senator, the party, whether or not it will be OPEN next year, and a brief description of the district.  I also give a brief preliminary paragraph handicapping the race.  

Then I give the 2008 Presidential Result in that District. Remember that the 2008 resutl is sort of a “High Water Mark” here.  Note that I didn’t calculate the Presidential Vote for the 5 Detroit districts because this would require going precinct by precinct which would have taken days.  They are all at least 80% Obama, many are more than 90% Obama.

I then included all of the announced candidates for the races, with links to their websites or sources.  I then list potential candidates for each race, usually State Representatives or other local officeholders.  Finally, I offer a Charlie Cook style rating: Safe, Likely, Leans or Tossup.  The Senator’s name links to their website, where you can find a map of his or her district.

I realize that this is a lot of text, so for those who don’t want to read the entire thing, I added all my ratings seperately at the bottom of the diary.

Updated to include the announced Candidacies of Fmr. Rep. John Stewart (D) in the 7th (h/t Sean Fitzpatrick) and Rep. Mary Valentine (D) in the 34th.

District 1– Hansen Clarke (D) OPEN Easten Detroit; Downtown

Hansen Clarke (AKA “The man who kicked Ann Coulter’s Ass”) is term limited next year.  It’s a shame, because Clark has been one of my favorite Senators, and even one of my favorite politicians.  He recently donated his hair to a nine year old burn victim http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/dp… and is a tireless advocate for under-represented and underpriveledged Americans.  

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Coleman Young II (D), State Rep. (2006- ) 2009 Candidate for Detroit Mayor

Fred Durhal, Jr. (D)  State Rep. (2002-2003, 2008-  )

Betty Cook Scott (D) State Rep. (2004-   )

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 2 Martha G. Scott (D) OPEN North Detroit, Hamtrack, Grosse Cities.  

Martha Scott, who was one of Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick’s 2008 primary challengers, is term limited.

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

LaMar Lemmons (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Bill McConico (D) State Rep. (2000-2006), 2006 Candidate

Virgil Smith (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Bert Johnson (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 3 Irma Clark-Coleman (D) OPEN Central Detroit, Dearborn

This district includes Dearborn, so there is the potential for this district to elect an Arab-American to the Senate.

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Morris Hood, Jr. State Rep. (2002-2008)

Keith Williams (D) Wayne County Commission (2003-  )

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 4 Buzz Thomas (D) OPEN North and Central Detroit

Another very good legislator who is term limited this year, although I’m keeping my fingers crossed that John Conyers will retire so that Thomas can replace him in Congress.

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

George Cushingberry (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Virgil Smith (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Keith Williams (D) Wayne County Commission (2003-  )

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 5 Tupac Hunter (D) West Detroit, Dearborn Heights, Inkster

Hunter will be fine in this majority black district, however term limited State Rep. Gabe Leland may challenge Hunter.  Leland’s father, Burt, represented this district prior to Hunter for decades.  

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 6 Glenn Anderson (D) Livonia, Westland, Redford, Garden City

Senator Anderson won this historically Republican suburban Wayne County district in 2006, defeating Republican Sen. Laura Toy.  He is favored to win re election, but former Rep. John Pastor (R) of Livonia could make it competitive.

Presidential Results: 57.8 – 40.4 Obama

Rating: Likely Democrat

District 7 Bruce Patterson (R) OPEN Canton, Northville, Plymouth, Trenton

Republican Pruce Patterson barely held on in 2006 against Democrat Mark Slavens in 2006 in this L-shaped suburban Wayne County district.  Democrats now hold every State House District that is wholly or partially in this district.  Mark Slaven’s wife Dian won the last remaining Republican held district last year, and Obama won this district comfortably.  This district will be one of the most competitive and expensive districts in the state.  If Democrats want to retake the Senate, this is a district that they almost have to win.  Former Republican-turned Democrat State Representative John Stewart, who served was an R while serving in the State House from 2000-2006 and who switched parties in 2007, is running.  The fact that he represented a 3rd of this district, and was a Republican, makes him a top tier candidate. h/t Sean Fitzpatrick

Presidential Results: 54.7 – 43.7 Obama

Announced Candidates:

John Stewart (D) Former Republican State Rep. (2000-2006) bin/cfr/com_det.cgi?com_id=514363

Potential Candidates:

Marc Corriveau (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

Kathleen Law (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Mark Slavens (D) 2006 Candidate

Phillip LaJoy (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Tossup

District 8 Ray Basham (D) OPEN

Romulus, Taylor, Lincoln Park, Allen Park, Riverview, Wyandotte

The Democrat will be strongly favored in this suburban Wayne County district that is located south of Detroit.

Presidential Results: 64.6 – 33.4 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Hoon Yung-Hopgood (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Barbarah Farrah (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Ed Clemente (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Rating: Safe Dem

District 9 Dennis Olshove (D) OPEN  Warren, Eastpointe, Fraser, St. Clair Shores

This district is Democratic but mostly socially conservative one located in southern Macomb County.  It is, along with the 10th District, the home of the “Reagan Democrats,” who also voted strongly for Obama.  The Democrat is favored here.

Presidential Results: 58.3 – 39.6 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates: Lisa Wojno (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Frank Accavitti (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Jack Brandenburg (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Likely Dem

District 10 Mickey Switalksi (D) OPEN

Sterling Heights, Utica, Roseville, Clinton, Mount Clemens

Although slightly less Democratic than the 9th, this district still favors Democrats. And like the 9th, a conservative Democrat should have no problem winning this district.  Switalski announced earlier this year that he would challenge Rep. Sandy Levin in the 12th Congressional district.

Presidential Results: 55.5 – 42.7 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Steve Bieda (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Fred Miller (D) State Rep. (2004-   )

Tory Rocca (R) State Rep. (2004-   )

Rating: Leans Democrat

District 11 Alan Sanborn (R) OPEN

Northern Macomb County

This district is very conservative, but if nutjob crazy Leon Drolet gets the Republican nomination, a Democrat would have a chance here. Still, the Republican should be favored.

Presidential Results: 50.6 – 47.7 McCain

Announced Candidates: Leon Drolet

Potential Candidates:

Kim Meltzer (R) State Rep. (2004-   )

Brian Palmer (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Likely Republican

District 12 Mike Bishop (R) OPEN

Pontiac, Rochester, Auburn Hills, North East Oakland County

Majority leader Bishop is term limited in this swing district in Oakland County.  Although President Obama won this district, I’m not extremely optimistic about picking this one up because Obama’s margin of victory was almost entirely from majority black Pontiac, where turnout won’t be as high next year.

Presidential Results: 52.5 – 46.0 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Tim Melton (D) State Rep. (2006 –  )

Tom McMillan (R) State Rep. (2008-   )

Rating: Leans Republican

District 13 John Pappageorge (R)

Royal Oak, Madison Heights, Berkley, Troy, Bloomfield, Birmingham

In 2006, State Rep. John Pappageorge beat Andy Levin (son of Sandy Levin) by less than 1,000 votes.  Many Democrats blamed Levin’s loss on Kyle McBee, the Green Party candidate who took 3,129 votes, more than 3 times Pappageorge’s margin of victory.  Democrats will challenge Pappageorge again, although it isn’t clear whether Levin will try again, or a State Representative like Marie Donigan will give it a shot.

Presidential Results: 53.7 – 44.8 Obama

Announced Challengers:

Potential Challengers:

Andy Levin (D) 2006 nominee

Marie Donigan (D) State Rep. (2002-   )

Rating: Tossup

District 14 Gilda Jacobs (D) OPEN

Farmington Hills, Southfield, Huntington Woods, Oak Park, Ferndale

This district is probably the most liberal district in Michigan, although not the most Democratic.  Rep. Gilda Jacobs is term limited, and while the all three of the State Reps. in the district are freshmen, whoever wins the Dem nomination will win.

Presidential Results: 74.6 – 24.3 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Rep. Ellen Cogen Lipton (D) (2008-   )

David Coulter (D) Oakland County Commission (2002-  )

Helaine Zack (D) Oakland County Commission (2002-  )

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 15 Nancy Cassis (R) OPEN

Novi, South Lyon, West Bloomfield Township, Northville

I was shocked when I calculated the results for this district.  A decade ago, this was at least one of, if not the most Republican area in Michigan.  Western Oakland County being so Republican is the reason that we have Thad McCotter and Craig DeRoche, and yet this district voted for Barack Obama.  Even the city of Novi voted for him.  And better yet, he won by more than 3,000 votes!  Still, locally we have a while to go before a Democrat can represent Western Oakland County in the State Legislature.  I’m not very keen on this district as a possible pickup in ’10.

Presidential Results: 50.3 – 48.2 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Craig DeRoche (R) State Rep. (2000-2006)

David Law (R) State Rep. (2004-2008)

Rating: Likely Republican

District 16 Cameron Brown (R) OPEN, Lenawee, Branch, Hillsdale, and St. Joseph Counties

I doubt this district will be competitive, unless State Rep. Dudley Spade (D) runs, but even then a Republican like Bruce Caswell starts off with an advantage.

Presidential Results: 49.8 – 48.3 McCain

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Dudley Spade (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Bruce Caswell (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rick Schaffer (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Likely Republican

District 17 Randy Richardville (R) Monroe County, South Washtenaw, East Jackson

Not only the most gerrymandered, but also one of the most closely divided districts in Michigan, this one will likely be home to another competitive race in 2010.  The Washtenaw County portion of this district favors Dems, while the Jackson county portion favors Republicans and Monroe county is a swing region.  In fact, the Presidential results here are almost exactly what President Obama got nationwide, giving it a 2008 PVI of EVEN.  Unfortunately, our bench in this district isn’t the greatest, with our strongest possible candidate running for Secretary of State.  Still, State Rep. Kate Ebli might be able to beat Richardville.

Presidential Results: 52.7 – 45.6 Obama

Announced Challengers:

Potential Challengers:

Kate Ebli (D) State Rep. (2005-   )

Rating: Leans Republican

District 18 Liz Brater (D) Open Washtenaw County, Ann Arbor

One of the most Democratic districts in Michigan and the home of the University of Michigan.  The Democratic bench in this district is quite deep.  Any Democrat is safe here.

Presidential Results: 73.7 – 26.2 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

John Hieftje (D) Mayor of Ann Arbor

Rebekah Warren (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

Pam Byrnes (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Chris Kolb (D) State Rep. (2000-2006)

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 19 VACANT (D)  Calhoun County (Battle Creek) and most of Jackson County

This is the Senate seat that Mark Schauer left vacant when he moved up to Congress last year.  It is usually a swing district, although President Obama won it with votes to spare.  Because this seat is vacant, there will be a special election to fill it later this year.  The Primary will be August 4th and the General on November 9th.

The Democratic candidates are State Rep. Martin Griffin of Jackson, and Sharon Reiner, who ran for congress in 2006 and 2008, narrowly losing to Tim Walberg and then losing badly in the primary to Mark Schauer.  Griffin is backed by the State Democratic Party and should win the Primary.  The Republican candidates are State Rep. Mike Nofs of Battle Creek and Sandstone Township Supervisor C. James Wellman.  Nofs, who is a moderate and popular in the Battle Creek area, should win the primary.  

The fact that 1. Nofs is very moderate 2. He’s very well known and liked in the Battle Creek area and 3. This will be a low turnout special election makes this a tough race for us.  Both parties with certainly spend a lot of money here.  Martin Griffin is from the Jackson area, which is an advantage, as Mark Schauer lost Jackson County in 2002 when he first ran for the State Senate.  If we lose this race it will make it that much more difficult to retake the Senate, so in some ways, whether or not Democrats can gain the trifecta and control redistricting depends on this race.

Presidential Results: 52.7 – 45.6 Obama

Candidates:  

Martin Griffin (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

Sharon Reiner (D)

Mike Nofs (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

C. James Wellman (R) Sandstone Township Board Memeber

Rating: Tossup

District 20 Thomas George (R) OPEN Kalamazoo County, part of Van Buren County

Tom George, who is running for Governor, will be vacating the 2nd most Democratic seat currently held by a Republican, going by Obama’s winning percentage.  The Republican field is already starting to shape up, with former State Rep. Lawrence Wenke, who’s district included part of Western Kalamazoo County, and current State Rep. Tonya Schuitamaker are both running.  Schuitamaker’s base is Van Buren County, which she represents.  This district only includes two townships in Van Buren, so she would probably be at a disadvantage against Wenke in the primary.  Still, Republicans would do well to nominate someone from the city of Kalamazoo or it’s suburbs, and both Wenke and Schuitamaker are from the rural parts of the district.

Democrats have a few good potential candidates.  Former state Rep. and 2006 candidate Alex Lipsey, State Rep. Robert Jones, or Kalamazoo County Commission Chairman David Buskirk.

Presidential Results: 58.6 – 39.7 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Lawrence Wenke (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Tonya Schuitamaker (R) State Rep. (2004-   )

Potential Candidates:

Alex Lipsey (D) State Rep. (2000-2006)

Robert Jones (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

David Buskirk (D) Kalamazoo County Commissioner; Chairman

Rating: Tossup

District 21 Ron Jelinek (R) OPEN Berrien, Cass and Van Buren Counties

A historically Republican area, President Obama did very well here.  This area is home to a lot of moderate Republicans (Fred Upton is from this area), and Berrien County is home to a lot of African-Americans.  Democrats have a very weak bench here, so don’t expect a win here.

Presidential Results: 52.1 – 46.3 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Judy Truesdell (D) 2006 and 2008 Candidate for State House

John Proos (R) State Rep. (2002-   )

Rating: Leans Republican

District 22 Valde Garcia (R) OPEN Livingston, Shiawassee, and Southern Ingham Counties

Livingston County is one of the most Republican Counties in Michigan.  You can be sure that another conservative “family values” Republican will be elected to replace Senator Garcia.

Presidential Results: 52.4 – 45.8 McCain

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Joe Hune (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Chris Ward (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Safe Republican

District 23 Gretchen Whitmer (D) Ingham County (Lansing)

Gretchen Whitmer will be safe if she runs for re-election.  If she runs for Attorney General, as many expect her to, there is a strong bench of Democrats in the lansing area to take her place.

Presidential Results: 67.2 – 31.3 Obama

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 24 Patricia Birkholz (R) OPEN Allegan, Barry, and Eaton Counties

Although Eaton county showed an impressive swing towards President Obama, the rest of this district, especially heavily Dutch Allegan, is still strongly Republican.

Presidential Results: 50.5 – 47.6 McCain

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Brian Calley (R) State Rep. (2006-   )

Rick Jones (R) State Rep. (2004-   )

Fulton Sheen (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Safe Republican

District 25 Judson Gilbert (R) OPEN Lapeer and St. Clair Counties

Lapeer and St. Clair Counties are mostly suburban/exurban areas north of Detroit.  There is also quite a bit of rural farmland and the medium sized city of Port Huron.  A democrat could win here, expecially moderate like John Espinoza, although he doesn’t actually live in the district.  The Republicans have a deep bench here, and I’m not sure whether or not the State Democratic party will decide to put money here.

Presidential Results: 49.2 – 48.6

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

John Espinoza (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Phillip Pavlov (R) State Rep. (2004-  )

John Stahl (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Leans Republican

District 26 Deb Cherry (D) OPEN North and East Genesee County, Central Oakland County, Waterford

I don’t know why, but for some reason Republicans gave this suburban Flint area district an arm that reaches into central Oakland County, and they actually used touch-point contiguity to connect it to Waterford Township.  Maybe it was to make this district more Republican, although Waterford voted easily for Obama.  This district was held by Lt. Gov. John Cherry, and is now held by his sister, Deb.  It’s comfortably Democratic, but rising star, moderate African-American Republican Paul Scott could concievably give a Democrat a run for their money.

Presidential Results: 55.8 – 42.4 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Richard Hammel (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

Jim Slezak (D) State Rep. (2008-   )

Ted Hammon (D) State Rep. (2006-2008)

Fran Amos (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Paul Scott (R) State Rep. (2008-  )

Rating: Leans Democrat

District 27 John Gleason (D) Flint, South-West Genesee County

The other Genessee County District, this one is much more Democratic.  It includes the city of Flint and other very Democratic areas west of the city.  If Gleason primaries Dale Kildee, there is a big Democratic bench here.

Presidential Results: 68.8 – 29.7 Obama

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 28 Mark Jansen (R) Kent County, suburban Grand Rapids

The 28th District is very strangely shaped.  It skirts around the city of Grand Rapids but includes conservative suburbs like Wyoming.  Mark Jansen should have not trouble winning re-election.

Presidential Results: 55.9 – 42.5 McCain

Rating: Safe Republican

District 29 Bill Hardiman (R) OPEN Grand Rapids, Kentwood

This is another district that we almost must win if we want to retake the senate.  It is the most Democratic district currently held by a Republican, going by Barack Obama’s winning margin.  It is basically all of the city of Grand Rapids plus a few suburbs.  Both Republicans and Democrats have decent benches here, but Democrats have been making gains lately (we won a state house seat in 2006).  I think that at the end of the day, the Democrat will win this district.

Presidential Results: 59.1 – 39.3 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Michael Sak (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

David LaGrand (D) Grand Rapids City Commissioner and 2006 Candidate

George Heartwell (D) Grand Rapids Mayor

Carol Hennessy (D) Minority Vice-Chair, Kent County Commission

Dave Hildenbrand (R) State Rep. (2004-  )

Glenn Steil (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Justin Amash (R) State Rep. (2008-   )

Jerry Kooiman (R) State Rep. (2000-2006)

Rating: Tossup

District 30 Wayne Kuipers (R) OPEN Ottawa County

This district is home to Ottawa County, one of the fastest growing and most Republican counties in Michigan.  Although, like with the South, as the population grows, so does the Democratic performance.  I’d estimate we may start winning this district by the 2020’s, but until then it will remain safely in Republican hands.

Presidential Results: 61.0 – 37.4 McCain

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

David Agema (R) State Rep. (2006-  )

Arlan Meekhof (R) State Rep. (2006-  )

Rating: Safe Republican

District 31 James Barcia (D) OPEN Sanilac, Huron, Tuscola, Bay, and Arenac Counties

Former Congressman James Barcia is term limited in this big district which includes the “Thumb” region and wraps around Saginaw Bay, including Bay City.  It’s relatively Democratic, although not overwhelmingly.  Democrats have a good bench, and State Rep. Jeff Mayes would be a big improvement over the moderate to conservative Barcia.

Presidential Results: 51.8 – 46.3 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Jeff Mayes (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Terry Brown (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

John Espinoza (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Rating: Leans Democrat

District 32 Roger Kahn (R) Saginaw and Gratiot Counties

In 2006, Roger Kahn (AKA Kaaahn!!) won this seat by only 450 votes.  He’s had sort of a rough first term, alledgedly getting into a physical altercation with a 72 year old female Senator Irma Clark-Coleman (D) of Detroit.  The incident was so bizarre that I think that I should post here excerpts from Clark-Coleman’s letter to Majority leader Bishop:

I submit this letter as a formal complaint against the State Senator

from the 32nd District who is a menace to the state legislature. He

perpetrated petulant and violent behavior toward me following a Senate

Appropriation committee meeting yesterday afternoon in the Capitol

building. I ask that you sanction him for conduct unbecoming of an

elected official. I am fearful that given the opportunity, this

legislator would continue to use physical intimidation to reinforce his

policy positions.

He accosted me inside of the main elevator. He rushed at me as if he

were going to strike me in the face after I expressed my great

displeasure with the committee’s approval of the Senate substitute for

HB 4436, which decimates Wayne County’s and Detroit’s ability to provide

mental and medical treatment for poor and uninsured residents…

The Senator from Saginaw charged at me like a bull while we were both

confined in a 6 x 6 elevator. His hysterical behavior startled

citizens who like me were simply trying to leave the Capitol building.

Everyone looked on in horror until the good Senator from the 13th

District blocked his advance to my side of the elevator car.

As the doors opened on the ground floor, the Senator from Troy took me

by the elbow and escorted me out of harm’s way. Despite my exit, the

legislator from the 32nd District continued his verbal assault. His

bellowing startled the Kentwood Senator and the state Budget Director

who were conversing at the visitor’s desk. Both gentlemen looked up in

utter amazement.

Never, in my twelve years as a state legislator, seven years as a member

of the Detroit Board of Education, and thirty years as a Wayne County

employee have I been attacked for my policy positions. I commend Troy’s

best for his quick action to shield me from my aggressor who had lost

control of his temper and his ability to reason.

Senator Kahn denies this, although it’s pretty crazy if true.  That, plus the Democratic nature of this district means he should be in for a tough race next year.

Presidential Results: 56.9 – 41.5 Obama

Announced Challengers:

Potential Challengers:

Andy Colouris (D) State Rep. (2006-   )

Carl Williams (D) State Rep. (2000-2006) and 2006 Candidate

Rating: Tossup

District 33 Alan Cropsey (R) OPEN Clinton, Montcalm, Isabella, and Ionia Counties

Cropsey, who has always been to conservative for his district, is term limited.  Based mostly on his strength in Isabella County (home to CMU), Barack Obama won this district.  We also picked up a State House seat within this district last year, and we will probably pick up another one next year.  Still, our bench is not very strong here.  Democratic turnout may not be a strong next year, either, so I’m cautious about this district.

Presidential Results: 50.7 – 47.4 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Mike Huckleberry (D) State Rep. (2008-  ), 2004 and 2006 candidate for Congress

Bill Caul (R) State Rep. (2004-   )

Paul Opsommer (R) State Rep. (2006-  )

Rating: Leans Republican

District 34 Gerald VanWoerkom (R) OPEN Muskegon, Oceana, Newaygo, and Mason Counties

It’s difficult to tell this far out, but I think that if we win any seats next year, this is our best shot.  Moderate Muskegon Republican Gerald VanWoerkom is retiring, and the Republican candidate to replace him looks to be State Rep. Geoff Hansen, although former State Rep. David Farhat it “thinking about it.”

Either way, we start out with an advantage.  Unlike VanWoerkom, who represented Muskegon County in the House, Hansen hails from the rural Northern portion of the district.  David Farhat, on the other hand, represented the same district as VanWoerkom.  That is, until he was spanked in 2006 by Dem Mary Valentine (he lost 56-44).  Mary Valentine has announced that she is running. Her popularity in the more suburban and rural part of the district and the fact that Farhat is thought to be somewhat corrupt, and Hansen has no base in Muskegon tells me that this one looks like a pickup.

Presidential Results: 58.3 – 40.0 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Mary Valentine (D) State Rep. (2006-   )

Geoff Hansen (R) State Rep. (2004-   )

Potential Candidates:

Mary Valentine (D) State Rep. (2006-   )

Doug Bennett (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Julie Dennis (D) State Rep. (1998-2004) and 2006 Candidate

David Farhat (R) State Rep. (2002-2006)

Rating: Leans Democrat

District 35 Michelle McManus (R) OPEN Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, Kalkaska, Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Lake, Osceola, Clare, and Mecosta Counties

I consider Michelle McManus to be Michigan’s version of Michelle Bachmann.  She’s crazy, loud, and extremely conservative.  Luckily, she’s term limited.  Unluckily, she’s running for Secretary of State.  I doubt, however, that she’ll make it out of the Primary.  Obama won her district, and we picked up a State House seat, but our bench is weak in the North-Western Lower Peninsula area.  

Presidential Results: 49.3 – 49.0 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Darwin Booher (R) State Rep. (2004-   )

David Palsrok (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Leans Republican

District 36 Tony Stamas (R) OPEN Alpena, Alcona, Iosco, Ogemaw, Midland, Gladwin, Crawford, Montmorency, Oscoda, and Otsego Counties

Although Republican leaning nationally, this is a swing district in local in statewide races.  The southernmost county, Midland, favors Republicans.  In fact, the Republicans intetionally drew the Democratic northern Counties, especially Alpena, with Midland to create a Republican district.  In 2002, Alpena Democrat Andy Neumann ran against Midland Republican Tony Stamas, with Stamas prevailing narrowly.  Stamas in now term limited and Neumann, who is a State Representative, is “Strongly Leaning Towards running,” also likely to run is State Rep. Joel Sheltrown (D), who is more moderate than Neumann, and also not from the Alpena area, but Iosco County in the center of the district.  I think that Sheltrown would be a stronger candidate, but the primary will be nasty.  The Republican candidate will probably be former State Rep. John Moolenaar of Midland.

Presidential Results: 49.9 – 48.1 McCain

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Andy Neumann (D) State Rep. (1998-2002, 2008-   )

Joel Sheltrown (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

John Moolenaar (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Tossup

District 37 Jason Allen (R) OPEN Grand Traverse, Antrim, Charlevoix, Emmett, Cheboygan, Presque Isle, Mackinac, and Chippewa Counties

This is the most Republican Northern Michigan District.  I starts at Traverse City, then jumps the Straits of Mackinac and takes in Mackinac and Chippewa Counties in the U.P., including Sault Ste. Marie.  The Traverse City area has quite a few Republicans to replace Senator Allen, but Emmett, Mackinac, and Chippewa Counties, also a Republican area, are represented by State Rep. Gary McDowell (D).  McDowell is term limited and I could concievably see him winning this district, although it would be an uphill climb.

Presidential Results: 50.8 – 47.5

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Gary McDowell (D) State Rep. (2004-   )

Howard Walker (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Leans Republican

District 38 Mike Prusi (D) OPEN Keweenaw, Houghton, Ontonagon, Gogebic, Baraga, Iron, Dickinson, Marquette, Menominee, Delta, Alger, Schoolcraft, and Luce Counties.

My home district! I’ll be sad to see Prusi go, but it’s more important that we get a progressive Dem like him to take his place.  The Democratic bench is deep, the Republican one, not so much.  The Presidential results are a bit misleading, as the Democratic baseline here is far higher than President Obama’s total (which was still a comfortable win).  The most likely candidate is probably former State Rep. Tom Casperson, although the spanking he received at the Hands of Bart Stupak last year make keep him out of politics forever.  If he doesn’t run, it’s likely Dem.  If he does, it’s leans Dem.  Democrats hold every house seat in this district, and other than Casperson, we have for years, so we’ve got a very strong bench.  The two progressive Dems, Steve Lindberg and fmr. Rep. Steve Adamini are from Marquette, while the more conservative Reps are Mike Lahti of Houghton County and Judy Nerat of Menominee County.  

Presidential Results: 52.5 – 45.5

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Steve Lindberg (D) State Rep. (2006-   )

Mike Lahti (D) State Rep. (2006-   )

Steve Adamini (D) State Rep. (2000-2006), 2008 Candidate for Marquette County Prosecutor, Northern Michigan University Board of Trustees

Judy Nerat (D) State Rep. (2008-   )

Tom Casperson (R) State Rep. (2002-2008) and 2008 Candidate for Congress

Joel Westrom (R) First District GOP chairman and 2006 Candidate for State House

Rating: Leans Democrat

And for those who skipped some of that, here’s my summary.  Republican seats are bold and italic

Safe Democrat Seats

District 1 (OPEN)

District 2 (OPEN)

District 3 (OPEN)

District 4 (OPEN)

District 5 Hunter

District 8 (OPEN)

District 14 (OPEN)

District 23 (OPEN)

District 27 Gleason

Likely Democrat Seats

District 6 Anderson

District 9 (OPEN)

Leans Democrat Seats

District 10 (OPEN)

District 26 (OPEN)

District 31 (OPEN)

District 34 (OPEN)

District 38 (OPEN)

Tossup Seats

District 7 (OPEN)

District 13 Pappageorge

District 19 VACANT

District 20 (OPEN)

District 29 (OPEN)

District 32 Kahn

District 36 (OPEN)

Lean Republican Seats

District 12 (OPEN)

District 17 Richardville

District 21 (OPEN)

District 25 (OPEN)

District 33 (OPEN)

District 35 (OPEN)

District 37 (OPEN)

Likely Republican Seats

District 11 (OPEN)

District 15 (OPEN)

District 16 (OPEN)

Safe Republican Seats

District 22 (OPEN)

District 24 (OPEN)

District 28 Jansen

District 30 (OPEN)

Ok, so this is my first redistricting diary not focused on Michigan.  I chose the state of South Carolina for several reasons, it’s relatively small, it will probably gain a seat, and that new seat may be a Majority-Minority seat.  I don’t know if the DOJ will require a new Min-Maj seat, or what the recent Supreme Court decision has to do with this.  

The rest of the map I drew with a Republican gerrymander in mind.  I tried to dislodge Rep. Spratt, and I think that I was probably successful.  I also made Rep. Brown and Rep. Wilson safer, in light of their recent competitive races last year.  

This map is incredibly gerrymandered.  I mean incredibly.  I don’t know much about SC, so let me know if I’ve done something wrong.

District 1- Henry Brown (R) Blue

72% White, 19% African American, 6% Hispanic

Drops all of Horry County (Myrtle Beach) in exchange for Beaufort, Hilton Head area.  Drops some heavily African American areas in exchange for more Republican Charleston areas.

District 2- Joe Wilson (R) Green

77% White, 17% African American, 3% Hispanic

This is the most gerrymandered non-VRA seat, mostly so that it can cede it’s black areas to the new 7th District.  It follows the SC-GA border, then winds down to the Columbia area and takes in almost all of Lexington County, where Wilson’s home is located. AA population drops almost 10% and this district is much safer for Wilson.

District 3- TBD (successor of Gresham Barrett) Purple

78% White, 14% African American, 5% Hispanic

Includes all of Oconee and Pickens as well as northern Greenville and Spartanburg Counties and winds down to pick up some conservative Columbia suburbs formerly in Wilson’s district.  This district includes Barretts home but may or may not contain the home of his successor, which could be problematic if he or she is from Anderson County. Black population drops 6%

District 4- Bob Inglis (R) Red

70% White, 22% African American, 5% Hispanic

Includes all of Anderson Couny and the cities of Greenville and Spartanburg.  By far this is the least gerrymandered district in the state.  Because it now grabs Aiken County and due to growing minority populations in North SC, the African American and Hispanic populations actually go up in this district slightly.

District 5- John Spratt (D) Yellow

75% White, 18% African American, 4% Hispanic

I drew this district with the intend of defeating John Spratt, because I doubt that South Carolina Republicans settle for a 3-4 Delegation, especially because 2 districts are VRA.  The African American vote here is nearly halved, and the district now stretches into Horry County and includes all of Myrtle Beach, a Republican stronghold.  I don’t know whether Spratt would win this district, but he may decide to retire rather than find out.

District 6- Jim Clyburn (D) Blue-Green

52% African American, 43% White, 2% Hispanic



This district takes in more of Columbia than before and stretches north into Fairfield, Chester, and Union Counties.  To stay majority African American, and to hurt Spratt, it has now grown several oogie tentacles that slither into some of the more rural African American areas, as well as a few small cities.  Don’t worry though, it remains contiguous.  Despite the additon of another majority Black district, the AA population only falls about 5%

District 7- NEW (D) Gray

54% African American, 41% White, 3% Hispanic



I’ll admit, this district is awfull, but maybe not as awful as it looks at first glance. It starts by taking in the Black neighborhoods of Charleston and North Charleston, the takes in as many black majority tracts as humanly posible without going into Columbia.  I tried to salvage some integrity for this map, so I made sure that there were no oogie tentacles like in the 6th, so give me credit for that at least.

What does everyone think? Are they legal?

Update– Based on comments and criticism, I’ve totally redrawn my map, this time giving Spratt the African American majority seat instead of creating a new one.  This district is  a thousand times less gerrymandered than the last, so I think you’ll all like it much better.

Spratt’s New District is exactly 50% Black

While Clyburn’s is about 55% Black.

To compensate for lost population, Clyburn’s district takes in more of both the Charleston and Columbia areas.

The  new 7th district follows the North Carolina border from Spartanburg to Myrtle Beach, taking up much of what was Spratt’s District.  The other districts remain almost unchanged, although the first and second become a few percentage points more white. I tried very hard to split as few counties as possible, and even though it may look bad, many counties remain compact in even the 5th and 6th Districts.

Lately there has been a lot of Debate over the number of Democratic Congressional Districts that Democrats could gerrymander out of the state of Michigan if they had complete control (right now they hold the Governorship and State House.  They stand a good chance at taking control of the State Senate while the Governor’s race is a tossup).  A few people, namely IHateBush, have said that it is possible to succesfully draw a map that would yield 12 Democratic seats and only 2 Republican seats.  I’ve been trying for several weeks to draw a 12-2 map, meanwhile protecting endangered incumbents (specifically Schauer) and I’ve determined that a 12-2 map would be far overeaching and in a neutral or Republican leaning year might end up 9-5 or worse. I think the best Michigan Democrats could do is create 11 safe or Democrat leaning districts and 3 strongly Republican districts.  I’ve drawn a map that I think does just that, although I still am not entirely confident that we could hold both of my “Thumb” districts in a Republican year.  But without further ado, here’s my map.

District 1 (Bart Stupak D):  Since this is my home district, and I couldn’t face the specter of Tom Casperson or some other Republican becoming my Congressman when Bart Stupak retires, I’ve gone to pretty great lengths to make this one safer.  I added the remainder of Bay County, Isabella County (home to CMU) Clare County, and Roscommon County, all counties that President Obama won.  I took out the Republican leaning counties of Charlevoix, Antrim, Crawford, Oscoda, Otsego, and Montmorency.  Overall Obama’s performance in this district goes from about 50% to about 53%.

District 2 (Vern Ehlers R) this is probably the most gerrymandered looking of all of my new districts, but it has to be if we are going to have a Democrat leaning district in Western Michigan.  It takes in the Dem leaning Counties of Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, Lake, Mason, and Oceana along the Lake Michigan shore, the Strongly Democratic County of Muskegon, and then tentacles into Kent County and picks up the cities of Grand Rapids, Kentwood, East Grand Rapids, and Wyoming.  Barack Obama won this district 57.2-41.1 giving it a nice, healthy PVI of D+4.3. Vern Ehlers likely would not be reelected to this district.

District 3 (Fred Upton R + TBD [successor to Pete Hoekstra] R) I’ve combined the old 2nd and 6th districts to form this heavily Republican District.  It takes in Ottawa, Allegan, Van Buren, Northern Berrien, and suburban Kent Counties.  Whoever succeeds Pete Hoekstra next year would probably be favored in a Primary against Upton, who is somewhat too moderate for this very conservative district.

District 4 (Dave Camp R) another one of my heavily Republican districts, this one takes in some of the rural and conservative Counties in Northern and Central Lower Peninsula, but it is based in Midland and Traverse City (Grand Traverse County) Barack Obama only won 2 counties in this new district, Gratiot and Clinton.  Dave Camp’s home in Midland is preserved in the new 4th.

District 5 (Open, leans D)  The new 5th district is the one that I would be least confident of us holding in a Republican year, but still in a neutral year it favors us. It has a PVI of about D+2-3 and it includes the Democratic County of Saginaw, about 2/3 of staunchly Democratic Genesee county (minus the city of flint) the Dem leaning Shiawassee County, sparsely populated Republican Counties in “the Thumb” and Tossup St. Clair County. Luckily former Democratic Congressman James Barcia’s home in Bay City is not in this district, for we really could get a more progressive Congressperson from this district. (State Sen. John Gleason, perhaps?)

District 6 (Mark Schauer D) I increased the Democratic performance in this district by drawing strongly Democratic Kalamazoo County out of Upton’s district and into this one.  I also added tossup county Cass and the Democrat leaning portions of Berrien County.  I took out Jackson and Lenawee County as well as the portion of Washtenaw that was in this district.

District 7 (Open, Democrat) It’s high time that Lansing is put into a Democratic district again, and that’s just what I’ve done.  This new district is L shaped and contains Ingham, Jackson, Hillsdale, Lenawee, and Monroe Counties.  Barack Obama won all these counties, except Hillsdale. Obama won the district 56.4-41.9 giving it a 2008 PVI of D+3.5.  If I had to guess what Democrat might win this district, I’d say State Rep. Barb Byrum (daughter of 2000 candidate Diane Byrum), State Sen. Gretchen Whitmer (distinction of being the “most liberal” Senator), or Lansing mayor and Former state Senator Virg Bernero.

District 8 (Gary Peters D) I’ve made this one a bit more Democratic by removing the cities of Rochester and Troy while adding Berkley, Southfield, and the rest of Waterford Township.  Removing the city of Troy also removes a potential future challenger to Peters, State Rep. Marty Knollenberg (son of Joe Knollenberg).  This district should be safe for Peters or a future Democrat if he runs for higher office.

District 9 (Candice Miller R + Dale Kildee D)  In 2002, Republicans drew David Bonior’s (D) Congressional District http://factfinder.census.gov/s… much more Republican, forcing him to retire or face certain defeat at the hands of their preffered candidate, Secretary of State Candice Miller.  It’s payback time.  I’ve drawn the most Democratic parts of Macomb County, including Miller’s home, into a district with exurban Republican Lapeer County, as well as the 90-10 Obama city of Flint, and other staunchly Democratic portions of Genesse County.  This includes Dale Kildee’s home, but he’ll be in his eightees by 2012 so he probably won’t be the one running against Miller, if Miller runs at all.

District 10 (Mike Rogers R) The last Republican district that I drew, the 10th includes fast growing and largely Republican Livingston County (home to Mike Rogers), Northern and Western Oakland County, and Shelby township in Macomb County. I considered drawing Livonia (Thad McCotter’s home) into this district as well, but I don’t want there to be any chance that he returns to Congress

District 11 (Sander Levin D) This distric largely reverts to it’s pre-2002 boundaries.  It now would contain all of Sterling Heights, Warren, Troy, Clawson, and Royal Oak, along with the most Democratic south Oakland Suburbs.  This district would be safe for Levin’s successor (hopefully state Rep. Ellen Cogen Lipton).

District 12 (Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrict D) Doesn’t change much except that it moves farther south and includes all of Dearborn.  It’s still majority African American and very strongly Democrat.  The only problem with the configuration of this district is that John Dingell lives in Dearborn.  If he is still serving in 2012 (which I doubt) a tendril can be drawn from the 14th District to pick up his home so that he wouldn’t be drawn into Kilpatrick’s district.

District 13 (John Conyers D + Thad McCotter R) Contains all of Northern Detroit and also reaches all the was west to include Redford Township, Livonia, Northville and Plymouth.  There’s no way Thad McCotter could win this majority African American Detroit District.  Safe for Conyers and his successors.

District 14 (Open D) This one looks very much like Lynn River’s old district http://factfinder.census.gov/l… and would probably elect an Ann Arbor Democrat (State Sen. Liz Brater, fmr. State Rep. Chris Kolb, who would be the first openly gay congressman from Michigan, or maybe even Rivers if she wants to get back into politics.) Also includes a large portion of Suburban Wayne County taking in the Democratic cities of Canton and Westland. If John Dingell is still serving and runs for re-election in 2012, then a tendril will have to be drawn to include his home in Dearborn, but when he finally retires it will probably elect someone more progressive.  Obama won this district 64.5-32.6.

What does everyone think of my map? Suggestions, corrections, questions, comments? I want to hear them.

I know redistricting diaries are a dime a dozen these days, but I’m going to do one that has never been done before: Michigan (assuming full Democratic control of the process).  Nathaniel90 already drew a split control compromise map found here: http://www.swingstateproject.c…  

Michigan will be losing a seat in 2012, going from 15 to 14.  I think the chances of full Democratic control is about 50-50 or maybe slightly better.  It looks like we have a very good shot at taking back control of the State Senate, while the Governors race is still pretty much up in the air, with presumptive nominee John Cherry lagging in the most recent poll.  But this far out, no one can predict this one yet.

By this map Democrats would presumably hold a 9-5 advantage in Representation.  They currently hold a 8-7 Advantage.  In 2002, when Republicans drew the map, they (Rs) held a 9-6 advantage.  My map protects freshmen Gary Peters and Mark Schauer, while throwing Dave Camp and Mike Rogers into a district together.  It also draws a much more Democratic district for Thaddeus McCotter (or his Democratic successor), presumably eliminating him if he isn’t already gone by 2012.

My map was drawn on microsoft paint, and some of the more detailed borders aren’t exact.  Also my computer has some kind of problem with pixelation or something, so it may appear a little blurry.  Without further ado, here’s my map with district profiles down below the flip.  

District 1– (Bart Stupak D) mostly the same but expands to include Kalkaska, Roscommon, and the rest of Bay County.  Overall becomes slightly more Democratic.

District 2– (TBD[successor of Pete Hoekstra]R) gives up Allegan County in the south, as well as Eastern portions of Ottawa County and the North-West corner of Kent County that was formerly in the district.  Gains Leelanau, Grand Traverse, Missaukee, and Osceola Counties.  This district becomes a bit more Democratic (mostly because it loses strongly conservative parts of Ottawa and Kent Counties) and Barack Obama would have carried this district narrowly, but it should still favor Republicans in the future.

District 3– (Vern Ehlers R) Drops Barry and Ionia County in exchange for some very Conservative areas of Kent and Ottawa Counties.  Becomes more Republican.

District 4– (Dave Camp R + Mike Rogers R) I decided that I would throw these two together because I did not want to eliminate Thad McCotter in case he is defeated by a Democrat in 2010. I put Livingston County (Rogers base and home) in with most of the current 4th District. Dave Camp should be the favorite considering it includes his base of Midland as well as most of his old turf, but I wouldn’t count Mike Rogers out.  The inclusion of Livingston County makes this district more Republican.  Barack Obama would have lost here.

5th District– (Dale Kildee D)  Looks like a combination of James Barcia’s old District and Dale Kildee’s current district.  It drops all of the territory it held in Bay County but gains the more Republican thumb counties of Huron and Sanilac.  However, with Flint as the base of this district and Genesee County making up more than half of the population, this District stays Democratic.

6th District– (Fred Upton R) This is the most gerrymandered district in the state, and yet it only splits one County!  This district looks quite a bit different from it’s current shape  It’s base of Kalamazoo is taken out to make Mark Schauer safer.  In exchange it gets all of Allegan, Barry, and Branch counties and about half of Eaton County.  The loss of Kalamazoo makes this district a lot more Republican, although Barack Obama may have won here, depending on exactly what parts of Eaton County are included.

7th District–  (Mark Schauer D) I think that I succeeded in making Mark Schauer safe from any Republican challenge, but I fear that I may have set him up for a primary challenge from a Lansing area Democrat, as Lansing becomes the new base of this district.  The only part of the old 7th district that I left was Calhoun County (Battle Creek) which is Schauer’s home.  I put in all of Ingham and Kalamazoo Counties and about half of Eaton.  Barack Obama won every county in this district and probably came close to 60% here.

8th District– (Gary Peters D)  It is hard to tell on my map, but according to my plan for the 8th district, Gary Peters would get Madison Heights and Southfield, both extremely Democratic cities (Barack Obama got 88% in Southfield), while dropping the strongly Republican cities of Rochester, Rochester Hills, and Berkley.  The addition of Southfield probably brings Barack Obama to around 60% here.

9th District– (Candice Miller R)  Instead of a “Thumb” district, this district becomes a “Detroit suburbs and exurbs district.” It loses Sterling Heights and Utica in Macomb County, and Huron and Sanilac Counties in “The Thumb,” While picking up some seriously Republican turf in Oakland County, including the suburb Novi that is currently in Thad McCotters 11th District.  It still includes the Republican leaning Exurb St. Clair and Lapeer Counties.

10th District– (Thad McCotter R [Should favor Democrat])  Includes all of Thad McCotter’s current portion of Wayne County, plus the cities of Inkster, Romulus, and part of Dearborn Heights.  The current part of Wayne County in the 11th gave Obama 57%.  That probably bumps up to just under 60% Obama.  Also includes Monroe County, which Obama won 51-47.

11th District– (Sander Levin D)  Changes very little, except that it swaps out Southfield for the rest of Sterling Heights.  Becomes a bit less Democratic, but still favors Levin or his successor.

12th District– (Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick D)  One of two VRA protected districts in Michigan.  Population loss will force this district to expand, but it still stays within Wayne County and is majority Black.

13th District–  (John Conyers D)  The other VRA district expands into Dearborn but stays heavily Black and heavily Democratic. (Note that John Dingell’s home is in this new district, but I expect that he’ll have retired by 2012 and if frankly, if Debbie Dingell is holding his seat by then, I really don’t care if she gets stuck in Conyer’s district)

14th District– (John Dingell D)  This district moves out of Wayne County and now takes in all of Washtenaw County as well as Jackson, Lenawee, and Hillsdale Counties.  It is now completely based in Ann Arbor and should elect a liberal, Ann Arbor Democrat.  Barack Obama won three out of the four Counties in this new district.

Questions? Comments? Errors to point out?  Leave ’em in the comments.