Author: Menhen

This is part one of my three part series of diaries that I will be publishing this weekend handicapping the major 2010 races in the state of Michigan.

Today I will be publishing my U.S. House outlook, tomorrow the State Senate, and Sunday the State House of Representatives.  

House District 1: Upper Peninsula and Northern Lower Peninsula.  On Monday, Republicans announced that they plan to challenge Bart Stupak again in 2010.  Apparently Pete Sessions has not learned the lesson that Tom Cole learned in 2008.  For those not familiar with the story, State Rep. Tom Casperson was recruited to run against Stupak by Tom Cole, and national Republicans hyped Casperson as a top tier challenger and golden opportunity for Republicans to knock off the popular moderate Democrat.  No such thing happened, and Casperson was pounded by Stupak 65-33.  

Now, maybe Sessions thinks that Stupak will retire.  I’ll admit, it’s possible.  But that still leaves them with the problem of recruiting a Republican with any significant name recognition.  Casperson may run again, or he may run for the State Senate.  Either way, if he couldn’t break 35% against Stupak, I doubt he could win an open seat.  Another Republican possibility is State Rep. Kevin Elsenheimer who will be term limited in 2010, but Elsenheimer is from the lower peninsula, not the U.P.  I doubt that any Republican could win this if they aren’t from the U.P., and even a downstate Democrat would have a hard time if the Republican is from the U.P.  Elsenheimer is the only Republican state legislator who lives in the 1st District, so he may start out as a front runner if he runs.

As for Democrat Candidates if there’s an open seat, the favorite should be term limited State Senator and Minority Leader Mike Prusi, but State Reps. Mike Lindberg, Mike Lahti, and Gary McDowell would all be formidable opponents to any Republican.

Rating: Safe Democrat, (Leans Democrat if Stupak Retires).

District 2: Lake Michigan Shoreline, Muskegon, Ottawa County.  The 2nd District is the most Repulbican in the state of Michigan.  It is historically conservative, very Evangelical, and has a high Dutch population.  Congressman Pete Hoekstra has already announced that he is going to retire in 2010, probably to run for Governor.

Encouraged by Barack Obama’s good showing in this district, some might be inclined to view this as a potential Democratic pickup.  I think that the chances of a Democrat winning this district is slim to none.  Republican state legislators are already lining up to succeed Hoekstra, and I doubt any notable Democrat would risk there political career to run against any one of them.

State Senator Wayne Kuipers (R) and State Rep. Bill Huizenga (R) are both running already.  Both are from Ottawa county, the conservative base of the District.  State Senator Gerald VanWoerkom, a Republican from Muskegon, may run as well.  VanWoerkom is far more moderate, and if Kuipers and Huizenga split the conservative, Ottawa County vote, VanWoerkom could sneak up and win the Republican primary.

Democrat State Reps. Mary Valentine and Doug Bennett are the only Democrat elected officials in the district, but I doubt either would take on such a suicide mission.  Former State Rep. Julie Dennis may run, but I do not think she would be a very legitimate candidate.

Rating: Likely Republican

District 3:  Kent County (Grand Rapids).  The third District is also very republican, but not as conservative as the second District.  Vern Ehlers is safe if he runs for re election.  If he retires, Republicans would have a clear advantage, but the right Democrat could win this district.

If Ehlers retires, State Senators Jud Gilbert or Mike Hardiman would be likely replacements.  Former State Representative Michael Sak, a Democrat, would make a good candidate.  He is moderate, and from Grand Rapids city, but was recently criticized for alledgedly appearing drunk at a Governors assosciation meeting.  State Reps. Robert Dean or Wayne Schmidt could also run.

Rating: Safe Republican (Leans Republic an in Ehlers Retires)

District 4: Central lower Peninsula, Midland.  Rep. Dave Camp will likely run for re-election in 2010, and Democrats will likely not give him a vigorous challenge, even though the 4th is a swing district that Barack Obama won.  Freshman State Rep. Mike Huckleberry may challenge Camp, he already did so in 2006, but he is unlikely to do any better than he did then.  And I doubt he would want to give up his new seat, anyway.

Rating: Safe Republican

District 5: Flint, Saginaw, Bay City.  If Dale Kildee does not retire in 2010, expect a primary challenge from State Senator John Gleason.  Gleason considered challenging Kildee in 2008, but opted to stay in the Senate.  He is term limited in 2010.  Republicans will not seriously contest this seat, no matter who wins the Democratic Primary.  

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 6: South-West MI, Kalamzoo.  Moderate Republican Fred Upton may or may not run for re-election in 2010.  If he does, he is probably safe.  If not, the 6th District becomes a pure tossup.  Obama got 54% in this District, but Democrats have no significant bench of candidates here.

Robert Jones is the only elected Democratic legislator in the district, but he and his predeccessor, Alexander Lipsey, are both African-American.  I doubt an African American could win this district (it has a lot of conservative voters in Berrien and Van Buren Counties).  However, former Kalamazoo mayor and current Vice-Mayor Hannah McKinney would make a decent candidate.

Republicans Tonya Schuitimaker, John Proos, and Ron Jelinek could all run to succeed Upton if he retired.

Rating: Safe Republican (Tossup if Upton retires)

District 7:  South MI, Battle Creek, Jackson.  Freshman Mark Schauer will likely face a difficult re-election in 2010.  He only beat Rep. Tim Walberg 49-46 in 2008, certainly a smaller margin than I expected.

Possible Republican candidates include former Rep. Mike Nofs, Sen. Cameron Brown, and Rep. Rick Jones.  Walberg may run agian, but he is unlikely to beat Schauer in a rematch.  

Obama won this district, and the Republicans in this district tend to vote for Conservative Republicans in the Primary, rather than moderates (See Schwarz, Joe vs. Walberg, Tim).  A conservative Republican would have an uphill climb against Schauer.  All in all, Schauer will have the advantage of incumbency going for him, and should be favored.

Rating: Leans Democrat

District 8:  Lansing, Livingston County, N. Oakland County.  This may finally be the year that Democrats seriously challenge Mike Rogers.  In 2000, Rogers barely beat Democrat Diane Byrum to succeed Democrat Debbie Stabenow, who ran successfully for the Senate.  Since then, he has not been seriously challenged in this marginal district.

Rogers may run for governor, which would give Democrats an even better chance at picking up this district.  we have a strong bench here, as the district is centered around heavily Democratic Ingham County, home of Lansing.  Possible Democrats include Lansing mayor and former State Senator Virg Bernero, State Rep. and former East Lansing Mayor Mark Meadows, State Senator Gretchen Whitimer, State Rep. Joan Bauer, and State Rep. Barb Byrum, daughter of 2000 candidate Diane Byrum.

If Rogers does run for Governor, Livingston State Senator Valde Garcia would be the likely Republican candidate.

Rating: Likely Republican (Tossup if Rogers runs for Governor)

District 9: Central Oakland County.  Freshman Gary Peters is the heavy favorite in this suburban Detroit district, even though he just defeated Republican incumbent Joe Knollenberg last November.  Like many suburban districts nationwide, this one has been trending Democratic for a while now.  Joe Knollenberg’s son state Rep. Marty Knollenberg may try to retak his father’s seat, but when an incumbent loses by 9%, his son is unlikely to do much better.

Rating: Likely Democrat

District 10: “The Thumb”, Northern Macomb County.  Republican Candice Miller is not likely to be challenged in 2010.  The former secretary of state may run for governor, however.  If she does, advantage still goes to the Republicans here.  Dem. John Espinoza may run for the open seat.  Republican Sen. Alan Sanborn is the likely favorite in an open seat.

Rating:  Safe Republican

District 11:  West Oakland County, North-East Wayne County.  Thad McCotter is in a very dangerous spot right now, and he knows it.  He only managed 51% in this once strongly Republican suburban district against a nobody in 2010.  He apparently senses the danger, and is willing to sell his soul to save his seat.

Democrats have a very strong bench in this district.  House speaker Andy Dillon lives here, and the DCCC will likely try to recruit him, as well as State Senator Glenn Anderson, who represents the Conservative city of Livonia.  Other candidates include State Reps. Marc Courriveau and Richard LeBlanc.  

McCotter used to be able to count on his base in Livonia to get re elected, but Livonia, like all of Wayne county, continues to trend Democratic. Novi, in Oakland County, was also a reliably Democratic part of the District.  But like the 11th District as a whole, Novi was won by Barack Obama.

Rating: Tossup

District 12: Parts of Oakland and Macomb Counties. Sander Levin is likely to run for re-election, but if he doesn’t look for his son, Andy Levin to run for his seat.  If not Levin, State Senator Gilda Jacobs may run.  Either way, the district is safe.

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 13:  Detroit.  The big question here is: Has the Kilpatrick scandal blown over?  If so, Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick will be safe.  If there are still lingering doubts about her suport for her son, then she may well see a another vigorous Primary Challenge.  Mary Waters will probably run again, but there are other Detroit area legislators that may want to take her on as well.  Barack Obama may have broken 90% in this majority Black District, so the winning the Democratic Primary will be tantamount to winning the General Election.

Rating: Safe Democrat.

District 14:  Detroit.  Nothing to see here.  John Conyers is safe.

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 15:  Detroit suburbs, Monroe County, Ann Arbor.  I fully expect John Dingell to retire in 2010.  He just lost his committee chairmanship, and on top of that, he can barely walk.  If he does, watch either his wife, Debbie Dingell, or his son, Christopher Dingell.  Also watch former Congresswoman Lynn Rivers, who lost the 2002 primary to Dingell after the two were drawn together by redistricting.  Rivers is quite liberal and would made a very good congresswoman, in my opinion.

Rating: Safe Democrat

Soon Rep. Rahm “Rahmbo” Emanuel will be leaving his congressional seat vacant in order to become Barack Obama’s chief of staff.  Emanuel represents Illinois 5th District, which includes northern portions of Chicago as well as some suburbs west of the city. John Kerry won this district 67-23 in 2004, and Barack Obama certainly did much better than that.  Of course, Emanuel’s resignation will set up a special election sometime in the near future.

The general election will be uncompetitive, so this is an excellent chance to get a very progressive Democrat elected to this district.  That Democrat could be Rep. Sara Feigenholtz.  Feigenholtz was elected to the Illinois State House in 1995, and since then she has built a reputation as one of the most liberal members in the entire body.  

Yesterday Feigenholtz announced she is forming a campaign committee to explore a run for the 5th District.  Part of the e-mail to her supporters reads:

As you know, Congressman Rahm Emanuel will be resigning from the U.S. House of Representatives to serve in the Obama administration.  I believe this creates an opportunity for another progressive thinker, such as myself, to lead the 5th District. . . To let our dreams of a better tomorrow end with the November 4th election would be an affront to those very principles Americans were hoping to reclaim this year. . . I am asking you to believe in my capacity to lead once again, and embark upon this journey with me.

Let’s face it, Emanuel is not as progressive as he could be, especially not from such a strongly Democratic District.  Feigenholtz, on the other hand, is 100% Pro-Choice, Supports Gay Marriage, and is a solid progressive on every other issue.  

To my knowledge, Feigenholtz is the only announced candidate, but Emanuel hasn’t even resigned yet, and there is likely to be more.  There is no date yet set for the Special Primary or Election.  But if we rally around Feigenholtz early, we can make sure that a solid progressive represents this district.

On the Issues:

http://votesmart.org/npat.php?…

House Site

http://www.staterepsara.com/

Act Blue Page

http://www.actblue.com/contrib…

The 2008 Election in Michigan was by far the best that we’ve had in years, maybe decades. We picked up two congressional seats, both of which were gerrymandered to favor Republicans.  Better yet, we won one of them by nearly 10 points.  Barack Obama won by a landslide here (16%) Compared to John Kerry, who only won by three points.  On the Statewide level, we passed two progressive ballot initiatives, threw out the conservative Chief Justice of the State Supreme Court, and made huge gains in the State House of Representatives.

Presidential

Barack Obama won the state of Michigan by a margin of 57%-41%, better than any Democrat has done in decades.  Also for the first time in years, the Democrat won a majority of the counties in the state.  

Congress

Democrat Gary Peters Defeated Incumbent Republican Joe Knollenberg by a margin of 52%-43% in the 9th District, located in Central Oakland County including the cities of Pontiac, Auburn Hills, Rochester, Troy, and West Bloomfield.  This is the first time in decades that a significant portion of Oakland County has been represented by a Democrat.  Peters is a former State Senator, the 2006 candidate for Attorney General, and the current lottery commissioner.  

In the 7th District, located in south central Michigan, State Senate minority leader Mark Schauer defeated CFG wingnut Tim Walberg by a margin of 46%-49%.  The district includes Calhoun county, home to Battle Creek, as well as Jackson County, home to the city of Jackson, which is imfamous for being the birthplace of the Republican Party.  Schauer is the popular state Senator who represents the largest counties, Calhoun and Jackson.  He was endorsed by the former moderate Congressman, Joe Schwartz, whom Walberg defeated in the 2006 Republican Primary.

Ballot Initiatives

Michigan voters passed a Medical Marijuana initiative by a very wide margin, 63%-37%.  But the initiative that drew the most money, and that was the prime target of the conservatives, was Prop. 2, which would use state money to fund stem-cell research.  Voters passed Prop. 2 by 53%-47%.

State House of Representatives

In August, I predicted that Democrats would pick up anywhere from 3-7 seats in the State House. Democrats picked up a total of 9 seats!  That is three more than we won in 2006. It is also the second cycle in a row that we did not lose a single seat, a 15 seat streak.  We now have a 67-43 advantage, only 6 seats away from a 2/3 majority.  It also means that we are almost certain to hold the State House in 2012, just in time for redistricting.  Here are the Democrats who picked up Republican held seats:

District 62-Calhoun County, Battle Creek, Albion.

Kate Segal (D)-62% Gregory Moore (R)-32%

District 101- Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, and Mason Counties.

Dan Scripps (D)-60% Ray Franz (R)40%

District 1- Wayne County, Northeast Detroit, Harper Woods, Grosse Pointe

Tim Bledsoe (D)-57% Mary Treder Lang (R)-43%

District 108- Delta, Menominee, and Dickinson Counties

Judy Nerat (D)-56% Mike Falcon (R)-44%

District 70- Montcalm County, part of Ionia County

Mike Huckleberry-(D) 54% Tom Ginster-(R) 46%

District 21- Wayne County, Canton

Dian Slavens (D)-52% Todd LaJoy-(R) 45%

District 39- Oakland County, West Bloomfield Township

Lisa Brown (D)-52% Amy Peterman-(R) 46%

District 32- Northeast Macomb County, Central St. Clair County

Jennifer Haase-(D) 50% John Accavitti-(R) 47%

District 24- Macomb County, St. Clair Shores

Sarah Roberts (D)-49% Bryan Brandenburg-47%

And the narrow losers:

District 61- Western Kalamazoo County, Portage

Julie Rogers (D)-49% Larry DeShazor (R)-51%

District 43- Oakland County, Waterford Township

Scott Hudson (D)-47% Gail Haines (R)-49%

District 78- Southern Berrien County, Western Cass County

Judy Truesdell (D)-52% Sharon Tyler (R)-52%

District 51- Southern Genesee County

Michael Thorp (D)-47% Paul Scott (R)-53%

Democrats held all competitve seats.  Here are the closest contests for Democrat held seats:

District 91- Muskegon County except Muskegon, Northeast Ottawa County

Mary Valentine (D)-54% Holly Hughes (R)-46%

District 106- Alcona, Alpena, Crawford, Montmorency, Oscoda, and Presque Isle Counties.

Andy Neumann (D)-53% Peter Pettalia (R)-44%

These two were actually the only remotely competitive Democrat races.  

Republicans targeted also targeted the following Democrats who took over Republican seats in 2006: Marc Courriveau won 59-41, Robert Dean won 58-40, Terry Brown won 65-35, Mike Simpson won 63-37, and Martin Griffin won 63-37.  Vicki Barnett also won a competitve open seat 60-40.

2010

Thad McCotter (R-11th District), the Congressman who reprents Suburban portions of Wayne and Oakland Counties, only won re-election 45-51.  State Senator Glenn Anderson represents almost all of the portion of the 11th District that lies in Wayne County. Anderson may decide to run against Mad Thad in 2010.  State Rep-elect Dian Slavens, who pulled an upset in her race this year, may also run.  Marc Courriveau also scored an upset in a strongly Republican district in 2006.  Courriveau would be the best candidate, in my opinion.  He’s young, from a Republican area, and has run for congress three times in the area.

The State Senate will also be up for re-election in 2010.  We have to take control of this body if we want to control the redistricting process, as we could well lose the governors office.  

Races to watch are The 7th District in suburban Wayne County, which will be open, The 34th which includes heavily Democratic Muskegon County and will also be open. The 20th will also be open in 2010. It is currently the most Democratic district held by a Republican in the entire state.  All three district were won by Barack Obama, and will be open in 2010.  We only need three districts to take control, since we currently hold 17 seats to the republicans 21.  These three districts will probably be the top targets of the State Democratic Party.

If I remember right, it’s been a few of months since we had a House Cattle call, although we have Senate ones monthly.  A lot has happened in those few months. I think our chances in several strongly Republican Districts have greatly improved, and we’ve put away some districts that were competitive a few months ago.  Most of the Pundits are predicting gains greater than 20 seats, with 30 or more seats likely.  McCain is losing ground by the day, and Republicans nation wide are hemorrhaging support thanks to the Economic crisis.  Democratic incumbents are in increasingly less danger, with only approximately 5 seats in serious risk. Needless to say, this one is looking like a wave election possibly better than 2006.  Go as far down as you want, as we have no shortage of targets.

We all know that Information about State Legislature races are hard to find.  They are also very important to redistricting control of congress in 2012.  

Here I have listed all or most of Michigan’s State House of Representatives competitives races, as well as the candidates, most recent fundraising figures, and the partisan turnout from last month’s primary election.

I have also roughly rated the districts a tossup and leans.  Democrats are heavily favored to control the House, and they will likely gain several seats.  Here is a map of the Districts http://www.vcsnet.com/State.ph…  But just remember that there are 110 districts, of which the Democrats control 57.  The lower the district number, the closer the district is to Detroit.  The higher the number, the farther north.

Republican Seats Leaning Democrat

108th- (Open, Tom Casperson,R)

Judy Nerat (D) vs. Mike Falcon (R)

CTD- $10,172 vs. $20,192  COH- $6,099 vs. $7,542

Turnout- 67% Democrat, 33% Republican

39th- (Open, David Law,R)

Lisa Brown (D) vs. Amy Peterman (R)

CTD- $39,776 vs. $69,061  COH- $25,207 vs. $8,945

Turnout- 57% Democrat, 43% Republican

Republican Seats Tossup

62nd-  (Open, Mike Nofs, R)

Kate Segal (D) vs. Gregory Moore (R)

CTD- $56,394 vs. $25,064 COH- $43,837 vs. $12,325

Turnout- 53% Democrat,  47% Republican

61st- (Open, Jack Hoogendyk, R)

Julie Rogers (D) vs. Larry DeShazor (R)

CTD- $54,170 vs. $27,890  COH- $33,755 vs. $2,145

Turnout- 75% Republican,  25% Democrat

1st- (Open, Ed Gaffney, R)

Tim Bledsoe (D) vs. Mary Treder Lang (R)

CTD- $13,850 vs. $66,877 COH- $-6,638 vs.$6,273  

Turnout- 58% Democrat,  42% Republican

101st- (Open, David Palsrok, R)

Dan Scripps (D) vs. Ray Franz (R)

CTD- $92,686 vs. $30,258  COH- $29,296 vs. $2,459

Turnout-  77% Republican,  23% Democrat

78th-  (Open, Neal Nitz, R)

Judy Truesdell (D) vs. Sharon Tyler (R)

CTD- $39,439 vs. $36,629  COH- $26,186 vs. $5,711

Turnout-  79% Republican,  21% Democrat

70th-  (Open, Judy Emmons, R)

Mike Huckleberry (D) vs. Thomas Ginster (R)

CTD- $16,920 vs. $11,840  COH- $-996 vs. $3,720

Turnout-  82% Republican,  18% Democrat

24th-  (Open, Jack Brandenburg, R)

Sarah Roberts (D) vs. Brian Brandenburg (R)

CTD- $44,586 vs. $47,921  COH- $11,644 vs. 31,835

Turnout-  62% Democrat,  38% Republican

32nd-  (Open, Daniel Acciavatti, R)

Jennifer Haase (D) vs. John Acciavatti (R)

CTD- $28,991 vs. $18,444  COH- $18,836 vs. $4,401

Turnout-  55% Republican,  45% Democrat

Republican Seats Leaning Republican

51st-  (Open, David Robertson, R)

Michael Thorp (D) vs. Paul Scott (R)

CTD- $13,415 vs. $137,549 COH- $1,799 vs. $22,225

Turnout-  60% Republican, 40% Democrat

98th-  (Open, John Moolenaar, R)

Garnet Lewis (D) vs. Jim Stamas (R)

CTD- $75,579 vs. $49,509 COH- $39,350 vs. $15,045

Turnout-  66% Republican, 34% Democrat

97th-  (Tim Moore, R)

Kathy Wilton (D) vs. Tim Moore (R)

CTD- $0.00 vs. $59,590  COH- $0.00 vs. $36,719

Turnout-  59% Democrat, 41% Republican

21st-  (Open, Phillip LaJoy, R)

Dian Slavens (D) vs. Todd LaJoy (R)

CTD- $50,477 vs. $67,270 COH- $26,725 vs. $47,248

Turnout-  51% Republican, 49% Democrat

73rd-  (Tom Pearce, R)

Bruce Hawley (D) vs. Tom Pearce (R)

CTD- $30,179 vs. $21,515  COH- $22,545 vs. $5,527

Turnout-  80% Republican, 20% Democrat

Democrat Seats Tossup

106th-  (Open, Matt Gillard, D)

Andy Neumann (D) vs. Peter Pettalia (R)

CTD- $27,595 vs. $27,444  COH- $10,671 vs. $3,749

Turnout-  60% Republican, 40% Democrat

65th- (Mike Simpson, D)

Mike Simpson (D) vs. Ray Snell (R)

CTD- $143,105 vs. $13,465 COH- $101,886 vs.$4,556

Turnout-  56% Republican, 44% Democrat

37th- (Open, Aldo Vagnozzi, D)

Vicki Barnett (D) vs. Paul Welday (R)

CTD- $45,608 vs. $60,883 COH- $32,118 vs. $34,506

Turnout-  50% Republican, 50% Democrat

Democrat Seats Leaning Democrat

23rd- (Open, Kathleen Law, D)

Deb Kennedy (D) vs. Neil DeBlois (R)

CTD- $19,859 vs. $14,845  COH- $7,077 vs. $4,787

Turnout-  66% Democrat,  34% Republican

20th- (Marc Courriveau, D)

Marc Courriveau (D) vs. Jerry Vorva (R)

CTD- $147,164 vs. $0.00  COH- $96,421 vs. $0.00

Turnout-  55% Republican,  45% Democrat

91st- (Mary Valentine, D)

Mary Valentine (D) vs. Holly Hughes (R)

CTD-$146,002 vs. $81,921 COH- $102,681 vs.$55,711

Turnout-  62% Democrat, 38% Republican

75th- (Robert Dean, D)

Robert Dean (D) vs. Dan Tietema (R)

CTD- $80,004 vs. $34,834  COH- $31,430 vs. $7,455

Turnout-  63% Republican, 37% Democrat

84th- (Terry Brown, D)

Terry Brown (D) vs. Anna Kabot (R)

CTD- $57,086 vs. $6,215  COH- $47,586 vs.

Turnout-  73% Republican, 27% Democrat