Following up my recent diary redistricting South Carolina, I have now moved on to another Southern State which apparently, like South Carolina, maybe gaining another Black Majority seat (?). However, unlike South Carolina, which is expected to gain a Congressional Seat, Louisiana will lose a seat. Republicans control the governorship in Louisiana, while Democrats control the Senate, and the House is sort of up in the air. I think that this map is fair to both parties, as it pairs to Republicans together, and (maybe) a Democrat and a Republican in a very Republican district, resulting in a likely 4-2 Republican delegation.
District 1- Steve Scalise (R) Loss of population due to Hurricane Katrina forces this district to expand dramatically. It now takes in most of its old territory, plus all of Livingston, Eastern Ascension, and Northern West Baton Rouge Parish. It still jumps Lake Ponchitrain and includes the Conservative New Orleans suburbs, including Scalise’s home in Jefferson Parish.
District 2- Joseph Cao (R) This is the district which expands most dramatically. It now takes in 100% of New Orleans, more of Jefferson, all of St. Charles, all of St. John the Baptiste, all of St. James, most of Asumption, most of LaFourche (including Thibadaux), and part of St. Tammany. This district is 49.5% Black and 41% White, so I guess it is considered a coalition district, although I assure you it would be very easy to bring that up a little. Obviously no one expects Joseph Cao to be in Congress by 2012, so this district will be safe for his Democratic Successor.
District 3- Bill Cassidy (R) Vs. Charlie Melancon successor If a Democrat wins Melancon’s open seat, then this would be his seat, plus the most Republican areas of Baton Rouge (Cassidy’s base) If it’s Democrat vs. Cassidy, Cassidy wins, but if a Republican wins Melancon’s seat, I think the R primary would be close, although Cassidy would have the seniority. This district does have sort of a winding branch type thing going into East Baton Rouge Parish, but all in all I don’t think that its too badly gerrymandered.
District 4- John Fleming (R) vs. Rodney Alexander (R) This district becomes a combination of the whitest parts of Rodney Alexander’s district, plus the Northern half or so of John Fleming’s district. I guess it’s anybodies guess other than mine who would win a primary between the two of them. Keep in mind that the Northern bart of the 4th Districts is where Paul Carmouche did best in the Special election, so a bloody primary could create an opening for a conservative Democrat like him.
District 5- Open (D) this is the new black-majority seat. It’s sort of a remake of Cleo Fields old district in that it goes up the LA-MS border, but this district is much more compact. It leaves a total of ten parishes intact, while Fields’ left at most 4. It has a solid base in Baton Rouge and areas North and West of it, but also takes in the border Counties and the most heavily African-American parts of Monroe and Alexandria. I drew this district with Don Cravins in mind (the State Senator who challneged Charles Boustany last year) by including almost all of St. Landry Parish, including his home in Opelousas, but I’m sure that there are plenty of African American state legislators who’d like to take a crack at this, or maybe even Fields himself. I admit I did go overboard on this district, as it stands at 57% black, 39.6% White. To please the Courts and to increase the black population in the 2nd district, some black areas could be relinquished or transfered to the 2nd.
District 6- Charles Boustany (R) loses almost all of St. Landry, but moves northward to pick up more population. Still heavily Cajun (or is it Acadian?) and even more Republican. Still contains most of LaFayette.
Questions, Comments, Corrections?
I’d be interested in knowing a bit more about the population breakdown in CD4, CD5 and CD7. But on the whole I think this looks pretty good.
Besides that why would you want to help out Don Cravins? I think his 63-37 loss to Boustany is very telling. Besides that he’s a product of nepotism and a corrupt Democratic machine which his father is the head of.
No reason to make the fifth so heavily black. If you were looking at drawing a good Map for Democrats at least.
also, New Orleans is the fastest growing city in the United States right now and will be at, by some estiamtes, at almost 95% of pre-Katrina rates by the time of the census. Don’t take in the Kener portion of Jefferson or any, any, of St. Tammany Parish.