This is it — our final open thread of the cycle. Happy Halloween, everybody!
P.S. – Have you submitted your entries in our predictions contest yet?
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
NC-Sen, NC-Gov: North Carolina Omnibus
Along the lines of our New Hampshire compendium of polls, there’s so much new North Carolina material out today that we’re just going to give it to you in condensed form. What are the takeaways? The governor’s race is still too close to call but may be shading toward Perdue, while on the Senate side, it’s time for the Republicans to start practicing saying “Senator Godless.”
Research 2000 for Daily Kos:
Hagan 50 (49), Dole 45 (45)
Perdue 49 (48), McCrory 44 (43)CNN:
Hagan 53, Dole 44Elon:
Hagan 44 (37), Dole 37 (35)
Perdue 40 (33), McCrory 40 (37)Civitas (R):
Hagan 45 (44), Dole 43 (41)
Perdue 45 (43), McCrory 43 (43)
PA-12: NRCC Makes Major Buy Against Murtha
The NRCC has just filed a $465,000 TV buy against Democratic Rep. John Murtha.
That ain’t chump change. Could we really see an upset here on Tuesday?
UPDATE: SSP is changing our rating of this race from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic.
LATER UPDATE: The DCCC has responded with a $450K blast of their own.
My Finalized Predictions!
Alright! So I’ll start out with a key to make sure we’re all on the same page. Here’s an example:
1. New York-13*** (D+1) – – – R2B (X)
Mike McMahon v. Robert Straniere
Total Raised — $1,156,000 v. $123,000
Cash On Hand — $285,000 v. $11,000
CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Pickup)
First, I have the district. In this case it is New York’s 13th distict. When I talk about “Total Raised” I include self-funding and transfers from state parties/etc. The numbers I am using are all Pre-General numbers fundraising numbers that just add the first two weeks of October to the big 3Q fundraising rundown SSP did. Obviously I point out CQ Politics and Cook’s ratings of every race, then I tag my personal rating to the race. I also divide my rankings with a long line of dashes, to signify a change in rankings. I appropriately always put the Democrat on the left, and the Republican on the right!
*** = Retired Incumbent
(X) = I expect this race to flip from the holding party
(-) = I expect the current holding party to retain this seat
If you have any questions regarding my ratings, please feel free to ask! My ratings move from Senate Republicans, to House Republicans, and then House Democrats.
What I would deem “Upset Picks” in the house are Glenn Nye in VA-02, Michael Montagano in IN-03, and Bob Lord in AZ-03.
Senate Republicans
1. Virginia*** (X)
Former Governor Mark Warner v. Former Governor Jim Gilmore
Total Raised — $12,891,000 v. $2,026,000
Cash On Hand — $3,642,000 v. $85,000
CQ Politics – “Safe Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Safe Democratic Pick-up)
2. New Mexico*** (X)
Representative Tom Udall v. Representative Steven Pearce
Total Raised — $6,683,000 v. $4,082,000
Cash On Hand — $935,000 v. $397,000
CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
(Safe Democratic Pick-up)
3. Colorado*** (X)
Representative Mark Udall v. Former Representative Bob Schaffer
Total Raised — $10,791,000 v. $6,981,000
Cash On Hand —– $470,000 v. $1,518,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
(Safe Democratic Pick-up)
———————————————————————
4. New Hampshire (X)
Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen v. Incumbent Senator John Sununu
Total Raised — $7,119,000 v. $8,394,000
Cash On Hand – $1,763,000 v. $2,425,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Likely Democratic Pick-up)
5. Alaska (X)
Mayor Mark Begich v. Incumbent Senator Ted Stevens
Total Raised — $3,519,000 v. $4,501,000
Cash On Hand — $629,000 v. $833,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Pickup)
———————————————————————
6. Oregon (X)
State Speaker Jeff Merkley v. Incumbent Senator Gordon Smith
Total Raised — $5,606,000 v. $8,302,000
Cash On Hand – $1,139,000 v. $815,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
7. North Carolina (X)
State Senator Kay Hagan v. Incumbent Senator Liddy Dole
Total Raised — $6,244,000 v. $15,546,000
Cash On Hand — $503,000 v. $2,803,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
———————————————————————
8. Minnesota (X)
Al Franken v. Incumbent Senator Norm Coleman
Total Raised — $17,005,000 v. $17,907,000
Cash On Hand —- $182,000 v. $3,996,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
9. Kentucky (-)
Bruce Lunsford v. Incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell
Total Raised — $7,700,000 v. $14,065,000
Cash On Hand — $165,000 v. $3,723,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
(Toss Up)
10. Georgia (RO -)
Jim Martin v. Saxby Chambliss
Total Raised — $3,030,000 v. $7,662,000
Cash On Hand —- $585,000 v. $836,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
11. Mississippi-B*** (-)
Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove v. Representative Roger Wicker
Total Raised — $2,204,000 v. $5,479,000
Cash On Hand — $337,000 v. $683,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
———————————————————————
12. Maine (-)
Representative Tom Allen v. Incumbent Senator Susan Collins
Total Raised — $5,746,000 v. $7,281,000
Cash On Hand — $987,000 v. $2,101,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
(Likely Republican Retention)
House Republicans
1. New York-13*** (D+1) (X)
Mike McMahon v. Robert Straniere
Total Raised — $1,156,000 v. $123,000
Cash On Hand — $285,000 v. $11,000
CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Pickup)
2. New York-25*** (D+3) (X)
Dan Maffei v. Dale Sweetland
Total Raised — $2,016,000 v. $365,000
Cash On Hand — $351,000 v. $116,000
CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Pickup)
3. Virginia-11*** (R+1) (X)
Gerry Connolly v. Keith Fimian
Total Raised — $1,782,000 v. $1,762,000
Cash On Hand — $461,000 v. $655,000
CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Pickup)
4. Arizona-01*** (R+2) (X)
Ann Kirkpatrick v. Sydney Hay
Total Raised — $1,730,000 v. $433,000
Cash On Hand — $186,000 v. $91,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Pickup)
5. Alaska-AL (R+14) (X)
Ethan Berkowitz v. Representative Don Young
Total Raised — $1,369,000 v. $1,278,000
Cash On Hand —- $71,000 v. $158,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Likely Democratic Pickup)
6. Illinois-11*** (R+1) (X)
Debbie Halvorson v. Martin Ozinga
Total Raised — $2,053,000 v. $1,624,000
Cash On Hand — $237,000 v. $207,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Pickup)
7. Ohio-16*** (R+4) (X)
John Boccieri v. Kirk Schuring
Total Raised — $1,578,000 v. $1,162,000
Cash On Hand — $281,000 v. $84,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Pickup)
8. Florida-24 (R+3) (X)
Suzanne Kosmas v. Representative Tom Feeney
Total Raised — $1,712,000 v. $1,990,000
Cash On Hand — $147,000 v. $711,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Pickup)
9. North Carolina-08 (R+3) (X)
Larry Kissell v. Representative Robert Hayes
Total Raised — $1,106,000 v. $3,295,000
Cash On Hand —- $58,000 v. $752,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Likely Democratic Pickup)
10. New Jersey-03*** (D+3) (X)
John Adler v. Chris Myers
Total Raised — $2,610,000 v. $1,145,000
Cash On Hand — $834,000 v. $217,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Likely Democratic Pickup)
11. New Mexico-01*** (D+2) (X)
Martin Heinrich v. Darren White
Total Raised — $2,120,000 v. $1,630,000
Cash On Hand — $167,000 v. $515,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Pickup)
———————————————————————
12. Minnesota-03*** (R+1) (X)
Ashwin Madia v. Erik Paulsen
Total Raised — $2,303,000 v. $2,426,000
Cash On Hand — $598,000 v. $717,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
13. Ohio-15*** (R+1) (X)
Mary Jo Kilroy v. Steve Stivers
Total Raised — $2,274,000 v. $1,988,000
Cash On Hand — $448,000 v. $417,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
14. Michigan-07 (R+2) (X)
Mark Schauer v. Representative Tim Walberg
Total Raised — $2,017,000 v. $1,699,000
Cash On Hand — $735,000 v. $412,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
15. Colorado-04 (R+9) (X)
Betsy Markey v. Representative Marilyn Musgrave
Total Raised — $2,182,000 v. $2,493,000
Cash On Hand — $225,000 v. $325,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
16. Nevada-03 (D+1) (X)
Dina Titus v. Representative Jon Porter
Total Raised — $1,445,000 v. $2,658,000
Cash On Hand —- $64,000 v. $134,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
17. Michigan-09 (R+0) (X)
Gary Peters v. Representative Joe Knollenberg
Total Raised — $2,220,000 v. $3,295,000
Cash On Hand — $116,000 v. $1,624,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
18. Florida-08 (R+3) (X)
Alan Grayson v. Representative Richard Keller
Total Raised — $2,549,000 v. $1,483,000
Cash On Hand — $425,000 v. $706,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
19. New Jersey-07*** (R+1) (X)
Linda Stender v. Leonard Lance
Total Raised — $2,408,000 v. $1,216,000
Cash On Hand — $304,000 v. $275,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
20. New Mexico-02*** (R+6) (X)
Harry Teague v. Ed Tinsley
Total Raised — $3,223,000 v. $2,229,000
Cash On Hand — $401,000 v. $436,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
21. Louisiana-04*** (R+7) R2B (X)
Paul Carmouche v. John Fleming
Total Raised — $849,000 v. $1,007,000
Cash On Hand — $59,000 v. $16,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
22. New York-29 (R+5) (X)
Eric Massa v. Representative Randy Kuhl
Total Raised — $1,796,000 v. $1,359,000
Cash On Hand — $234,000 v. $209,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
23. Minnesota-06 (R+5) (X)
Elwyn Tinklenberg v. Representative Michele Bachmann
Total Raised — $2,411,000 v. $2,509,000
Cash On Hand – $1,591,000 v. $1,171,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
24. Pennsylvania-03 (R+2) (X)
Kathleen Dahlkemper v. Representative Phil English
Total Raised — $906,000 v. $2,261,000
Cash On Hand – $161,000 v. $286,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Pickup)
———————————————————————
25. Ohio-01 (R+1) (X)
Steve Driehaus v. Representative Steve Chabot
Total Raised — $1,256,000 v. $2,125,000
Cash On Hand — $216,000 v. $481,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
26. Idaho-01 (R+19) (X)
Walt Minnick v. Representative Bill Sali
Total Raised — $2,299,000 v. $1,019,000
Cash On Hand — $226,000 v. $167,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
27. Connecticut-04 (D+5) (X)
Jim Himes v. Representative Chris Shays
Total Raised — $3,226,000 v. $3,329,000
Cash On Hand — $282,000 v. $1,180,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
28. Florida-21 (R+6) (X)
Raul Martinez v. Representative Lincoln Diaz Balart
Total Raised — $1,767,000 v. $2,069,000
Cash On Hand — $693,000 v. $1,315,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
29. Alabama-02*** (R+13) (X)
Bobby Bright v. Jay Love
Total Raised — $893,000 v. $2,032,000
Cash On Hand — $43,000 v. $78,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
30. Florida-25 (R+4) (X)
Joe Garcia v. Representative Mario Diaz-Balart
Total Raised — $1,481,000 v. $1,634,000
Cash On Hand — $235,000 v. $810,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
31. Illinois-10 (D+4) (X)
Dan Seals v. Representative Mark Kirk
Total Raised — $3,022,000 v. $4,853,000
Cash On Hand — $269,000 v. $885,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
32. Washington-08 (D+2) (X)
Darcy Burner v. Representative Dave Reichert
Total Raised — $3,505,000 v. $2,403,000
Cash On Hand — $194,000 v. $585,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
33. Arizona-03 (R+6) (X)
Bob Lord v. Representative John Shadegg
Total Raised — $1,510,000 v. $2,231,000
Cash On Hand —- $94,000 v. $529,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
(Toss Up)
34. Maryland-01*** (R+10) (-)
Frank Kratovil v. Andrew Harris
Total Raised — $1,542,000 v. $2,743,000
Cash On Hand — $174,000 v. $586,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
35. Kentucky-02*** (R+13) (-)
David Boswell v. Brett Guthrie
Total Raised — $675,000 v. $1,102,000
Cash On Hand – $138,000 v. $424,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
36. Missouri-09*** (R+7) (-)
Judy Baker v. Blaine Luetkemeyer
Total Raised — $1,253,000 v. $1,440,000
Cash On Hand — $100,000 v. $28,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
37. California-04*** (R+11) (X)
Charlie Brown v. Thomas McClintock
Total Raised — $2,010,000 v. $2,791,000
Cash On Hand — $225,000 v. $66,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
38. Virginia-02 (R+6) (X)
Glenn Nye v. Representative Thelma Drake
Total Raised — $1,004,000 v. $1,890,000
Cash On Hand — $269,000 v. $508,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
39. Nebraska-02 (R+9) (-)
James Esch v. Representative Lee Terry
Total Raised — $686,000 v. $1,447,000
Cash On Hand – $111,000 v. $330,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
———————————————————————
40. Indiana-03 (R+16) (X)
Michael Montagano v. Representative Mike Souder
Total Raised — $681,000 v. $863,000
Cash On Hand —- $3,000 v. $251,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
(Lean Republican Retention)
41. Ohio-02 (R+13) (-)
Victoria Wulsin v. Representative Jean Schmidt
Total Raised — $1,637,000 v. $1,125,000
Cash On Hand — $180,000 v. $158,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
(Lean Republican Retention)
42. Texas-10 (R+13) (-)
Larry Doherty v. Representative Mike McCaul
Total Raised — $1,048,000 v. $1,373,000
Cash On Hand —- $56,000 v. $300,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
(Lean Republican Retention)
43. Missouri-06 (R+5) (-)
Kay Barnes v. Representative Sam Graves
Total Raised — $2,594,000 v. $2,371,000
Cash On Hand —- $32,000 v. $222,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
(Lean Republican Retention)
44. New York-26*** (R+3) (-)
Alice Kryzan v. Chris Lee
Total Raised — $713,000 v. $1,522,000
Cash On Hand — $89,000 v. $126,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Republican Retention)
45. Texas-07 (R+16) (-)
Michael Skelly v. Representative John Culberson
Total Raised — $2,804,000 v. $1,536,000
Cash On Hand — $610,000 v. $219,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
(Lean Republican Retention)
46. Wyoming-AL*** (R+19) (-)
Gary Trauner v. Cynthia Lummis
Total Raised — $1,460,000 v. $1,084,000
Cash On Hand — $440,000 v. $124,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
(Lean Republican Retention)
47. Virginia-05 (R+6) (-)
Tom Perriello v. Representative Virgil Goode
Total Raised — $1,502,000 v. $1,488,000
Cash On Hand — $101,000 v. $697,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
(Likely Republican Retention)
48. Nevada-02 (R+8) (-)
Jill Derby v. Representative Dean Heller
Total Raised — $913,000 v. $1,538,000
Cash On Hand – $155,000 v. $309,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
(Lean Republican Retention)
49. West Virginia-02 (R+5) (-)
Anne Barth v. Representative Shelly Capito Moore
Total Raised — $1,099,000 v. $1,985,000
Cash On Hand — $227,000 v. $391,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”
(Likely Republican Retention)
———————————————————————
50. Florida-13 (R+4) (-)
Christine Jennings v. Representative Vernon Buchanan
Total Raised — $1,729,000 v. $4,200,000
Cash On Hand — $218,000 v. $334,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
(Likely Republican Retention)
51. Pennsylvania-15 (D+2) (-)
Siobhan Bennett v. Representative Charlie Dent
Total Raised — $870,000 v. $1,771,000
Cash On Hand — $67,000 v. $489,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
(Likely Republican Retention)
52. Ohio-07*** (R+6) (-)
Sharen Neuhardt v. Steve Austria
Total Raised — $656,000 v. $1,116,000
Cash On Hand — $83,000 v. $271,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
(Likely Republican Retention)
53. Alabama-03 (R+4) (-)
Josh Segall v. Representative Mike Rogers
Total Raised — $870,000 v. $1,306,000
Cash On Hand — $48,000 v. $431,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
(Likely Republican Retention)
54. Virginia-10 (R+5) (-)
Judy Feder v. Representative Frank Wolf
Total Raised — $1,933,000 v. $1,886,000
Cash On Hand — $362,000 v. $993,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
(Likely Republican Retention)
55. New Jersey-05 (R+4) (-)
Dennis Shulman v. Representative Scott Garrett
Total Raised — $994,000 v. $1,348,000
Cash On Hand – $127,000 v. $411,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
(Likely Republican Retention)
56. California-46 (R+6) (-)
Debbie Cook v. Representative Dana Rohrabacher
Total Raised — $332,000 v. $560,000
Cash On Hand — $14,000 v. $423,000
CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
(Likely Republican Retention)
House Democrats
1. Florida-16 (R+2) (X)
Representative Tim Mahoney v. Tom Rooney
Total Raised — $3,128,000 v. $1,274,000
Cash On Hand — $304,000 v. $253,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”
(Likely Republican Pickup)
———————————————————————
2. Pennsylvania-11 (D+5) (X)
Representative Paul Kanjorski v. Lou Barletta
Total Raised — $2,274,000 v. $1,068,000
Cash On Hand — $990,000 v. $103,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
3. Texas-22 (R+15) (X)
Representative Nick Lampson v. Pete Olson
Total Raised — $2,037,000 v. $2,033,000
Cash On Hand — $897,000 v. $278,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Toss Up)
———————————————————————
4. Kansas-02 (R+7) (-)
Representative Nancy Boyda v. Lynn Jenkins
Total Raised — $1,599,000 v. $1,563,000
Cash On Hand — $336,000 v. $362,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
(Lean Democratic Retention)
5. New Hampshire-01 (R+0) (-)
Representative Carol Shea-Porter v. Jeb Bradley
Total Raised — $1,326,000 v. $1,102,000
Cash On Hand — $172,000 v. $190,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Retention)
6. Louisiana-06 (R+7) (-)
Don Cazayoux v. Bill Cassidy
Total Raised — $2,514,000 v. $932,000
Cash On Hand — $153,000 v. $312,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Retention)
7. Alabama-05*** (R+6) (-)
Parker Griffith v. Wayne Parker
Total Raised — $1,294,000 v. $1,081,000
Cash On Hand —- $65,000 v. $147,000
CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”
(Lean Democratic Retention)
8. Wisconsin-08 (R+4) (-)
Representative Steve Kagen v. John Gard
Total Raised — $1,888,000 v. $1,420,000
Cash On Hand — $193,000 v. $487,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
(Lean Democratic Retention)
9. Pennsylvania-10 (R+8) (-)
Representative Chris Carney v. Chris Hackett
Total Raised — $2,191,000 v. $2,407,000
Cash On Hand — $313,000 v. $281,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
(Lean Democratic Retention)
10. Kentucky-03 (D+2) (-)
Representative John Yarmuth v. Anne Northup
Total Raised — $2,064,000 v. $1,617,000
Cash On Hand — $435,000 v. $469,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Lean Democratic Retention)
———————————————————————
11. Georgia-08 (R+8) (-)
Representative Jim Marshall v. Richard Goddard
Total Raised — $1,598,000 v. $1,108,000
Cash On Hand — $835,000 v. $278,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Retention)
12. Oregon-05*** (D+1) (-)
Kurt Shrader v. Michael Erickson
Total Raised — $1,156,000 v. $2,330,000
Cash On Hand — $126,000 v. $22,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Retention)
13. Pennsylvania-04 (R+3) (-)
Representative Jason Altmire v. Melissa Hart
Total Raised — $2,756,000 v. $1,266,000
Cash On Hand — $596,000 v. $656,000
CQ Politics – “Likely Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Retention)
14. Mississippi-01 (R+10) (-)
Travis Childers v. Greg Davis
Total Raised — $1,724,000 v. $1,510,000
Cash On Hand — $107,000 v. $173,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Retention)
15. Arizona-08 (R+1) (-)
Representative Gabrielle Giffords v. Tim Bee
Total Raised — $3,167,000 v. $1,748,000
Cash On Hand — $949,000 v. $170,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Retention)
16. New York-20 (R+3) (-)
Representative Kirsten Gillibrand v. Alexander Treadwell
Total Raised — $4,571,000 v. $6,905,000
Cash On Hand — $886,000 v. $1,326,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Retention)
17. California-11 (R+3) (-)
Representative Jerry McNerney v. Dean Andal
Total Raised — $2,886,000 v. $1,289,000
Cash On Hand — $792,000 v. $271,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Retention)
18. Arizona-05 (R+4) (-)
Representative Harry Mitchell v. David Schweikert
Total Raised — $2,216,000 v. $1,287,000
Cash On Hand — $223,000 v. $116,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Retention)
19. Texas-23 (R+4) (-)
Representative Ciro Rodriguez v. Lyle Larson
Total Raised — $1,723,000 v. $734,000
Cash On Hand — $619,000 v. $99,000
CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Retention)
20. Illinois-14 (R+5) (-)
Representative Bill Foster v. Jim Oberweis
Total Raised — $4,792,000 v. $4,998,000
Cash On Hand — $275,000 v. $212,000
CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Retention)
21. Indiana-09 (R+7) (-)
Representative Baron Hill v. Mike Sodrel
Total Raised — $2,095,000 v. $895,000
Cash On Hand — $480,000 v. $120,000
CQ Politics – “Likely Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Retention)
22. Minnesota-01 (R+1) (-)
Representative Tim Walz v. Brian Davis
Total Raised — $2,677,000 v. $1,008,000
Cash On Hand — $730,000 v. $266,000
CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”
(Likely Democratic Retention)
Current Breakdown
1 Republican President
28D-22R Governors
51D-49R Senators
236D-199R Representatives
Projected Outcome
1 Democratic President
29D-21R Governors
59D-41R Senate
269D-166R Representatives
Loading ...AK-Sen, AK-AL: End of the Line
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/28-30, likely voters, 10/14-16):
Mark Begich (D): 58 (48)
Ted Stevens (R-inc): 36 (46)
(MoE: ±4%)
Ethan Berkowitz (D): 53 (50)
Don Young (R-inc): 44 (44)
(MoE: ±4%)
Ted Stevens and Don Young have a combined 75 years of congressional seniority, but it looks like Alaskans are poised to blow that up and start over. Most notably, Stevens’ conviction accounted for a 20-point swing since the previous poll two weeks ago. But some of the spirit of cleaning-house seems to have even transferred over to Berkowitz, whose numbers jumped a little as well.
McCain still has a big advantage at the presidential level, 58-39, but this poll also sees Sarah Palin’s favorables dropping back to somewhat earthbound levels (65-35) after two months of constant airing of her dirty laundry.
GA-Sen: Runoff Seems Likely
Rasmussen (10/30, likely voters, 10/22 in parens):
Jim Martin (D): 43 (45)
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 48 (47)
Allen Buckley (L): 7 (1)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
That’s a big surge for Buckley, who perhaps got a boost from his recent debate performances — or perhaps this is mostly just noise.
Research 2000 (for the Great Orange Satan) has a different picture (10/28-30, likely voters, 10/14-15 in parens):
Jim Martin (D): 46 (45)
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 47 (47)
Allen Buckley (L): 5 (5)
(MoE: ±4%)
Among those who have already voted (12% of the sample), Martin leads by 56-39. The good news for Martin is that he’s running ahead of Obama in the early vote — albeit just slightly (Obama leads McCain 55-40 among these voters, and trails McCain 47-44 overall). For Martin to have a shot at coming ahead of Chambliss on November 4th (or even taking 50% plus one), he’d need to run ahead of Obama here — and earlier polls from SurveyUSA were suggesting the opposite in the early vote.
A small chance exists that Martin could come out on top without a runoff on Tuesday, but I wouldn’t place my money on it.
UPDATE: A new CNN/Time poll has Chambliss leading Martin by 53-44 among likely voters (his best margin in quite some time), but only by 48-47 among registered voters. The problem with this poll? It didn’t include Buckley.
NH-Sen, NH-Gov: New Hampshire Omnibus
Every pollster you can think of, and every pollster’s dog as well, just released New Hampshire numbers. There aren’t any particular surprises (there’s major improvement in Strategic Vision and Suffolk, but that just brings them in line with everyone else), so I’m just going to throw them all out there in a somewhat more space-saving format:
Rasmussen: Shaheen 52 (52), Sununu 44 (46)
SurveyUSA: Shaheen 53 (48), Sununu 40 (40)
Lynch 65 (67), Kenney 28 (24)Strategic Vision (R): Shaheen 48 (47), Sununu 41 (45)
Lynch 67 (68), Kenney 24 (23)Suffolk: Shaheen 48 (41), Sununu 39 (40)
Lynch 67 (61), Kenney 15 (16)Research 2000 for Concord Monitor:
Shaheen 52 (50), Sununu 42 (43)
Lynch 64 (60), Kenney 32 (34)
Shea-Porter 49 (48), Bradley 42 (43)
Hodes 55 (49), Horn 38 (35)
Also, as always, UNH has its daily tracker, which covers all these races plus the presidential and the two congressional races, if you’re a big fan of tiny sample sizes.
Poll closing times
poll closing times lists the times backwards…polls close later in the west, right?
CT-04: Cheesecake Blogging
Finally, some cheesecake photos at SSP. No, not those kind of cheesecake photos. I’m talking the real thing:
Those of you who’ve read The Thumpin’ know that Rahm Emanuel loves to send cheesecakes as inspiration to campaigns. (More on that here.) This particular cake was sent to the Himes campaign, and below, you can see delighted staffers with the confection – presumably moments before they devoured it:
Maybe I need to start personalizing the babkas I’ve been sending!
OR-Sen: Merkley on Brink of Defeating Smith
Public Policy Polling (10/28-30, likely voters):
Jeff Merkley (D): 51
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 43
Dave Brownlow (C): 4
(MoE: ±2.6%)
Those are beautiful numbers, but these are even better: 59% of likely voters have filled in their ballots so far, and of that group, Merkley is ahead by 59-37. My crude back-of-the-cocktail napkin analysis says that Smith would have to take roughly two-thirds of the outstanding vote in order to pull off a win here. And while Smith leads among likely voters who have yet to complete their ballots (by 51-39 over Merkley), that’s not enough to erase the strong early edge that Merkley has built up.
Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 56-42.
UPDATE by Crisitunity:
Rasmussen (10/30, likely voters, 10/14 in parentheses):
Jeff Merkley (D): 49 (47)
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 46 (47)
Some other: 4 (n/a)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Rasmussen polls Oregon too, and the results are good, with Merkley up by 3. Now 3 might not seem that confidence-inspiring compared with other pollsters’ numbers in this race, but bear in mind that a) this is the first time Merkley has sported a lead in a Rasmussen poll, and b) Rasmussen keeps on not including Dave Brownlow of the Constitution Party, who is bleeding off votes on Smith’s right flank (although this time they do report that 4% plan to vote for ‘some other’ candidate).