The results for Alaska’s at-large primary are due tonight, and will be announced sometime after 5pm Alaska Time. Stay tuned! (Hat-tip: WestCoastMC)
UPDATE (David): Young’s lead has now shrunk to 129 votes. “Absentee and questioned ballots from about a dozen House districts remain to be counted tonight, according to division director Gail Fenumiai.”
Georgia Republican Rep. Lynn Westmoreland is standing by his statement that Barack Obama is “uppity,” claiming that he has never heard of the term being used in a “racially derogatory sense.”
“It is important to note that the dictionary definition of ‘uppity’ is ‘affecting an air of inflated self-esteem – snobbish,'” Westmoreland said in a statement. “That’s what we meant by uppity when we used it in the mill village where I grew up.”
“I’ve never heard that term used in a racially derogatory sense,” the Georgia Republican added.
The only way you could fail to instantly recognize “uppity” as racist is if racism is all you’ve ever known.
The latest Bayou Buzz:
According to the Secretary of State’s office, the Governor plans to set the election dates, at their request, for the Democratic and Republican Primaries, as well as the general, as follows: the 1st District race (Oct. 4th primary; November 4th general), the 2nd District race (Oct. 4th primary; Nov. 4th runoff; Dec. 6th or Nov. 4th general), the 4th District race (Oct. 4th primary; Dec. 6th or Nov. 4th general), and the 5th District race (Oct. 4th primary; Nov. 4th general).
So, in most cases, Louisiana’s congressional races will be decided on November 4th, with two big exceptions: LA-02 and LA-04, where it’s looking very likely that runoffs will need to be held on November 4th. The Buzz offers its take on that timeline’s impact on the Democratic primary to topple crumb-bum Rep. Bill Jefferson.
As for the 4th District race, where Caddo Parish DA Paul Carmouche is offering Democrats a strong shot at picking up the open seat of retiring GOP Rep. Jim McCrery, this move could end up working in Carmouche’s favor. Democrats have had a pretty good record of success in recent Louisiana runoffs (e.g. Mary Landrieu in 2002, Kathleen Blanco in 2003, and Charlie Melancon in 2004), and if Dems are successful at the presidential and congressional levels in November, the GOP base could end up being rather deflated a month later. Furthermore, you could expect the DCCC to bring its full resources to bear here, while it’s a good bet that the Republican candidate will be tapped out after a hard-fought three-way primary and runoff.
First, some numbers to chew on from 2006:
Jill Derby (D): 104,593
Dean Heller (R): 117,168Tessa Hafen (D): 98,261
Jon Porter (R): 102,232
Now, some more numbers to chew on. Let’s compare the voter registration numbers from Nevada in November 2006 and August 2008. In the chart below, let’s tally the Democratic and Republican registration advantages in all three of Nevada’s congressional districts from both time periods, with blue indicating a Democratic registration advantage and red indicating a GOP advantage. Here’s what we get:
| District | Nov. 2006 | Aug. 2008 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| NV-01 | 40,671 | 65,679 | 25,008 |
| NV-02 | 47,718 | 29,405 | 18,313 |
| NV-03 | 2,882 | 25,445 | 22,563 |
| Total | 4,165 | 61,719 | 65,884 |
Statewide, Democrats have turned a voter registration deficit of 4,000 into an advantage of 62,000 in less than two years. The biggest shift is in Clark County, where Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley’s 1st District is getting even bluer, and where the ground is shifting rapidly under GOP Rep. Jon Porter’s feet in the 3rd District. Porter is going to have his work cut out for him against Democrat Dina Titus this fall.
It’s also not hard to see why Jill Derby was tempted to make another run in the 2nd District: the reduction of the GOP’s voter registration advantage is bigger than her losing margin in 2006. However, with the increased turnout of a presidential year, she’s going to have a heck of a challenge persuading the big chunk of independent voters that she’ll need to close the gap.
Overall, these are very encouraging signs for Democrats up and down the ballot this fall.
Crossposted from Minnesota Progress
Iraq War Vet and Second District Democratic Nominee Steve Sarvi is up with the first ad of the MN-02 race. It’s a solid ad, I’m not quite as impressed with it as I am with Ashwin Madia’s ads but it’s a good ad that defines Sarvi in the terms that Sarvi wants before Kline has a chance to define him. He also defines Kline before Kline can which is important since despite being the incumbent, Kline is not well known.
It’s essentially the same strategy that Tim Walz used in 2006. If you want to him run this ad you can donate here.
And if your wondering why you should help Sarvi win I wrote about John Kline’s out of touch record awhile ago. Learn about the Kline Record and donate to Steve Sarvi.
Ivan Moore Research polls the Alaska races (8/30-9/2, likely voters, 8/9-12 in parens):
Mark Begich (D): 49 (56)
Ted Stevens (R-inc): 46 (39)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
I believe we could call this the “Tom Reynolds effect” of political scandals: Stevens’ numbers took a nosedive immediately after his indictment, but now that the shock is wearing off (and after his primary win), the numbers have readjusted back to a tight race. The good news is, Mark Begich is running a brilliant campaign, and is doing everything right. Let’s just hope that Stevens isn’t acquitted before election day.
And now for the House race:
Ethan Berkowitz (D): 54 (51)
Don Young (R-inc): 37 (41)Ethan Berkowitz (D): 38 (42)
Sean Parnell (R): 49 (46)
The numbers tell you everything you need to know about this race: we better hope that Young survives his primary. The crumb-bum currently leads by 151 votes, but guess what? There are over 25,000 uncounted absentee and provisional ballots still outstanding. This primary isn’t nearly over by any stretch of the imagination — and the electoral fate of Ethan Berkowitz could rest in the balance.
Bonus finding: With Palin on the ticket, Alaska is no longer in play, according to the poll. McCain crushes Obama by a 54-35 margin, up from 47-44 in July.
Howey-Gauge (8/30-31, likely voters, 4/23-24 in parens):
Jill Long Thompson (D): 35 (36)
Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 53 (55)
(MoE: ±4.1%)
This is the fourth consecutive poll since June showing Daniels with a big lead. A couple of years ago, My Man Mitch seemed like a juicy target to be taken down by an aggressive populist Democratic campaign. However, Daniels has turned around his once-sagging job approval ratings and has put some serious daylight between himself and JLT.
While we don’t base our ratings system entirely on polls, you can’t outrun the trend lines. SSP is shifting its rating of this race from “Lean Republican” to Likely Republican.
On the bright side, this latest Howey-Gauge poll shows McCain leading Obama only by a 45-43 margin. Can McCain afford to continue to write this state off as a guaranteed GOP win?
(H/T: Blue Indiana)
Earlier in the week, we wrote about a recent SurveyUSA poll of Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District that showed Republican Jay Love leading Democrat Bobby Bright by an unexpectedly wide margin: 56%-39%.
We wrote at the time that the poll, commissioned by Roll Call, didn’t really pass the sniff test. Despite the 2nd District having an African-American population that makes up between 29 and 30% of the district, SurveyUSA pegged the black vote at only 16% of their voter screen. Other pollsters, including the reputable Democratic firm Anzalone-Liszt, peg the African-American vote at 10 points higher — and consider that a conservative estimate given the historic nature of this year.
It now turns out that Roll Call itself was dissatisfied with SUSA’s work:
The poll, according to SurveyUSA CEO Jay Leve, calculated black turnout at 16 percent. According to exit polling from the 2004 general election, black turnout in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District was 24 percent. Leve said black turnout was calculated at 16 percent because “that’s what we got when we conducted the survey.”
After the poll results were released by Roll Call on Tuesday, Roll Call asked SurveyUSA pollster Jay Leve to “re-weight” the results based on greater black turnout.
According to Leve, Love’s lead shrinks to 50-44 if black turnout equals 2004 levels. It shrinks even more to 49-46 – within the 4 percent margin of error – if black turnout increases to 27 percent.
“I do not consider the Democrat concerns anything other than fairly voiced,” Leve said. “It’s important to understand that there is no way to know which number is closest to the truth, because the truth is hard to know. It is safe to say that depending on what the black turnout is, the Republican will either win by quite a bit, or the race may be very close.”
“Democrat concerns”. Heh, nice one.
As I said on Tuesday, it’s very telling that even Jay Love’s internal polling has shown this race to be neck-and-neck. Alabama pollsters with a long track record in statewide politics like Anzalone and the Capital Survey Research Center have both shown Bright leading by ten. Perhaps the race isn’t quite as favorable for Bright as it was in early August (though there’s no real reason for it not to be), but it’s pretty clear that SurveyUSA popped out a dud — plain and simple.
SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.
(Hat-tip: Left in Alabama)
From Roll Call:
Louisiana will not hold its scheduled primaries Saturday because of the devastation and voter displacement caused by Hurricane Gustav earlier this week.
State election officials could decide as early as today when to reschedule the elections, and as of Wednesday there still was some hope of being able to hold the primaries on Sept. 13. Doing so would allow any required runoffs to take place on Oct. 4, the state’s currently scheduled runoff date.
Another possibility could be to hold all primaries on Oct. 4. That would push any required runoffs back to November and mean that some districts may not have a general election until December.
If Louisiana’s congressional elections are pushed back to December, that could be bad news for Democrats in LA-04, LA-06, and LA-07 — as a high African-American turnout inspired by Barack Obama is considered a key element of Dem chances here.
On the other hand, if Obama does win in November, the GOP’s hard-right base could be in such a state of depression and malaise that they might not be feeling pumped up about showing up for a December general election. (Shades of TX-23, anyone?)
The decision is up to Gov. Bobby Jindal.
The following is the first of two parts reviewing the fun, the interesting and the just plain odd in Oregon’s Voters’ Pamphlet this year. Think of this as a bit of humor to brighten your days.
Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…
The Oregon Voters’ Pamphlet is currently posted at: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/nov42008/military_vp.html.
Please note that this is the “Military/Overseas” edition and as such is a bit rough (it is basically scanned in PDFs).
For each candidate I will present their main message (for Rs and any fun third party folks), and my thoughts on what they are really saying. Candidates are Rs unless otherwise indicated.
President:
McCain
What he says: Washington in broken.
What he means: I broke Washington and you fools expect me to fix it.
Nader (Peace Party)
What he says: Only I can fight for these issues that you care about.
What he means: I can do this because I apparently don’t read any newspapers and have a huge ego.
US Senate:
Smith
What he says: I am a centrist who supports both the Republican and Democrat (he spells it that way) parties.
What he means: HA HA, you fools, I love playing moderate for two years so I can be a typical Repub for four.
US Congress
2nd District
Walden
What he says: Being environmentally responsible is good for all of us.
What he means: Drilling and clear-cutting are good for all of us.
3rd District
Lopez
What she says: Local government is best.
What she means: But I want to be part of the federal government because they have all the $.
5th District
Erickson
What he says: I ran a business so I can run a government.
What he means: I hope to God people don’t remember how much of a hypocrite I am, I mean that trip to Cuba was a bit shady…
Secretary of State
Dancer
What he says: I want a nonpartisan Secretary of State.
What he means: Because that’s the only way a Republican will ever win this office.
State Treasurer:
Alley
What he says: I have run a business so I can run the state.
What he means: I hope to God people don’t know I ran my business (Pixelworks) into the ground (The price of the stock has dropped from $9/share two years ago to $1.60 now and was worth $60/share in 2004).
State Legislature:
I only profile selected races here due to space (e.g. those that are most humorous.
State Senate:
2nd District
Atkinson
What he says: I am a smart, independent and principled leader.
What he means: Yet I managed to shoot myself in the knee while fixing a friend’s bike.
14th District (My District)
Michaels
What she says; Vote by mail is rife with voter fraud (it’s not actually).
What she means: I don’t like vote by mail because it means Republicans lose.
State House:
9th District
Pearn
What he says: Government regulation has cost Oregon jobs.
What he means: I hate government, I want to drown it in a bath tub.
22nd District
Chereck (link to his bat-shit crazy post: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/nov42008/military_vp/chere_t.pdf)
What he says: Following God is the way to govern.
What he means: I want a theocracy.
Note: This guy is f-ing crazy. Among other things, he lists that he has a social security card and is married. He also lists “The Bible” as part of his education, as well as “Pesticide application recertification training”.
36th District
Oppenheimer
What he says: My ideas should become law.
What he means: I know I have no chance to win, so why don’t I just propose the craziest things possible?
52nd District
Lindland
What he says: I’m not a normal politician.
What he means: If people f-k with me, I’ll use all my UFC skills against them, like in this video (except I won’t lose this time):
Let me know what you think…