Swing State Project

A Rasmussen report has shown that NYC mayor Mike Bloomberg, widely thought to be a potential third party candidate, would be a GOP spoiler in the 2008 election.  Their poll shows that when Bloomberg is thrown into the mix, Clinton (only dem. they’ve polled so far) only loses one percentage point, opposed to Giuliani and McCain who drop to 37%.  With a year and a half to go, Bloomberg already has 9% support, which could easily be built on.  This comes with another Rasmussen report that shows 19% of the population would be “somewhat likely” to go third party.  Should Bloomberg jump in and spend ½ billion as expected he could get enough to secure 2008.  hell he might even win, or at the very least get a few electoral votes.  Either way, as a scholar of both presidential elections and a third party advocate, I’d LOVE to see this.

Jim Inhofe is the worst Senator around right now. Perhaps you could also make a case for few others. Jeff Sessions and Mitch McConnell both come to mind but Inhofe’s global warming lunacy puts him in a league of his own.

I do not want my state to suffer under another six years of embarrassment.  We do have plenty of Democrats that could give Inhofe a run for his money. Our Attorney General, Drew Edmonson, would definitely make for a strong candidate. Brad Henry, however, our incredibly popular Democratic Governor, would instantly move this race into the tossup or lean Dem. category. While Henry has said he is not interested, there is still room for persuasion. When it comes to defeating Inhofe, we have to shoot for the best possible candidate. I have taken the first step in trying to get Governor Henry in this race and I invite all of you to join with me.

Why Henry?

In an ubber conservative state that gave President Bush one of his widest margins of victory, Henry managed to trounce his Republican opponent this past cycle 67% to 33%. Bear in mind that Henry barley made it to the governor’s office to begin with. Back in 2002, he edged out Steve Largent by less than one percent thanks in part to Gary Richardson, an anti-government Ross Perot type who ran as an independent.

His opposition was more than formidable. Thinking he would automatically be competitive in such a Republican trending state, Istook gave up his coveted Oklahoma City based U.S. House seat to run for governor. But his campaign would fizzle like crazy because of Henry’s remarkable popularity.

Not only is Henry one of our state’s most popular Democratic politicians, he has also been a solid governor. Frank Keating, his wingnut Republican predecessor, ran one of the worst, if not the worst, budget deficits in state history. Put simply, our state was a total mess. Henry amazingly turned this deficit into a surplus without massive cuts to education and health care. This is by far his most significant accomplishment so far.

While Henry is not the typical progressive pit bull that netroots movements usually support, his laid back, bipartisan style is a perfect fit for Oklahoma. 

Dumping Inhofe

Until recently, I had always thought that Inhofe was just another run of the mill conservative Republican. His notorious reaction to the Abu_Gharib prison scandal, however, made me realize that Inhofe was beyond crazy: 

“I’m probably not the only one up at this table that is more outraged by the outrage than we are by the treatment,” Sen. James Inhofe said during a hearing on the Abu Ghraib prison scandal.

And then of course, you all know that Inhofe is the global warming deniers go-to-guy in Washington. Not only is he denial of one our country’s most pressing environmental concerns, he routinely struts around with lunatic comments like these that do nothing but embarrass his home state:

“What would happen to the Weather Channel’s ratings if all the sudden people weren’t scared anymore?”

Comments like these reek of a level of stupidity, craziness and just downright idiocy that don’t belong in the U.S. Senate. I want this man out. And the best way to ensure that this happens is to run our governor, one of the strongest candidates Oklahoma Democrats have had in a long time.

Since I had so much fun last time, I figure it’s high time for another music-related open thread.

Here’s what’s been in my CD player this week.  As you can tell, I’ve been on a real power pop kick lately:

Big Star – #1 Record/Radio City (1972/1974, Ardent; r: 1992, Stax)
Cheap Trick – Rockford (2006, Big3)  [Surprisingly, the best CT record since Heaven Tonight.  This flat-out rocks.]
Bob Dylan – Bringing It All Back Home (1965, Columbia; r: 2003, Sony)
The Flamin Groovies – Shake Some Action (1976, Aim; r: 2005, DBK)
Mudhoney – Superfuzz Bigmuff Plus Early Singles (1990, Sub Pop)
The Posies – Frosting on the Beater (1993, DGC)
Screaming Trees – Ocean of Confusion: 1989-1996 (2005, Epic)
Sloan – Never Hear The End Of It (2006, Murder/Sony)

What have you been listening to lately?  And is anyone else as excited as I am about Trent Reznor’s upcoming Orwellian dystopia, Year Zero?

(Bumped. – promoted by James L.)

Q: How bad do you think it’s gonna be?

A: Pretty goddamn bad. Probably all the other Families will line up against us. That’s alright – this thing’s gotta happen every five years or so – ten years – helps to get rid of the bad blood. Been ten years since the last one. You know you got to stop them at the beginning, like they should have stopped Hitler at Munich, They should never’ve let him get away with that. They were just asking for big trouble.

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Saturday Night Discussion Items (James):

• Florida: Republican Gov. Charlie Crist, with a single stroke, made his state more politically competitive for Democrats by restoring the voting rights of an estimated 515,000 felons who have committed “less serious” (nonviolent) crimes.  Salon’s Farhad Manjoo gives the implications:

  The ex-cons belong to traditionally Democratic demographics — many are African-American, and many are poor. If they’re allowed to vote, they’ll likely go to the polls at lower rates than everyone else; Uggen and Manza’s work suggests felons turn out to vote at about the half the general turnout rate in any given election. But in a state as closely divided politically as Florida, that could still make all the difference. In the past several decades, say Uggen and Manza, at least two Senate races in Florida would have gone to Democrats instead of Republicans had felons had the right to vote. Buddy McKay would have beaten Connie Mack in 1988, and Betty Castor would have beaten Mel Martinez in 2004. And, of course, the 2000 presidential election would have gone to Al Gore. Uggen and Manza’s research suggests Gore might have picked up 60,000 votes from felons.

• NY-25: Dan Maffei rides again.
• OR-Sen: Will he or won’t he?  The Draft DeFazio for Senate campaign kicks into high gear.
• CT-05: Freshman Rep. Chris Murphy is hitting the ground running, raising $420,000 in the first quarter of 2007, according to a DCCC e-mail.  Numbers like those this early in the cycle should make his potential Republican challengers pause.
• NM-02: New Mexico FBIHOP takes a look at the potential challengers to Republican Rep. Steve Pearce in this R+5.7 district.

Under a rule Crist has made, all but the most violent felons, nearly one million in total will once again have the right to vote in florida.  This will have several ramifications on the state, some profound, some superficial. 
  Let’s start with the profound.  First and most importantly of all, this will bring the country one step closer to a world free of jim crow.  While most of the Jim Crow laws are no longer in effect, this rule, which had been written into the state’s constitution for decades, was one of them.  While all felons are obviously not African americans, nationwide there is a clear slant, in many cases due to unfairness in the criminal justice system. 
Another important aspect is that it will be a lot harder for republican operatives to disenfranchise voters, that coupled with a voting machines that have a voting trail (also Crist’s idea) could swing many key florida races to us, but more importantly will restore voting rights and democracy to florida. 
  There’s also the factor of how this will affect dems.  Felons do typically vote towards dems more and while African americans (which voted 84% for Kerry) do not make up the majority of felons, it will help.  Whether this turns the state, or even a single race is yet to be seen, but it could certainly help.  More importantly however, I say we declare Crist-for the time being at least- a democrats republican.  The man restored voting rights people!

Jim Inhofe is worried. And he may very well be justified. Accoridng to the Tulsa World, Chuck Schumer and the DSCC are gunning for him and looking hard for a candidate.

Inhofe says the same people who took out Pombo are now gunning for him.

He based that prediction at least partly on recent fundraising letters the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee sent out using Inhofe as one of the major reasons donors should pony up for the cause.

“One seat. That’s all it would take to flip Senate control back to the GOP in 2008,” one letter states.

“And once again, the Oklahoma Republican Senator James Inhofe — who has called global warming the ‘greatest hoax ever 
perpetrated on the American people’ — would assume the chairmanship of the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works.”

Unfortunately, our two strongest candidates have said no, for now.

Oklahoma Gov. Brad Henry has said no to national Democrats hoping to recruit him for the race.

U.S. Rep. Dan Boren is also taking a pass on the 2008 Senate race….

Although much of what Inhofe said was likley due to paranoia, it does appear that the DSCC is looking at this race. We need to help them out and urge either Henty, Boren or another strong candidate to take up this race!

 

Is it just me, or are ads produced by Democratic-allied groups getting stronger and stronger?  The Hill takes a look at three ads by Americans United for Change targeting Republican Senators Collins (ME), McConnell (KY) and Sununu (NH).  And while the ads against McConnell and Collins are both pretty good, the Sununu edit takes the prize:

Damn.

I’m feeling pretty good about this race.  Given New Hampshire’s rapidly shifting partisan composition, Sununu’s steadfast support for Bush’s disastrous and unnecessary war in Iraq, and support from his new best friends at the extreme-right Club For Growth, I’m feeling pretty pumped about the chances of any challenger who isn’t a Lieberdem with a crappy electoral track record and a name that rhymes with Boba Fett.

Race Tracker: NH-Sen

(Mo’ Money. – promoted by DavidNYC)

UPDATE:

• FL-22:

Ron Klein (D-inc.): $600K raised; $500K cash-on-hand

Man is that ever a formidable amount.

• NH-Sen:

Steve Marchand (D): $100K raised (~$85K for primary, 250 donors)
Katrina Swett (D): $462K raised ($304K for primary); $443K cash-on-hand

Glad to see Marchand come in with six figures. Swett, who is almost certainly my least favorite Senate challenger this cycle, undoubtedly got a lot of help from her father, Rep. Tom Lantos (CA-12). Can’t wait to see how many of her donors maxed out – and are from out of state. (Marchand’s money was half in-state.)

• CT-05

Chris Murphy (D-inc.): $420K raised (via DCCC e-mail)

Chris Murphy rode to what I consider the largest win in 2006 against a non-scandal-ridden, non-crazy opponent. That, combined with his prodigious fundraising, will probably mean the GOP will have a tough time scaring up a challenger for this fast-rising star.

• IN-08

John Hostettler (R): -$216 raised; $9K cash-on-hand

Ah, this is just too perfect. John Hostettler, whose well-known refusal to fundraise directly led to his 22-point thrashing last November, managed to raise negative $216 this quarter. No, that is not a typo. Somehow, I don’t think he’ll be seeking a rematch.

• VA-02

Thelma Drake (R-inc.): $227K raised; $190K cash-on-hand

Freshman Drake won in a 51-49 squeaker last year, despite her district’s heavy Republican tilt. Seems like she must be at least a little bit scared about her hold on the district. Unfortunately, we can’t compare these figures to the comparable period last cycle because she didn’t get into the race until late in 2004. (After self-hating gay Republican Ed Schrock was outed and quit the race.)

• CA-11

Richard Pombo (R): -$825 raised; $35K cash-on-hand

Wow, he managed to out-un-raise John Hostettler. Impressive. Anyhow, there’d been some soft talk about Pombo seeking a rematch. Numbers talk a lot louder, and what they’re saying is: bullshit.

P.S. I took a quick look at all the Senate candidates listed on ActBlue who are running this cycle. Only one candidate has raised a material amount of money via AB so far: Tim Johnson, with almost $60K and 1,000 donors. A few other candidates have very low four figures, and most have zero.

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It’s that time of year again: the first fundraising reports for the 2008 election season are starting to trickle in.  Since the Presidential fundraising numbers are already well-covered by this point, let’s start logging fundraising totals for House and Senate candidates.

• MN-Sen:

Al Franken (D): $1.3m raised; $1m cash-on-hand
Norm Coleman (R-inc.): $1.5m raised; $2.8m cash-on-hand

• LA-Sen:

Mary Landrieu (D-Inc.): $1.02m raised; $1.8m cash-on-hand
(H/T: The Guru)

• NC-Sen:

Elizabeth Dole (R-Inc.): $1.7m raised; $1.5m cash-on-hand
(H/T: BlueSouth)

It may be early, but as Franken’s example proves, the campaign window keeps getting pushed back earlier and earlier each cycle.  If you’ve seen any other noteworthy numbers for House and Senate incumbents or challengers, please post them in the comments.

Final Results from today’s primary:


  Ken Svoboda (R).  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  9,664  34.78
  Chris Beutler (D) .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  13,213  47.55
  Roger Yant Sr. (I).  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  3,961  14.26
  Mike Deal (I) .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  830 2.99
  WRITE-IN. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  117   .42
  Total . . . . .  .  .  .  .  27,785

Beutler and Svoboda advance to the general election on May 1. This is the most important race in Nebraska this year. The mayor’s office in Lincoln is in Democratic hands right now, but the current mayor Coleen Seng has come under a lot of fire and has generally been ineffective. Beutler’s got a long progressive history in the Nebraska legislature, and getting him elected mayor of Lincoln will be a big step for Democrats in Nebraska. Today was a huge step in that direction.

Another Democratic candidate has stepped up to compete in the June 19th special election to fill the vacant seat of the late Republican Rep. Charlie Norwood: James Marlow.  From the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Political Insider:

Just before 10 a.m., we got a call from James Marlow, the new Democratic candidate for the 10th District congressional race in east Georgia.

He’d just finished breaking the news of his candidacy to the hometowners in Lincolton at the steps of the county courthouse. He counted nearly 60 witnesses, which in a town with four stoplights constitutes a throng.

“I just feel a calling to serve. I know that sounds a little corny,” Marlow said.

He’s a 46-year-old native, whose father served as mayor of Lincolnton. The son rode the Internet. You might remember the younger Marlow as the founder of AnythingSouthern.com, which was to be a way to get information on, well, anything Southern – food, religion, entertainment, the works.

The site was one of the many dot-com bubbles that popped.

Most recently, Marlow was a sales director for Yahoo Inc. He’s now a full-time candidate.

While four other Democrats are currently in the special election pool, Marlow has attracted the backing of local and state Democratic leaders, according to CQ Politics:

Marlow obtained the backing of 13 Democratic county chairmen at a meeting held March 31 in the 10th District city of Clarksville, according to Marlow spokesman Emil Runge.

Although this is the candidate’s first foray into politics, his name is not unknown in local Democratic circles. His father, Buddy Marlow, served as mayor of Lincolnton. The campaign staff Marlow has assembled, including Jeff DiSantis, former executive director of the state Democratic Party, and Runge, former state Democratic Party communications director, likely will bolster his rookie political effort.

As for campaign issues, Marlow told the AJC that he won’t shy away from Iraq on the campaign trail:

He’s eager to talk about health care, education, and the creation of good jobs. “Iraq is obviously an issue,” he said.

As we said yesterday, it’s clear that Democrats think it’s to their advantage to talk about the Middle East in this race.

Marlow says he’s an eager defender of America, but is also a defender of American troops. In the latter category, he places decent treatment for wounded soldiers and armor for those in battle.

It also means – and this may become his catch phrase – “not putting troops in the wrong place, at the wrong time, and in the wrong numbers.” Competency, in other words.

While Bush won this district twice by hefty margins (63% and 65%, in that order), but Clinton was able to win it twice in the ’90s.  And, according to the Marlow, the district has had no trouble voting for Democrats on the state level:

As for those who think the Tenth too Republican to elect him, Marlow points out that Agriculture Commissioner Tommy Irvin, Attorney General Thurbert Baker, and Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond all carried the district. All, of course, were Democrats.

Georgia hasn’t been a bright spot for Democrats recently, but special elections have the habit of producing unpredictable outcomes.  The upcoming race to fill Georgia’s 10th could be worth keeping an eye on.

On the web: Marlow for Georgia

Race Tracker: GA-10