Another month, another opportunity to pause and take stock of all the potential retirements by some of the sun-ravaged mummy husks currently occupying the House of Representatives. Like last time, I’ve put together two charts: one tracking definite retirements and the other potential retirements, listing each district by its incumbent, PVI, and the representative’s age on election day in 2008. With a fresh batch of House retirement speculation straight from Karl “MC” Rove himself, the potential open seat playing field has expanded considerably.
| District | Incumbent | Party | PVI | Age | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA-52 | Hunter | R | R+9.3 | 60 | Running for President |
| CO-02 | Udall | D | D+8.1 | 58 | Running for Senate |
| IL-04 | Gutierrez | D | D+30.7 | 54 | Retiring |
Since last time, there’s been only one addition to the definite list of retirements (Hunter), and one subtraction: an astute reader sent us this Roll Call link from last December, which indicates that Elton Gallegly is intending to run again in 2008. Still, he was marked by Rove as a potential retirement in the GSA Powerpoint, so he won’t be going from our other watchlist anytime soon:
| District | Incumbent | Party | PVI | Age | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-AL | Young | R | R+14.3 | 75 | Speculation* |
| AL-02 | Everett | R | R+13.2 | 72 | Speculation/Rumors |
| CA-24 | Gallegly | R | R+4.8 | 64 | Botched a retirement attempt in 2006* |
| CA-25 | McKeon | R | R+7.1 | 70 | Speculation* |
| CA-41 | Lewis | R | R+9.0 | 74 | Speculation* |
| DE-AL | Castle | R | D+6.5 | 69 | Health issues* |
| FL-10 | Young | R | D+1.1 | 78 | Age issues/Speculation* |
| IL-14 | Hastert | R | R+4.8 | 67 | Hastert issues* |
| IN-07 | Carson | D | D+8.7 | 70 | Health issues |
| IA-03 | Boswell | D | D+1.4 | 74 | Health issues |
| IA-04 | Latham | R | D+0.4 | 60 | Possible Senate run |
| IA-05 | King | R | R+8.4 | 59 | Possible Senate run |
| LA-01 | Jindal | R | R+18.5 | 37 | Running for Governor* |
| LA-06 | Baker | R | R+6.5 | 60 | Possible Senate run |
| MD-06 | Bartlett | R | R+12.8 | 82 | Age issues* |
| ME-01 | Allen | D | D+6.2 | 63 | Likely Senate run |
| MI-03 | Ehlers | R | R+9.0 | 74 | Speculation* |
| MI-09 | Knollenberg | R | R+0.1 | 75 | Speculation* |
| MT-AL | Rehberg | R | R+10.8 | 53 | Possible Senate run |
| NC-09 | Myrick | R | R+12.2 | 67 | Speculation* |
| NE-02 | Terry | R | R+9.0 | 46 | Possible Senate run |
| OH-16 | Regula | R | R+3.6 | 84 | Age issues/Speculation* |
| TX-04 | Hall | R | R+17.1 | 85 | Age issues |
| VA-11 | Davis | R | R+0.6 | 59 | Possible Senate run* |
| WY-AL | Cubin | R | R+19.4 | 61 | Speculation* |
All districts marked with an asterisk* were identified as possible open seats in the Rove-generated GSA presentation.
On the face of it, there could potentially be a fair bit of open red turf to play in next year. One district I have my eye on is Richard Baker’s LA-06. While Kerry won only 40% of the vote there in 2004 (and Gore 43% in 2000), the game could potentially be quite different in 2008. Baton Rouge, the population center of this district, absorbed between 50,000 to 100,000 Hurricane Katrina and Rita refugees from New Orleans since 2005. You can bet that Sen. Mary Landrieu will be mining all of the displaced (and presumably Democratic) voters she can in her re-election bid next year; a strong Democratic House challenger would be well-placed to ride on those coattails. Throw an open seat into the mix, and things could get very, very interesting.
you already know I agree with you about LA-06. East Baton Rouge Parish will be a battleground parish in 2008, and Landrieu will have to intall a turnout operation in that parish’s Democratic precinct if she desires to win. And if local politicians in East Baton Rouge cooperate, that parish can be won, giving anyone running in LA-06 enough votes to neutralize Republican margins from Ascension and Livingston Parishes. Turnout operations will also have to be created in St. Helena, East Feliciana, West Feliciana and especially Iberville Parish. Although Pointe Coupee Parish is a Democratic Parish, the gerrymander after the 2000 census removed Democratic precincts in LA-06 and placed them in Alexander’s district. The precincts remaining in LA-06 are collectively split, thereby requiring a turnout operation in certain portions of Pointe Coupee Parish.
Anyone running in LA-06 will have to energize the African-American vote by highlighting Baker’s opposition to the Voting Rights Act. Commercials discussing his opposition to hurricane funding for Louisiana in the Supplementary Appropriations will also have to be invoked, but I suggest doing that in the last week when he has no chance to respond. There is a bench in this district, and I hope some of the potential candidates I have in mind announce. Baker almost lost in 1998 as a result of his opposition to a popular President. Now that the President he supports is unpopular, I imagine a similar dynamic can be created.
These are some of my thoughts. But if we want Baker’s seat, we will have to run strong candidates in two other Louisiana seats. Think Emanuel’s Kentucky strategy in 2006: contest 3, gain (at least) 1, the most urban one.
The seat that Marty Meehan is vacating. It has a PVI of D+12 but Republican Main Street chairman and former Congressman Charlie Bass thinks the Republicans actually have a chance there.
Ill tell you right now that the Democrats probably have a better chance of picking up GA-10(Norwood’s seat and R+13) than Republicans do of picking up D+12, especially with Dubya and the GOP escalating the war.
in these districts. 1996 was the last time that the Democrats had a good Presidential election and it is interesting to see how these districts vote at the top of the ticket in a decent year.
Clinton won the following Republican held of these in 1996:
CA-24(Gallegly)
DE-AL(Castle)
FL-10(Young)
IA-04(Latham)
LA-06(Baker)
OH-16(Regula)
VA-11(Davis)
Those are seven that should be very much in play if open.
I also note that in 1996, Clinton carried every one of our 2006 pickups with exception of TX-22 and PA-10. This means that we should be able to hold all of our incumbents with the exception of TX-22 and PA-10 as long as they can use the advantages of incumbency and hold on to the Clinton majority vote.
Tancredo announced today that he is running for president. Whether he bows out in time to run for his seat in CO-6 remains to be seen. But I think he at least deserves to be on the potential retirement list.
An open seat in Colorado, and Tancredo saying offensive things during GOP debates? Please oh please oh please let it happen.
Literally…any info on the players in that district? Is there a serious favorite or will it be a really open free for all…with everyone on a more or less even playing field?
Since the PVI was established the partisan affiliation has shifted away from the GOP and toward the Democrats.
How much of a correction factor should be applied to the PVI to reflect the current partisan affiliation of the district?
It seems like it’s worth taking stock of this shift when evaluating which raises may be competitive.
Rep. Jo Ann Davis VA-1 is currently fighting a reoccurrence of breast cancer and she absolutely should be on the possible retirements list.