House 2008: Open Seat Watch (March)

Definite House Retirements










































































District Incumbent Party PVI Age Notes
AL-02 Everett R R+13.2 71 Retiring
AZ-01 Renzi R R+2.2 50 Retiring
CA-04 Doolittle R R+10.9 58 Retiring
CA-12 Lantos D D+22.5 80 Retiring
CA-52 Hunter R R+9.3 60 Running for President
CO-02 Udall D D+8.1 58 Running for Senate
CO-06 Tancredo R R+10 62 Running for President
IL-11 Weller R R+1.1 51 Retiring
IL-18 LaHood R R+5.5 62 Retiring
LA-04 McCrery R R+6.5 59 Retiring
ME-01 Allen D D+6.2 63 Running for Senate
MN-03 Ramstad R R+0.5 62 Retiring (?)
MS-03 Pickering R R+14.1 45 Retiring
NJ-03 Saxton R D+3.3 60 Retiring
NJ-07 Ferguson R R+0.6 38 Retiring
NM-01 Wilson R D+2.4 47 Running for Senate
NM-02 Pearce R R+5.7 61 Running for Senate
NM-03 Udall D D+5.5 60 Running for Senate
NY-21 McNulty D D+8.7 61 Retiring
NY-25 Walsh R D+3.4 61 Retiring
OH-07 Hobson R R+6.0 72 Retiring
OH-15 Pryce R R+1.1 57 Retiring
OH-16 Regula R R+3.6 84 Retiring
PA-05 Peterson R R+9.7 69 Retiring
WY-AL Cubin R R+19.4 61 Retiring



*Denotes impending special election

Vacancies & Resignations

District Incumbent Party PVI Age Notes
IL-14 Hastert R R+4.8 67 Resigned*
LA-01 Jindal R R+18.5 37 Elected Governor*
LA-06 Baker R R+6.5 60 Cashing In*
MS-01 Wicker R R+10.0 57 Appointed to the Senate*

Potential House Retirements































































































































































District Incumbent Party PVI Age Notes
AK-AL Young R R+14.3 75 Under investigation
CA-24 Gallegly R R+4.8 64 Botched a retirement attempt in 2006
CA-41 Lewis R R+9.0 74 Under investigation
CO-05 Lamborn R R+15.7 54 Primary challenge
DE-AL Castle R D+6.5 69 Health issues
FL-10 Young R D+1.1 78 Age issues/Speculation
GA-10 Broun R R+12.7 61 Primary challenge
IA-03 Boswell D D+1.4 74 Health issues/Primary challenge
IL-03 Lipinski D D+10.3 42 Primary challenge
LA-02 Jefferson D D+27.8 61 Indicted
MD-01 Gilchrest R R+9.8 62 Primary challenge
MD-04 Wynn D D+29.8 57 Primary challenge
MD-06 Bartlett R R+12.8 82 Age issues
MO-06 Graves R R+4.8 44 Potential gubernatorial run
MO-08 Emerson R R+11.0 58 Potential gubernatorial run
MO-09 Hulshof R R+6.5 50 Potential gubernatorial run
MI-03 Ehlers R R+9.0 74 Speculation
NC-09 Myrick R R+12.2 67 Speculation
NY-23 McHugh R R+0.2 60 Speculation
OH-02 Schmidt R R+13.1 56 Primary challenge
TN-09 Cohen D D+18.1 59 Primary challenge
TX-04 Hall R R+17.1 85 Age issues/Primary challenge
VA-11 Davis R R+0.6 59 Mulling retirement

House 2008: Open Seat Watch (January)

Can you believe that the last time we took stock of the open seat situation in the House of Representatives was on November 10th? With news of the shocking retirement of GOP Rep. Jim Walsh leaking today, it’s time to take another look. A lot has changed on the House scene since November, with the retirements of Reps. McCrery, Peterson, Ferguson, Doolittle, Lantos and of course, Walsh; the resignations of Reps. Baker and Wicker; and the death of Rep. Julia Carson.

Following the format of the previous installments in this series, I’ve put together two charts: one tracking definite retirements and the other potential retirements, resignations, and primary defeats, listing each district by its incumbent, PVI, and the representative’s age on election day in 2008.

Definite House Retirements










































































District Incumbent Party PVI Age Notes
AL-02 Everett R R+13.2 71 Retiring
AZ-01 Renzi R R+2.2 50 Retiring
CA-04 Doolittle R R+10.9 58 Retiring
CA-12 Lantos D D+22.5 80 Retiring
CA-52 Hunter R R+9.3 60 Running for President
CO-02 Udall D D+8.1 58 Running for Senate
CO-06 Tancredo R R+10 62 Running for President
IL-11 Weller R R+1.1 51 Retiring
IL-14 Hastert R R+4.8 67 Retiring*
IL-18 LaHood R R+5.5 62 Retiring
IN-07 Carson D D+8.7 70 Deceased*
LA-01 Jindal R R+18.5 37 Elected Governor*
LA-04 McCrery R R+6.5 59 Retiring
LA-06 Baker R R+6.5 60 Cashing In*
ME-01 Allen D D+6.2 63 Running for Senate
MN-03 Ramstad R R+0.5 62 Retiring (?)
MS-01 Wicker R R+10.0 57 Appointed to the Senate*
MS-03 Pickering R R+14.1 45 Retiring
NJ-03 Saxton R D+3.3 60 Retiring
NJ-07 Ferguson R R+0.6 38 Retiring
NM-01 Wilson R D+2.4 47 Running for Senate
NM-02 Pearce R R+5.7 61 Running for Senate
NM-03 Udall D D+5.5 60 Running for Senate
NY-21 McNulty D D+8.7 61 Retiring
NY-25 Walsh R D+3.4 61 Retiring
OH-07 Hobson R R+6.0 72 Retiring
OH-15 Pryce R R+1.1 57 Retiring
OH-16 Regula R R+3.6 84 Retiring
PA-05 Peterson R R+9.7 69 Retiring
WY-AL Cubin R R+19.4 61 Retiring



*Denotes impending special election

That adds up to a whopping 24 House retirements or resignations for Republicans. It should be noted that at this point in the 2006, there were only 13 announced retirements by GOP House incumbents. February and March still offer some time for more House crumb-bums to cut their political careers mercifully short, and I expect that a few will follow the recent example of Reps. McCrery, Baker, and Walsh. Perhaps a few of their names might even be found in the list below…

Potential House Retirements































































































































































District Incumbent Party PVI Age Notes
AK-AL Young R R+14.3 75 Under investigation
CA-24 Gallegly R R+4.8 64 Botched a retirement attempt in 2006
CA-41 Lewis R R+9.0 74 Under investigation
CO-05 Lamborn R R+15.7 54 Primary challenge
DE-AL Castle R D+6.5 69 Health issues
FL-10 Young R D+1.1 78 Age issues/Speculation
GA-10 Broun R R+12.7 61 Primary challenge
IA-03 Boswell D D+1.4 74 Health issues/Primary challenge
IL-03 Lipinski D D+10.3 42 Primary challenge
LA-02 Jefferson D D+27.8 61 Indicted
MD-01 Gilchrest R R+9.8 62 Primary challenge
MD-04 Wynn D D+29.8 57 Primary challenge
MD-06 Bartlett R R+12.8 82 Age issues
MO-06 Graves R R+4.8 44 Potential gubernatorial run
MO-08 Emerson R R+11.0 58 Potential gubernatorial run
MO-09 Hulshof R R+6.5 50 Potential gubernatorial run
MI-03 Ehlers R R+9.0 74 Speculation
NC-09 Myrick R R+12.2 67 Speculation
NY-23 McHugh R R+0.2 60 Speculation
OH-02 Schmidt R R+13.1 56 Primary challenge
TN-09 Cohen D D+18.1 59 Primary challenge
TX-04 Hall R R+17.1 85 Age issues/Primary challenge
VA-11 Davis R R+0.6 59 Mulling retirement

You may have noticed that I included crumb-bum Bill Young, despite the Congressman’s recent signals that he’ll run again. I suspect that old Bill has a trick up his sleeve, and might surprise us by retiring after the filing deadline closes, leaving his wife or some other hand-picked successor to have a cakewalk election. In short: I don’t trust this jerk. He’s staying on the list.

House 2008: Open Seat Watch (November)

With the mini-flurry of GOP retirements on Friday by Jim Saxton and Babs Cubin, now is as good a time as any to take stock of the open seat situation in the House. There’s been quite a lot of movement since our last installment in October, with the retirements of GOP Reps. Regula, Hobson, Tancredo, and of course Saxton and Cubin. GOP Rep. Steve Pearce is joining Heather Wilson in the New Mexico Senate race, opening up both their seats in the House. It also appears that Rep. Tom Udall (D) will join them in the Senate race. In a rare Democratic announcement, we saw the decision of New York Rep. Mike McNulty (D) to retire for health reasons.

Following the format of the previous installments in this series, I’ve put together two charts: one tracking definite retirements and the other potential retirements, resignations, and primary defeats, listing each district by its incumbent, PVI, and the representative’s age on election day in 2008.

Definite House Retirements








































District Incumbent Party PVI Age Notes
AL-02 Everett R R+13.2 71 Retiring
AZ-01 Renzi R R+2.2 50 Retiring
CA-52 Hunter R R+9.3 60 Running for President
CO-02 Udall D D+8.1 58 Running for Senate
CO-06 Tancredo R R+10 62 Running for President
IL-11 Weller R R+1.1 51 Retiring
IL-14 Hastert R R+4.8 67 Retiring
IL-18 LaHood R R+5.5 62 Retiring
ME-01 Allen D D+6.2 63 Running for Senate
MN-03 Ramstad R R+0.5 62 Retiring (?)
MS-03 Pickering R R+14.1 45 Retiring
NJ-03 Saxton R D+3.3 60 Retiring
NM-01 Wilson R D+2.4 47 Running for Senate
NM-02 Pearce R R+5.7 61 Running for Senate
NM-03 Udall D D+5.5 60 Running for Senate
NY-21 McNulty D D+8.7 61 Retiring
OH-07 Hobson R R+6.0 72 Retiring
OH-15 Pryce R R+1.1 57 Retiring
OH-16 Regula R R+3.6 84 Retiring
WY-AL Cubin R R+19.4 61 Retiring

That adds up to a whopping 16 House retirements for Republicans, many of them in marginal districts. It’s worth noting that at this point in the 2005, there were only 12 announced retirements by GOP House incumbents. And there is still plenty of time left on the clock for more announcements, possibly from some of the folks listed below…

Potential House Retirements































































































































































District Incumbent Party PVI Age Notes
AK-AL Young R R+14.3 75 Under investigation
CA-04 Doolittle R R+10.9 58 Under investigation
CA-24 Gallegly R R+4.8 64 Botched a retirement attempt in 2006
CA-41 Lewis R R+9.0 74 Under investigation
CO-05 Lamborn R R+15.7 54 Primary challenge
DE-AL Castle R D+6.5 69 Health issues
FL-10 Young R D+1.1 78 Age issues/Speculation
GA-10 Broun R R+12.7 61 Primary challenge
IA-03 Boswell D D+1.4 74 Health issues
IA-04 Latham R D+0.4 60 Possible Senate run
IA-05 King R R+8.4 59 Possible Senate run
IL-03 Lipinski D D+10.3 42 Primary challenge
IN-07 Carson D D+8.7 70 Health issues
LA-02 Jefferson D D+27.8 61 Indicted
MD-01 Gilchrest R R+9.8 62 Primary challenge
MD-04 Wynn D D+29.8 57 Primary challenge
MD-06 Bartlett R R+12.8 82 Age issues
MI-03 Ehlers R R+9.0 74 Speculation
NC-09 Myrick R R+12.2 67 Speculation
NY-23 McHugh R R+0.2 60 Speculation
OH-02 Schmidt R R+13.1 56 Primary challenge
TN-09 Cohen D D+18.1 59 Primary challenge
TX-04 Hall R R+17.1 85 Age issues
VA-11 Davis R R+0.6 59 Mulling retirement

One deletion from this list was Rep. Buck McKeon (R-CA), whose campaign manager e-mailed us the following statement:


It was brought to my attention by our DC staff that you have the Congressman listed as a potential retirement. As the Congressman’s Campaign Manager I can assure you that Congressman McKeon is definitely running for reelection to the 25th CD in California.

Couldn’t be much clearer than that.

Any other retirement rumors flowing through your tubes?

UPDATE: I bet Tom Davis is the next in line to retire. From the WaPo:

He probably won’t run for reelection unless he concludes it is a path to the Senate in 2012, say his associates.

House 2008: Open Seat Watch (October)

Another month, another opportunity to round up all the retirements and open seats that may pop up in next year’s House elections. We have a few changes since our last installment in September, with the retirements of Republicans Jerry Weller (IL-11) and Terry Everett (AL-02), and the decision of GOP Rep. Heather Wilson (NM-01) to run for the Senate. IL-11 and NM-01 stand to be top-tier pick up opportunities for Democrats, and Democrats are hoping that a strong candidate emerges to give Republicans a run for their money in the Alabama seat. (Paging Bobby Bright?) One development that may lift NRCC spirits is the possibility that Jim Ramstad (MN-03) will un-retire, putting a toss-up district into much safer territory for Republicans. For now, we’ll keep him on The List, with the appropriate question mark.

Following the format of the previous diaries, I’ve put together two charts: one tracking definite retirements and the other potential retirements, resignations, and primary defeats, listing each district by its incumbent, PVI, and the representative’s age on election day in 2008.

Definite House Retirements







District Incumbent Party PVI Age Notes
AL-02 Everett R R+13.2 71 Will retire
AZ-01 Renzi R R+2.2 50 Will resign
CA-52 Hunter R R+9.3 60 Running for President
CO-02 Udall D D+8.1 58 Running for Senate
IL-11 Weller R R+1.1 51 Retiring
IL-14 Hastert R R+4.8 67 Retiring
IL-18 LaHood R R+5.5 62 Retiring
ME-01 Allen D D+6.2 63 Running for Senate
MN-03 Ramstad R R+0.5 62 Retiring (?)
MS-03 Pickering R R+14.1 45 Retiring
NM-01 Wilson R D+2.4 47 Running for Senate
OH-15 Pryce R R+1.1 57 Retiring

That adds up to 10 House retirements for Republicans, many of them in marginal districts. As the retirement trends from the 2005/2006 cycle suggest, there still is plenty of time for more House members to grab a life preserver and bail.

Potential House Retirements






































































































































































































District Incumbent Party PVI Age Notes
AK-AL Young R R+14.3 75 Under investigation
CA-04 Doolittle R R+10.9 58 Under investigation
CA-24 Gallegly R R+4.8 64 Botched a retirement attempt in 2006
CA-25 McKeon R R+7.1 70 Speculation
CA-41 Lewis R R+9.0 74 Under investigation
CO-05 Lamborn R R+15.7 54 Primary challenge
CO-06 Tancredo R R+10 62 Undecided
CT-04 Shays R D+5.4 63 Threatening retirement
DE-AL Castle R D+6.5 69 Health issues
FL-10 Young R D+1.1 78 Age issues/Speculation
IL-03 Lipinski D D+10.3 42 Primary challenge
IA-03 Boswell D D+1.4 74 Health issues
IA-04 Latham R D+0.4 60 Possible Senate run
IA-05 King R R+8.4 59 Possible Senate run
IN-07 Carson D D+8.7 70 Health issues
LA-01 Jindal R R+18.5 37 Running for Governor
LA-02 Jefferson D D+27.8 61 Indicted
MD-01 Gilchrest R R+9.8 62 Primary challenge
MD-04 Wynn D D+29.8 57 Primary challenge
MD-06 Bartlett R R+12.8 82 Age issues
MI-03 Ehlers R R+9.0 74 Speculation
NC-09 Myrick R R+12.2 67 Speculation
NJ-03 Saxton R D+3.3 60 Speculation
NY-23 McHugh R R+0.2 60 Speculation
OH-02 Schmidt R R+13.1 56 Primary challenge
OH-07 Hobson R R+6.0 72 Rumors
OH-16 Regula R R+3.6 84 Age issues/Speculation
TN-09 Cohen D D+18.1 59 Primary challenge
TX-04 Hall R R+17.1 85 Age issues
VA-11 Davis R R+0.6 59 Possible Senate run
WY-AL Cubin R R+19.4 61 Speculation

Deletions from this list include Don Manzullo (IL-16), who filed to run again, and Jo Ann Davis (VA-01), who passed away from an ongoing battle with cancer on the weekend. I’ve added Tancredo and Lamborn in Colorado — both have questionable futures in the House. Another addition is Julia Carson, who returns to the list after being scratched last month. While she did announce her re-election, her poor health is increasingly becoming a major story in national and local media, and her fundraising has been beyond anemic. Unfortunately, I have little choice but to add her back to the watch list.

Babs Cubin is also staying on the list, despite saying recently that she “absolutely intends” to run again “at this point in time”. Uh-huh. “At this point in time” and “intend” in the same sentence is a huge retirement red flag. The same goes for New York Republican Jim McHugh, who put it a bit more strongly, but still left the door open for a vacancy by saying “at this time, I fully expect to be a candidate for re-election in 2008”. Expectations have a funny habit of changing, and so does the mind of a congressman. He stays on the watch list.

Anyone else we should know about? Let us know in the comments.

House 2008: Open Seat Watch (September)

With the bombshell news of Republican Rep. Jim Ramstad’s retirement, it’s about time to post another edition of our ongoing House Open Seat Watch series. Much has changed since our last installment in this series back in August. The list of House retirements has swelled with the addition of Reps. Renzi, Pickering, Pryce, Hastert, and, of course, Ramstad. We’ve also had to scratch one retirement, as Illinois Democrat Luís Gutiérrez has withdrawn his resignation.

Following the format of the previous diaries, I’ve put together two charts: one tracking definite retirements and the other potential retirements, resignations, and primary defeats, listing each district by its incumbent, PVI, and the representative’s age on election day in 2008.

Definite House Retirements







District Incumbent Party PVI Age Notes
AZ-01 Renzi R R+2.2 50 Will resign
CA-52 Hunter R R+9.3 60 Running for President
CO-02 Udall D D+8.1 58 Running for Senate
IL-14 Hastert R R+4.8 67 Retiring
IL-18 LaHood R R+5.5 62 Retiring
ME-01 Allen D D+6.2 63 Running for Senate
MN-03 Ramstad R R+0.5 62 Retiring
MS-03 Pickering R R+14.1 45 Retiring
OH-15 Pryce R R+1.1 57 Retiring

Ramstad’s retirement is a serious blow to House Republicans, who now have to deal with several open seats in politically competitive terrain that could easily fall to strong Democratic challengers. Personally popular, Ramstad enjoyed robust margins of victory in a district that Bush won by only four and three point margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively. Add to that the likely vacancy left behind by GOP Rep. Tom Davis of Virginia as he attempts to block former Democratic Gov. Mark Warner’s ascendancy to the Senate, and Republicans are facing a burgeoning amount of marginal seats without incumbents in 2008. Retaking the House is looking harder and harder with every retirement for the NRCC.

Potential House Retirements



























































































































































































































District Incumbent Party PVI Age Notes
AK-AL Young R R+14.3 75 Under investigation
AL-02 Everett R R+13.2 72 Speculation/Rumors
CA-04 Doolittle R R+10.9 58 Under investigation
CA-24 Gallegly R R+4.8 64 Botched a retirement attempt in 2006
CA-25 McKeon R R+7.1 70 Speculation
CA-41 Lewis R R+9.0 74 Under investigation
CT-04 Shays R D+5.4 63 Threatening retirement
DE-AL Castle R D+6.5 69 Health issues
FL-10 Young R D+1.1 78 Age issues/Speculation
IL-03 Lipinski D D+10.3 42 Primary challenge
IL-16 Manzullo R R+4.5 64 Speculation
IA-03 Boswell D D+1.4 74 Health issues
IA-04 Latham R D+0.4 60 Possible Senate run
IA-05 King R R+8.4 59 Possible Senate run
LA-01 Jindal R R+18.5 37 Running for Governor
LA-02 Jefferson D D+27.8 61 Indicted
MD-01 Gilchrest R R+9.8 62 Primary challenge
MD-04 Wynn D D+29.8 57 Primary challenge
MD-06 Bartlett R R+12.8 82 Age issues
MI-03 Ehlers R R+9.0 74 Speculation
NC-09 Myrick R R+12.2 67 Speculation
NJ-03 Saxton R D+3.3 60 Speculation
NY-23 McHugh R R+0.2 60 Speculation
OH-02 Schmidt R R+13.1 56 Primary challenge
OH-07 Hobson R R+6.0 56 Rumors
OH-16 Regula R R+3.6 84 Age issues/Speculation
TN-09 Cohen D D+18.1 59 Primary challenge
TX-04 Hall R R+17.1 85 Age issues
VA-01 Davis, JoAnn R R+8.9 58 Rumors/Health issues
VA-11 Davis R R+0.6 59 Possible Senate run
WY-AL Cubin R R+19.4 61 Speculation

Not many changes here: Chrissy Shays (R-CT) is in, and despite his vow to run again, Jerry Lewis (R-CA) is staying on (you never know when an indictment will drop). It’s well worth mentioning, however, that several of the most recent retirements (Pryce, Pickering, and Ramstad) were genuine surprises and were not found on the previous list of potential retirements. We will very likely be surprised again in the coming days, weeks, and months.

Any other retirement rumors floating through your tubes?

House Retirement Watch: Back to the Future

With retirement fever becoming an epidemic on Capitol Hill this week, I thought it would be useful  to take a look back at how the open seat picture unfolded in the 2006 election cycle and compare it to where we stand today.

At this point in 2005, Republicans were dealing with nine open seats of an eventual total of twenty.  Interestingly, only two of these nine were straight-up retirements, whereas the bulk of these early announcements were made by House members seeking a promotion to a statewide office.  While the rumors and speculation are rampant, only five Republicans have announced retirements this year:

However, of these five, four are “straight-up” retirements, while the fifth (Duncan Hunter) may as well be, too.  Additionally, retirements by Rick Renzi (AZ-01) and Ralph Regula (OH-16) seem all but official, and many are convinced that Dave Hobson (OH-07) will throw in the towel, as well.  I don’t expect that we’ll see too many Republican House members (if any) bothering to try their hand at statewide races next year, but I do expect, with the shocking retirement announcements of Pryce and Pickering, that many more Republican members will test the winds during the August recess and make similar decisions (if not announcements) around Labor Day.  I believe that this rings especially true when one considers that most the “true” retirements of 2006 (i.e. the desire to end one’s political career) came in the fall/winter of ’05 and ’06.  And in a Presidential cycle, perhaps many potential retirees will feel obligated to give their would-be successors more of an opportunity to build their campaigns before the media cycle is utterly dominated by the top of the ticket.

So who’s next to grab a life preserver and bail?

House 2008: Open Seat Watch (August)

It’s been a little while since we last took stock of all the potential ’08 vacancies in the House of Representatives, but much has changed since our last installment in this series back in April.

Following the format of the previous diaries, I’ve put together two charts: one tracking definite retirements and the other potential retirements, resignations, and primary defeates, listing each district by its incumbent, PVI, and the representative’s age on election day in 2008.

Definite House Retirements








District Incumbent Party PVI Age Notes
CA-52 Hunter R R+9.3 60 Running for President
CO-02 Udall D D+8.1 58 Running for Senate
IL-04 Gutierrez D D+30.7 54 Retiring
IL-18 LaHood R R+5.5 62 Retiring
ME-01 Allen D D+6.2 63 Running for Senate

Since last time, we’ve added Democrat Tom Allen of Maine, whose official entry in Maine’s U.S. Senate race back in May allows us to mark his House resignation as definite. We’ve also added Ray LaHood, whose district tilts to the Republicans in Presidential contests. However, in 2006, Democrats picked up seven seats with PVIs redder than IL-18th’s (R+5.5). It should come as no surprise, then, that the DCCC has already begun its recruiting process in the district, and that state Sen. John Sullivan is seriously considering a bid.

Potential House Retirements

















































































































































































































































District Incumbent Party PVI Age Notes
AK-AL Young R R+14.3 75 Under investigation
AL-02 Everett R R+13.2 72 Speculation/Rumors
AZ-01 Renzi R R+2.2 50 Under investigation
CA-04 Doolittle R R+10.9 58 Under investigation
CA-24 Gallegly R R+4.8 64 Botched a retirement attempt in 2006
CA-25 McKeon R R+7.1 70 Speculation
CA-41 Lewis R R+9.0 74 Under investigation
DE-AL Castle R D+6.5 69 Health issues
FL-10 Young R D+1.1 78 Age issues/Speculation
IL-03 Lipinski D D+10.3 42 Primary challenge
IL-14 Hastert R R+4.8 67 Rumors
IL-16 Manzullo R R+4.5 64 Speculation
IN-07 Carson D D+8.7 70 Health issues
IA-03 Boswell D D+1.4 74 Health issues
IA-04 Latham R D+0.4 60 Possible Senate run
IA-05 King R R+8.4 59 Possible Senate run
LA-01 Jindal R R+18.5 37 Running for Governor
LA-02 Jefferson D D+27.8 61 Indicted
LA-06 Baker R R+6.5 60 Possible Senate run
MD-01 Gilchrest R R+9.8 62 Primary challenge
MD-04 Wynn D D+29.8 57 Primary challenge
MD-06 Bartlett R R+12.8 82 Age issues
MI-03 Ehlers R R+9.0 74 Speculation
NC-09 Myrick R R+12.2 67 Speculation
NY-23 McHugh R R+0.2 60 Speculation
OH-02 Schmidt R R+13.1 56 Primary challenge
OH-07 Hobson R R+6.0 56 Rumors
OH-16 Regula R R+3.6 84 Age issues/Speculation
TN-09 Cohen D D+18.1 59 Primary challenge
TX-04 Hall R R+17.1 85 Age issues
VA-01 Davis, JoAnn R R+8.9 58 Rumors/Health issues
VA-11 Davis R R+0.6 59 Possible Senate run
WY-AL Cubin R R+19.4 61 Speculation

A bunch of new names this month: a recent Roll Call article named Reps. McHugh (NY-23) and Manzullo (IL-16) as possible retirements. Both of those districts–but McHugh’s R+0.2 district in particular–could see explosive races in an open seat scenario. I’ve also added several incumbents who could conceivably fall victim to primary challenges: Democrats Cohen (TN-09), Lipinski (IL-03), & Wynn (MD-04), and Republicans Gilchrest & Schmidt. Other crumb-bum Republican incumbents on shaky ground may face primaries of their own: Doolittle, Cubin, and Don Young are all ripe candidates who may be forced to smell the glove in a primary next year.

Any other retirement rumors floating through the tubes?

House 2008: Open Seat Watch (April)

Another month, another opportunity to pause and take stock of all the potential retirements by some of the sun-ravaged mummy husks currently occupying the House of Representatives. Like last time, I’ve put together two charts: one tracking definite retirements and the other potential retirements, listing each district by its incumbent, PVI, and the representative’s age on election day in 2008. With a fresh batch of House retirement speculation straight from Karl “MC” Rove himself, the potential open seat playing field has expanded considerably.

Definite House Retirements

District Incumbent Party PVI Age Notes
CA-52 Hunter R R+9.3 60 Running for President
CO-02 Udall D D+8.1 58 Running for Senate
IL-04 Gutierrez D D+30.7 54 Retiring

Since last time, there’s been only one addition to the definite list of retirements (Hunter), and one subtraction: an astute reader sent us this Roll Call link from last December, which indicates that Elton Gallegly is intending to run again in 2008. Still, he was marked by Rove as a potential retirement in the GSA Powerpoint, so he won’t be going from our other watchlist anytime soon:

Potential House Retirements
























































































































































































District Incumbent Party PVI Age Notes
AK-AL Young R R+14.3 75 Speculation*
AL-02 Everett R R+13.2 72 Speculation/Rumors
CA-24 Gallegly R R+4.8 64 Botched a retirement attempt in 2006*
CA-25 McKeon R R+7.1 70 Speculation*
CA-41 Lewis R R+9.0 74 Speculation*
DE-AL Castle R D+6.5 69 Health issues*
FL-10 Young R D+1.1 78 Age issues/Speculation*
IL-14 Hastert R R+4.8 67 Hastert issues*
IN-07 Carson D D+8.7 70 Health issues
IA-03 Boswell D D+1.4 74 Health issues
IA-04 Latham R D+0.4 60 Possible Senate run
IA-05 King R R+8.4 59 Possible Senate run
LA-01 Jindal R R+18.5 37 Running for Governor*
LA-06 Baker R R+6.5 60 Possible Senate run
MD-06 Bartlett R R+12.8 82 Age issues*
ME-01 Allen D D+6.2 63 Likely Senate run
MI-03 Ehlers R R+9.0 74 Speculation*
MI-09 Knollenberg R R+0.1 75 Speculation*
MT-AL Rehberg R R+10.8 53 Possible Senate run
NC-09 Myrick R R+12.2 67 Speculation*
NE-02 Terry R R+9.0 46 Possible Senate run
OH-16 Regula R R+3.6 84 Age issues/Speculation*
TX-04 Hall R R+17.1 85 Age issues
VA-11 Davis R R+0.6 59 Possible Senate run*
WY-AL Cubin R R+19.4 61 Speculation*

All districts marked with an asterisk* were identified as possible open seats in the Rove-generated GSA presentation.

On the face of it, there could potentially be a fair bit of open red turf to play in next year. One district I have my eye on is Richard Baker’s LA-06. While Kerry won only 40% of the vote there in 2004 (and Gore 43% in 2000), the game could potentially be quite different in 2008. Baton Rouge, the population center of this district, absorbed between 50,000 to 100,000 Hurricane Katrina and Rita refugees from New Orleans since 2005. You can bet that Sen. Mary Landrieu will be mining all of the displaced (and presumably Democratic) voters she can in her re-election bid next year; a strong Democratic House challenger would be well-placed to ride on those coattails. Throw an open seat into the mix, and things could get very, very interesting.

House 2008: Open Seat Watch (March)

It goes without saying that the wave election of last November was an extremely rare spectacle in modern politics–going beyond a mere “six year itch” that Ken Mehlman and friends would like you to believe. Due to the deeply fortified structural advantages that Republican incumbents had going into the 2006 cycle (a limited number of competitive seats due to shrewd gerrymandering, the standard powers of incumbency that were as salient as ever, etc), the intensity of this “wave” is rivaled only by that of 1994’s Republican coup. With that in mind, it’s worth noting what usually happens in the cycle after wave years. From the Hotline archives:

1974: +49D

1976: +1D



1980: +34R

1982: +26D



1994: +52R

1996: +3D

Waves don’t come in pairs for the same party–at least not historically. I suppose, however, that if the GOP managed to nominate a McCain-esque Iraq War cheerleader, it would almost make a second mini-wave (a ripple?) possible. But that’s a hypothetical that we shouldn’t count on at this point.

The point is: we have a number of potentially vulnerable House freshmen and even a few incumbents who probably will lose in 2008. We should get used to this idea, even as we fight our hardest to prevent it from happening. Where do we make up for it? Of course, judiciously targeting vulnerable Republican incumbents (think MI-07’s Club For Growth stooge Tim Walberg, for example) and scandal-plagued members in tippable districts (PA-18’s Tim Murphy would make a good target). The other thing we have to hope for is a strong crop of open seats left vacant by retiring Republicans in winnable districts.

So far, the open seat picture is largely speculative at this point, but I’ve made an attempt to track the number of definite and potential vacancies up for grabs in 2008. The first chart tracks definite retirements, listing each district by its incumbent, PVI, and their age on election day in 2008.

Definite House Retirements





























District Incumbent PVI Age Notes
CA-24 Gallegly (R) R+4.8 64 Botched a retirement attempt in 2006
CO-02 Udall (D) D+8.1 58 Running for Senate
IL-04 Gutierrez (D) D+30.7 54 Retiring

Obviously, that’s a pretty small list at this point, as I’ve restricted it to only confirmed retirements (Gallegly has stated that this term will be his last). This list will grow considerably. There are lots of reasons for retirement: age, health issues, depression due to being in the minority, scandals, vacating the seat to pursue other career aspirations, etc. I’ve done a little bit of research into this question and have come up with a shortlist of potential retirements in districts with a PVI of less than R/D+10 (unless district history leaves me compelled to bend the rules). I could have compiled an extremely thorough list detailing including all of the members with advanced age issues (and let’s face it, we have more than our share of cryptkeepers in Congress), but I think this would be better focused on vacancies with the potential to tip the political balance. Here’s what I’ve come up with so far (and remember, just in case there’s any confusion, “age” here means age on election day, 2008):

Potential House Retirements










































































































District Incumbent PVI Age Notes
DE-AL Castle (R) D+6.5 69 Health issues
FL-10 Young (R) D+1.1 78 Speculation/age issues
IL-14 Hastert (R) R+4.8 67 Hastert issues
IN-07 Carson (D) D+8.7 70 Health issues
IA-03 Boswell (D) D+1.4 74 Health issues
IA-04 Latham (R) D+0.4 60 Possible Senate run
IA-05 King (R) R+8.4 59 Possible Senate run
LA-06 Baker (R) R+6.5 60 Possible Senate run
ME-01 Allen (D) D+6.2 63 Likely Senate run
MI-09 Knollenberg (R) R+0.1 75 Speculation
MT-AL Rehberg (R) R+10.8 53 Possible Senate run
NE-02 Terry (R) R+9.0 46 Possible Senate run
OH-16 Regula (R) R+3.6 84 Age issues/Speculation
VA-11 Davis (R) R+0.6 59 Possible Senate run

This is by no means a complete list. There could very well be some left-field retirements that leave both parties scrambling to put up viable candidates, and I haven’t taken into consideration the potentiality of scandal-induced retirements. Additionally, maybe there have been some retirement rumblings surrounding incumbents in swing districts that I haven’t heard about. So, I invite you to join the discussion in the comments. Who do you think is likely to retire in 2008?

On the face of it, I’d say that the potential open seat picture favors Team Blue more than it does Team Red.