Mason-Dixon for Sayfie Review/PowerPlay (3/30-4/1, registered voters):
Alex Sink (D): 35
Bill McCollum (R): 36
(MoE: ±4%)
It seems like not that long ago we were looking at a potential Florida senate race between CFO Alex Sink and AG Bill McCollum. With Gov. Charlie Crist sounding more and more like he’s moving to switch over to the Senate, causing the lower ranks on Florida’s political totem pole to gravitate over to the governor’s race, we may now be looking at a Sink/McCollum FL-Gov race instead, and that’s what Mason-Dixon just polled. (In fact, if those numbers look vaguely familiar to you, it’s because Quinnipiac did a head-to-head poll of a Sink/McCollum FL-Sen matchup in mid-January, and that poll also found McCollum 36, Sink 35!)
Mason-Dixon didn’t poll head-to-heads on a Crist-centered Senate race (either GOP primary or general). However, they did ask whether voters would “consider” voting for him, for which the answers were 17% definitely, 50% consider, and 26% definitely not. There is one note of caution for Crist here, though: he gets an 18% “definitely not” from Republicans (compared with a 35% “definitely not” from Democrats). That could point to a very competitive primary with a more orthodox conservative opponent. With former House speaker Marco Rubio intent on staying in the race and highlighting Crist’s stimulus-loving ways, it seems likely Rubio will be that opponent.
All things being equal I think Sink would beat him by something in the area of 53-46.
I really, really want that Senate seat. While we’re pretty much guaranteed at this point to hit 60 Senators in 2010 (even if we lose Dodd, we are heavily favored in New Hampshire, and will probably win at least a couple out of Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina, and Kentucky), as long as we’ve got clowns like Pryor and Landrieu slowing us down, we’re going to need a few more to ensure they aren’t tempted to join GOP filibusters. If we could get up to 64 seats (actually a very realistic goal), I think it would be kind of a critical mass where bills will just start passing and our conservative senators will find themselves unable to really slow down legislation.
That said, if Crist is still governor in 2012 we are going to get screwed majorly in Florida redistricting. Might literally be the difference between picking up several congressional seats or losing a few.