She Gerrymanders With Her Own Wings: Redistricting Oregon

I lived in Oregon from 2006 to 2007 and still have ties to the state. I’ve been wanting to do an Oregon redistricting post for some time, but never quite got around to it. As there’s been a lot of call for one around these parts lately, though, I decided to try my hand. Here’s what I came up with:

Much more over the flip…

Methodology

I started by calculating the 2010 population of each county, as well as certain specific zip codes (especially in Portland). (As CDP’s are such an incredible pain to tally, zip codes are the way to go when splitting counties). From this, I determined that Oregon would most likely pick up a sixth seat as projected by the Census Bureau, with an estimated population of about 3,904,079. Assuming an even number of people in every district as with the 2002 map, the above number divided by 5 is 780,816 – way too many for one district. Divided by 6, however, it yields a very comfortable 650,680. I therefore decided to use this number as a population goal for each district. I then used dKos’s nifty electoral scoreboard tool to calculate new, post-2008 PVIs at the county level.

The good news is that Oregon is definitely trending our way, and with the Dems likely to still be in control of the redistricting trifecta, we’re going to end up with a pretty good map here. As Texas-style spaghetti gerrymandering is frowned upon and I otherwise didn’t have enough solidly Democratic population to make five safe D districts, I focused on incumbent protection first, while trying to make the extra district as swingy as possible.

The Districts

OR-01 (incumbent David Wu, D):

County	Pop. In District	% In District	O	M	K	B	PVI
Clackamas	1,300	.03%	54	44	49	50	D +1
Multnomah	87,677	12%	77	21	72	27	D +24
Washington	561,703	100%	60	38	53	47	D +7

This district more than any other resembles its old form, only much more compressed to account for Washington County’s 17.3% growth between 2000 and 2007. This OR-01 is still based in the west Portland suburbs, including all of Washington County. The major difference is that it’s had to lose all of the exburban and coastal areas of the old district, and instead picks up more of the city itself. While the old district only extended far enough into the city to conveniently incorporate the neighborhood of a certain Representative David Wu, this district includes all of Portland’s southwest corner up to the Columbia River, including the outlying gentrified areas bordering Washington County, inward to the downtown core. I also put in most of Lloyd Center from just across the river to make my totals even, and added the tiny (and statistically negligible) bit of the city of Tualatin that’s technically in Clackamas County.

Overall, this already safe district picks up even more friendly territory. As an added bonus, there’s basically no GOP bench here at all. I could only find three current Republican officeholders in the whole of Washington County, and they’d all be hard-pressed to get over 40% in a general election. By contrast, the Democratic bench in addition to Wu is ridiculously strong, including State Senate Majority Leader Richard Devlin, State House Majority Leader Mary Nolan, State Rep. David Edwards, 8 other state legislators, and pretty much anyone else who wants to run as a Democrat. I would hope that one of them would primary the frankly unimpressive Wu, but unfortunately that probably won’t happen Either way, Wu is now completely safe from the already improbable chance of losing his seat to a Republican, and if Wu can hold this seat as is, his almost certainly more competent successor will be even safer. Safe D.

OR-02 (incumbent Earl Blumenauer, D):

County	Pop. In District	% In District	O	M	K	B	PVI
Clackamas	116,118	29%	54	44	49	50	D +1
Multnomah	432,534	60%	77	21	72	27	D +24
Yamhill	102,028	100%	48	49	42	57	R +6

Like the old OR-03 on which it’s based, this district’s core is in Portland, encompassing most of the city not in Wu’s district. The 2002 Republican gerrymander packed as much Democratic territory into this district as possible in a failed attempt to knock off Darlene Hooley. With Hooley’s retirement giving me access to some choice Republican suburbs (including her hometown of West Linn) I took this one in the other direction.

This district retains the north side of Portland and all of the east side except for a couple of neighborhoods on the Gresham line. It then leaves the rest of Multnomah County to Schrader, and dips down to vacuum up all of Clackamas County west/north of I-205. This includes some reliably Democratic areas (Milwaukie, Gladstone), but it also incorporates the wealthy, extremely Republican towns of West Linn and Lake Oswego. From there, I went southwest to the less Republican but still pretty annoying suburb of Wilsonville, then finished up with all of exburban, R +6 Yamhill County. Overall, I’ve created a district that will be Democratic enough to keep electing Blumenauer, while diluting Portland’s more Republican suburbs as much as possible.

With the addition of West Linn and Lake Oswego, this district picks up about a third of the old OR-05’s unusually large Republican bench, though the Lake Oswego/West Linn portion of this bench is mostly has-beens. There’s OR-05 loser Jim Zupancic and super-loser Mike Erickson, as well as State Rep. Scott Bruun, who lost the OR-03 Republican primary in 1996 and lost again to Blumenauer two years later. There are only two other Republican state legislators in the entire district, neither of whom is viable. Other than the fact that Lake Oswego and West Linn could spawn any number of self-funding multimillionaire wannabe jerks just like Zupancic and Erickson, there’s really not a lot going on here on the GOP side. By contrast, the Democrats have 10 state legislators alone, and, of course, House Transportation Committee Chair Blumenauer – now the most powerful member of the Oregon delegation – isn’t going anywhere. Safe D

OR-03 (incumbent Kurt Schrader, D):

County	Pop. In District	% In District	O	M	K	B	PVI
Clackamas	276,893	71%	54	44	49	50	D +1
Hood River	21,424	100%	64	33	57	42	D +10
Marion	101,191	31%	50	47	45	54	R +2
Multnomah	200,721	28%	77	21	72	27	D +24
Polk	26,490	32%	48	49	44	55	R +4
Wasco	23691	100%	52	45	48	51	R +0

Of course, this district needed a complete redrawing, partially due to 2002 Republican mischief and partially due to the legislative consensus in 1983 that it was supposed to elect a Republican. With the Oregon GOP out of power and West Linn resident Darlene Hooley gone, this district can become a whole lot safer to protect Schrader.

The new district remains centered in Clackamas County and the eastern Portland suburbs, only without Lake Oswego, West Linn, and Wilsonville to weigh it down. It instead picks up the remainder of Portland, as well as Gresham, Troutdale, and the rest of eastern Multnomah County. It continues east along the Columbia River to take in solidly Democratic Hood River and R +0 Wasco counties, and also goes south to include most of upper Marion county down to Salem, as well as the West Salem neighborhood of Polk County. Overall, this is much friendlier territory than Hooley was used to representing. With Hood River and the bluest part of D +24 Multnomah counties compensating for Schrader’s lack of seniority and with Clackamas and Wasco counties rapidly bluing, there’s plenty of room to grow here.

This all, of course, is assuming that Schrader doesn’t lose his current, much less favorable district in 2010 (and really, if he does an even halfway decent job, he’ll be fine). Should Schrader be defeated, however, the Democratic bench in this new district is strong, including State Senate President Peter Courtney, Deputy Senate President Laurie Monnes Anderson, Senate President Pro Tem Rick Metsger, and House Speaker Dave Hunt, as well as seven other viable legislators (not counting Schrader’s wife). The GOP also isn’t short on potential candidates, including State Senators Vicki Berger, Vic Gilliam, Bill Kennemer, and Kim Thatcher, as well as disgraced former House Republican leader Wayne Scott and even more disgraced former Speaker Karen Minnis. The good news is that while almost all of them (except for Minnis and maybe Scott) would’ve been viable in the old OR-05, none of them have any special qualities that make them particularly likely to be elected in this new, more Democratic district. We can chalk this one up for Team Blue. Safe D

OR-04 (new district, no incumbent):

County	Pop. In District	% In District	O	M	K	B	PVI
Benton	81,917	100%	64	33	58	41	D +10
Clatsop	39,979	100%	58	39	55	44	D +6
Columbia	51,642	100%	54	42	51	48	D +3
Jefferson	10088	47%	44	53	40	59	R +8
Lincoln	45491	100%	60	37	57	42	D +8
Linn	118021	100%	43	54	38	60	R +9
Marion	222405	69%	50	47	45	54	R +2
Polk	55,549	68%	48	49	44	55	R +4
Tillamook	25,138	100%	53	43	49	50	D +0

Having accomplished my goal of making all three Portland-area districts Safe D, and wanting to keep Lane County (Eugene) whole to shore up Peter DeFazio, there wasn’t a lot of friendly territory left that wasn’t spoken for. I had to start with a major population center, and chose R +2 Salem, which is growing so quickly that it’s temporarily surpassed Eugene as the state’s second-largest city several times in the last decade. The problem is that, while modestly Republican on paper, in practice Salem is the crazy fundie capital of Oregon. I therefore decided to pit the fundies against a different segment of the GOP base by drawing in R +9 Linn County (Albany) to get it away from DeFazio. With these two population centers established, I packed in every bit of Democratic territory that wasn’t already spoken for, including the coastal Lincoln and Clatsop counties, the D-leaning Portland exburbs of Columbia County, and Benton County, home of Oregon State University. I also grabbed some of rural, R +8 Jefferson County to the east to meet my population quota.

This district on paper looks like it will elect a Republican, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it did at first. The Republican bench here is strong, including State Senators Brian Boquist, Fred Girod and Jackie Winters, as well as five other Republican state legislators. It also includes Oregon fundie leader and perennial political loser Kevin Mannix, last seen kneecapping Mike Erickson in the 2008 OR-05 primary. As the Oregon GOP is at its lowest point since 1864, a brand new, Republican-leaning Congressional seat is going to cause every kook in the district to throw their hats in at once. My hope is that, with so much desperation to advance their careers and with Mannix and his network of loyal sheep followers kneecapping everyone else, the GOP candidates will all annihilate each other. Meanwhile, though the Democratic bench in this district is very sparse, one name that stands out is State Rep. Brian Clem. Clem represents Salem, giving him instant name-rec with most of the district’s swing voters. He’s young, relatively progressive, grew up in a Republican town, and seems pretty likeable, giving him lots of crossover appeal. He’s the only viable Dem I could find here, but, on the bright side, if he runs he’s probably got the primary field to himself while the GOP candidates all nuke each other. Lean R for now, but circumstances might make this a D seat anyway.

OR-05 (incumbent Peter DeFazio, D):

County	Pop. In District	% In District	O	M	K	B	PVI
Coos	63,600	100%	47	50	43	55	R +4
Curry	21767	100%	42	54	41	58	R +8
Deschutes	175592	100%	49	49	42	57	R +4
Douglas	5,000	5%	38	58	33	66	R +14
Jackson	29369	14%	49	49	44	56	R +4
Josephine	3,000	4%	41	55	36	63	R +10
Lane	352,868	100%	62	35	48	44	D +9

Though the 2002 Republican gerrymander was, of course, worst in Schrader’s district, the legislature also made a pretty obvious effort to screw DeFazio by packing in more Republican territory here while swapping out some D/swing territory into Walden’s district. Though the joke was, again, on them, DeFazio won’t be around forever (he’s currently thinking about running for Governor), and the current district will be hard for any Democratic successor to hold. I decided to soften it up as much as I could with the friendly/swing territory I had left under the assumption that, after waiting 20 years for his subcommittee gavel, DeFazio will stay in Congress.

This district has two population centers – Lane County, which remains in its entirety, and Deschutes County, which comes in from Walden’s old district. At D +9 and accounting for over half of the district’s population, Lane County is the obvious place to start. Deschutes County, meanwhile, is the fastest growing county in the state, having expanded a whopping 33% between 2000 and 2007. This is because Bend has become a trendy resort/retirement town and is filling up with liberals – mostly Portland transplants who bring their politics with them – faster than you can say “gerrymander”. In just four years, Deschutes County went from 57-42 Bush to 49-49 McCain, and will probably be narrowly blue by 2013 if the current trend holds. Not putting it into this district would be nuts.

With the base established, the rest of the district was pretty much just filler, focusing on drawing in the least unfriendly territory that I could. While the old district incorporated all of R +14 Douglas County, this one follows Highway 101 through a tiny, sparsely populated sliver to get to much friendlier R +4 Coos County. Continuing along 101, the district picks up R +8 but small Curry County. It then runs parallel to the California border, picking up another sparsely populated part of R +10 Josephine County to get to Ashland, the last liberal town in the entire state left unaccounted for. Going north, I finished up by taking the remainder of my quota from Republican-leaning Medford, the only place in this part of the state with any notable population at all.

Overall, the Democratic bench in this district is strong, though disproportionately concentrated in Eugene. (Due to its reputation as a hippie bastion, most Eugene legislators would be DOA trying to appeal to the retirees and timber workers who make up the rest of the district’s population.) The strongest contender for a vacancy that I found would probably be House Speaker pro tem Arnie Roblan from Coos Bay, who has DeFazio’s populist bona fides but is unlikely to want to move up. Rep. Chris Edwards of Eugene is more of a wildcard and will have a harder time selling himself, but he’s young enough to be ambitious and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran for higher office at some point. Also in the district are eight other Democratic State Reps. and six State Senators. By contrast, there are only two Republican legislators in the entire new district, neither of whom seems to be particularly distinguished. As drawn here, this seat will remain Democratic indefinitely. Safe D.

OR-06 (no incumbent, formerly Greg Walden, R):

County	Pop. In District	% In District	O	M	K	B	PVI
Baker	14,809	100%	32	64	29	70	R +19
Crook	24830	100%	35	62	30	68	R +17
Douglas	5,000	95%	38	58	33	66	R +14
Gilliam	1605	100%	39	58	33	67	R +19
Grant	6510	100%	26	71	19	79	R +27
Harney	6442	100%	26	70	23	76	R +25
Jackson	178296	86%	49	49	44	56	R +4
Jefferson	11406	53%	44	53	40	59	R +8
Josephine	80,488	96%	41	55	36	63	R +10
Klamath	66911	100%	32	65	26	72	R +20
Lake	7233	100%	26	72	21	78	R +27
Malehur	30,948	100%	28	69	24	75	R +24
Morrow	11669	100%	35	62	33	66	R +16
Sherman	1586	100%	37	61	35	63	R +16
Umatilla	74,814	100%	37	60	34	65	R +14
Union	25,644	100%	37	60	33	66	R +15
Wallowa	6577	100%	33	64	33	66	R +14
Wheeler	1338	100%	25	61	28	70	R +17

The token Republican super-district based on the old OR-02, this district packs in everything that’s left. Naturally, it’s as Republican as they come, with an estimated PVI of about R +18. Note that my population totals here are slightly off, but as it’s only by 652 and re-checking my math several times (even adjusting by 652) yielded the same result, I decided not to worry about it, as I’m not getting paid for this.

You’ll also notice that I don’t list Greg Walden as the incumbent, as he would be ineligible to run in this district. Why? Walden lives in Hood River, which I put into Schrader’s district. Why the Congressman for Oregon’s sole Republican district lives in one of the most Democratic counties in the state I have no idea, but frankly, I didn’t think there was much point in wasting a D +10 county here when it could be better used to help Schrader. Meanwhile, Walden has been chafing in the minority and has actively expressed interest in running for Governor. If he goes that route in 2010, his successor will most certainly be from somewhere that’s still in this district. Even if he sticks around in 2010, he’ll probably find something else to do by 2012. Either way, I’m assuming no Walden by then because his staying put royally screws up my map.

Of course, with or without Walden, this district will still elect a Republican. Its bench of viable GOP candidates is absolutely huge, including Senate Minority Leader Ted Ferroli, House Minority Leader Bruce Hanna, and State Senator and perennial nutjob candidate Jason Atkinson. The district is also the home of 3 other GOP State Senators and 9 other State Representatives, any of whom could want a promotion. Finally, former US Senator Gordon Smith also lives here. Smith, of course, is most likely saving himself for his 2014 grudge match against Jeff Merkley, but has the gravitas to play kingmaker in this race if he wants to. For all of his troubles in the rest of the state, eastern Oregon still loves them some Gordo, and whoever he gives his backing to will probably win the primary. Either that, or he runs for the seat himself, wins in a landslide, and keeps it for life, along with automatically becoming the most senior freshman Republican in his class thanks to his 12 years in the Senate. The good news is that either way, Smith is likely to help either himself or one of his golfing buddies over an anti-establishment nut like Atkinson. Where “more and better Democrats” just isn’t possible, saner Republicans will have to do. Smith’s crowd may be sleazy and disingenuous, but at least they’re not insane. Safe R

Conclusion

Overall, I think almost everyone can be happy with this map. Democrats will be happy with the new 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th districts. If Republicans can get over losing all hope at ever knocking off Schrader, they’ll get a brand new, much more favorable district with a strong GOP bench to the south, though it will also come with a built-in Kevin Mannix, and will only be Republican for the next decade or so. Bend and Ashland will be happy because they no longer have to be represented by a Republican, while Albany and most of Salem will be happy because they’re likely to be represented by someone more conservative. The biggest losers from this map are West Linn and Lake Oswego, which are increasingly drowning in a sea of blue. Given my personal experience with most of the people who live in those towns, I’m hardly sympathetic. Meanwhile, the only Democrats who might be missing out are the solidly Democratic but sparsely populated coastal regions, which may very well end up saddled with some awful Republican from Albany or Salem. On the other hand, they could still end up with a Democrat if the GOP candidates all nuke each other, and they wouldn’t be Republicans if they didn’t.

I think that in keeping with my knowledge of Oregon and realistic political and geographical considerations, this is a good map that accomplished everything I set out to do. If I’m unhappy with one district, it’s the new OR-04, mostly because it includes Linn County. If I were going tweak this again, I might try including all of Jefferson County in OR-04, swapping out parts of southern Linn County into OR-05, and leaving the entire city of Medford to OR-06; either way, though, it wouldn’t make much of a difference in PVI, so I haven’t tried it here.

If you’ve made it through the whole of this (incredibly long) post, feel free to offer feedback.