With the release of the new registration numbers, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts. The Secretary of State’s website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each districts.
I am also tacking on the eight districts that are our top targets in 2010: CA-03, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-44, CA-45, CA-48, and CA-50.
Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California.
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| CA-03 |
Dan Lungren |
37.72% |
39.63% |
R+1.91 |
O+0.5 |
| CA-24 |
Elton Gallegly |
35.84% |
41.88% |
R+6.04 |
O+2.8 |
| CA-25 |
Buck McKeon |
37.72% |
39.35% |
R+1.63 |
O+1.1 |
| CA-26 |
David Dreier |
35.64% |
40.56% |
R+4.92 |
O+4.0 |
| CA-44 |
Ken Calvert |
34.70% |
42.38% |
R+7.68 |
O+0.9 |
| CA-45 |
Mary Bono Mack |
37.97% |
41.96% |
R+3.99 |
O+4.6 |
| CA-48 |
John Campbell |
29.41% |
44.87% |
R+15.46 |
O+0.7 |
| CA-50 |
Brian Bilbray |
31.38% |
40.36% |
R+8.98 |
O+4.2 |
Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip…
Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.
SENATE
Republicans (4)
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| SD-04 |
Sam Aanestad |
33.05% |
44.10% |
R+11.05 |
M+11.8 |
| SD-12 |
Jeff Denham |
47.46% |
33.09% |
D+14.37 |
O+17.6 |
| SD-18 |
Roy Ashburn |
31.91% |
47.58% |
R+15.67 |
M+23.1 |
| SD-36 |
Dennis Hollingsworth |
28.94% |
46.13% |
R+17.19 |
M+14.2 |
Democrats (5)
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| SD-16 |
Dean Florez |
49.61% |
33.15% |
D+16.46 |
O+19.5 |
| SD-22 |
Gilbert Cedillo |
58.98% |
14.74% |
D+44.24 |
O+58.7 |
| SD-24 |
Gloria Romero |
53.62% |
21.13% |
D+32.49 |
O+41.3 |
| SD-34 |
Lou Correa |
42.82% |
33.58% |
D+9.24 |
O+16.8 |
| SD-40 |
Denise Ducheny |
46.59% |
29.65% |
D+16.94 |
O+25.7 |
ASSEMBLY
Republicans (16)
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| AD-03 |
Dan Logue |
34.81% |
40.15% |
R+5.34 |
M+1.6 |
| AD-05 |
Roger Niello |
37.93% |
38.80% |
R+0.87 |
O+4.2 |
| AD-25 |
Tom Berryhill |
36.84% |
42.30% |
R+5.46 |
M+7.9 |
| AD-26 |
Bill Berryhill |
42.04% |
39.22% |
D+2.82 |
O+4.4 |
| AD-30 |
Danny Gilmore |
46.31% |
36.66% |
D+9.65 |
O+3.9 |
| AD-33 |
Sam Blakeslee |
35.91% |
40.77% |
R+4.86 |
O+1.4 |
| AD-36 |
Steve Knight |
39.56% |
38.65% |
D+0.91 |
O+0.8 |
| AD-37 |
Audra Strickland |
35.86% |
41.40% |
R+5.54 |
O+3.7 |
| AD-38 |
Cameron Smyth |
36.84% |
40.02% |
R+3.18 |
O+4.9 |
| AD-63 |
Bill Emmerson |
37.90% |
40.35% |
R+2.45 |
O+4.1 |
| AD-64 |
Brian Nestande |
36.11% |
41.83% |
R+5.72 |
O+1.8 |
| AD-65 |
Paul Cook |
37.14% |
41.08% |
R+3.94 |
M+4.1 |
| AD-68 |
Van Tran |
32.82% |
41.25% |
R+8.43 |
M+2.9 |
| AD-70 |
Chuck DeVore |
30.19% |
43.49% |
R+13.30 |
O+3.9 |
| AD-74 |
Martin Garrick |
30.89% |
41.68% |
R+10.79 |
O+2.2 |
| AD-75 |
Nathan Fletcher |
30.71% |
39.88% |
R+9.17 |
O+4.1 |
Democrats (15)
| District |
Incumbent |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Result |
| AD-07 |
Noreen Evans |
52.81% |
23.72% |
D+29.09 |
O+43.3 |
| AD-09 |
Dave Jones |
56.64% |
18.71% |
D+37.93 |
O+49.0 |
| AD-10 |
Alyson Huber |
39.32% |
39.39% |
R+0.07 |
O+4.0 |
| AD-11 |
Tom Torlakson |
54.23% |
22.06% |
D+32.17 |
O+41.2 |
| AD-15 |
Joan Buchanan |
40.60% |
36.09% |
D+4.51 |
O+16.9 |
| AD-20 |
Alberto Torrico |
48.65% |
20.17% |
D+18.48 |
O+42.3 |
| AD-21 |
Ira Ruskin |
47.22% |
26.83% |
D+20.39 |
O+45.8 |
| AD-23 |
Joe Coto |
51.28% |
18.96% |
D+32.32 |
O+44.4 |
| AD-31 |
Juan Arambula |
49.07% |
33.84% |
D+15.23 |
O+26.1 |
| AD-35 |
Pedro Nava |
48.24% |
27.95% |
D+20.29 |
O+35.6 |
| AD-47 |
Karen Bass |
64.93% |
11.27% |
D+53.66 |
O+71.9 |
| AD-50 |
Hector De La Torre |
61.92% |
16.21% |
D+45.71 |
O+55.9 |
| AD-76 |
Lori Saldaña |
41.96% |
26.89% |
D+15.07 |
O+34.4 |
| AD-78 |
Martin Block |
43.09% |
31.54% |
D+11.55 |
O+21.8 |
| AD-80 |
Manuel Perez |
45.33% |
36.49% |
D+8.84 |
O+20.7 |
In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:
(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70
(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75
(III) Open seat in McCain district with small (<6%) registration edge: 25
(IV) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65
(V) Other open seat: 68
Yes, Huber and, to some extent, Buchanan, need a little defense, but that seems to be it. Do you see this rapid blueing as a one-shot deal or something we can build on. It would be amazing to reach two-thirds in both chambers so we can actually see, y’know, a budget. On a federal note, could we redistrict down the GOP members so that there might be as few as 14 or 15 of them. There seem to be ways of concentrating the worst parts of Campbell, Calvert, Gary Miller, and Rohrabacher’s districts into one nasty Orange County mess. Ditto Issa and Hunter in San Diego. Maybe another vote-sink in Orange-East San Bernadino. A district that separated the populous LA-suburbs of the 25th from it’s eastern growth and lumped the latter in with McCarthy, Radanoich, or Nunes might be nice too (McCarthy would give up his western territory too). That leaves about two up north.