PPP (pdf) (4/17-19, registered voters):
Michael Bennet (D-inc): 42
Bob Beauprez (R): 43Michael Bennet (D-inc): 39
Ryan Frazier (R): 35Michael Bennet (D-inc): 40
Ken Buck (R): 36Michael Bennet (D-inc): 41
Josh Penry (R): 34
(MoE: ±3%)
This is the second time PPP has examined the fortunes of Colorado’s appointed senator Michael Bennet. Bennet’s approvals are down in net negative territory, at 34/41 (with a large 25% not sure). PPP also polled Bennet in January, and Bennet isn’t making much headway at winning friends and influencing people: his favorable/unfavorable was 33/21 then, so most people who’ve formed an opinion since then have formed a negative opinion. It’ll be interesting to see whether the charisma-challenged Bennet can improve his standing, and what happens if he doesn’t. The real race to watch (and one I hope PPP polls next time) is a possible Democratic primary: former state house speaker Andrew Romanoff, who wanted the appointment and has weighed a challenge, has to be encouraged by these numbers to start testing the waters.
PPP also tried out some head-to-heads. There aren’t any trendlines from the previous poll, though, as none of the four guys PPP polled in January have taken any steps to run, and a new, lesser set of contenders has taken their place: Aurora city councilor Ryan Frazier is officially in, while Weld County DA Ken Buck is likely to enter and ex-Rep. Bob Beauprez has at least made some noises. (State senate minority leader Josh Penry is more associated with the governor’s race, but it’s possible he may jump over to senate if he wants to avoid an awkward primary clash with his former boss, ex-Rep. Scott McInnis.) Beauprez can’t really be seen as lesser, I suppose, considering he’s just as well-known as Bennet, if just as little-liked; his favorability is 33-43. At any rate, Bennet is in a dead heat with the somewhat-well-known Beauprez (who lost the 2006 governor’s race), while the others seem to operate as “generic R” and lose to Bennet by a not-so-comfortable margin. (Discussion underway in conspiracy‘s diary.)
And I do not like the way Bennet has acted in the Senate so far. I’d like to see the potential primary race polled.
Gillibrand west. Isn’t Andrew Romanoff thinking of primarying him? I sure hope he does.
For some reason I’m not feeling all that worried about this one. Bennet is tied or ahead against all of the potential opponents and he’s not very well known yet. He should be able to seriously outspend any challenger and get his name out there by 2010.
Maybe Ritter should have appointed Gary Hart to the seat at ;east he has a record and he could have just been a place holder. Of course I’m not sure how well that would have gone over with Colorado citizens after the incidents on his boat and what not.
To tell you the truth I didn’t think the Salazar appointment made much political sense. Obama needs to become more partisan in that area. He and Salazar are probably good buddies and I’m not saying Salazar is going to make a bad Interior Secretary either, I think he’s a fine public servant.
38% R, 36% D, 26% I. That’s not even close to the true partisan breakdown of the state, where I’s have a clear advantage and D’s and R’s are fairly similar in number.
They’re not beating Bennet with any of those candidates. That said, we could have really done with a better appointment here.
And they have been reading the state pretty well in the four years I’ve been reading them. They’ve been calling the statewide, congressional, and legislative races accurately and early almost that whole time.
Now, the diarist they promoted over there also thinks robo-polls are bullshit, which I don’t think anyone over here believes. But when I want to see how Bennet is doing, I look over there. And they see a weak-ass GOP field, a Senator who’s pretty good in a town hall, has and will have mega-bucks, and, again, has no real opponent. The GOP won’t beat something with nothing here, unless 2010 is really really bad for us nationwide.
also shows a 49-45 Obama approval rating and 41-46 Udall approval rating, I think it’s a little off.
Oh, that’s right: Bill Ritter was being a petty sob.
…I would definitely be calling Michael Bennet now. These numbers just have to make Romanoff interested, and Bennet isn’t going to want to face a full court press from SEIU in the primary.