Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/18-20, likely voters, early April in parens):
Terry McAuliffe (D): 36 (19)
Brian Moran (D): 22 (24)
Creigh Deeds (D): 13 (16)
Undecided: 29 (41)
(MoE: 5%)
Public Policy Polling (PDF) (5/19-21, likely voters, early May in parens):
Terry McAuliffe (D): 29 (30)
Brian Moran (D): 20 (20)
Creigh Deeds (D): 20 (14)
Undecided: 31 (36)
(MoE: 3.9%)
Despite what you see here, PPP and R2K actually showed similar surges for McAuliffe – it’s just that PPP has polled more frequently. If you go back to their late March survey, the numbers are very similar to R2K’s. The biggest difference between the newest polls is that PPP, like SUSA, shows Deeds – who was just endorsed by the Washington Post – moving up, while R2K has him stagnating.
Even if Deeds does have positive momentum, will it be enough? The primary is just two weeks from today, and this is what all the recent polling looks like:
PPP suggests that McAuliffe is benefitting from the fact that neither Moran nor Deeds has been able to consolidate the support) of people who don’t like T-Mac (they split that group 40-35 in Moran’s favor). Time is running out for either man to break that logjam.
P.S. R2K also tested general election matchups, which you can find here.
Last year’s GOP Senate race was largely decided in a convention where Republicans selected Jim Gilmore causing Tom Davis to drop out of the race. Does this not exist for the Democrats? Or is it only in federal races?
You’d think Virgina Democrats would care a bit more about holding this seat. This is a pretty terrible slate of candidates.
At least McAuliffe will have boatloads of cash, and will not be afraid to go heavy negative on McDonnell. That’s what it’s going to take to beat him at this point. I don’t see African American turnout being all that strong for Terry.
Looks like Terry will win this in a walk and then get crushed in November. Let’s hope Corzine can pick it up.