SSP Daily Digest: 8/17

A very special morning edition of the Daily Digest!

• IA-Sen: The Des Moines Register’s Marc Hansen teases that “a well-known mystery candidate” with “name recognition and money” is “about 75 percent ready to join the race” against deather douchebag GOPer Chuck Grassley. The Politico’s Charles Mahtesian speculates that the mystery candidate could be none other than Dem Rep. Bruce Braley. Color me skeptical.

• IL-10: NRCC recruitment wiz kid Kevin McCarthy parachuted himself into the Chicagoland area on Saturday in order to survey the recruitment progress in race to defend GOP Rep. Mark Kirk’s open seat. He met with a small batch of prospects, including stock market analyst Dick Green, attorney Bill Cadigan (a former staffer for ex-Rep. Jon Porter, who held the 10th District for two decades prior to Kirk), and businessman Bob Dold. Interestingly, that list didn’t include any of the district’s deep bench of Republican state legislators. I’m not sure if we should read that as a tea leaf that state Rep. Beth Coulson may not be serious about running, but it appears that the GOP is preparing for the prospect of defending this seat with a political newcomer.

• IN-03: Talk about taking one for the team. Former Fort Wayne city councilman Tom Hayhurst, an M.D. who gave GOP Rep. Mark Souder the closest shave of his political life in 2006, has filed papers for a rematch in 2010. Hayhurst lost to Souder by a 54-46 margin that year — a pretty impressive showing given the district’s horrid R+14 bent. But after Souder pasted well-funded attorney Mike Montagano in 2008 by 15 points, it’s hard to see how the good doctor has a shot in hell here. Godspeed, sir.

• FL-08: Here’s some good news for frosh Dem Rep. Alan Grayson. Larry Cretul, the Republican Speaker of the Florida House, has decided against challenging the former beardo next year. The GOP still has a number of options here, including state Rep. Stephen Precourt and Orlando Mayor Rich Crotty.

Precourt, for his part, told the St. Petersburg Times that he may be interested in a bid, but sounds supportive of state Sen. Dan Webster, should he choose to run. More from Precourt:

“I am a big fan of Senator Dan Webster, but am keeping my powder dry for now. It seems best to stand back and let Congressman Grayson self destruct for the time being, as he is doing quite a good job of it.”

Precourt may have been referring to Grayson’s legislative priorities, but he could have just as easily been alluding to the congressman’s, uh, relaxed style of speech. During a Netroots Nation panel in Pittsburgh on Friday, Grayson decided to yuk it up by saying his 2008 opponent, GOP Rep. Ric Keller, “did all his hiring at Hooters”. He went on to relate an anecdote about how one of his “more resourceful” supporters posed as a volunteer at his opponent’s campaign headquarters for several days, and reported back that “they spent all their time flying paper clips at each other and watching porn on their computers.”

• MN-Gov: It’s no surprise, but Minnesota House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, a Democrat, formally threw her hat into the extremely crowded gubernatorial race on Thursday.

• MO-04: It looks like longtime Dem Rep. Ike Skelton, who’s been manning the fort for us in this R+14 district since Baby Jesus was riding dinosaurs to school, is going to have an honest-to-God race on his hands in 2010. GOP state Sen. Bill Stouffer, whose district overlaps some of the 4th’s northern counties, filed his statement of candidacy with the FEC last week. Stouffer will face a primary from fundie-flavored ex-state Rep. Vicky Hartzler.

• NC-Sen: With NC SoS Elaine Marshall officially still on the fence, the DSCC isn’t sitting idly by to wait for her decision. Former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker, who lost the 2000 Democratic gubernatorial primary to Mike Easley, says that he’s had conversations with the DSCC and ex-Gov. Jim Hunt about challenging GOP Sen. Richard Burr, and will consider his options. I’d say that Democrats had better lock up either Marshall or Wicker before they realize how ugly 2010 is going to be for Team Blue.

• NV-Sen: Wanna run against Harry Reid (and win)? It really doesn’t appear to be that daunting of a task if you believe the spurt of Republican polls in the past few days. Hot on the heels of a poll showing NV GOP Chair Susan Lowden smacking Reid by an six-point margin, two-time political loser Danny Tarkanian is out with a poll from Chariot, LLC (never heard of ’em) showing him beating Reid by a 50-42 spread.

But before we leave it at that, I just want to briefly touch on this howler from Reno Gazette-Journal reporter Anjeanette Damon:

It was an automated poll, meaning a recorded voice asked respondents to express their preference by pushing a number on their phone. These polls, while inexpensive to run, are not regarded as the most accurate method of obtaining survey results.

Maybe this poll is bunk, but I’m getting pretty tired of journalists who can’t bother to, at the bare minimum, take five minutes to review Nate’s pollster ratings. Or as Tom Jensen recently lamented:

I think there should be a required J School course for all aspiring political journalists on how to truly understand polling, the different methodologies, and the different organizations. I’d put pretty high up on the list that they should learn to look up and analyze the track records of various organizations instead of judging them on hearsay and other subjective criteria.

If only.

• NY-Gov: The Q&Q Polling Factory is out with the n-thousandth poll showing Democratic Gov. David Paterson in comically bad shape. Pitted in a primary against AG Andrew Cuomo, Paterson now loses by a 61-15 margin, down from a 57-20 loss in June. In a general election against Rudy Giuliani, Paterson loses 53-33, while Cuomo leads by 48-39. The numbers scream for themselves.

• PA-05: SSP extends our condolences to the family and friends of Bill Cahir, who was killed while on duty in Afghanistan late last week. Cahir, as you may remember, ran a very respectable campaign for the Democratic nomination in Pennsylvania’s 5th District last year, losing a three-way race to Mark McCracken.

• TX-Gov: In a bit of a let-down for Texas activists, Austin-area state Sen. Kirk Watson, seen as a rising star in the TX Democratic Party, announced on Friday that he’ll be seeking re-election to the state senate rather than entering the gubernatorial primary, which is already populated by the likes of Tom Schieffer and Kinky Friedman.

42 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 8/17”

  1. Montagano, while well-funded and charismatic, was a horrible fit for this district.  He was a 28-year-old attorney in a conservative rural district, which earned him a lot of automatic distrust.  Hayhurst was a far better candidate — a middle-aged doctor who already held office in the district (and the doctor thing will play very well with health care on the docket).

    Hayhurst was the biggest shocker of 2006 — a completely unheralded candidate, ignored by the DCCC, who came reasonably close to pasting Souder.  I’m not saying he’s going to win this cycle, but if the D-trip actually takes him seriously this time, he can put up one hell of a fight.

  2. I’m not excited about Dennis Wicker running against Richard Burr.  Dennis was the NC Lt. Gov from 1993-2001, but he was crushed by Mike Easley in the 2000 Democratic primary for Governor.  During the debates, the moderator would ask the candidates a question, and Wicker would also make a fast, snappy answer, and then he would always state, paraphrasing “going back to hog lagoons, when I become Governor of North Carolina I’m going to eliminate all hog lagoons!”.  Didn’t matter what the subject was about (taxation, social services, etc.), he would always start shouting stuff about hog lagoons.  He came off as a mad, unorthodox candidate, and as a result he was defeated.

    The NC Dems need someone without a lot of baggage.  Wicker has plenty, and Burr would defeat Wicker hands-down.  I love Elaine Marshall, and I hope she runs.  The only problem Elaine has is that she is very low-profile for a Secretary of State who has served for 12+ years.

  3. watched a web video released by KBH. Boy, if all the stuff about Texas in that video was true, that defiantly shatters the myth of Texas being some paradise brought on by conservative governance. Hey do you guys in Texas really have the highest property taxes in the nation? I thought New Jersey had that honor.

  5. I think it is a bit early to be drawing that conclusion.

    Certainly there are scenarios where the mid-terms might turn into a bad Democratic year – if the economy stays weak, if health care doesn’t pass, if the Democratic base is discouraged and the Republican base excited, etc.

    But is not inevitable.

    The biggest question is obviously how the economy is doing – if an authentic recovery is taking hold in 2010, then it will be credited to President Obama and the Democrats.

    Some form of health care is going to pass – it is not going to satisfy people like me on the left, but it will significant enough to be viewed as a historic breakthrough and major Democratic victory.

    The Republicans in Congress will continue to be “the party of no” and could pay the price for standing solidly against the successes of Obama’s progams. (Unlike 1994, when the Republicans actually had a program and message – the “Contract with America” was well suited for the public mood – Boehner and McConnell seem unable to develop such a marketable message.)

    And the extremism of much of the Republican base seems unlikely to abate, but more likely to grow in intensity and ugliness. If so, the chance for a backlash grow significantly (? our version of Nixon’s “silent majority” versus what is perceived as an extreme vocal minority).

    I’m most worried about the Governors — for a lot of reasons there are a lot of vulnerable Democratic  incumbents and open seats. The incumbency factor will hurt if a “throw the bums out” mood takes hold — and surely the current state of the races in Virginia and New Jersey are not a good sign for us.

    But while there are states like Iowa, Kansas, Massachusetts, Michigan, New York (?), Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Wisconsin and Wyoming where we could loose the governor’s seat, there are quite a few Republican seats that are at least equally vulnerable like Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Minnesota, Nevada, Rhode Island, South Carolina (?), Texas (?), and Vermont.

    There are certainly a number of Democrats in the House (a couple of dozen) who came in during the 2006 and 2008 waves and may be vulnerable this election – but they won’t all lose, thanks to the advantages of incumbency and the fact that many of them represent districts where politics is in flux.

    But at the same time that those seats are on the line, we may still flip a number of Republican seats where we have strong recruits —  due to possible incumbent departures (DE-AL, FL-10, FL-12, IL-10, KS-4, and PA-6, incumbents with weaknesses (LA-2, MN 6, SC1) and/or seats where political trends are working in our favor (3 or 4 seats in California, PA 15, WA8).

    Both parties seem to be doing relatively well in terms of candidate recruitment, and we probably won’t see a ton of retirement on either side (except for folks running for higher office). I suspect that, barring a “wave” election for the Republicans, we’ll come close to breaking even, probably losing seats in the single digits.

    And, improbable as it seems, there is even a chance we will hold or increase our margin in the Senate.

    A good case can be made that the Republicans could take Democratic-held Senate seats in a few states ( CT, CO, IL) and possibly  a number of other states where it is unclear if the Republicans will recruit a strong candidate or mount a real challenge (AR, CA (?), DE, NV, ND (only if it is Hoeven), PA,  and  WI).

    But there are at least an equal number of Republican-held seats where we are seriously challenging (KY, LA (Melacon?), MO, NH, and OH)   or where there is some chance we’ll make it a race (FL- but increasingly unlikely as Rubio appears to be fading, IA (Braley?), NC (given Burr’s poll numbers), and TX (in the special election for KBH’s seat).  )

    —

    I’m not whistling past the graveyard  — I fully believe that 2010 could turn out to be an “ugly” year for us… but 15 months out there are far too many variables in play to be sure that is how it is going to play out.  

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