Disagree strongly about Hayhurst

Montagano, while well-funded and charismatic, was a horrible fit for this district.  He was a 28-year-old attorney in a conservative rural district, which earned him a lot of automatic distrust.  Hayhurst was a far better candidate -- a middle-aged doctor who already held office in the district (and the doctor thing will play very well with health care on the docket).

Hayhurst was the biggest shocker of 2006 -- a completely unheralded candidate, ignored by the DCCC, who came reasonably close to pasting Souder.  I'm not saying he's going to win this cycle, but if the D-trip actually takes him seriously this time, he can put up one hell of a fight.

---

by: Nonpartisan @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 08:24:15 AM CDT

I think had Hayhurst ran last year

he would be in Congress today.  

But unfortunately I don't think he can win in 2010.  How 2010 goes depends on whether a health care bill passes and the economy recovers.  If both happen, 2010 will be an pro-incumbent year.  If neither happen, it will be a mini-wave for the Repubs. Neither would help Hayhurst win.

---

by: JSmith @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 09:38:25 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

IN-03

is basically the district that elected Dan Quayle in 1976 & 78, although Quayle's home town of Huntington is now in IN-05.

---

by: davybaby @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 11:53:45 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I agree Hayhurst was a better candidate

than Montagano was -- a young, attractive "big city" attorney vs a folksy country doctor. BUT .......

I really don't see Hayhurst winning in 2010, or really coming as close as he did on 2006.  And while it was suprisingly close, it wasn't like it was a cliffhanger -- he still lost by 8 points and like 15,000 votes.  He didn't win a single county in the district (although was withing under 1000 in Allen County, and did win Fort Wayne proper).

I do agree he should at least be on the radar of candidates the DCCC should keep on their radar.  Another factor is that he threw in a substantial amount of his own money last time -- will he cough it up again?

---

by: IndianaProgressive @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 13:32:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Dennis Wicker

I'm not excited about Dennis Wicker running against Richard Burr.  Dennis was the NC Lt. Gov from 1993-2001, but he was crushed by Mike Easley in the 2000 Democratic primary for Governor.  During the debates, the moderator would ask the candidates a question, and Wicker would also make a fast, snappy answer, and then he would always state, paraphrasing "going back to hog lagoons, when I become Governor of North Carolina I'm going to eliminate all hog lagoons!".  Didn't matter what the subject was about (taxation, social services, etc.), he would always start shouting stuff about hog lagoons.  He came off as a mad, unorthodox candidate, and as a result he was defeated.

The NC Dems need someone without a lot of baggage.  Wicker has plenty, and Burr would defeat Wicker hands-down.  I love Elaine Marshall, and I hope she runs.  The only problem Elaine has is that she is very low-profile for a Secretary of State who has served for 12+ years.

---

by: Tarheeman1993 @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 09:00:50 AM CDT

That's truly hilarious

Here's a good article from 2000 on the "hog lagoon" issue:
http://www.nytimes.com/2000/05...

---

by: NJCentrist @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 13:40:09 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

You should have seen the live debate

At one time, there was a primary debate between the Democratic candidates.  One specific question was about the current sales tax, and Wicker says something like "I'm not against raising taxes or the status quo.  It doesn't matter.  What does matter is that when I become governor, I'll get rid of all hog lagoons!".  Easley responded by saying something like "are we going to debate the issues, or are we just going to talk about hog lagoons?".  After the debate, Easley won my vote and many others.

Wicker is a dead end street.  Our bench is deep, and we can do better than Wicker.    

---

by: Tarheeman1993 @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 14:41:36 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I dunno

If Wicker is so good at cleaning up hog lagoons, he'll have a wonderful time in the cesspool that is DC.

---

by: Nonpartisan @ Tue Aug 18, 2009 at 03:38:18 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Good point

But as a side note, Mike Easley did a pretty good job of eliminating hog lagoons in NC.  This was not a big issue in NC until 1999, when we had two tropical storms dump 15+ inches of rain a piece on the Eastern part of NC.  Just about every sky cam showed these hogs floating around.

My father worked for Wicker, and although Dad is a diehard Democrat, he thought Wicker was a loose cannon.  Wicker's biggest problem was that he took every conversation way too seriously.  The NC legislature despised Wicker.

---

by: Tarheeman1993 @ Tue Aug 18, 2009 at 08:24:59 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Wicker

An Ex-Lt. Gov. from 10 years ago doesnt exactly strike me as being a major contender...even someone like Cunningham would seem a better candidate, despite not being as experienced.  

---

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Aug 18, 2009 at 04:38:33 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

The only people who would want Wicker to run

are supporters of Richard Burr.  Wicker is a poor man's Erskine Bowles.

---

by: Tarheeman1993 @ Tue Aug 18, 2009 at 08:25:47 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Just

watched a web video released by KBH. Boy, if all the stuff about Texas in that video was true, that defiantly shatters the myth of Texas being some paradise brought on by conservative governance. Hey do you guys in Texas really have the highest property taxes in the nation? I thought New Jersey had that honor.

---

by: ehstronghold @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 09:01:13 AM CDT

TX is 15th

But compared to the rest of the south they are crazy high.

---

by: admnok @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 09:32:39 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Texas has very high sales and property taxes

but no state income tax.

---

by: davybaby @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 11:55:31 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

New Jersey sure does that honor.

And our property taxes are up 20% since Corzine took office and more than 50% since McGreevey took office. Corzine's "40 in 4" plan never happened -- instead, he managed to slash the property tax rebate program. Oh, and property taxes aren't the only ones ballooning; so are our income tax, sales tax, realty transfer tax...the list goes on.

Just sayin'...people are angry at Corzine for a reason.

---

by: NJCentrist @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 13:46:11 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

And Perry returns fire

http://www.washingtonkay.com/ Grab your helmets guys this is gonna be a big one....

---

by: ehstronghold @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 14:02:39 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I don't know where this web video is

but based on your description, I have gained a bit more respect for her, though the "highest property taxes" statement, as noted, is a little off. I saw a post on City-Data that said that Texas' tax rate of 1.80% is second-highest after NJ, though I can't find any sources to confirm or refute that statement.

And yeah Texas is a "paradise brought on by conservative governance"...for corpoRATs. (Though the funny thing is, rich people and businesses in California missed the memo that since taxes are supposedly so high they should leave.) Meanwhile, the rest of us get to enjoy continuing being tops in people without health insurance.

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

---

by: californianintexas @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 20:01:56 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Here you go

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

---

by: ehstronghold @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 21:10:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Thanks.

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

---

by: californianintexas @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 22:07:34 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Wow

that was a DAMN good web video.  I love how she used Perry's own quotes about how great she is in it!

Bout damn time someone brought their A-game and planned out their runs.  Ive been really disappointed here in MN with people announcing their runs and having shitty web videos, shitty websites, shitty photos, etc.  I keep thinking, how long have you been planning this?  Why have you given yourself MONTHS to prepare and you come out with c-grade campaign materials.

---

by: Andrew @ Tue Aug 18, 2009 at 15:28:26 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Health insurance

And I have heard the rates are downright scary, third-world country esque in the border counties. The state govt needs to help those folks more.

---

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Aug 18, 2009 at 04:41:54 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Definitely.

They need to stop pretending places like Las Colonias don't exist. (Even Calexico, California, another border city, is not in as bad shape.)

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

---

by: californianintexas @ Tue Aug 18, 2009 at 07:28:32 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

And

Florida, which has a similar tax structure to Texas and has been dubbed "the growth state" for the last 20 years, had a net loss of population for the first time since after World War 2. And, while California has had a negative net domestic migration rate for the better part of a decade, the state has continued to grow due to high birth and immigration rates, though the latter has slowed recently.

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

---

by: californianintexas @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 20:06:18 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

To be fair

We also dont have a state income tax. But the sales tax (over 8%) is pretty high, too.

---

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Aug 18, 2009 at 04:39:55 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Who is the NY state Senate majority leader?

Or is there one?

Liz Benjamin referred to Malcolm Smith as "the then majority leader" in her column today.

---

by: fai calif @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 13:05:54 PM CDT

Unbelievably

it's Democratic Sen. Pedro Espada. Yeah, that Pedro Espada.

---

by: NJCentrist @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 13:48:04 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

If

it wasn't for that asshat's little power grab a few months ago, the Democrats would of been poised to severely punish the Republicans dearly in the New York State Senate. Fact of the matter is, because of Espada, the Democrats will never be as powerful as the Republicans were when they held the majority.

---

by: ehstronghold @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 13:56:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

"how ugly 2010 is going to be for Team Blue" ????

I think it is a bit early to be drawing that conclusion.

Certainly there are scenarios where the mid-terms might turn into a bad Democratic year - if the economy stays weak, if health care doesn't pass, if the Democratic base is discouraged and the Republican base excited, etc.

But is not inevitable.

The biggest question is obviously how the economy is doing - if an authentic recovery is taking hold in 2010, then it will be credited to President Obama and the Democrats.

Some form of health care is going to pass - it is not going to satisfy people like me on the left, but it will significant enough to be viewed as a historic breakthrough and major Democratic victory.

The Republicans in Congress will continue to be "the party of no" and could pay the price for standing solidly against the successes of Obama's progams. (Unlike 1994, when the Republicans actually had a program and message - the "Contract with America" was well suited for the public mood - Boehner and McConnell seem unable to develop such a marketable message.)

And the extremism of much of the Republican base seems unlikely to abate, but more likely to grow in intensity and ugliness. If so, the chance for a backlash grow significantly (? our version of Nixon's "silent majority" versus what is perceived as an extreme vocal minority).

I'm most worried about the Governors -- for a lot of reasons there are a lot of vulnerable Democratic  incumbents and open seats. The incumbency factor will hurt if a "throw the bums out" mood takes hold -- and surely the current state of the races in Virginia and New Jersey are not a good sign for us.

But while there are states like Iowa, Kansas, Massachusetts, Michigan, New York (?), Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Wisconsin and Wyoming where we could loose the governor's seat, there are quite a few Republican seats that are at least equally vulnerable like Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Minnesota, Nevada, Rhode Island, South Carolina (?), Texas (?), and Vermont.

There are certainly a number of Democrats in the House (a couple of dozen) who came in during the 2006 and 2008 waves and may be vulnerable this election - but they won't all lose, thanks to the advantages of incumbency and the fact that many of them represent districts where politics is in flux.

But at the same time that those seats are on the line, we may still flip a number of Republican seats where we have strong recruits --  due to possible incumbent departures (DE-AL, FL-10, FL-12, IL-10, KS-4, and PA-6, incumbents with weaknesses (LA-2, MN 6, SC1) and/or seats where political trends are working in our favor (3 or 4 seats in California, PA 15, WA8).

Both parties seem to be doing relatively well in terms of candidate recruitment, and we probably won't see a ton of retirement on either side (except for folks running for higher office). I suspect that, barring a "wave" election for the Republicans, we'll come close to breaking even, probably losing seats in the single digits.

And, improbable as it seems, there is even a chance we will hold or increase our margin in the Senate.

A good case can be made that the Republicans could take Democratic-held Senate seats in a few states ( CT, CO, IL) and possibly  a number of other states where it is unclear if the Republicans will recruit a strong candidate or mount a real challenge (AR, CA (?), DE, NV, ND (only if it is Hoeven), PA,  and  WI).

But there are at least an equal number of Republican-held seats where we are seriously challenging (KY, LA (Melacon?), MO, NH, and OH)   or where there is some chance we'll make it a race (FL- but increasingly unlikely as Rubio appears to be fading, IA (Braley?), NC (given Burr's poll numbers), and TX (in the special election for KBH's seat).  )

--

I'm not whistling past the graveyard  -- I fully believe that 2010 could turn out to be an "ugly" year for us... but 15 months out there are far too many variables in play to be sure that is how it is going to play out.  

---

by: terje @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 15:00:36 PM CDT

We have to energize our base

Right now, the GOP is energized enough where they will probably win VA-Gov, NJ-Gov, and NY-23.  I'm not surprised by this, but at the same time the GOP strength lies solely with their ability to feed fear to the people of their base.  It's working now, but I don't see it lasting.

The problem the GOP has is that there are no true leaders within their ranks that are not tarnished.  Who are their leaders?  Palin?  She's a walking time bomb.  Gingrich?  He reached his prime over 10 years ago.  Limbaugh?  All the GOP politicians live in fear of pissing him off.  Huckabee?  He's a likeable fellow, but his culturally conservative message is not helping him out at this time.  Romney?  He's a true definition of a flip-flopper.

I think the Democrats control their own destiny.  The economy is improving, and the credit should go to the Democrats because the stimulus package is working.  The GOP knows this, but they also know if that they can provide misinformation to the general public, at the end of the day it doesn't matter.  The GOP was able to convince the general public in November 1994 that the country was going straight to hell, and it worked then.  It won't work in 2010 because the GOP is void of leadership (Gingrich, who is a snake, was great at organizing his party.  Mr. Boehner, you are no Gingrich).

I think we will have to play defense in the House in 2010.  We could lose as many as 25 seats if the GOP ever gets their act in order.  Right now, I think we will lose (net) about 10 seats.  In the Senate, mathematics are working in our way.  We should have a solid chance at states like Ohio, New Hampshire, Missouri, and Kentucky, with other states like North Carolina in play.  I wouldn't count out Louisiana either, but more because of Vitter than our own candidates' abilities.

---

by: Tarheeman1993 @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 15:20:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Good points

The reason 2010 won't be quite as bad as 1994 (1982 is another story), is exactly what you said: the GOP leadership void. Newt's organizing skills and media savvy (prior to late 1995) helped create the Republican "Revolution". W's popularity helped them in 2002.

Who do they have now? The best guy they had, Jon Huntsman, is now ambassador to China. Boehner is duller than an Ohio winter day, Romney has way too many faces, Huckabee's an Elmer Gantry wannabe, Gingrich is past his sell-by date, and Palin is cementing her repuation as an idiotic charicature.

---

by: corran horn @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 17:30:00 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Romney

As much as Romney is willing to change his views to become President, I see an opening for him. He could challenge Obama from the left in the 2012 Democratic Primary.

Anyway, Huckabee can get crossover appeal from Conservative Democrats. He's the type of populist that the Blue Dog type would go for minus the fair tax. I still think he would have done much much better than McCain in the General.

---

by: RuralDem @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 22:40:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Oh definately

If Huckabee had been the nominee it would have been a little closer. If Romney had been the nominee, it would have been very close

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 23:24:50 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Huck

Maybe hed have carried NC and IN, given that the social conservative wing of the GOP would be much more motivated and hed also bring on board many blue collar Dems/Indys. Other than his military resume McCain had almost nothing in common with blue collar voters. He just couldnt relate to them. I think theyd relate to Huckabee, even if he is more conservative than he lets on. At least post-Governorship. He also might have even won OH. And hed make MI alot closer, though still would have lost by a good margin i bet (a big reason simply being...he wouldnt have written off the state like McCain). I think hed make IA closer, as well. And win MO by a bigger margin. But I think hed do worse in states like PA, FL, CO, VA, NH, MN, NV, etc. And possibly even lose MT. Man, this is alot of alternative history here but just the way I see things ;).

---

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Aug 18, 2009 at 04:51:35 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Huckabee

Ann Coulter once said that Huck was the Republican's version of Jimmy Carter.  I think I somewhat, to my chagrin, agree with Coulter.  Huckabee would have won NC because he would have energized the religious base here.  At the same time, I think Obama might have won Arizona, Montana, and maybe North or South Dakota.  Indiana may have swayed to Huckabee.

---

by: Tarheeman1993 @ Tue Aug 18, 2009 at 08:28:43 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Some conservatives have been comparing Huckabee to Dukakis.

Huckabee pardoned a rapist who went on to commit another rape/murder in Missouri, so the Dukakis comparison popped into my head. I did a Google search and found this in a link to Free Republic (cringe).

"Huckakis. Not only did he govern like Dukakis on crime, but he'll get to lose by Dukakis figures too."

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

---

by: californianintexas @ Tue Aug 18, 2009 at 18:09:54 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

New Willie Horton ads?

How ironic would THAT be?

---

by: Pan @ Tue Aug 18, 2009 at 19:49:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I didnt think about AZ

That definitely could have flipped. Even many Republicans there are not of the Huckabee-brand. Although they are much more fiscally conservative than he is, it seems. Given that Huck was the Gov. of a heavy ag state and both are socially conservative (though not Bible Belt) states I think hed have won the Dakotas. He would have been to their right, socially, i think, but i think theyd have pulled the lever for him.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Aug 18, 2009 at 23:33:38 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Huck

Huck seems to have solid populist rhetoric but when it comes to the issues at hand...hes your basic run of the mill conservative. But perhaps even more so due to his very conservative tax stance. But alot of folks will only hear his rhetoric and then tune out everything else. So who knows maybe itd work for him!

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Aug 18, 2009 at 04:45:23 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Rasmussen polls IL-Sen

Kirk 41%
Giannoulias 38%

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

I've been saying this will end up like Maryland in 2006 so I had a look back and...

Rasmussen 01/10/06 500 LV

Steele 45
Cardin 40

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

---

by: conspiracy @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 16:44:30 PM CDT

That's why

I don't trust any Rassy numbers more than 3 months out from an election. Once they come w/in that horizon, they become much more accurate. Outside of it, they tend to produce very screwy numbers.

I recall how they kept producing polls showing Maria Cantwell to be vulnerable against Mike McGavick, right up to about late September, only to beat him 57-40.

---

by: corran horn @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 17:22:04 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Actually it reminds me of TX-Sen in 2002

An open seat in the very blue (red) home state of the President.  The opposition party had a guy named Kirk who was considered an excellent candidate.

---

by: JSmith @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 17:36:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Rasmussen

was acting weird when they were polling the Minnesota race over the summer last year. They had Franken within a point or two within Coleman while other polls showed Franken losing by quite a bit.

---

by: ehstronghold @ Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 21:10:23 PM CDT

[ Parent ]