With the 2010 election season starting to heat up a bit in the House, we thought we’d take a look back at all the incumbents who didn’t seek re-election to the 111th Congress, along with the date they officially announced they weren’t running again (and their reasons).
| District | Incumbent | Party | Decision | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO-02 | Mark Udall | (D) | Ran for senate | 1-Jan-07 |
| MA-05 | Marty Meehan | (D) | Resigned | 13-Mar-07 |
| CA-52 | Duncan Hunter | (R) | Ran for president | 20-Mar-07 |
| ME-01 | Tom Allen | (D) | Ran for senate | 8-May-07 |
| IL-18 | Ray LaHood | (R) | Retired | 26-Jul-07 |
| MS-03 | Chip Pickering | (R) | Retired | 16-Aug-07 |
| OH-15 | Deborah Pryce | (R) | Retired | 16-Aug-07 |
| AZ-01 | Rick Renzi | (R) | Retired | 23-Aug-07 |
| AL-02 | Terry Everett | (R) | Retired | 26-Aug-07 |
| MN-03 | Jim Ramstad | (R) | Retired | 17-Sep-07 |
| IL-11 | Jerry Weller | (R) | Retired | 21-Sep-07 |
| NM-01 | Heather Wilson | (R) | Ran for senate | 4-Oct-07 |
| OH-16 | Ralph Regula | (R) | Retired | 11-Oct-07 |
| OH-07 | Dave Hobson | (R) | Retired | 14-Oct-07 |
| NM-02 | Steve Pearce | (R) | Ran for senate | 16-Oct-07 |
| LA-01 | Bobby Jindal | (R) | Elected governor | 20-Oct-07 |
| CO-06 | Tom Tancredo | (R) | Ran for president | 28-Oct-07 |
| NY-21 | Michael McNulty | (D) | Retired | 29-Oct-07 |
| NJ-03 | Jim Saxton | (R) | Retired | 9-Nov-07 |
| NM-03 | Tom Udall | (D) | Ran for senate | 9-Nov-07 |
| WY-AL | Barbara Cubin | (R) | Retired | 10-Nov-07 |
| NJ-07 | Mike Ferguson | (R) | Retired | 19-Nov-07 |
| IL-14 | Denny Hastert | (R) | Resigned | 26-Nov-07 |
| LA-04 | Jim McCrery | (R) | Retired | 7-Dec-07 |
| MS-01 | Roger Wicker | (R) | Appointed to senate | 31-Dec-07 |
| PA-05 | John Peterson | (R) | Retired | 3-Jan-08 |
| CA-04 | John Doolittle | (R) | Retired | 10-Jan-08 |
| LA-06 | Richard Baker | (R) | Resigned | 15-Jan-08 |
| NY-25 | Jim Walsh | (R) | Retired | 24-Jan-08 |
| FL-15 | Dave Weldon | (R) | Retired | 25-Jan-08 |
| KY-02 | Ron Lewis | (R) | Retired | 29-Jan-08 |
| MO-09 | Kenny Hulshof | (R) | Ran for governor | 29-Jan-08 |
| VA-11 | Tom Davis | (R) | Retired | 30-Jan-08 |
| OR-05 | Darlene Hooley | (D) | Retired | 7-Feb-08 |
| AL-05 | Bud Cramer | (D) | Retired | 13-Mar-08 |
| NY-26 | Tom Reynolds | (R) | Retired | 21-Mar-08 |
| MD-04 | Al Wynn | (D) | Resigned | 27-Mar-08 |
| NY-13 | Vito Fossella | (R) | Retired | 19-May-08 |
Note: Mark Udall planned to run for Senate long before the 2008 cycle began, so we’ve just slotted him in at the top. And if you’d like to take a look back at Republican retirements in the 2006 cycle, click here.
As you can see, things unfolded rather differently over the last two Congresses, especially compared to what we’ve seen so far this year. Last cycle, there were already a number of outright retirements at this point (including several shockers, like Deborah Pryce and Chip Pickering), while only three reps had announced campaigns for higher office. There were also many more retirements to come, especially on the GOP side; the most fertile months for announcements turned out to be October-November and January.
This time, we have zero retirements and a whopping eighteen members of Congress who are running for a different job. It’s easy to see why we have no retirements yet – Dems are in power, and the GOP is feeling better about its chances these days. I’m personally hoping that the combination of a real healthcare bill passing, plus some Dem victories in the three key races on Nov. 3 (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov & NY-23), will help re-demoralize the Republican Party and encourage some geezers to head for the exits. At the very least, barring some kind of crazy collapse on our side, we are extremely unlikely to see a repeat of 1994, when thirty Dems announced their retirements, and the GOP picked up twenty-two open seats. So far, there are just seven blue open seats this cycle, and only three are potentially competitive.
There are currently many Rs who believe they can “take back” the House in 2010.
If Owens wins – 27 days from now, many more Rs will see that as a false hope, taking more of their leaders, tying them more to the Rush/Beck axis.
I agree that good Dem showings in VA and NJ along with a robust public option Health Care Reform will pick up spirits. I maintain that NY 23 is not the race for this purpose. A progressive R opposed by Club for Growth Conservative and a Democratic candidate to her right! Dede will give us a great across the aisle partner that we can use for bi-partisan cover on many pro-labor and social issues. This will be much more meaningful along with the need to build a progressive wing to the Republicans so that they can see the light of their extremist ways than winning one more seat for a centrist Democrat.
Even Deeds is acknowledging that he will have a hard time. He’s already starting the blame game, blaming DC. Obama will also not return to VA
Vitter at 68-30 approval. Anybody buying that? And if that’s true, wouldn’t he likely have more than a 10-point lead and be well over 50% against Melancon, who purportedly has 33-30 approval?