Racial Composition Change by Congressional District

32 thoughts on “Racial Composition Change by Congressional District”

1. The areas of Latino growth are, I think, the most important part of the story — not just in the heavily Latino parts of the country captured here, but in smaller but significant numbers all over the country (even here in central Indiana).  Bottom line — if the Republicans continue to be a party that appeals basically only to whites, they’ll become a permanent minority party.  If we can build on the Latino support President Obama got (which, remember, many critics during the election said he wouldn’t!), we’re in a really, really good position.

2. FWIW, I would expect PA-01 and PA-02 to get less black and more white as Philadelphia gentrifies. Here’s an interesting question: when will the Florida “Jewish” districts give way to non-Cuban hispanic districts? There’s no guarantee that retired Jews will move to Florida ad-infinitum. I don’t think DWS or Wexler are in any immediate danger of a primary challenge, but I also don’t think that they’re in Congress for life–notwithstanding the partisan nature of their districts.  

3. It’s a fascinating thing that the Congressman seeing the biggest growth in black population, David Scott, was recently the victim of having a swastika painted on his office sign in the Atlanta burbs.  Scott, a black man, now represents a majority black district he’s too conservative for.  That “painter” was out of touch and threatened .

   Two key conservadems from Maryland are seeing large increases in black population: Steny Hoyer and Dutch Ruppersberger.

   Gene Green turns 62 this week.  When he retires or is forced out, the next Congressman is Hispanic.  Since House pensions are no longer as generous as they were, I suspect he’ll try to hold on for another 10 years or more.

   Texas is now a majority minority state that demographically looks a lot more like California than the rest of the US.  Fewer Asians and more whites.  But majority minority and not heavily black.  IIRC (and I could be wrong) Gene Green and Lloyd Doggett are the only white Democrats in the House from Texas.  That’s a fascinating political split.

4. Played right, it should enhance our prospects in 2012 and beyond.

5. Small states with one or two House members are generally not too representative of the national population. And they are growing slowly.

   Twelve states and DC have 3 or 4 electoral votes.  Three are growing faster than the national gain of 8.0% between 2000 and 2008: Idaho (+17.8%), Delaware (+11.4%), and Alaska (+9.5%).

   Hawaii is the most diverse state in the Union with only 24.9% of the population non-Hispanic white and 39.9% Asian.  That doesn’t cover Hawaiian Islanders.

   Alaska and Delaware each have under 70% non-Hispanic whites but do it in different ways.  Delaware has a black population 20.9% and Alaska has a large native population.  All the others are less diverse and the largest minority in the Dakotas is native American.  Rhode Island has a surprising (to me) 11.6% of its population listed as Hispanic.

   The District of Columbia remains barely majority black at 54.4%.

   Rhode Island is at the cusp of losing its second House member.  Its population in 2008 would merit 1.51 House members.  Just glancing but Nebraska is likely to lose a seat which would make the Lee Terry seat and its one electoral vote a moot point.

   The accuracy or inaccuracy of the Census is a major point.  Estimates run millions above the actual Census count and traditionally undercount minorities and poor people.  Traditional methods, quite frankly, benefit Republicans big time.  No wonder they spend so much effort undermining amy other method.  Only a traditional count, for example, has any possibility of saving three seat for Nebraska.

6. What does this mean politically?

   Is there a common voting pattern of Arabs, Indians, Pakistanis, Chinese, Japanese, Koreans, Vietnamese, Philipinos and others ?

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