I know this is not very realistic but I decided to go for a 7-4 Democratic plan. Democrats should control at least the State House but it would unlikely if they had total control of everything. Most Republicans would probably like most of the plan except that I weaken Frank Wolf from the 10th district. He claims to be a moderate but he is actually a Conservative. My other main priority was to strengthen all the Democratic incumbents. On a different note, this is the first time in awhile I have asked you which state I should do next. Here are the maps:
Here is a link to the current Congressional map of Virginia: http://www.nationalatlas.gov/a…
1st District (Blue) Robert Whitman (R)
Even if Republicans do not like the plan, they should be happy about this district. I removed all of Prince William County which is trending Democratic quickly. I also removed the slivers of Hampton and Newport News because Obama easily won those two areas. I also removed Caroline, Essex and King and Queen Counties because Obama barely won those counties and I wanted to put them in the 5th district. The new counties in the district were Hanover (which McCain won by 19,000 votes,) Orange and New Kent. The latter two are Republican. Even though the district looks rural, it is mostly concentrated on fast growing Republican suburbs. Stafford and Spotsylvania counties might be marginal in the 2012 presidential election as minorities and voters from D.C move there. Whitman should be safe here in a district where McCain probably won 56% of the vote, up from 51% under the old plan. The demographics are 15% Black (down from 18%) and 76% White. Status is Safe Republican.
2nd District Glenn Nye (D) Green
Nye barely won and Obama barely won the old district too. Even though Nye is a blue dog, a strong Republican could easily unseat him, especially in a year like 2010. So I added all of Hampton and Newport News to the district. Those two cities voted for Obama by a combined 51,000 votes. I may have overprotected Nye by creating a grotesque gerrymander including Black neighborhoods in Virginia Beach and White neighborhoods in Norfolk. The parts of Norfolk I included may not be heavily Democratic. I did at least remove Republican parts of Virginia Beach. Anyway, the district becomes heavily Democratic while the 3rd district is still majority Black. The only problem is that 3rd district Congressman Bobby Scott’s home is in the district. Since the 3rd contains most of his old territory, he could just run there and be safe. Obama probably won 61% of the vote here. The demographics are 34% Black, 5% Hispanic and 54% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
3rd District Bobby Scott (D) Purple
The district changes a bit and no longer jumps over the river. It loses all of Hampton and Newport News while scooping up every Black precinct on the southern bank of the James River. Most of the new precincts are from the current 4th district. Also, the 3rd drops Republican New Kent County while extending an arm into Hopewell which leans Democratic and Petersburg where Obama won 89% of the vote. Besides these changes, I added a few more precincts in Richmond City and Henrico County. I also added some in Chesterfield County which had high Black turnout but McCain still won it. Basically, all the new additions came in here so I could strengthen the 4th district. With these small changes, Scott should be safe. Obama probably won 75% of the vote here. Demographics are 55% Black and 36% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
4th District Randy Forbes (R) Red
I mentioned this map would be a gerrymander. I definitely made this district convoluted even though it is nothing compared to (you can probably figure that out.) Still, I kept in most of Chesapeake where Forbes lives. Since the 3rd district and the 5th took away all the heavily Black precincts, I sent this district west to take away Republican areas in the 5th and 9th districts. The district has a long string along the Virginia/North Carolina border to a clump of Republican counties formerly in the 5th and 9th districts. I see no reason for Forbes to complain unless he wanted a more compact district. Since I reduced the Black population from 33% to 20%, Forbes should be safe. McCain probably won 59% of the vote here. Demographics are 20% Black and 72% White. Status is Safe Republican.
5th District Tom Perrillio (D) Yellow
First, I am sorry about this extremely convoluted gerrymander that should not be on this map. I do not see Republicans objecting to it because it helps shore up possibly endangered incumbents such as Whitman, Forbes and Cantor. The district’s new changes include a finger into the old 1st district to take some Democratic areas. The district then goes toward Richmond. The last major change was extending the district up to Rappahannock County which is 83% White but Democratic Senator Jim Webb still carried it in 2006. What is amazing is that Black percentage remains stagnant. The areas the district picks up such as Harrisonburg in the Shenandoah Valley are filled with white Democrats. Perrillio should face a major challenge in 2010 but if he survives, this plan will protect him. Obama probably won 54% of the vote here. Demographics are 23% Black and 69% White. Status is Likely Democrat.
6th District Bob Goodlatte (R) Teal
This district stays mostly the same in area. Goodlatte keeps the Shenandoah Valley and loses Democratic areas in it such as Harrisonburg and part of Roanoke. Just to shake him up, I took his home out but since this district contains most of his old territory, he would probably pick it. I gave him some Republican counties in the current 9th district. The biggest change I made was moving this district closer to D.C. I gave him most of Fauquier County which used to be in the 1st district. I even gave him a slice of Prince William County. D.C politicians might complain but Goodlatte will not. The area I gave him is pretty Republican. The only problem I see for him is that Deeds might take a run at this district if he loses the gubernatorial election. The 6th district contains most of his old State Senate district. He could run it close but would probably lose by about ten points because I do not see Republicans in the northern part of the district backing Deeds. I will give Deeds a better chance if he performs extremely well in rural areas during the gubernatorial election. In other cases, Goodlatte should be safe. McCain probably won 62% of the vote here. Demographics are 5% Black and 89% White, the whitest district in Virginia. Status is Likely Republican if Deeds runs, Safe Republican if Deeds does not.
7th district Eric Cantor (R) Gray
Unlike Goodlatte, Cantor keeps his home in his district but the rest of his territory is switched. I split his old territory with the 1st and 5th districts. Most of his new territory was Republican parts of the 4th and the 5th. The reason I took Republican areas away from the 4th was for population purposes. I know this is gerrymandered but as long as he has a safe district, Republicans and Cantor should not complain. McCain probably won 55% of the vote here. Demographics are 17% Black and 74% White. Status is Safe Republican.
8th District Jim Moran (D) Purple (in the north)
I kept most of Arlington and all of Alexandria in the district. The main changes I made were taking out the thin corridor that heads to Reston in northwestern Fairfax County. I sent Moran’s district to western Fairfax County to take in some territory that is mixed. Obama probably pulled even in the western part but Arlington and Alexandria should save Moran from any trouble. The close in suburbs should help make this district heavily Democratic. Obama probably won 65% of the vote here. Demographics are 10% Black, 16% Hispanic, 14% Asian and 55% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
9th District Rick Boucher (D) Light Blue
This district mostly remained unchanged after most redistricting. I decided to change that. I put some heavily Republican counties into the 6th district. The only spot of worry is that I slipped in Roanoke which votes Democratic but Goodlatte lives there. Again, I am assuming Goodlatte would not want to risk a run against Boucher when Goodlatte could easily win the 6th. The Republicans may field someone else but that candidate would have a poor chance of beating Boucher. McCain probably won 56% of the vote here, down from 59% in the old district. Demographics are 8% Black and 86% White. Status is Safe/Likely Democrat.
10th District Frank Wolf (R) Pink
His district is 69% White so it appears unchanged at a first glance from its current form. Wolf’s problem is that many of those white voters are Liberals. His old district contained many white voters from the Conservative Shenandoah Valley. I will admit I did not give him much new territory. I did, however take out all of the Shenandoah Valley. The only Conservative areas are Clarke County and part of Fauquier County. I kept most of his old territory in the district with all of Loudon County and northern Fairfax County. He is probably entrenched there. Still, he should lose because I added Vienna, Reston, Falls Church and about half of Arlington. Those areas combined probably gave Obama a combined 40,000 vote margin. Also knowing that Wolf’s old territory he keeps voted for Obama, Wolf is in trouble. Brian Moran, Jim Moran’s brother might run here as a comeback after his failed Gubernatorial primary run earlier this year. With his brother’s support, Brian Moran would crush Wolf in Fairfax County and that should offset anything from Loudon County. Obama probably won 58% of the vote here. Demographics are 6% Black, 10% Hispanic, 12% Asian and 69% White. Status is Likely/Lean Democrat, depending on the challengers.
11th District Gerry Connelly (D) Light Green
This district shrank in size like the 10th due to large population gains. I sent this district to the Alexandria border and kept it out of the Republican western Prince William County. I also added Manassas and the surrounding area which Obama won. I cut out central Fairfax County due to population constraints. Another change was adding Democratic parts of Stafford County which Obama may turn blue in 2012. Overall, this district now easily protects Connelly. Obama probably won 60% of the vote here. Demographics are 17% Black, 17% Hispanic, 9% Asian and 52% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
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First, I think your goal of creating a 7-4 Dem redistricting map is entirely realistic, and agree with you that the obvious target ought to be Frank Wolf. To that end, however, I think you could have made things a lot simpler by creating three suburban districts radiating outward from Washington: the innermost ring, the 8th, takes in Arlington, Alexandria, and inner Fairfax; the second ring, the 11th, takes in the rest of Fairfax, and maybe a small slice of Prince William (this would help shore up Connolly, for whom this territory is a natural base given his years Fairfax County executive); and the outermost ring, the 10th, takes in all of Loudoun, 90% of Prince William (both rapidly developing Obama counties), and the northern, exurban parts of Fauquier County.
Similarly, as you acknowledge, your 5th district is incredibly convoluted, and strikes me a little bit like the old Cleo Fields district in Louisiana. It seems to me that it would be much more reasonable to simply link together all of the more densely populated, Dem-leaning parts of the current 5th (Martinsville, Danville, and Charlottesville – all carried by Obama), and throw in Dem-friendly Roanoke (since its current district, the 6th, couldn’t get more Republican anyway). That would allow you to cut out some of the more conservative, rural counties presently included, the same areas that provided Virgil Goode with his base of support. It probably wouldn’t be considered a “safe” Dem district, but I think its one that definitely would be winnable, and where a hardworking incumbent like Tom Perriello would have a distinct advantage.
But there is zero chance it will be enacted.