PPP (pdf) (2/5-10, likely voters)
Tom Perriello (D-inc): 44
Robert Hurt (R): 44
Undecided: 13Tom Perriello (D-inc): 41
Robert Hurt (R): 12
Virgil Goode (I): 41
Undecided: 6Tom Perriello (D-inc): 44
Robert Hurt (R): 27
Generic Teabagger (I): 19
Undecided: 10Tom Perriello (D-inc): 46
Ken Boyd (R): 42
Undecided: 12Tom Perriello (D-inc): 45
Jim McKelvey (R): 37
Undecided: 18Tom Perriello (D-inc): 45
Michael McPadden (R): 36
Undecided: 19Tom Perriello (D-inc): 44
Lawrence Verga (R): 34
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±3.2%)
Mainstream media pundits have pretty much already left Rep. Tom Perriello for dead. Between having the narrowest margin of victory of any Democrat in 2008 (900-odd votes over then-Rep. Virgil Goode) and sitting in a rural R+5 district that went strongly for Bob McDonnell in November’s gubernatorial race, he was already viewed as endangered — and when he cast theoretically risky votes for cap and trade and health care reform instead of hiding under a pile of coats with the Blue Dogs, well, it was an open and shut case, right? Guess again: PPP finds Perriello tied with his strongest Republican opposition, state Sen. Robert Hurt, and winning rather convincingly against the assortment of other random Republicans. (As a bonus, PPP promises GOP primary numbers tomorrow, so we can see if Hurt, an establishment figure who’s had a big target painted on his back by not just the teabaggers but also the CfG/Grover Norquist set, is getting hurt by the GOP schism.) Don’t pop the bubbly yet, of course: Perriello’s still well below the 50% safety mark.
One thing I love about PPP is how willing they are to try out every possible permutation, and they do that here, with a three-way against an unnamed tea party independent (although Generic Teabagger already has a name in this race… it’s Bradley Rees), where Perriello effectively rides the split to victory over Hurt, and a three-way with ex-Rep. Virgil Goode as an independent (something he’s threatened, although hasn’t taken steps towards). There, it’s actually a Perriello/Goode tie, with Hurt getting a woeful 12%. This is interesting, as Goode is basically functioning as a non-generic teabagger; if there’s one guy out there who seems tailor-made for the Tea Party movement, it’s Goode, who briefly served as an independent in between being a Dem (when first elected) and a GOPer, and whose odd, ideologically incoherent mix of libertarianism, populism, and xenophobic crackpottery seems like the teabagger template.
Also worth noting: Goode is the only person in the whole poll who’s in positive territory (58/29). Not Barack Obama (although he’s at a surprisingly not-bad 46/50), not Perriello (42/46), not Hurt (15/15), and certainly not the other GOP odds and ends.
RaceTracker Wiki: VA-05
He is really a good pulbica servant and my sister and her boyfriend at UVA Law worked canvassed like crazy for his narrow victory, including having to run from a crazy old farmer (probably a Teabagger) yelling obscenities about Obama with a rifle (no prosecution though since it was on his property). HA!
Unbelievable. I wonder how Nye is doing? If those two can hang I don’t think this year will be as bad as people think…
I thought Periello was a goner for sure. Along with Minnick and Bright.
Good to see these numbers, but those are some pretty nasty unfavs. Also weird to see such positive fav scores for Goode.
http://www.actblue.com/entity/…
Contrary to other better entrenched (seemingly) Democrats in less hostile districts – very decent numbers.
Bradley Rees has only threatened to run third party, but he has stated more and more in the media that he will likely not run; he enjoys the perch that he has created for himself. I seriously doubt that he will live into his threat for a third party candidacy. Some of the lesser known third party candidates (i.e., McKelvey and McPadden) have intoned about the possibility of running third party.
There is also the possibility of a Tea Party candidate, Jeffrey Clark, who said that he would definitely get in if it looks like Hurt will get the nomination (PPP releases their VA-5 GOP primary results tomorrow).
Finally as The American Prospect states:
If Goode wants to run again why would he do it as an Independent and not as a Republican. My understanding was Hurt and all the other jumped into the race because Goode said he wasnt going to run again. Have to believe if Goode wanted to run again he could have the GOP nod for the asking.
If so this poll should sacre Dems. Goode could look at it and think if he could probably win or tie as an Independent with Hurt on the GOP line, that he might be able to win big if he gets the GOP nod.
If Goode decides to run as a Republican all hope for a divided GOP goes out the door.
That the national tide is starting to swing back our direction. Ever since the State of the Union and that Q/A session with the Republicans a few weeks ago, the polling data has been better virtually across the board.
This poll here is very encouraging. I’ll spoil it, I’m working on the 3rd part of my house predictions right now, and I had the Repubs picking up VA-5. I’m not going to change my mind over 1 poll, but this tells me that my alleged optimism thus far is probably not without merit.
the only thing that bothers me is his favorables, but those aren’t terrible. Looks like his backbone is paying off.
I like these poll numbers. Perriello has supported democrat policy in its hole; and it’s good to see that supporting your sides policy ideas doesn’t make you unelectable.
but I think Perriello owes a lot of his success to his tremendous amount of work for his constituents. He has held town hall events all across his district and has been respectable to his opponents, including tea party members, while at the same time pushing for a progressive future. I also think that his stance against lobbyists and Wall Street helps him tremendously in his traditionally Democratic district. He’s a perfect example of how vulnerable Democrats should act. I wish Alan Grayson had followed Perriello’s style more closely, but we will see what happens in these districts.
I don’t think things have turned yet but I think there is mounting evidence to suggest they have stopped getting worse.
Now we gotta donate and campaign for him, and dems just might beat the national tide.