I think it’s safe to say that the days of six rounds of Red to Blue waves are well behind us. The DCCC has just launched their first slate of Red to Blue candidates for the cycle. The lucky 13:
| District | Candidate | Incumbent | PVI | 2008 (R) Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA-03 | Ami Bera | Lungren | R+6 | 6% |
| CA-45 | Steve Pougnet | Bono Mack | R+3 | 16% |
| DE-AL | John Carney | OPEN | D+7 | 23% |
| FL-12 | Lori Edwards | OPEN | R+6 | 15% |
| IL-10 | Dan Seals | OPEN | D+6 | 5% |
| KS-04 | Raj Goyle | OPEN | R+14 | 31% |
| NE-02 | Tom White | Terry | R+6 | 4% |
| OH-12 | Paula Brooks | Tiberi | D+1 | 13% |
| PA-07 | Bryan Lentz | OPEN | D+3 | -19% |
| PA-15 | John Callahan | Dent | D+2 | 17% |
| SC-02 | Rob Miller | Wilson | R+9 | 8% |
| TN-08 | Roy Herron | OPEN | R+6 | -100% |
| WA-08 | Suzan DelBene | Reichert | D+3 | 6% |
Of course, the DCCC is cheating a bit here by including a pair of Dem-held open seats (TN-08 and PA-07), but I suppose they didn’t feel the need to create a separate program called “Keeping Blue Blue” or somesuch. This is a bit of a dog’s breakfast, but it’s no secret that offense is not exactly a priority for Team Blue this year. Some will probably question the placement of Lori Edwards, who only managed to raise $35,000 in the 4th quarter. (Even Charlie Justice found a way to raise more than that!) I suppose that’s just a sign of the times.
Still, the most striking thing to me is the realization that, beyond this list, it’s hard to think of too many other potential Red to Blue targets that could constitute a second wave of the program. Beyond the winner of the PA-06, MN-06 and LA-02 primaries, and probably John Hulburd (AZ-03), I’m drawing a bit of a blank.
Another missed oppritunity by leaving CA-44 out of the picture.
COME ON, there is a great candidate running for that seat, and lost by only 2%. Why the hell is the DCCC focusing onraces where dems beat by upwards of 6%?!
It just boggles my mind why they are shooting themselves in the foot and not trying to take out a republican who is ON THE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE!?!?!?!?!
/facepalm
Well Hedrick, there is always 2012…
Josh Segall – he only lost by 6% in 2008
he started earlier and he’s been raising some good money
Once Democrats find a candidate FL-25 will probably make the second wave list.
Maybe MO-8.
Was it OK-5 where Obama improved the Democratic performance?
MT-At Large. Guess we’ll have to wait until Rehberg leaves.
VA-1 and VA-10.
MI-2, MI-3, MI-4, MI-8, MI-11, IL-13, IL-16. Basing those on presidential vote. And we also need top notch candidates.
McCotters results in 2006 and 2008 against noname opposition where so poor he has too be considered higly vulnerable.
candidates won.
Who were the 5th wave, and did any of them win?
That’s Tanner’s seat. I assume that’s a mistake……or maybe TN-08 is actually Zach Wamp’s seat, and the wrong candidate is listed? Either that, or the DCCC is revealing what they think of one of their own retiring incumbents!
My 25c worth of wisdom.
CA-45, MN-06, OH-12, AL-03 – should probably be there. Will make next round if our guys have good march fundraising quarters.
FL-25 – Once we get a candidate, especially if it is Garcia, this one will surely be included.
CA-44 – If Hedrick pulls in a monster march quarter.
TX-32 – ditto for Roggio.
IL-13 – ditto for Harper.
I mean that is the seat most likely to turn over for the Democrats, so why the notable omission. The only thing I can think of is that none of the Dem candidates really stand out from one another so the DCCC is staying out. I’m sure once the primary and there is a single Democratic candidate is over this seat will be moved to the Red to Blue list.
Joe Cao is toast whether he is on the list or not.
Both seats in which the challengers have outraised the incumbents in the last cycle, and in IN-03 the challenger actually has more cash on hand. (The challengers are Tom Hayhurst and Casey Clark, respectively.)
people with awareness and fundraising. Maybe that’s why they included FL-12 (my old home district).
Paul Ryan’s (WI-01) new brilliant idea is to replace Medicare with coupons for old people to buy private health insurance. I really want a strong competent Democrat to campaign against this.
It’s an R+2 district and Obama won it.
I know, I know…”We had our best chance already blah, blah.” The way Bachmann is though, she could say she supports extermination of Italian-Americans or something and we’ll be back in business here tomorrow.