SSP Daily Digest: 5/25 (Afternoon Edition)

Idaho: The only state holding primaries tonight is Idaho, where the only race that’s captivating is the Republican primary in ID-01 between Vaughn Ward and state Rep. Raul Labrador. Ward has quickly turned into one of this cycle’s SSP favorites, parlaying early establishment backing and financial advantages into a dead heat with the teabaggish Labrador through repeat instances of plagiarism and general cluelessness. In fact, the latest incident came just today, when Idaho’s senior senator Mike Crapo asked Ward to clarify an inaccurate e-mail that implied Ward had Crapo’s endorsement. In a Mason-Dixon poll from several days ago, Ward led Labrador 31-28. Politico has some extra background on the race today, focusing on the bizarre intramural rivalries within the Tea Party movement, as local Labrador-backing teabaggers have split off into the Tea Party People’s Front and the People’s Front of Tea Party over the national Tea Party Express’s backing of Ward.

The Republican primary in the Governor’s race is also tonight, with incumbent Butch Otter facing challenges from wacko businessman Rex Rammell (whom you may remember from the 2008 Senate race, where he ran as an independent) and Ada Co. Commissioner Sharon Ullman. Otter, who was a libertarian-leaning House member prior to being Governor, hasn’t really drawn the wrath of the Tea Party though, and is polling well; the same Mason-Dixon poll finds him at 60%, with no opponent over 6%. Most polls in Idaho close at 8 pm Mountain time (10 Eastern), with some closing at 8 pm Pacific (11 Eastern).

AR-Sen: The AFSCME is up with an $855K ad buy with a negative ad throwing the kitchen sink at Blanche Lincoln, even making fun of her absentee ballot screwup on Election Day. In Arkansas’s cheap media markets, that’s enough to keep the ads running all the way through the runoff.

CA-Sen: While we at SSP are pleased and even a little honored that political insiders seem to be not only reading us but actually taking seriously things that we say, we also realize that they might not be familiar with all internet conventions. SSP allows (and encourages) user diaries. What is said in these diaries is not reflective of the opinions of the site’s editors. So, for instance, if a user diary says that CA-Sen is a “Tossup,” that does not mean that Swing State Project is calling CA-Sen a “Tossup,” which is precisely what the Carly Fiorina campaign was busy tweeting today.

NC-Sen: If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em. Third-place Democratic primary finisher Kenneth Lewis has signed on as campaign chair for Elaine Marshall. Marshall faces a runoff against Cal Cunningham, who got a good endorsement of his own yesterday, from Jim Neal (who you might remember lost the 2008 Senate primary after running to Kay Hagan’s left).

WI-Sen: You see allegations of this kind of thing in small-ball state legislative contests a lot, but usually when you get up to the U.S. Senate level, you have your staffers do this kind of thing. Well, I guess Ron Johnson is a man of the people, willing to go out there and get his own hands dirty tearing down his opponents’ signs (as seen on this video).

AL-Gov: Artur Davis is out with a last-minute hit on Ron Sparks, throwing around “corruption” in reference to the thorny issue (in Alabama) of gambling. Usually campaigns like to close on a happy note; is Davis worried about a last-minute Sparks surge?

MN-Gov: With Margaret Anderson Kelliher having announced a running mate pick, the other two guys in the Democratic primary have now, too. Mark Dayton picked state Sen. Yvonne Prettner Solon. She represents Duluth, an important but oft-overlooked Democratic stronghold in the state’s north. Matt Entenza seems to be going for star power rather than geographical balance, though, reportedly asking retiring news anchorwoman Robyne Robinson.

CA-36: Looks like the Democratic primary between Rep. Jane Harman and activist Marcy Winograd is getting nationalized. Democracy for America (the descendant of the Dean campaign) is endorsing Winograd over the centrist Harman in this D+12 district.

HI-01: A day after sounding noncommital about running in the regularly-scheduled primary in the 1st after finishing a surprising 3rd in the jungle-style special election, Ed Case is now confirming that he will keep running. Case has challenge Colleen Hanabusa to jointly commission a poll on who’s more competitive against Charles Djou (who was sworn in today, by the way) and the loser would drop out. Um, maybe the time to do that would be before the weird special election, not before the conventional primary where Hanabusa’s probably the favorite.

OH-18: State Sen. Bob Gibbs and ex-state Agriculture Director Fred Dailey will have to wait a while longer for a conclusion to their super-close GOP primary, as SoS Jennifer Brunner ordered a recount. Gibbs finished ahead of Dailey by 156 votes, out of 52,700 (so it falls within the half a percentage point margin where an automatic recount is ordered by state law).

VA-02: The GOP primary in the 2nd seems to be following a familiar pattern this cycle: the establishment candidate wins with a plurality after the Tea Partiers and assorted other hard-right constituencies can’t unite behind any one standard-bearer. A POS internal poll from wealthy auto dealer Scott Rigell (who has a bipartisan contibution record that must be dismaying to the local teabaggery) has Rigell way in the lead at 47, followed by 10 for Bert Mizusawa, 9 for Scott Taylor, 6 for Ben Loyola, and 1 each for Ed Maulbeck and Jessica Sandlin. Virginia’s primary is on June 8, but remember that, unlike most Southern states, they don’t employ runoffs.

WI-07: EMILY’s List is getting involved in the open seat race in the 7th, now that state Sen. Julie Lassa has the Democratic field to herself. Their endorsement give her access to a nationwide donor base.

Nevada: Democrats in Nevada have been able to point to a steadily increasing registration advantage over the last few years, but that petered out in the state’s newest release of numbers. The GOP increased its share, not by gaining more new registrations than the Dems, but by losing fewer registrations! Dems lost 42K since January, the GOP lost 20K, and nonpartisans went down 13K. I doubt people are burning their registration cards in a fit of pique, which instead suggests that there’s a lot of migration out of Nevada this year as it’s particularly hard hit by unemployment and foreclosures.

Redistricting: Here’s some bipartisanship you can believe in: GOP Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart and Democratic Rep. Corrine Brown — both beneficiaries of minority-majority districts, including an ugly gerrymandered one in Brown’s case — joined together to sue to stop the Fair Districts initiative that will be on Florida’s ballot in November.  

43 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 5/25 (Afternoon Edition)”

  1. Regarding the bi-partisan re-dsitricting in FL, it makes me wonder.

    I’m sure we’ve all heard a variation on politics where if all politicians agree on it , it must be bad for the people/democracy/etc.

    So the toungue in cheek (I think) reference to bipartisanship is one of those cases where, we know if both the R’s and D’s are against letting the voters decide, its pretty much a certainty that voters SHOULD decide and most likely WILL vote to pass it.

    I dont like being cynical either, but what can we do?

  2. Ok, we get it, 24 is a popular show, I don’t watch the show, but this ad sounded SO ridiculous, I just had to watch it. Anyone with half a brain would see this as cheesy and lame.  Take a look.

    At least there wasn’t anything like this during LOST on Sunday.

    I cannot wait until DeVore gets 3rd in this primary so I can stop listening to his rabid fans on the internet (RS, Local OC Conservatives).

  3. I’m sorry, this has been bothering me for awhile and only SSPers would get this rant, but: whoever runs Emily’s List deserves a swift kick to the vagina. I’m sorry, WTF are they doing? They’re getting involved in primaries for absolutely no reason.

    They backed Terri Sewell, the most conservative candidate in a liberal seat, when there’s another perfectly good, pro-choice woman, Sheila Smoot, running? They’re backing the proven-corrupt* Jane Harman over her more liberal primary challenger, who also happens to be a woman?

    Of course, considering their previous leader was the completely incompetent, ineffectual-cocktail-party-loving milquetoast sellout Joe Solmonese, who is now running HRC (aka-Gay Inc.) into the ground, I guess it shouldn’t be a surprise that they’re so dumb.

    *I’m sorry, but in the court of public opinion, ending a skeezy phone call where you just promised to illegally interfere with an official investigation with “This phone call never happened” is proof enough for me.

    Is this just me, or does anyone else have an (apparently-strong) disgust with how Emily’s List, which should be an awesome organization, is being run?

  4. That’s about what I’ve been expecting to see. Aside from the inevitable yard sign war here in Virginia Beach, the non-Rigell candidates have been invisible. I’ve seen Rigell on TV and I’ve gotten a bunch of big, glossy mailers from him. No other candidate has had any ads up, and the only literature I’ve gotten was a flyer stuck in the door today from the Scott Taylor campaign.

  5. Conservatism v. Election vote percentage

    Per Ed Kilgore @538 and Alan Abramowitz@ the Democratic Strategist

    http://www.thedemocraticstrate

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com

    This is from Abramowitz’s study of Senate elections from ’00, ’02, ’04, ’06, and ’08

    For every additional one point increase in conservatism, Republican incumbents lost an additional three percentage points in support relative to their party’s presidential candidate.

    This is based on an 8 point scale of conservatism, taking Jeffords ’00 and Chafee ’06 as 0 points and Imhofe ’08 as 8 points. The delta is relative to the vote for the last R Presidential candidate.

  6. What a self-serving douchebag Case is…now he wants a POLL to see who’s more competitive against Djou? Gee, actually Ed, we just had a “poll” called an election, and you LOST. So that means by your logic, you are weaker and should drop out.

    Hmm, why else might he want a poll? Is it because all the other non-actual-voters-voting type of polls significantly underplayed Hanabusa’s actual support? But no, just one more poll to prove that you’re such a strong candidate…if Hawaiians weren’t so nice, you would be crucified for your douchebaggery.

  7. I asked the Libertarian candidate for Iowa governor about Rand Paul’s comments on civil rights. I posted his responses at Bleeding Heartland. Basically, he thinks Paul didn’t express himself well, and he supports several aspects of the Civil Rights Act, but he agrees that the Civil Rights Act should not have banned private businesses from discriminating.

    Cooper isn’t risking much by saying that, because his goal is not to win, but  to get at least 2 percent of the vote.

    In another sign Chuck Grassley may be worried, he is defending his civil rights record through his spokesperson. During the 1970s, Roxanne Conlin was Iowa Assistant Attorney General in charge of the civil rights division. She prosecuted the first cases under our state’s civil rights act.

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