Jack Conway (D): 43 (45)
Rand Paul (R): 51 (51)
Undecided: 5 (4)
SurveyUSA is out with its second post-primary poll in Kentucky, and it’s significantly more bullish on Rand Paul’s chances than other outfits like PPP, giving Paul a 51-43 lead over Dem AG Jack Conway. This is largely unchanged from two months ago, with Paul holding steady and Conway down two points.
It’s tempting to dismiss this as float within the MoE, given that Paul hasn’t exactly had the best two months since winning the primary. As is traditional with SurveyUSA’s polls, the crosstabs tend to be a little counterintuitive. Two months ago, Paul was winning both men (54-44) and woman (48-46), but now the gender gap’s intensified: Paul’s now winning men 57-38, but women have supposedly shifted to Conway 49-46.
The sample’s also shifted slightly in terms of partisan ID, going from 54-40-5 D-R-I to 50-37-12. Given (undoubtedly) the high number of old school Dixiecrats here, it’s little surprise that more “Dems” opt for Paul than Republicans for Conway. Conway is improving among Dems though, losing 25% of them to Paul, down from 29% two months ago. The same holds true for Paul (maybe owing to his reconciliation with Mitch McConnell), losing 11% of Republicans now, down from 16% two months ago.
Regardless, it seems Conway will have to do a better job of holding Dems, and primary loser Dan Mongiardo’s recent endorsement asshattery surely isn’t doing Conway any favors. Maybe the doctor we have to worry about for now isn’t the rogue ophthalmologist, but Dr. Dan instead?