Which party has had more dropped balls due to weak candidates (ahem, tea-baggers). Is this cycle really as bad for Dems as people think, or is it just as bad for the GOP?
Senate:
AK-Sen: Solid R –> Leans R; Teabag candidacy poses some risk
AR-Sen: Likely R –> Solid R; Keeping Blanche for the general sucks.
CA-Sen: Leans R –> Tilt D; Campbell probably would have won. Fiorina is an idiot.
CO-Sen: Likely R –> Toss-up; Teabag candidate could cost them big
DE-Sen: Likely R –> Strong D??? Oh, please. Oh, please!!!
FL-Sen: Solid R –> Lean R; Crist could have tucked this away.
IL-Sen: Solid D –> Tilt D; Damnit, Madigan, why couldn’t you just have run???
KY-Sen: Solid R –> Lean R; Rand Paul, need I say more?
MA-Sen: Solid D –> Scott Brown; Stupid Coakley
MO-Sen: Likely R –> Lean R; The Republicans would have this sewn up if Roy Blunt wasn’t so repugnant
NV-Sen: Solid R –> Leans D; Two words: Sharon Angle
NH-Sen: Likely R –> Toss-up??? Oh, please! Oh, please!
NY-Sen: Toss-up –> Strong D: No Guiliani and no Pataki means no pick-up for them.
NC-Sen: Lean D –> Likely R: Too bad about Roy Cooper
WI-Sen: Lean R –> TIlt D: Without Thompson, it becomes harder for them.
OVERALL SENATE: 12 Republican F-ups, 4 Democratic F-Ups; likely costs: Republicans lose 7 seats they could have had (CA, CO, DE, NV, NY, WI, NH), Dems lose 2 they could have had (MA, NC).
Governors:
CO-Gov: Leans R –> Solid D Biggest cluster-f*ck ever
FL-Gov: Leans R –> Leans D Rick Scott
GA-Gov: Likely R –> Lean R Nathan Deal is corrupt and a deeb
IL-Gov: Likely D –> Lean R Hynes would have been much better
MN-Gov: Toss-up –> Likely D Emmer sucks
NV-Gov: Lean R –> Strong R Rory Reid sucks
TX-Gov: Solid R –> Lean R Hutchison would have won easily
OVERALL GOVS: 5 GOP F-ups, 2 DEM F-ups
GOP Loses 3 seats they could have won (CO, FL, MN); Dems lose 1 seat they could have won (IL)
House:
AZ-03 Solid R –> Likely R
AZ-08 Toss-up –> Lean D
AR-02 Lean R –> Solid R
FL-08 Likely R –> Toss-up
FL-24 Likely R –> Toss-up
FL-25 Lean R –> Tilt D
HI-01 Strong D –> Charles Djou
ID-01 Lean R –> Likely D
IL-10 Lean R –> Lean D
IN-02 Toss-up –> Lean D
IA-03 Likely R –> Lean D
MD-01 Likely R –> Toss-up
MA-10 Toss-up –> Lean D
MI-07 Likely R –> Toss-up
MN-06 Solid R –> Likely R
NH-01 Lean R –> Toss-up
NY-13 Toss-up –> Lean D
NY-20 Lean R –> Lean D
NY-23 Lean R –> Lean D
PA-04 Toss Up –> Likely D
PA-11 Likely D –> Lean R
OVERALL HOUSE: 17 GOP F-Ups, 3 DEM F-Ups
GOP Loses 5-10 seats they could have won, Dems lose around 2-3 they could have won
Conclusion: While this cycle looks bad, it would be a lot worse if the GOP weren’t so stupid! They shoot themselves in the foot more than we do. What do you all think?
Senate
IN-SEN Lean Dem-> Likely R
ND-SEN Tossup-> Solid R
House
AR-01 Likely Dem-> Lean R
AR-02 Tossup-> Likely R
IN-08 Likely Dem-> Lean R
KS-03 Lean D-> Likely R
LA-03 Lean D-> Solid R
MI-01 Likely D-> Lean R
NH-02 Lean D-> Lean R
NY-29 Tossup-> Likely R
PA-07 Lean D-> Lean R
TN-06 Lean D-> Solid R
TN-08 Lean D-> Lean R
WA-03 Likely D-> Lean R
This could be what costs us the House.
PA-GOV – Lean Republican to Solid Republican (Dems should have went with Wagner. He could have made it close)
Norton making it Likely Republican? Really? That was leans at best, her polling against Bennet wasn’t that much better than Buck (although with Buck, I think we hold the seat while we probably lost it with Norton so…)
And make no mistake, Halter would’ve lost against Boozman as well, our only real chance of victory in Arkansas would’ve been for Baker or someone like him to win and for us to nominate Halter, but Boozman would’ve won by double-digits against either Lincoln or Halter.
WI-Sen: I have a hard time seeing this as an F-up. Feingold was Solid D across the board in everyone’s opening projections and I don’t think Johnson is a significantly worse candidate than a retread like Thompson.
TX-Gov: I don’t really see how renominating a scandal-free governor is an F-up. Plus, KBH’s stock has fallen as much as anyone’s this past year.
FL-08, 24; MD-01: Who could we have nominated that would have made these races Likely R? Perfect candidates don’t exist, I’m not upset with the candidates we have here.
IN-02, MA-10. NH-01: What are the problems here that merit the F-up label? I’m confused especially by MA-10; Joe Malone is a pretty good recruit but this race was always at least Lean D because it’s D+5 in Massachusetts.
Otherwise, awesome list. We have certainly had a lot more problems getting our preferred candidates through primaries than you have and it may cost us 2-3 Senate seats, a half dozen in the House, and a couple of governorships.
Or at least as I see it.
NV-Sen: Harry Reid had been preparing for the race of his life. The state party was building up its field. The state GOP’s first f*ck-up was in neglecting its own dilapidated infrastructure. From there on, the f*ck-ups snowballed in failing to recruit any credible candidates, failing to ensure Sue Lowden had anyone competent on board her campaign, leaving the opening for Tea Party Express to buy the nomination for Sharron Angle, and now shrugging off Angle’s campaign’s slow-motion implosion.
NV-03: See above on field operation and party infrastructure for the NV GOP. Now they had more luck in the candidate department in recruiting Joe Heck… He’s a great candidate on paper, but here in the real world he can’t campaign worth heck (pun intended). His possibly biggest f*ck-up was in resisting the teabaggers at first, then fully embracing them and mimicking Angle, but now acting like he’s not one of them. The many flip-flops just ruin his credibility.
NV-Gov: Honestly, I don’t think this is Solid R… More like Leans R, maybe Likely R if one really wants to believe The R-J. Still, I think the misallocation of resources hurt Rory Reid’s campaign. And just banking on a Gibbons GOP Primary win was never a smart choice. Rory’s only chance at this point is to catch Sandoval in his own royal f*ck-up.
Dems are hellbent on electoral defeat and the teabaggers are saving their sorry asses when they won’t save themselves.
More fuckups:
Theirs:
AZ-Gov. Brewer will go down in November. Any other Republican could’ve held this seat.
CO-04. Minor fuckup thanks to Tancredo/ACP. I still think Markey will lose, but it’ll be closer than it should be.
CT-Sen. Simmons could’ve Coakley’d Blumenthal to death.
CT-04. McMahon should’ve run here instead of for Senate.
FL-25. Rivera? Really?
IN-08. Right year, wrong candidate.
IN-09. Hill is beatable, but not by a clueless 30 year old from Carmel who lives in Bloomington.
IA-01, 02: Competitive seats, no candidates.
KY-03. Ditto.
NJ-03. Runyan fail.
NY-01. Split GOP opposition. Bishop will narrowly win now.
NY-13. Not just Lean D. Likely D. Staten Island GOP is that fucked up.
NY-23. Return of Doug Hoffman keeps this in our column.
Ours:
IL-Gov. Quinn should’ve stood down.
IL-17. Not so much a fuckup per se, but Hare shouldn’t have been caught napping.
KS-03. We had to have been able to do better than the retiring incumbent’s wife.
ME-01, ME-02. Once again, caught napping.
We should also add a sore loser category, in which the other winners of a primary refuse to endorse the nominee.
Dem sore losers:
AL-Gov: Artur Davis is a tool.
AR-01: Same goes for Woolridge.
GOP sore losers:
AK-Sen: I’d be pretty sore, too, if I was Murkowski.
KS-04: More like Pompeo is a sore winner.
Compare that to places where both parties did something right:
CA-03 Safe R -> Lean R.
CA-11 Lean D -> Tossup.
CA-45 Safe R -> Lean R.
CT-05 Likely D -> Tossup.
MI-Gov Lean R -> Likely R.
MS-01 Lean D -> Tossup.
NY-20 Lean D -> Tossup.
First of all, recruitment failures are their own separate category. Both parties go through this every cycle. Consider this optimistic outlook from Kos back in the summer of 2008:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/…
AZ: Napolitano
AL: Sparks/Davis
FL: Sink (not suggested by Kos but often by others)
KS: Sebelius
OK: Brad Henry
Throw in Beau Biden and that’s 6 seats that could be more competitive than they are now. But like I said, its a different category and to be expected every year. I’d take NY and WI off your list.
As for the ones you list, I disagree on several of them:
AR-SEN: Makes no difference
CO-SEN: As others have pointed out, Norton and Buck polled the same. Buck sacrifices moderation for base excitement, seems like a pretty even tradeoff.
FL-SEN: Both Crist or Rubio would be heavy favorites against Meek; the problem with Rubio isn’t that he ran, it’s that Crist made it a three-way race. I think virtually every Republican would prefer the scenario we have now (especially with Rubio’s lead growing in the polls) to a future Senator Crist.
NV-SEN: This is no defense of Sharron Angle, but its not like Sue Lowden or Danny Tarkanian were significantly better options.
NC-SEN: I disagree that Roy Cooper would make this a lean Dem race in this environment.
GA-GOV: Barnes makes this race a toss-up, regardless of the Republican.
NV-GOV: I don’t think any candidate would match up well against Sandoval.
TX-GOV: This is just wrong.
Finally, at the end of the day, Republicans still have a good shot at winning CA-SEN, CO-SEN, NV-SEN, NH-SEN, WI-SEN, and FL-GOV with the candidates we have now.
You’re forgetting Melissa Bean’s district (IL-8?) where the Republicans could have been competitive but nominated a total knucklehead.
then what about SC-Sen on our side?
That was epic fail.
If Chet Culver had decided not to run for reelection as governor of Iowa like Jim Doyle and Bill Ritter did for their races in Wisconsin and Colorado, respectively, would another Democrat possibly be faring better than Culver currently is against Terry Branstad? (Doyle and Ritter are like Culver in that they are unpopular with the voters in their states.) If so, who are some Democrats that might be polling better than him. I think WI-Gov is a tossup and CO-Gov perhaps would be if McInnis’ plagiarism wasn’t discovered. So the Iowa Governor’s race being a tossup without Culver in it seems plausible. The Lieutenant Governor of the state is associated too much with Culver so she would not be an option. The Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Treasurer of Iowa are all Democrats. I don’t know who else might have been a decent candidate this year for the Democrats if Culver decided to forgo a reelection bid. With the Republican political climate and Branstad’s stature as a candidate, Culver’s absence from the race might not have made much of a difference in impacting the Democratic Party’s viability in it.
I hate to be the one to say it, but what about PA-Sen? Sestak would have held his house seat, and Specter had (has?) a ton of cash on hand to defend, which helps Dems on that himself, giving the DSCC more money to shore up other races. I have a feeling that Specter would have played more hardball with Toomey than I’m seeing so far from Sestak. (and yes, I realize that Sestak would vote with us more often on legislation than Specter, but he has to get elected first.)
Also, I live in NY-29, and have not seen a single Ad/sign for the Democrat in the race on tv, in people’s yards, or anywhere. This section of upstate had tons of Massa signs in 2008, but I’m seeing more Paladino signs that anything. (I’m in Fairport, it’s a suburb or Rochester) However, local Republicans seem a bit nervous, and have more ads on tv than usual, so maybe they aren’t liking their internal polls? Either way, Cuomo should dominate, and help save a couple seats that would normally flip back. Remember in 2006, lots of close races went Dem due to Spitzer’s coattails. If Cuomo finishes in the high 60’s, then John Hall, Arcuri, will benefit. Alas, NY 29 is gone already, I wouldn’t be surprised to se Reed get about 60% plus, due to Dems nominating a nobody.