Who would it be advantageous for us if they decided to retire in this cycle? We know that in cycles that favor us, it is better for the old-timers to retire so that we aren’t burned by their leaving in cycles such as 2010. So, I’m rating on a scale from 1-5 how advantageous it would be for our incumbents to retire in 2012. 1 is extremely bad for us, 5 is extremely good for us.
CA-Sen: 4. Feinstein is old, and CA should get a rising star to get in. However, it probably doesn’t matter, as the CA-GOP has little future statewide anyway.
CT-Sen: 5. Avoiding an unpredictable 3-way race would be greatly helpful.
DE-Sen: 4. Getting someone less moderate than Carper would be a plus, but it probably doesn’t matter.
FL-Sen: 1: Nelson is probably the only Dem who wouldn’t get crushed. The FL Dems need to get their shit together. It is simply unacceptable that Nelson is the only statewide Dem in the state
HI-Sen: 5: We need Akaka to go while Lingle is still unpopular
MD-Sen: 3: Meh. Doesn’t matter either way.
MI-Sen: 2: Stabenow isn’t very popular, but the MI Dems need a few cycles to rebuild after their terrible collapse this last cycle.
MN-Sen: 2: Klobuchar is the most popular politician in the state. Though I don’t really see any GOP-ers as viable here.
MO-Sen: 2: McCaskill is going to have it hard enough. Though if she were to go, Robin Carnahan might be viable in a less unfavorable envirnoment.
MT-Sen: 3: Tester is good, but if he were to retire, then Schweitzer could get in and pound anyone.
NE-Sen: 1: Nelson’s probably a goner, but no one else can do it.
NJ-Sen: 4: Menendez is a pretty lousy incumbent.
NM-Sen: 4: Bingaman should probably get out before Martinez is termed out and can run here.
NY-Sen: 3: I like Gillibrand, but pretty much any non-toxic Dem can win here.
ND-Sen: 1: Conrad needs to stay as long as possible.
OH-Sen: 2: I don’t know if Brown would do better than any other generic Dem, but the Ohio bench is not that great and I would not want to risk it.
PA-Sen: 1: Casey is a great candidate, and the PA Dems don’t have that many other options with such a great profile.
RI-Sen: 3: Pretty much any Dem could hold this.
VT-Sen: 3: I love Sanders, but any Dem could win in VT.
VA-Sen: 3: Kaine might actually do better than Webb.
WA-Sen: 2: I don’t really want this opening up and tempting McKenna or Reichert.
WV-Sen: 1: I don’t know if WV Dems can continue their senate monopoly in the state if either Manchin or Rockerfeller retired.
WI-Sen: 3: Kohl makes this a sure thing, but it might be time to get Kind in before Ryan gets bored in the house.
To sum up:
We don’t want to see retirements in WV, WA, PA, OH, ND, NE, MI, MN, MO, or FL.
We DO want to see retirements in NM, NJ, HI, DE, CT, and CA.