Who would it be advantageous for us if they decided to retire in this cycle? We know that in cycles that favor us, it is better for the old-timers to retire so that we aren’t burned by their leaving in cycles such as 2010. So, I’m rating on a scale from 1-5 how advantageous it would be for our incumbents to retire in 2012. 1 is extremely bad for us, 5 is extremely good for us.
CA-Sen: 4. Feinstein is old, and CA should get a rising star to get in. However, it probably doesn’t matter, as the CA-GOP has little future statewide anyway.
CT-Sen: 5. Avoiding an unpredictable 3-way race would be greatly helpful.
DE-Sen: 4. Getting someone less moderate than Carper would be a plus, but it probably doesn’t matter.
FL-Sen: 1: Nelson is probably the only Dem who wouldn’t get crushed. The FL Dems need to get their shit together. It is simply unacceptable that Nelson is the only statewide Dem in the state
HI-Sen: 5: We need Akaka to go while Lingle is still unpopular
MD-Sen: 3: Meh. Doesn’t matter either way.
MI-Sen: 2: Stabenow isn’t very popular, but the MI Dems need a few cycles to rebuild after their terrible collapse this last cycle.
MN-Sen: 2: Klobuchar is the most popular politician in the state. Though I don’t really see any GOP-ers as viable here.
MO-Sen: 2: McCaskill is going to have it hard enough. Though if she were to go, Robin Carnahan might be viable in a less unfavorable envirnoment.
MT-Sen: 3: Tester is good, but if he were to retire, then Schweitzer could get in and pound anyone.
NE-Sen: 1: Nelson’s probably a goner, but no one else can do it.
NJ-Sen: 4: Menendez is a pretty lousy incumbent.
NM-Sen: 4: Bingaman should probably get out before Martinez is termed out and can run here.
NY-Sen: 3: I like Gillibrand, but pretty much any non-toxic Dem can win here.
ND-Sen: 1: Conrad needs to stay as long as possible.
OH-Sen: 2: I don’t know if Brown would do better than any other generic Dem, but the Ohio bench is not that great and I would not want to risk it.
PA-Sen: 1: Casey is a great candidate, and the PA Dems don’t have that many other options with such a great profile.
RI-Sen: 3: Pretty much any Dem could hold this.
VT-Sen: 3: I love Sanders, but any Dem could win in VT.
VA-Sen: 3: Kaine might actually do better than Webb.
WA-Sen: 2: I don’t really want this opening up and tempting McKenna or Reichert.
WV-Sen: 1: I don’t know if WV Dems can continue their senate monopoly in the state if either Manchin or Rockerfeller retired.
WI-Sen: 3: Kohl makes this a sure thing, but it might be time to get Kind in before Ryan gets bored in the house.
To sum up:
We don’t want to see retirements in WV, WA, PA, OH, ND, NE, MI, MN, MO, or FL.
We DO want to see retirements in NM, NJ, HI, DE, CT, and CA.
Not sure about NM at all. What is the Dem bench there? Teague might be too conservative to win the primary. Heinrich and Lujan are very young. I suspect that Bingaman is still probably their best bet. I think you may be overestimating Martinez’ appeal. She seems to be pretty far to the right, and in this past election she had the luxury of running to succeed an unpopular Dem governor in an all-time Reep wave year.
For either party makes it a bad idea to pick and choose like this. It will be hard enough to hold several seats with incumbents running let alone opening up more targets.
I like Bingaman, and I don’t like Lujan or Heinrich, so I’m good with him staying. I’d rather see Martinez stay, even if just for racial representation. I’d rather both Nelsons retired; I don’t want the DSCC spending a dime in NB and I think Rick Scott will definitely help Dems over the next couple of years. I’d also like to see Stabenow leave; with Granholm gone, she’s the last big unpopularity; even unpopular enough that I think Schauer or Peters would do better. And I don’t think there’s much chance of Kohl running again, is there?
Ron Kind would in all likelihood win this one, but if Russ Feingold runs again this race would probably be competitive (anywhere from toss-up to lean D depending on the national environment) Of the two, Feingold seems like he wants it even more. I think it might be better in the long run for Feingold to run again in 2012 and for Kind to take on Ron Johnson in 2016, unless the national environment is looking really bad for Dems in 2012, in which case Kind should run to make this seat safe.
I highly doubt Ryan will run for the senate. He is arguably the 3rd most powerful member of the GOP caucus, and positioned to be powerful for a long, long time in the house. Hard to see him giving that up for an iffy run for senate.
Keep in mind that California is an anomaly given that it’s so huge and enormously expensive to run there. Given that, even with very positive demographics it’s conceivably unpredictable. So I say better safe than sorry and go ahead and replace Feinstein now, when the Democratic turnout will be higher. I don’t have any beef with Sen. Kohl, but given the swingyness of Wisconsin, it’d probably make sense for him to retire in a high turnout year as well.
But why should Bingaman retire? He’s not even 70. He’s been around a long time, but isn’t remotely old by the standards of the Senate. As to WV, there’s no way Manchin will retire, but an important thing to keep in mind is that the Republicans have no bench in the state beyond Capito. It’ll be a hard seat to old down the line, but you can’t beat someone with no one.
I still feel Democrats would be better off trying to run someone new against Tom Latham in the redrawn IA-03. I would like to see Leonard Boswell retire. The kind of campaign he ran against Brad Zaun would not work against Latham.
She’s a great campaigner, she takes care of her constituents, and just because Michigan joined the great Republican wave of 2010 does not mean that this is the way it will be in the future. The incompetent Mark Brewer will be gone as the Michigan Dem party chairman, and many Michiganders are generally more comfortable with the Democratic Party than with the Reps. If the economy picks up a bit by summer 2012, and especially if the state unemployment level gets down below 10%, Debbie will be fine. Besides, she will have Obama’s coattails–many minority voters in Detroit and Michigan’s other larger cities stayed home in November, and that will not be the case with Barack running in 2012.
My point here would be to have very few retirements. I think to keep the incumbents for the senate and gubernatorial races would help leaving free money for the campaign for the reelection of Obama and for gain new house seats. I think would be bad to have too much changes, then I rate as 1 the unnecessary changes or the changes what would open some chance for the republicans.
My rank would be:
LEVEL 1: Very bad for the democrats
DE-Sen T Carper: Unnecessary open this seat. Still better give not to M Castle some chance of return.
VT-Sen B Sanders (Ind): Unnecessary open this seat.
NM-Sen J Bingaman: Unnecessary open this seat. W Richarson is very ambitious and can look to an open seat.
RI-Sen S Whitehouse: Unnecessary open this seat.
DE-Gov J Markell: Unnecessary open this race.
NH-Gov J Lynch: Unnecessary open this race.
MD-Sen B Cardin: Unnecessary open this seat.
WA-Sen M Cantwell: Unnecessary open this seat.
VT-Gov P Shumlin: Unnecessary open this race.
NY-Sen K Gillibrand: Unnecessary open this seat.
MN-Sen A Klobuchar: Unnecessary open this seat.
WV-Sen J Manchin: Unnecessary open this seat.
MO-Gov J Nixon: Unnecessary open this seat.
NJ-Sen R Menendez: Looking to the age of F Lautenberg and to the weakness of the democrats in the state, I think this would be one of the retirements with worse potential consequences. With him as incumbent the most prominent republicans wait to Lautemberg seat.
PA-Sen R Casey: Looking to the weakness of the democrats in the state, better keep an incumbent what can keep out the race the most prominent republicans.
MI-Sen D Stabenow: Better keep a candidate what can keep still the most dangerous republicans out the race.
WA-Gov C Gregoire: I think she can keep still the most dangerous republicans out the race.
FL-Sen W Nelson: Without him the democrats would likely lose the seat. With him seems winnable again.
OH-Sen S Brown: Without him the democrats would have more risk of lose the seat.
MO-Sen C McCaskill: I see not alternative here. The seat is in risk but she can be competitive.
ND-Sen K Conrad: Without him the democrats would likely lose the seat. With him maybe too. E Schafer can be dangerous.
NE-Sen B Nelson: Without him the democrats would likely lose the seat. With him surely too.
LEVEL 2: Bad for the democrats
WV-Gov E Tomblin: The best will be necessary here for keep the office. I glad see strong candidates in this primary including the new governor.
LEVEL 3: Not good, not bad
WI-Sen H Kohl: Here R Feingold shows the same strength of H Kohl in the last poll of PPP. It would be interesting to know if more democrats are in the same level.
VA-Sen J Webb: Only 3 in the rating if T Kaine run for the open seat. I would like some of them running for governor in 2013.
MT-Sen J Tester: Only 3 in the rating if B Schweitzer would run for the open seat. J Tester and B Schwetzer can be good candidates for an appointment to the Obama administration. Still the seat can be in risk.
NC-Gov B Perdue: Difficult race. I hope the democrats find the best, but the risk of lose seems very high.
LEVEL 4: Good for the democrats
CA-Sen D Feinstein: In a presidential year, the risk of lose this seat is not high, and the two senator and the governor-elect in California are over 70 years old.
LEVEL 5: Very good for the democrats
HI-Sen D Akaka: It is so risky to have two senators over 88 years old (in 2012) from Hawaii. The governor-elect is over 70 years old too. Obama running for president is the best environment what we can have for a necessary change.
CT-Sen J Lieberman (Ind): A three way race can be more unpredictable. I would like J Lieberman retires, and if it is possible since January 2011.
As you can see, I hope the primary works for WV-Gov. I would accept some changes for some races: Feingold replacing Kohl, Kaine replacing Webb, Schweitzer replacing Tester and someone new for NC-Gov. And I would find actively the change for CT-Sen, HI-Sen and CA-Sen.
Agreed on Feinstein.
Definitely agreed on Lieberman, but either through retirement or defeat by a Democrat, I want to see the last of him. And I think I won’t, because he’s just the kind of insincere, “moderate” establishment talking head they like on TV news talk (or opinion-manufacturing, if you prefer) programs.
Agreed on Carper.
Agreed on Nelson of FL.
Agreed on Akaka.
Agreed on MD.
Not sure what to think on MI. Ask me again toward the end of next year.
I can’t see Klobuchar retiring. Does anyone expect that?
As you said, MO is really a question of environment. The environment has to be favorable for a Democrat to win. And right now, I can’t predict that. If I had to make a prediction this far out, I’d go with a Republican winning, but ask me again in 2012.
As for MT, is there any evidence Schweitzer is interested in a legislative position?
I don’t see how anyone could disagree with you on NE.
Totally agreed on Menendez. He sucks, and almost any other reasonable Democrat in the state would have a better chance to win than he does.
Not sure about Bingaman. He’s pretty popular, isn’t he? If he doesn’t run for reelection, depending on the climate in 2012 and who runs, the Democrats might lose that seat. To be sure, the Democrats might very well survive his retirement, but I sure wouldn’t celebrate it.
Why are you even bringing up the possibility of Gillibrand retiring after less than a full term in the Senate? If anything, she’s ambitious and may run for President within a decade or so.
Agreed on Conrad, and much as I dislike him in certain ways, he’s better than whichever Republican would replace him.
Not sure on Ohio, but if the last Senatorial election is relevant evidence, it sounds like you’re dead right!
Agreed on PA and RI, but the idea of Whitehouse retiring at this juncture seems bizarre to me.
Agreed on the rest except for WI. I think those who say there’s very little chance of Ryan leaving his leadership position in the House to become a junior Senator are making logical sense.