SSP Daily Digest: 12/14

• AK-Sen: To quote Troy McClure, “here’s an appealing fellow… in fact, they’re a-peeling him off the sidewalk.” Yes, Joe Miller didn’t even wait until today to make his decision about whether or not to appeal to Alaska’s Supreme Court; he already pulled the trigger on his appeal (despite the fact that everyone but him knows that he’s, at this point, roadkill). Arguments are set for Friday, so (since he can’t introduce new evidence, which the trial judge found sorely lacking, at the appellate level) this should get resolved pretty quickly.

• CT-Sen: Linda McMahon is sounding very much like she’s ready to run again in 2012 against Joe Lieberman and a Dem to be named (maybe she found another $40 million under the couch cushions). She has a meeting planned with the NRSC’s John Cornyn, presumably to discuss her next move. Meanwhile, Joe Lieberman (who lost control of his own vanity party, the CfL) is seeming likelier to run again, thanks to encouragement from both sides of the aisle, and he may even have a useful vehicle to do it with: the new “No Labels” party-type thing courtesy of Michael Bloomberg. Meanwhile, there’s more follow-up from yesterday that, yes, Rep. Joe Courtney is considering a run for the Dem nomination (which could set up a primary against fellow Rep. Chris Murphy); he says he’s “looking at it” and, if he runs, will announce soon. That pretty much leaves Rosa DeLauro as the lone Dem House member in the state who hasn’t said yes or no, and today, as you’d expect, she said a loud “no.”

• ME-Sen: Roll Call seems to have read the same article as everybody else yesterday that had that baffling interview with Andrew Ian Dodge — the tea party impresario who claims to be in contact with a killer-app candidate who will unite the teabaggers and defeat Olympia Snowe — and just flat-out concluded that Dodge is the mystery candidate himself (meaning that he’s spent the last few months talking to himself?). As added evidence, Dodge doesn’t dispute a local blog’s reports that he plans to run.

• MI-Sen: Despite his strong name-rec-fueled showing in a PPP poll last week of the GOP Senate primary (or perhaps because of it), ex-Gov. John Engler is now saying that he has no plans to run for Senate, and will be staying in his role as head of the National Manufacturers Association. Strangely, the biggest-name candidate beyond Engler associated with the race, soon-to-be-ex-Rep. and gubernatorial primary loser Peter Hoekstra, sounded pretty indifferent about it when asked by a reporter yesterday, saying “We’ll see. I’m not sitting around yearning to get back into office.”

• MN-Sen: PPP is out with GOP Senate primary numbers, and it’s a familiar story: the GOP base is irretrievably enamored with a female politician who’s poison in the general election. Rep. Michele Bachmann (who loses the general 56-39 to Klobuchar) leads the field at 36, far ahead of more establishment figures like outgoing Gov. Tim Pawlenty (20) and ex-Sen. Norm Coleman (14). They’re followed by new Rep. Chip Cravaack at 7, Tom Emmer at 6, John Kline at 5, Laura Brod at 4, and Erik Paulsen at 2. There’s not much indication that Bachmann is interested in a Senate run — in fact, she’s currently sending out fundraising appeals based on the threat of a rematch with Tarryl Clark — but there’s also word that Amy Klobuchar’s camp is most worried about facing Bachmann of any of the possible opponents, probably because of her national fundraising capacity (although it may also be a bit of public don’t-throw-me-in-that-briar-patch posturing).

• NV-Sen: Need some evidence that Rep. Shelly Berkley is planning a Senate run? National Journal looks at her repositioning, as one of the key members of the party’s liberal wing in the House to break away and support the tax compromise, suggesting that she’s trying to tack toward the center to play better in the 2nd and 3rd districts. (Of course, it’s worth noting that she wasn’t that liberal to begin with, as a member of the New Dems, not the Progressives, and with a National Journal score usually putting her around the 60th percentile in the House.)

• IN-Gov: Evansville mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel isn’t in a hurry to declare whether or not he’s going to run for Governor, although with Evan Bayh’s recent demurral, the iron would be hot. The key indicator, though, will be whether Weinzapfel runs for another term as mayor; the election is in 2011, and it’s assumed that if he does run for re-election a gubernatorial run is unlikely. He’ll need to make a mayoral decision by Feb. 18.

• MT-Gov: The Dems have lined up a real candidate for the governor’s race, maybe the best they can do if AG Steve Bullock doesn’t make the race. Dave Wanzenreid, if nothing else, has a long resume: currently a state Senator, he served previously as a state Rep., as both minority and majority leader in that body. He was also chief of staff to ex-Gov. Ted Schwinden and then state labor commissioner in the 80s.

• Crossroads: American Crossroads, after its avalanche of late-cycle ads a few months ago, is already getting back in the TV game. The Karl Rove-linked dark money vehicle is spending $400K on radio advertising in the districts of 12 Dems who won by narrow margins, urging them to vote in favor of the tax compromise package. Tim Bishop, Jim Costa, Gabrielle Giffords, Gerry Connolly, Ben Chandler, Jason Altmire, Bill Owens, Maurice Hinchey, Heath Shuler, Gary Peters, Joe Donnelly, and Sanford Bishop are all on the target list.

• Votes: There’s a strange array of “no” votes on the tax compromise that passed the Senate 83-15. The Dems have a few votes from the left (Bernie Sanders, Sherrod Brown, Pat Leahy, Russ Feingold (although it’s gotten kind of hard to tell if he’s doing anything from the left or not anymore)), but also some votes from some pretty avowed centrists (Jeff Bingaman, Kay Hagan, Mark Udall) too, of which Bingaman is the only one up in 2012. John Ensign was one of the few GOP “no” votes, although you’ve gotta wonder whether it’s because he’s trying to save himself in a primary by appealing to the far-right or if he’s just given up and voting his conscience.

• Census: While you wait for the main course on Dec. 21 (the day for reapportionment hard numbers), the Census Bureau is out with a gigantic appetizer. They’re rolling out their first-ever 5-year estimates from the American Community Survey (their one-year samples aren’t that reliable, but over five, they are). The ACS covers a lot of the deeper demographic information that used to covered by the Census “long form,” covering stuff like poverty, housing values, commute times, and education. Information is available all the way down to the block level, but here’s an array of county-level maps to start with.  

221 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 12/14”

  1. But why does the far right hate it? Purely because of the decicit? But they are all about low taxes right? Oh my head hurts with those people.

  2. If I’m the Michigan GOP I doing the Meposian Dance of Joy that Engler is taking a pass, that is as sure a loser as Bachman would be in Minnesota. If I was a betting man (and I am NOT) I’d put money on Terry Lynn Land being the GOP Nominee. Hoeksta was probably already sick of DC and doesn’t want a return ticket, Candace Miller seems to be enjoying the House and not likely to risk what will be a very safe seat and growing seniority to run for the upper house – plus I think the state party types like Land a lot and will fall in behind her (though not necessarily be able to clear the primary field)

  4. PPP’s recent state polls give me the same feeling (though turnout in presidential years is higher), similar thing happened in their early 2010 polls, looked good for Dems till they switched to likely voters, so it’s very hard to know the real picture.

  5. 1.  Is anyone else afraid that Linda McMahon could squeek through in a three-way?  She’d probably start out with a floor of 40%.  While the CT-05 representative is a great candidate, do we really see Lieberman’s candidacy crashing below 20%?

    2.  Rasmussen has been remarkably quiet post-election while PPP has put out a number of polls.  Do you think they’re staying mum since they’ve been pretty discredited after the 2010 elections?

  6. MN-Sen: I am surprised PPP polled Laura Brod and it makes me wonder what they’ve heard about her.  She was an up and coming state rep who was widely talked up as a gubernatorial candidate for 2010, but then she abruptly said she had health issues to deal with and decided not to run for anything in 2010, including her state house seat.  Any other Minnesotans know about her better as maybe I just didnt follow her story enough.

    IN-Gov: This was exact same mentality Minneapolis mayor had for his gubernatorial run in 2012.  I even personally asked him once when I got the chance and he told me flat out he had a decision he needed to make.  He chose both and he managed to run a real campaign and a shadow campaign all without looking douchey.  Caveats, he didnt win both and the endorsement process probably self-selects people who would overlook issues like running for two offices at the same time.

  8. Seriously, he shifted right in ’07-’08, but now he’s becoming incredibly laughable in his transparent attempts to pander and sound like he’s been right-wing all along.  First, he attends that “Values Voters” event that he, McCain, Giuliani and Thompson avoided in late ’07.  Now, he’s saying the tax cut deal is bad because it both increases the deficit and is only a temporary extension of tax policy.  ROFL! If it were permanent, the effect on the deficit would be far greater, Mitt!  All it takes is a basic graphing calculator and a list of stats to figure that out.

    Anyway, here’s his op-ed:  http://www.usatoday.com/news/o…

    Can any Bay Staters here tell me whether Romney has lost his marbles since he left the governorship?

  10. anyone else get a White House Christmas card? Those are soooo cool. I feel like a kid seeing my name on an envelope from the WH. I didn’t think I would get one this year as I didn’t give any money to the DNC or organizing for America but I was pleasantly surprised.  

  12. He’s been one of the guys leading the charge on both opposing the tax/benefits compromise and supporting DADT repeal. His cousin, Sen. Tom Udall, is substantially more moderate.

  14. State Rep. Fred Mills, and leading candidate for an open senate seat special election in January, that could determine control of the state senate, has switched to Republicans. This is a crushing blow to Dems, as this one was a real rising star and was not old like the others. He was the Dems only hope of winning Troy Hebert’s (I) senate seat, and he announced his switch on the first day of filing. Now that he has switched, and is still running for this seat, this is almost guaranteed to go Republican. I said a few weeks ago when talking about this seat. This switch is not particularly surprising. Mills was an ally of Bobby Jindal and former Lt. Gov Scott Angelle, who also switched to the Republican Party in October. He was also an ally of state Sen. Mike Michot (R). They both hosted joint fundraisers for Bobby Jindal and Scott Angelle this year.  

  15. Hey GOPVOTER–you mentioned you wanted to set up a site like this one for the other team.  Have you got it running yet, or is it still in the works?  I’m interested in joining.

  16. Mayor of Springfield Illinois dies from an apparent suicide. Very sad. I couldn’t believe it when I read it because I had just randomly looked at his wikipedia page a day before he died and read the whole thing for the first time. The same thing happened when I read a former Illinois Senate nominee’s page earlier this year, maybe I’m bad luck. I hate to sound insensitive but does anyone know of possible candidates to succeed him?

    http://www.sj-r.com/carousel/x…

  18. I was glad to see this on the FP of DK

    The Post-ABC poll suggests that the administration is right about one point: The “professional left” and liberals are not the same. MSNBC host Keith Olberman said last week Obama had lost the Democratic base with the tax deal.

    Not so much. As Dan Balz and Jon Cohen write, “his approval rating among liberal Democrats stands at a lofty 87 percent, almost identical to where it was in an early October poll and down marginally from a survey later that month.”

    Perhaps reason is returning to the rest of the liberal blogsphere.

Comments are closed.