SSP Daily Digest: 9/20 (Afternoon Edition)

AR-Sen: Move along, nothing to see here. Talk Business, via Hendrix College, is out with another poll of the Arkansas Senate race. They find John Boozman leading Blanche Lincoln 56-29, with 5 for indie Trevor Drown. (The previous Talk Business poll, taken by Zata|3, had it at 57-32.)

DE-Sen: Trying to put his money where his mouth is, Jim DeMint, via his Senate Conservatives Funds, is going on the air with a new cable TV spot on behalf of Christine O’Donnell. The buy is for at least $250K. As I expected, it makes very obvious hay out of Harry Reid’s dumb reference to Chris Coons as his “pet.”

FL-Sen: This is a long read, but worth checking out, not just from a partisan standpoint but also as insight into the constant revolving door between politics, big law, academia, and the nebulous world of “consulting.” It’s a thorough going-over of Marco Rubio’s finances over the years, looking at some of the already-known stuff (his foreclosure problems and overuse of state party credit cards) but also at the connections that have gradually allowed him to enrich himself.

KS-Sen, KS-Gov: SurveyUSA finds… brace yourselves… Republicans in the lead in Kansas! The Senate race appears to be out in no-man’s land, with Jerry Moran leading Lisa Johnston 66-24. The Governor’s race, however, remains moderately interesting, with Sam Brownback up over Tom Holland 59-32. Still not a good result, but that’s a 15-point swing in Holland’s favor from last time, as he now leads among self-described moderates.

KY-Sen: This poll from last week is probably interesting enough for the front page… but it’s getting more than a little stale, after our having repeatedly fumbled attempts to write it up, so we’re just dropping it off here (figuring many of you have already seen it on over at Daily Kos). PPP, on behalf of Big Orange, finds that Rand Paul leads Jack Conway 49-42. On the plus side, not much of an enthusiasm gap here, thanks to Paul’s polarizing nature; it’s just a solidly red state.

LA-Sen: Two different polls in Louisiana tell different stories. Dem pollster Bennett Petts & Normington, on behalf of the DSCC, sees a 10-point race, with David Vitter leading Charlie Melancon 48-38. On the other hand, Republican pollster Magellan sees it as an 18-point race: 52-34. The truth, as is often said, probably lies somewhere in between.

UT-Sen: The Senate half of the Dan Jones poll (for the Deseret News and KSL-TV) finally showed up. In what could be called “not a surprise,” the Republican is winning in Utah. Mike Lee (who turfed out Bob Bennett at the state convention) is easily beating Sam Granato, 52-25.

WA-Sen: Here’s a nice story about hypocrisy… or hypoc-Rossi, in this case. Dino Rossi made a campaign stop at a Whidbey Island shipyard last week, one that’s nearly doubled its workforce from 130 to 210. Turns out, though, that the shipyard received $841K in stimulus funds, and the yard’s owner says the expansion is a direct result of the stimulus. (Interestingly, Rossi, without any guidance from Admiral Ackbar, may have sailed right into A TRAP: he showed up at the invitation of the yard’s owner, who has donated to Patty Murray in the past.)

WI-Sen: If that Rossi hypocrisy story seems kind of small potatoes to you, well, don’t worry, because Ron Johnson seems to have, over the last few weeks, been exposed as the absolute master of hypocrisy about engorging yourself on the government teat all the while raging against it. While he can claim that building-a-rail-spur-to-Pacur thing was in the distant past, now it comes out that in March 2009, in his role as board member of Oshkosh’s Grand Opera House, he sought stimulus funds for renovations to the opera. Y’know, the stimulus bill that’s KILLING US ALL AND ALL FUTURE GENERATIONS!!1!  

WV-Sen: Joe Manchin has had good relations with the state-level Chamber of Commerce, who’ve backed him in the past. They must have put in a good word for him with the national organization, as now the US Chamber of Commerce is endorsing him too, quite the rarity for a high-profile Dem.

FL-Gov: Rick Scott’s previous defense against the massive Medicare fraud problems at his former healthcare company Columbia/HCA was that he’d have stopped them if only he’d known they were going on (which, considering his job was to run the company, should have demolished his credibility right there). But now it’s been revealed that his legal team was keeping him apprised, at least on the issue of trying to skirt a federal anti-kickback law.

FL-22: They’ve had to call out the biggest fundraising gun of all for Ron Klein, seeing as how he’s up against a nutty opponent but one with a direct line into seemingly hundreds of thousands of teabaggers’ wallets in Allen West. Barack Obama will fundraise for Klein in the Miami area on Oct. 11 (at the home of former NBA star Alonzo Mourning).

MS-01: The Tarrance Group is out with another Alan Nunnelee internal giving him a single-digit lead over Travis Childers in the 1st: this time, he’s up 48-41.

NY-23: Would you believe the NY-23 count is still going on? Although it seems like Matt Doheny is the likely victor in the GOP primary, with a 582-vote lead right now, 1,969 military and overseas ballots remain to be counted. In Friday’s count, Doug Hoffman added 207 votes while Doheny added 177.

American Crossroads: Rove, Inc., seems to be becoming the main conduit for billionaires looking to put their thumbs on the electoral scales but skeptical of the Michael Steele-helmed RNC: they raised $14.5 million in the last 30 days, almost doubling their year-to-date total.

NRCC: The NRCC is out with a bonanza of IEs in 23 different districts (click the FEC link for specific numbers): PA-11, VA-09, PA-08, WI-07, NJ-03, PA-03, IL-14, MI-01, MI-07, PA-07, NC-07, IL-11, AL-02, AZ-01, CA-11, FL-02, KY-06, MS-01, TN-08, TX-23, VA-05, IN-02, and IL-10.

SEIU: So, while the CoC is endorsing the Dem in West Virginia, the SEIU is endorsing the not-Dem in Rhode Island: they’ve thrown their backing behind indie Lincoln Chafee. (United Nurses and Allied Professionals will also endorse Chafee today, and the AFL-CIO is currently meeting about which way to go.) The SEIU is also out with a couple IEs of their own, spending $250K against Tim Walberg in MI-07 and $435K against deep-pocketed Jim Renacci in OH-16.

SSP TV:

CO-Sen: The DSCC is out with three different ads focusing on various aspects of Ken Buck’s nuttery, including the 17th Amendment and opposition to common birth control methods

CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal’s ad focuses on pushback against various Linda McMahon misrepresentations

FL-22: Ron Klein calls out Allen West for his various veiled calls for armed uprising

HI-01: Charles Djou’s first ad of the general is a positive spot listing accomplishments from his short time in office

IL-10: Bob Dold! ties Dan Seals to Nancy Pelosi in a health care-themed ad

PA-10: Here’s the winner of the day: Chris Carney quickly and effectively summarizes the nasty links between Tom Marino and Louis DeNaples

PA-15: Charlie Dent goes after John Callahan’s bookkeeping as mayor of Bethlehem

WI-08: Steve Kagen dips into the well of 50s-era public-domain stock footage to hit Reid Ribble on his calls for Social Security phaseout

Rasmussen:

MD-Gov: Martin O’Malley (D-inc) 50%, Bob Ehrlich 47%

MD-Sen: Barbara Mikulski (D-inc) 54%, Eric Wargotz (R) 38%

NH-Gov: John Lynch (D-inc) 48%, John Stephen (R) 46%

NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 54%, Carl Paladino (R) 38%, Rick Lazio (C) 0% because Rasmussen didn’t bother to include him

WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 43%, Scott Walker (R) 51%

WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 50%, John Raese (R) 43%

136 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 9/20 (Afternoon Edition)”

  1. I don’t think the “pet” comment is really going to affect Coons one way or another, especially not in a blue state like Delaware.

    It’s like saying so-and-so votes with Nancy Pelosi 97% of the time (stupid anti-Heinrich ads), they don’t resonate and they’re ultimately a waste of money for whoever spends them.

  2. Don’t know if anyone noticed, but I didn’t see this noted in my SSP search:

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n

    Over the course of 100,000 simulations of our forecast model, Republicans finished with an average 223.4 House seats – down incrementally from 225.3 last week – and Democrats with 211.6 seats. Republican odds of winning the chamber dipped slightly from 67 percent to 63 percent.

    That’s 45 seats, if memory serves.

    This is based on a generic R poll lead of 7.5%, which would correspond to an R gain of 55 seats by the Sabato model (linked from the 538 article) — which matches the Gallup model here http://www.gallup.com/poll/124… .

    So Nate’s model is including factors such as local polls, as well as Cook/CQ/Rothenberg/Sabato, which suggests actual D candidates outperforming (or Rs underperforming) the generic ballot.

  3. Citizens United is really going to make it hard to maintain a democracy in the months/years to come if the Koch brothers et. al. can just throw around $millions without a second’s thought (since they will get repaid a hundredfold by their legislative republican voters in the legislature).

  4. Those are actually pretty good numbers for Holland–as people start paying attention, votes shift to Democrats… as it should be in Kansas. 🙂  Things are looking better downballot, too, with AG Six, SoS Biggs & Treas. McKinney all up significantly, though still trailing. Six & McKinney both significantly outraised their opponents, so they should be able to get their numbers up even higher when ads start.

    This poll’s crosstabs seem credible this time…which is odd for SUSA, no?  

  5. about a month out in ’06 and ’08 when races generally tightened, and discussion that this was a normal phenomenon as undecideds came home in the patterns of their underlying affiliation. Wonder if that generally is seen as an across the board bump for the party behind nationally, or a tightening irrespective of who is ahead in a race.

  6. Now, with Washington slipping away, and maybe California as well, and Delaware gone, do the Republicans have any remaining path to a Senate majority?  

    I’ll be generous and put Feingold in the same category as Sestak for now, though I think we still need more polling on that contest to be sure.

    R’s sure to win:

    North Dakota

    Arkansas

    Indiana

    R’s ahead:

    Pennsylvania

    Wisconsin

    Races virtually tied:

    Illinois

    Colorado

    Nevada

    D’s ahead:

    Washington

    California

    Connecticut

    It seems to me that the Republicans will not only need to run the table in the 3 toss-ups, but will need to pull the next 3 seats out of their ass too.  West Virginia is the only other seat that could possibly become competitive, and I think Rass has his finger on that one.  Delaware is cooked.  

  7. They have Melancon winning Dems only 51-34.  There’s no doubt Louisiana’s full of a lot of DINOs and very conservative Dems, but that number is pretty strange.  Even as Obama was losing Louisiana in a landslide he still won Democrats 75%-24%.  Melancon’s definitely down but I feel its closer to a ten point race than an 18 point one.  

  8. Terry Branstad keeps throwing up false numbers in his campaign ads, no matter how many times he is fact-checked. And Branstad’s whole argument against Culver’s I-JOBS infrastructure bonding program is hypocritical, because he also praises NJ Gov Christie, who has bonded for more in one year than Culver has in four. Also, New Jersey’s debt load was way higher than Iowa’s to begin with.

    Last Tuesday was the first Culver/Branstad debate (two more to come in October). Selzer is polling soon for the DM Register, possibly this week or next week. We’ll get some indication of whether the race is tightening.

    I didn’t care for the first couple of ads Culver ran after Labor Day, but he’s got a decent hard-hitting one up now:

  9. in Colorado.  I generally hate it when the Democrats attack some of our candidates for “being anti-women”, but in the case of Ken Buck, there may be a grain of truth to it.

  10. Didn’t the candidates for FL-Sen and CO-Sen recently have debates?

    I didn’t see them.  Could someone tell me how well each candidate came off, and how did Florida and Colorado voters react to the debates?

  11. GOPVoter and Darth Jeff (and anyone else from Lousisana that I may have forgotten), what is going on down there? Is Cao running a great campaign, or do people in the district have serious reservations about Richmond? Much as I like Cao, I had written off his chances of ever winning re-election a long time ago.

  12. is joining other handicappers.

    moved to lean r: markey, halvorsen, vanhaaften/bucshon, bass/kuster, kosmas, kratovil.  dreihaus, kilroy, chet edwards :(, fincher/herron.  

    i agree with all of these for sure.

    surprisingly, it appears the d-trip pulled out of AZ for the other reason: triage

    to tossup: kirkpatrick, harry mitchell (both surprises to me), jim marshall (another surprise), john hall, steve kagen (somewhat surprising), and…chris carney? really? that would be sad.  

    lungren also, surprisingly, was moved to tossup.  

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