Public Policy Polling (9/14-16, likely voters, 7/23-25 in parentheses):
Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 50 (49)
Carly Fiorina (R): 42 (40)
Undecided: 8 (11)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
PPP finds Barbara Boxer in surprisingly good shape in the California Senate race, with almost no falloff from the previous poll in July. That July poll was of registered voters, so that’s enough for PPP to conclude that there’s no enthusiasm gap in California, or at least a very small one. (That’s similar to what CNN/Time found in WA-Sen last week, so maybe there’s something west coast-specific going on.) This yields a LV sample that broke 57-36 for Obama in 2008 and that still approves of him 53/42.
Boxer’s approvals are lower, 46/46, and she trails among independents 50-38. However, California is blue enough that there are adequate Democrats planning to vote, to cancel that out overall. It certainly can’t help matters for Carly Fiorina that her favorables are much worse, at 34/42… and with Boxer finally having gone negative on the airwaves regarding Fiorina’s tenure at HP, those faves may get worse before they get better.
PPP is finding that Feingold is trailing by double digits in Wisconsin due to a massive enthusiasm gap. That stinks… I guess that means that Boxer is in pretty good shape since PPP has been very republican leaning as of late.
but I loved the HP ad. Leave it to Boxer to throw the knock out punch in the early rounds.
I don’t know if they’ll “get better.” Finger’s crossed, I’m hoping (and thinking) Fiorina stays on the canvass (metaphorically speaking of course).
And Carly’s attacks on Boxer for being a “millionaire,” don’t even get me started. Pathetic.
for a conservative Republican. Boxer is a really weak senator and incumbent, and the fact that she is still winning just suggests how blue the state is and how allergic it is toward conservatives.
I still think Fiorina can win, but it will take a blunder by Boxer for it to happen. I doubt Fiorina can win this race with her own actions.
seems high. Comment on the ppp blog mentions that Dems usually were about low to mid 40s in California.
Even when some Pollsters COUGH RASMUSSEN COUGH had her down by as much as five.
What I want to know is how Jerry Brown is doing, that is what I am really worried about. I don’t know if I can deal with another 4 years of a republican governor here in California, not to mention one like Meg Whitman.
This seems like one of the few polls that caused me to sigh in relief. I can’t wait to see Delaware now that O’Donnell is the nominee. I just can’t imagine someone voting for Carly Fiorina, seriously folks HP computers, those are cheap plastic pieces of crap.
Just because Scott Brown won in Massachusetts does not automatically mean a Republican exactly like him, much less Fiorina, can win in California, even if the Dem is Coakley-like. On the surface, California and Massachusetts are blue states, though the dynamics from within are very different.
Massachusetts has been stagnant the last few decades and has not changed all that much demographically, and Obama actually slightly underperformed in 2008, while he improved dramatically in growing, diversifying California (which looks very different in 2010 than in 1980), which has seen a clear, definitive trend leftward. And I find it interesting that native son Kerry did not move the PVI needle in MA much.)
Massachusetts
1984: D+6.50
1988: D+7.83
1992: D+8.26
1996: D+11.27
2000: D+14.21
2004: D+14.25
2008: D+11.75
California
1984: R+1.61
1988: D+1.52
1992: D+3.58
1996: D+3.78
2000: D+4.21
2004: D+6.11
2008: D+7.44
Just how on earth did PPP come up with that voter model? 49-33-18?! Huh? In ’08, Democrats only made up 42% (!) of the voting electorate. I’d be stunned if Dems could hold that number, let alone raise enthusiasm to a considerably higher level.
My guess is we’re actually looking at around a 39-34-27 electorate. If I apply the PPP cross-tabs to my model, we get a vastly different result…
Boxer – 81/9/38 = 45%
Fiorina – 11/86/50 = 47%
Undecided – 8/5/12 = 8%
Which basically mirrors the results Survey USA has been finding.