78 thoughts on “NY-24: Arcuri Leads by 8”

  5. Dems seem to be in more trouble in the outer burbs than upstate. I’d much rather keep Hall than Arcuri, though.  

  7. This is one of three districts Nate Silver rates as a perfect tossup: 50% chance that the seat will change parties.

    Arcuri’s 8-point lead makes me think Nancy just might hold on to that gavel.

  8. A lot of us believed that Arcuri’s votes for and then against HCR would doom him, by depressing the base.

    If the X-tabs are to be believed, Arcuri is getting 27% crossover from Rs, while leading among Ds 77-16.

    Siena, IMO, is the gold standard for NY polling.

  9. Looking at the crosstabs it shows Arcuri crushing among indys at 48-34 and taking a huge portion of Repbublicans at 60-27, while Hanna only takes 16% of Dems. I think a lot of the problem for Hanna is when you look at the Region voting. He is from Oneida County, as is Arcuri (he was DA there) and that is really the heart of the district population wise, as well as being more of GOP stronghold than some of the other areas (Geneva, Auburn, Cortland are all Dem-leaning cities and make up the population centers of the southern and western parts of the district).

    I think Hanna is just unknown outside of his base in Oneida County and Arcuri’s strength there somewhat negates that strength. I think the key to Hanna’s campaign would be to reach out to the other areas of the district, some of which can be quite Republican, as well as consolidate his GOP base in Oneida. The two are about even financially so we will see if Hanna can use the money to good effect or whether the D-trip, NRCC or other groups will pump some cash in (remember, if the NRCC had thrown just a little money this way in 08 we could be talking about Hanna as the incumbent).

    Nevertheless, great poll for Arcuri but I think it shows a lot of room for Hanna to grow.  

  10. …was that series of generic ballot polls that showed us down by about 10, all in the same week around Labor Day.

    That strangely gave me some peace of mind because it felt like we’d hit the “bottom” I’d felt we had actually reached awhile earlier.  So those polls come out, and I immediately felt, “good, now it can’t get any worse, it will get only a little better.”  That the media narrative has put all the eggs in the basket of GOP House takeover helps us in the expectations game, as it gives our voters a bit of a wake-up call as the election gets closer.  And it actually helps us feel OK “the morning after” if we lose the House but the net change in seats is in the low 40s, putting the GOP in the low 220s with no margin for error and no real working majority to do a lot except on the margins, far from where the teabaggers want their party to be.

    I was, indeed, one who thought Arcuri’s flip-flop on health care was fatal for a guy who already had run such a bad campaign the last time around.  I’m very happy to eat my words and thoughts, as I’m rooting for victory for every last House candidate running on the Democratic line.

  11. I thought Arcuri was toast. A few weeks ago I made a list of districts that I was pretty sure the Dems would lose. Since then I have moved Arcuri, Kratovil (MD), Titus (NV), and Teague (NM) back to uncertain.  

  12. The stimulus is viewed pretty favorably. Me thinks that suburban voters are much more concerned with the price tag and rural voters like what the stimulus has done for them in terms of projects. Perhaps this explains the national mood somewhat?

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