Glengariff Group for WDIV-TV and the Detroit News (9/15-16, likely voters, no trend lines):
John Dingell (D-inc): 49
Rob Steele (R): 30
Others: 8
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Dingell has been in the House for 27 terms, and occupies a district that’s given over 60% of the vote to Democrats in each of the past three Presidential elections. It’s disturbing that this race is even a topic of discussion, but that’s the nature of the year. Dingell won re-election two years ago with a whopping 71% of the vote, but it doesn’t look like he’ll enjoy the same margin when he gets his 28th term.
This isn’t very good.
the kind of race that Fred Upton (59-39) and Mike Rogers (57-40) got in 2008. Just indicative of the wave, but no serious danger.
is a nightmare and every D on the ballot will be dragged down.
We talked about this in other threads about the PA races and NYS congressional races. How suburban voters were moving to the GOP faster than rural voters in this wave.
I think this has a lot to to with the focus on the economy and taxes.
The Tea Party has moved the GOP’s focus away from social issues (Guns, God & Gays) to fiscal issues of Taxes and Spending.
This is pulling moderates and independents back towards the GOP fold.
If the DSCC is doing triage right now they really need to look at the suburban districts. Because that where the surprises of this cycle might come.
As for Dingell I still go by the old rule of any incumbent polling under 50% is in trouble.
While I think he wins in Novemeber, he will have to do something he hasnt done in a VERY long time. Campaign hard in a general election.
for MI-07/9/11. I still think we can win the first two narrowly as Peters won by a pretty large margin and Walberg is very flawed as a candidate though the Dems. are going upstream in those races. The 11th is probably gone as a pickup opportunity which is to bad if we had made a race of it in 08 we would probably have the seat now.
…but that was a district that was far less friendly if I recall.
However the Ann Arbor/Ypsi district of Lynn Rivers (which the Republicans put into Dingell’s 10 years ago) did have some scary pre-election polling though luckily they really got their act together and closed it strong.
Dingell and his father have held this seat for nearly 80 years and he hasn’t had to campaign in a while. One also must wonder how good he will be on the campaign trail at his advanced age (not to say he won’t be good, since Daniel Inouye is still an excellent campaigner both for himself and other Dems.)
If Steele gets some traction and the DNC gives up on the governor’s race, Dingell is going to have to at least work for this one.