SSP Daily Digest: 9/20 (Morning Edition)

  • AK-Sen: This is pretty lulzy – Lisa Murkowski is busy reassuring people that she’ll still have the support of K Street as she pursued her write-in bid. In a year like this, that’s the message you want to run on? It’s even sadder that she probably feels like she has to reassure her corporate masters that she’s still there for them.
  • DE-Sen: Merry meet and blessed be! Bill Maher unearths a 1999 clip of Christine O’Donnell (a frequent guest on his show), and promises there’s more where this came from:

    • I dabbled into witchcraft – I never joined a coven. But I did, I did. … I dabbled into witchcraft. I hung around people who were doing these things. I’m not making this stuff up. I know what they told me they do. […]

    One of my first dates with a witch was on a satanic altar, and I didn’t know it. I mean, there’s little blood there and stuff like that. … We went to a movie and then had a midnight picnic on a satanic altar.

    Yesterday, though, O’Donnell decided to skip visits to some other satanic altars, namely Sunday talk shows “FOX News Sunday” and CBS’s “Face the Nation.” Dissing Bob Schieffer I can understand – I mean, that’s straight out of the Sarah Palin/Sharron Angle hide-in-a-deep-underground-bunker playbook. But the friendly confines of FOX? How will she get a job there when she moves on to her next gig in the grifter’s circuit?

  • AK-Gov: Last week we learned the disappointing news that Republican Bill Walker, who scored 30% running against Gov. Sean Parnell, would not make a third-party gubernatorial bid. But now he’s saying that Lisa Murkowski has inspired him and he might yet wage a write-in campaign. Godspeed, good buddy!
  • IL-Gov: GOP-affiliated robopollster We Ask America has their first survey of the race, finding Republican Bob Brady at 42, Gov. Pat Quinn at 32, and everybody’s favorite, Scott Lee Cohen, at 5.
  • NY-Gov: Speaking of SLC, it looks like the NY GOP has a reverse Scott Lee Cohen situation on their hands. Basically, the less-crazy guy – Greg Edwards, who was supposed to be Rick Lazio’s running-mate, won the Republican Lt. Gov. nomination. Revolting meat-bucket (and, dear lord, gubernatorial nominee) Carl Paladino preferred many-time loser Tom Ognibene instead. There’s chatter now that Edwards may stay on the ballot but not really run, or will try to drop out (a somewhat tricky proposition in NY). If he does successfully bail, the state GOP would appoint a replacement (presumably Ognibene, if Paladino’s in charge). Anyhow, I suggest you click through for Celeste Katz’s full story, because there are so many layers and permutations to this story that I simply can’t summarize them all.

    • Ognibene may be the only guy actually not running away from Paladino as fast as he can. GOP comptroller nominee Harry Wilson has refused to endorse Paladino, and attorney general nominee Dan Donovan is basically saying the same thing. Haven’t seen any word yet as to whether senate nominee Joe DioGuardi feels the same way.

  • CO-03: Republican Scott Tipton is now saying he’s no longer a Seventeenther (you know, a maniac who wants to get rid of the direct election of United States senators), despite having answered a teabagger survey on that very question in the affirmative. He’s also claiming that he doesn’t want to abolish the Department of Education. Live by the yes-no question, die by the yes-no question.
  • MO-04: Another day, another Dem gets endorsed by the NRA. This time, it’s veteran Ike Skelton.
  • NY-15: Adam Clayton Powell, who took just 25% against Charlie Rangel’s 53% in a fractured field, is saying he already has plans to run again. Of course, this district’s lines (and even number) could change substantially before 2012.
  • NY-19: Big Dog Alert (retroactive)! Bill Clinton did a fundraiser for Rep. John Hall in Cortland Manor this past weekend. Of course, Clinton lives (“lives”) just outside the 19th CD in Chappaqua (in the 18th).
  • PA-10: In a previous digest, we related the story of then-U.S. Attorney Tom Marino providing a personal reference for “businessman” Louis DeNaples’s bid to get a casino license – while DeNaples (euphemistically described as “having possible ties to organized crime”) was under investigation by Marino’s office. These dealings led to Marino’s resignation in 2007 (and, surprise surprise, he soon wound up with a nice sinecure as DeNaples’s in-house counsel). Marino claimed in April that the Department of Justice gave him permission to serve as a reference to DeNaples (then why did you resign?), but has never provided any proof. Now the AP is saying that a DoJ source tells them that there is no evidence that Marino ever received such authorization. The heat is on.
  • DCCC: The D-Trip has added Annie Kuster (NH-02) and Bill Keating (MA-10) to Red to Blue.
  • DC-Mayor: Deposed incumbent Dem Adrian Fenty says he won’t try to run in the general as a Republican. Given that there are probably 19 registered Republicans in the entire district, I’m not sure how this was even an idea in the first place.
  • Polltopia: Go tell Public Policy Polling where to poll next.

    • SSP-TV:

    • DE-Sen: DSCC ad says Christine O’Donnell will “fit right in in Washington,” thanks to her personal fiscal irresponsibility. Uh, do they remember who is in charge in DC?
    • IL-Sen: CQ reports that the DSCC is set to go up here this week for a quarter mil, but no links to actual ads yet
    • PA-Sen: Joe Sestak’s new ad compares his navy service to Pat Toomey’s service on behalf of Wall Street

    • FL-Gov: Two Alex Sink ads, one dinging Rick Scott for harping on endlessly about Obama, the other talking about schools
    • NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo’s second spot, featuring an endorsement from a former state Republican Party chair
    • MA-10: Fresh off his primary win last week, Dem Bill Keating is up with an ad on a good issue: his pledge not to raise the retirement age for Social Security (contrasting with his Republican opponent’s desire to do so)
    • MI-07: SEIU spot hitting GOPer Tim Walberg for failing to support the auto industry and wanting to eliminate Social Security (CQ says buy is for $250K)
    • NC-11: Two spots from Heath Shuler: the first a touching ad about his efforts to build new veterans’ health clinics, the second hammering Jeff Miller for supporting the bad kind of SSP
    • NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter’s first ad, a mostly positive spot emphasizing that “whether it’s popular or not,” she “always fights for what she believes in,”
    • NY-19: George Pataki’s PAC Revere America has a spot hitting John Hall with scaaaaary music over his vote in support of healthcare reform
    • NY-23: Bill Owens’ first ad, which redistricting geeks will appreciate, emphasizing just how big the district is physically
    • NY-24: Richard Hanna personally narrates a negative ad attacking Mike Arcuri for his support of the stimulus and bailouts – I think it’s pretty effective
    • OH-13: GOPer Tom Ganley’s spot touts his work with the FBI (as a civilian) to bring down some mob extortionists
    • NRCC: CQ rounds up ads targeting Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03), Bryan Lentz (PA-07), Paul Kanjorski (PA-11) and John Adler (NJ-03) (click here for Adler ad)

    Independent Expenditures:

    • Americans for Job Security: The right-wing front group is launching some huge buys: $443K against Mike Arcuri (NY-24), $526K against Larry Kissell (NC-08), and $712K against Heath Shuler (NC-11)
    • NY-19: Curses! Those meddling ophthalmologists! The (non-rogue) American Academy Of Ophthalmology, Inc. Political Committee (aka OPHTHPAC) is throwing down $143K on behalf of one of their own, Republican eye doctor Nan Hayworth (NY-19)

    127 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 9/20 (Morning Edition)”

    1. Would bet money that when Arcuri said, “We won’t have to pay this debt, it will be up to our children and grandchildren,” he was not citing that as a fabulous reason to accumulate lots of debt, as Hanna suggests.  Seems more likely that he would have said that in cautioning against the accumulation of debt in some fashion.  The context is not given.  

      Smacks of a an out-of-context, cheap shot by Hanna.  Hope Arcuri is able to respond.  If Arcuri really did say that in the context suggested, then stupid, stupid, stupid on him.  But I highly doubt it.

      Maybe Hanna learned from Ray Meier, who accused Arcuri of dialing a phone sex line on the taxpayer’s dime.  Turned out it was a wrong number (one number off of the number he called seconds later) and Arcuri hung up within two seconds.

    3. Rubio’s fiscal behavior personally doesn’t resemble what he claims to believe politically.

      http://www.heraldtribune.com/a…

      We’re going to find out real fast whether Crist or Meek is running a competent campaign by whether either or both turns this story into 30-second ads.  This is the most effective narrative available to use against Marco.  He’s not quite scary enough ideologically, there’s not enough material to exploit to make that case except with slivers of the electorate.  But there’s plenty of material to disqualify Rubio personally with a broad array of voters.

      If Crist and Meek don’t start directly attacking Rubio fast, they’re incompetent candidates.

    4. The registration numbers for DC are 76% Dem, 7% GOP, 16% no party, so the idea of trying again in November, when the Republicans and independents can vote wasn’t completely insane, and I saw several Fenty fans arguing for it. They underestimate the number of Democratic votes he’d lose between the primary and the general for making the switch. Fenty rightly realized that there was no point in humiliating himself just to lose a second time.

      Also, the Board of Elections ruled that Fenty couldn’t accept the Republican nomination, even though he got the most write-in votes, because he would’ve had to be a Republican at the time of the vote. Switching afterward isn’t enough. But by the time of that ruling he’d already endorsed Gray anyway.

    5. I mentioned this in a previous post, but there actually was a path to victory for Fenty had he ran on the GOP line. The short version is that he only lost the primary by 12k votes and there are 30k registered Republicans and 75k independents in the city, to go along with the 330k registered Dems. The main problem would be if Fenty could hold his Dem votes and at least split the indy vote after switching parties, since he more than likely would pick up the vast majority of GOP votes in the general. The point is moot now but it would have been really interesting had a “Republican” been elected, or even had a shot, in one of the nation’s most Democratic cities.  

      WSJ went over a scenario like that here:

      http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/…

    7. I just hope it’s not too late.  DSCC was hitting Toomey hard as well in a recent ad. Where are the Club for Growth quotes from Toomey?  Are they being saved for closer to the election day – to try and copy the Specter “I changed parties so I can get re-elected” strategy?

    11. this poll makes a lot of sense.  Here on Earth, where he’s down 5-9 according to the last few polls, not so much.

      I said last week that SUSA’s methodology this cycle will show a close race in just about any Dem district where the Republican has raised six figures.  CA-20 was Exhibit A.  WA-09 is Exhibit B.

    12. I mean, I dont mind people practicing a little witchcraft, maybe going on a few satanic dates, but, like most Americans, I draw the line at coven membership. That’s when you get into serious whak-job territory. Also when you think the government is putting human brains into mice.

    14. With the new Wisconsin PPP poll, I don’t want to overreact, but I’m thinking the wave is going to be more like a tsunami in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois..

      The sad thing is Feingold is actually a very good senator too..

    15. Here it is. And even better, this is a “Likely Voter Screen”, so this means more Democrats for Boxer are now being motivated to vote. I’ve figured for some time that the GOP was getting overconfident in thinking Fiorina can win California, but this confirms it for me.

    16. http://www.businesswire.com/ne…

      Check out the games POS plays with semantics.  Ilario Pantano leads by 7 among the “most likely voters,” but McIntyre leads by 6 among “very likely voters.”  I’m guessing McIntyre leads by more than 6 among just plain “likely voters,” but who the fuck knows?  Weird.

    17. Out west, in WA, NV, CO, and CA, the democrats are doing better than they were a month ago.  But back east, things don’t look good in MO, KY, OH, PA, IN, FL, etc, and now it looks like you can throw WI in that mix (which is a SHOCK to me, I would’ve never expected Johnson to be leading, much less outside the margin of error in a PPP poll)

    18. PA will come around. I wish Sestak would just start his blitz of Toomey already because he is a very flawed candidate. I don’t know WTF Fisher is doing in Ohio, but he managed to turn a small lead from June into a double-digit deficit.

    21. Perhaps the most fascinating personal political recovery I’ve seen all cycle that no one talks about is Deval Patrick’s.  Patrick looked dead in the water a YEAR ago.  His job approvals and favorables were underwater in Corzine territory.

      And all year he’s climbed back up to being a 50-50 Governor.

      A Suffolk University poll just out (link below) has Patrick up 41-34-14 on Baker and Cahill.  They have Patrick at a positive 48-43 favorability.  His job approval is slightly underwater at 44-46, but that’s nearly break-even and far better than most Democratic Governors in trouble right now.  His “deserves reelect” is at a poor 39-52, but when pushed on who they actually vote for, respondents still pick Patrick over the others by a healthy margin.

      http://www.suffolk.edu/images/…

      Meanwhile, Rasmussen a few days ago had Patrick up 45-42-5 on Baker and Cahill in their latest MA-Gov poll.  That Rasmussen poll has Patrick at 49-50 job approval and 52-46 favorability.  Obama’s job approval is at 54-45 in the state.

      This all comes after Patrick had lagged in polling for much of last year and early this year.

      And yet, without my wanting to take time to detail it all, I can’t get over how much the political media keeps talking about Patrick as if he’s in the same condition as Corzine was.  They talk about Baker having so much upside and Patrick being in a tenuous position and how brilliant the RGA was to attack Cahill to help Baker.  All this while Patrick shot up from the 30s to the 40s in 3-way trial heats, and now even with Cahill down in Chris Daggett territory……and this is RASMUSSEN giving Patrick consistent leads even with all this!

      I actually see Patrick as a bright spot this fall for us.  I hope he can recover his popularity come a 2nd term, which I increasingly think he’s likely to win.

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