SSP Daily Digest: 9/21 (Afternoon Edition)

AK-Sen: Joe Miller finally fessed up to what we told you about last week (concerning farmland he owned in Alaska): he’s a hypocrite on the farm subsidy issue, having gladly accepted them while railing against them. This time, it’s about a different parcel of farmland in Kansas that he owned before moving to Alaska, receiving $7K in GOVERNMENT HANDOUTS FOR LAZY UNPRODUCTIVE PEOPLE WHO’VE MADE BAD LIFESTYLE CHOICES!!!1! between the years 1990 and 1997. And check out the excuse he offers: “This was back in the ’90s, the situation the country was in was far different than now.” (Uh huh… when some guy named Bill Clinton was running a surplus.)

DE-Sen: Whoops. Prior to getting their establishment asses handed them to them on the end of a mob-wielded pitchfork, the Delaware state GOP filed a FEC complaint against Christine O’Donnell for illegal campaign coordination with and excessive contributions from the Tea Party Express. Now that they’re saddled with her as the nominee, the FEC is telling them no-backsies, and that they can’t withdraw the complaint… the complaint against their own nominee.

NC-Sen: And now it’s Richard Burr’s turn in the hypocrisy dunk tank. An announcement of 240 new jobs and a $130 million expansion at Cree Inc. in Durham is drawing four major Democrats and Richard Burr to celebrate. Burr, unlike the Democrats, though, did not support the stimulus package that, y’know, was behind that expansion.

NV-Sen: John Ensign may not even survive till the general election in 2012, if Jon Ralston’s tweet is to be believed. John Chachas, the little-known self-funder who barely made a ripple in the overcrowded 2010 GOP Senate field but who seems likely to do better in a one-on-one, is saying he may run against Ensign in two years.

GA-Gov, GA-Sen: Mason-Dixon for Georgia Newspaper Partnership:

Roy Barnes (D): 41

Nathan Deal (R): 45

Michael Thurmond (D): 33

Johnny Isakson (R-inc): 52

(MoE: ±4%)

While this isn’t as nice as the InsiderAdvantage poll showing the race tied in the wake of disclosures about Nathan Deal’s financial disarray, Mason-Dixon does show a close race. This appears to be their first poll of the Barnes/Deal matchup, so there’s no sense of whether things have tightened.

RI-Gov: Faced with the choice between a labor-friendly indie candidate and a Democrat whom they endorsed for state Treasurer four years ago, the AFL-CIO finally decided to punt, and endorse neither Lincoln Chafee nor Frank Caprio, remaining neutral. Recall that Chafee got SEIU and nurses’ union backing yesterday.

AZ-05: There’s a new internal out in the rematch in Arizona’s 5th that founds its way across someone’s desk at the Hill. It’s from Democratic pollster Harstad Strategic Research and is apparently on behalf of the Harry Mitchell campaign, giving Mitchell a narrow lead over David Schweikert, 45-44 with 6 to the Libertarian candidate. That’s kind of pushing the limits on when it’s a good idea to release an internal, but with Schweikert having claimed an 8-point lead in his own internal and the DCCC’s ambiguous pull-out announcement about this district triggering some alarms, Mitchell seemed to need to show he’s still right in the thick of things.

UPDATE: The Mitchell campaign writes in to clarify that this isn’t their internal poll (which the Hill had originally reported, then apparently deleted), but rather is on behalf of Project New West. Mitchell’s up 51-29 among independents, which helps him prevail even in a sample that’s slightly GOP-skewed (46% GOP, 30% Dem) You can see the polling memo here.

LA-02: Anzalone-Liszt for Cedric Richmond (9/12-15, likely voters, no trendlines):

Cedric Richmond (D): 45

Joe Cao (R): 35

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Here’s the antidote to that bizarre Joe Cao internal from a few months back, that gave him a 25-point lead over Cedric Richmond. Even this Richmond internal, which has him up by 10, indicates that this isn’t going to be a total cakewalk for the Dems, though; with only 35%, Cao is still way overperforming the GOP baseline in this district that went for Barack Obama with 75% of the vote in 2008.  

MN-01: Tim Walz picked up an endorsement from an unexpected corner yesterday. He got the backing of former Republican Senator David Durenberger, who support Walz’s stance on “uniting people” but also his support for health care reform. (Durenberger is also supporting IP candidate Tom Horner in the governor’s race.)

PA-15: Muhlenberg College for the Allentown Morning Call (9-11/16, likely voters, 4/19-27 in parentheses):

John Callahan (D): 38 (33)

Charlie Dent (R-inc): 49 (45)

Jake Towne (I): 3 (?)

Undecided: 10 (22)

(MoE: ±5%)

John Callahan’s one of the best Dem challengers to a GOP incumbent this cycle, but he’s got a lot of work ahead of him to make up that last 12 points against Charlie Dent.

NRSC: Here’s an interesting Roll Call dispatch from the front lines in the war between the NRSC and the Army of One known as Jim DeMint. DeMint is apparently dissatisfied with current NRSC allocations, and is moving money from his own personal stash to bolster Sharron Angle in Nevada ($156K) and Ken Buck in Colorado ($250K). The NRSC has reserved $3.2 million for Buck in TV time, more than any other candidate, so his concerns about Colorado may be misplaced.


IL-Sen: The DSCC hits Mark Kirk for voting against unemployment extensions and minimum wage raises

MO-Sen: Roy Blunt disappears down the meta rabbithole, with an attack ad about Robin Carnahan’s attack ads

NV-Sen: Can we just have Harry Reid handle the advertising for all our candidates? He turns up the heat even higher on Sharron Angle, saying she wants to privatize the VA and “end our promise to our veterans”

IA-Gov: Two separate ads for Chet Culver, one featuring endorsements from his immediate family members, the other making the case that “hey, Iowa’s not that bad off compared to all those other states”

NM-Gov: Susana Martinez’s ad is a positive bio spot recounting her early prosecuting days

SC-Gov: Vince Sheheen’s TV ad features a litany of reasons to be suspicious of Nikki Haley, recited by various average folks

OH-16: The DCCC’s newest spot is a tax-time two-fer, hitting Jim Renacci on supporting the 23% “fair tax” and on his own pile of back taxes owed

OR-05: Kurt Schrader’s newest is a testimonial from a thankful veteran

TN-08: Roy Herron’s newest ad hits Stephen Fincher mostly on his various campaign finance discrepancies of misfilings and mysterious loans

WI-07: Julie Lassa’s newest ad features criticism from a Sean Duffy underling from the DA’s office in Ashland County, focusing on his neglect of that stepping-stone job


AK-Sen: Scott McAdams (D) 25%, Joe Miller (R) 42%, Lisa Murkowski (W-I-inc) 27%

CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 47%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%

NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 49%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 39%

RI-Gov: Frank Caprio (D) 30%, John Robitaille (R) 23%, Lincoln Chafee (I) 33%

Rasmussen (appearing as Fox/Pulse):

CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 45%, Meg Whitman (R) 45%

CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 47%, Carly Fiorina (R) 46%

DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 54%, Christine O’Donnell (R) 39%

NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 45%, Sharron Angle (R) 46%

OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 41%, John Kasich (R) 47%

OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 36%, Rob Portman (R) 49%

PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 39%, Tom Corbett (R) 49%

PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 40%, Pat Toomey (R) 48%

171 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 9/21 (Afternoon Edition)”

  1. Mark my words. He hasn’t lived here in Nevada since he was a kid, and he clearly lacked either the establishment support or the teabagger support to go anywhere in the primary. At this point, IF Ensign steps down, it could be a Dean Heller vs. Sue Lowden vs. Danny Tarkanian battle royale. Baby Tark is clearly trying to woo Sharrontology’s teabaggers onto his side. Lowden is trying to make peace with the GOP’s new rabblerousers taking charge. And Heller is just hoping the other two will make jokes out of themselves and each other yet again.

  2. Tim Walz also voted against TARP and the auto bailout I believe so whether or not you disagree with those votes it has to give him a little street cred with some moderate independents you would think.  

  3. into Sharron Angle’s campaign, just give a free two-months trip, all expenses paid, to a nice Carribean Island to Harry Reid’s communcations and messaging team.

    That would cost less money and be more effective, since I can’t believe that Harry ‘Piede in bocca’ Reid thought of this ads or even of the general messaging idea/campaign strategy himself.

  4. these pulse polls, can anyone buy them. Could I just fork out $600 and have anything I wanted polled? I am actually tempted, I would love to see some IN-09 numbers and that seems like a great price. Funny though how Rasmussen contradicts itself as the regular rass poll has Boxer +4 but the pulse only has her +1.  

  5. On the Democratic offense seats, DCCC thought Seals was okay, and pulled back. RNCC moves in. Will be interesting to see if RNCC spends in LA-2.

  6. The big news about Joe Miller is that he was able to farm ANYTHING near Fairbanks.  But, conditions are improving!


    FAIRBANKS — Researchers say higher temperatures have given Alaska a longer growing season.

    According to the Alaska Climate Research Center, Fairbanks is 2 1/2 degrees Fahrenheit warmer and 11 percent drier than it was 100 years ago.

    The changes have stretched the growing season from 85 days in the early 20th century to 123 days.


    Maybe time to put down some cash on this great business opportunity, but according to Joe Miller, his crops aren’t REALLY growing…  

  7. First Feingold, who no one had on their radar, is down by double digits, the another seat we expected to hold in WV comes into question with Manchin down by 3.  Then WA-09 has somewhat dismal numbers for smith in a D+5 districts.

    The only silver lining is that Brown and Boxer seems to be in good shape against their CEO opponents.

    Message to the rest of the country, California dems are doing their part, dems in OH, NH, MO and WI need to do theirs.

  8. He made awesome statements about Bev Perdue at the Cree event that she needs to trot out in 2012 (if he wins again, which looks likely).  Basically gave her a fantastic one-liner:

    “This is a great day and a wonderful occasion and I think the governor deserves a lot of credit,” Burr said. “Under her leadership we’re headed in the right direction from the stand point of re-employment in the state.”

    Also, as for Miller, I think we’re missing the best argument possible: undercutting he and all Tea Partiers on this.  If they want to argue that all these subsidies are unconstitutional now, how come he didn’t think so then?  And if he did then, why did he take them?  Yeah, the economy was great under Bill, but thats only part of the argument.  Arguing the constitutionality of the whole thing cuts their entire campaign argument off at the knees.

  9. In retrospect, Obama’s decision to flip Specter was a massive fail.  Obama was convinced that one vote in the Senate was worth destabilizing the PA-Sen race, and maybe it was on health care, but on everything else it hasn’t mattered at all.  Had Specter stayed a Republican, Toomey would have run as the teabagger candidate, won the primary, and then been way too far right to win in the general against Sestak (or an even better candidate, like Rendell).  Instead, Toomey gets all this time alone in the Republican primary to define himself toward the center — something he absolutely had to do after being Mr. Conservative for the last six years — while Sestak drains his coffers on Specter and has nothing left for the general.

    Flipping Specter gave us a mostly useless Senate seat from 2009-2010, but cost us the same seat for the next six years.  It’s that simple.

  10. so this ends up in the Daily Digest (hopefully) I’m posting this.

    The founder of eBay, who’s the person Meg Whitman owes for the job she so touts says he won’t vote for her if he still lived in California. He says he doesn’t believe in her positions on Prop 8 and immigration.…  

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