KY-06: Chandler Leads Barr by 14

Braun Research for cn|2 (9/21-22, likely voters, 7/26-27):

Ben Chandler (D-inc): 51 (46)

Andy Barr (R): 37 (32)

Undecided: 13 (21)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Yet another good poll for Ben Chandler. For those keeping score, Chandler was up by 20% in his latest internal, by 14% in a DCCC internal, and by 7% in Barr’s internal. I like all of those numbers!

Meanwhile, Braun also polled the Senate race, and finds that Jack Conway has a 47-41 lead on Rand Paul in the 6th CD. Unfortunately, Braun didn’t test the Senate race in their July poll of this district, so no trend lines there. (Though note that Braun’s last statewide poll had Paul leading Conway by 10% in the 6th, but of course the standard caveats about high-MoE sub-samples apply here.) You’ve got to figure that this is a must-win district for Conway this fall.

25 thoughts on “KY-06: Chandler Leads Barr by 14”

  3. In the Presidential Election? Perhaps we can get a better sense of how close (or far) KY-06 votes with the state in federal races.

  4. He has voted his district very well during his stint in congress. Conway can carry this district and still lose statewide (its not a bell-weather), so he’ll need to rack up a big margin here. If I had to bet though I think Paul will win.

  5. It looks like Chandler is ahead, but I think these Braun Research polls should be met with a bit of skepticism.

    They released a poll in Kentucky 3 that showed Cong. Yarmuth with a 23-point lead- 53%-30%. On its face, that’s not unreasonable, but it showed Obama with a 58% job approval ratings when he only received 56% of the vote there in 2008. Seems to be a stretch that he’s more popular than two years ago.

    And that poll had Conway winning the district with only 51%. That would be terrible news for Conway since it’s his home district and the most Democratic in the state.  

  6. In 2008 Obama lost KY by 16.  He lost the 6th by 12.  If that trend holds, then Conway must win by just over 52-48 here for a 50-50 to win statewide.

    In 2004, Kerry lost KY by 20.  He lost the 6th by 17. In 2000 Gore lost KY by 15 and lost the 6th by 14.

    Sooo, Obama +4 versus the state, Kerry +3 versus the state, Gore +1 versus the state.  Then again, different district in 2000 (redistricting, so throw that out).

    Bascially a 6 point win here would be great, holding all other districts constant to their usual over/underperformance.

    On the other hand, the 3rd is a “must landslide.”

    Source:http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/

    and

    http://uselectionatlas.org/RES…

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