Rankings are ‘Tilt’ (less than 5 point race), ‘Lean’ (5-10 point race) and ‘Favored ‘(10-20 point race). Anything beyond that is ‘Solid’ for either party.
August and September rankings at links.
http://www.swingstateproject.c…
http://www.swingstateproject.c…
SENATE
Dem Tilt
WV (Jury is out on wisdom of election this year.)
CT (People like Blumenthal and aren’t fussed about McMahon but closer than it should be.)
NV (Reid can’t pull away but surely Nevadans can’t elect that nut. Can they?)
Rep Tilt
IL (Hardest call to make. I’m still confident Alexi can get over the hump though.)
Dem Lean
NY (Kirsten’s problem was always that people don’t know her. First ads now helping with that.)
WA (Need to see polls not by Rasmussen to see if Rossi has bounced back.)
CA (Boxer isn’t out of the woods yet but the GOP have better targets.)
Rep Lean
WI (Shocked this has shifted so quickly and so convincingly.)
CO (Bennet doesn’t seem to be getting any traction.)
KY (The one remaining shot at a pickup but I suspect it will be another heartbreaker like ’04.)
PA (Sestak has left it too late this time I fear.)
MO (This will be close but doesn’t look good.)
NH (Independents leaning heavily Republican across the country so Hodes has little chance with them dominating the electorate here.)
Dem Favored
DE (Thanks Teabaggers!)
Rep Favored
OH (No Brunner fans she would not be doing better.)
FL (Crist is becoming a bit of a joke.)
NC (Marshall has no money so no contest.)
IN (In any other year I think Ellsworth wins. Want more polls.)
AR (Lincoln won’t lose as big as some think.)
AK (McAdams has great ads but think Dems will be strategic and help Murkowski.)
LA (Melancon ad hitting Vitter where it hurts in final bid but he was never winning this year if any.)
ND safely in the GOP column.
GOVERNORS
Dem Tilt
CA (August as good as it gets for Whitman. As suspected Brown just had to go up on tv to get ahead. No blowout though.)
Rep Tilt
OH (Strickland running a great campaign but Kasich a tough opponent.)
IL (Quinn is clearly closing despite his problems. Not sure if it will be enough though.)
ME (LePage seems to be sinking but suspect he still leads. Just.)
VT (Need more polling to see if Shumlin has closed here.)
FL (Scott floods the airwaves and Floridians don’t seem to care how dodgy he is.)
OR (Kitzhaber surprisingly weak but still in with a good shout.)
Dem Lean
CT (Foley has skeletons and Malloy does not which in a blue state means a Dem gain.)
MN (Dayton isn’t perfect but split field means a Dem gain.)
MD (Blue state and decent O’Malley approvals mean no Ehrlich return.)
NH (Longevity and the cycle hurt Lynch but I think he’ll be fine.)
MA (Patrick’s job numbers have risen steadily. Suspect he wins even if Cahill drops out late.)
Rep Lean
PA (Onorato seems to be closing a little but too little too late I fancy.)
TX (Great campaign from Bill White but afraid the state is just too red this year.)
GA (Cannot quite believe Deal is getting a pass here.)
NM (Martinez has a perfect resume for this year.)
WI (Seems to be moving away from Barrett.)
Dem Favored
CO (Hickenlooper breaks 50 on election day despite having two opponents.)
HI (Abercrombie will have to work for it but should be fine.)
RI (Caprio with the advantage but even if Chafee wins this is basically a Dem gain either way.)
NY (No longer a rout but I’m not worried.)
AR (Every incumbent Dem should be on this board!)
Rep Favored
SC (Latest poll looks dodgy but still expect this to tighten in the final weeks.)
NV (Possible Rory could make this close but I can’t see any way he wins.)
MI (Since a Republican was always likely to win Snyder isn’t half bad.)
AZ (Brewer’s debate debacle doesn’t seem to have hurt much.)
OK (I suspect no total blowout but a comfy margin all the same.)
IA (Culver might be toast even with a weaker Republican.)
TN (McWherter turns out to be a bit of dud.)
KS (Nobody seems to have much love for Brownback but even fewer love Dems this year.)
ID (Closer than expected but Otter will win.)
AK (Berkowitz is a decent nominee but I bet he wishes he had challenged Murkowski instead.)
WY safely in the GOP column.
Projection
SENATE – GOP +7
GOVERNORS – GOP +7
VT and NM governor, your rankings are exactly the same as mine. Needless to say, I think you did a great job!
I had it flipping as recently as a week ago. Kirk had been up 3-4 points in a string of polls and Quinn was tanking badly, which I viewed as a drag on Alexi.
But the last few polls show a dead heat again, instead of a measurable Kirk lead, and Quinn clearly is recovering somewhat into a more competitive race.
So I can no longer call this anything worse than a pure toss-up.
If I’m FORCED to say where it ends up, I’m now saying Giannoulias wins in a state where support for the home-state President helps carry the day, both among some swing voters and in a turnout model that will improve as Democratic interest rises everywhere.