SSP Daily Digest: 10/4 (Afternoon Edition)

• CT-Sen: Remember how Linda McMahon was touting how the WWE dialed things back to “PG-rated” entertainment this decade? That didn’t seem to take into account some corporate synergy between WWE and the Girls Gone Wild empire, who collaborated on a 2003 pay-per-view. My Left Nutmeg has the rundown on GGW’s greatest legal hits, and also some compare and contrast with WWE’s own most luridly misogynist moments from its pre-PG days.

• IN-Sen: Brad Ellsworth, after a few weeks in the dark, is going back on the air with an ad hitting Dan Coats on outsourcing, including his lobbying ties to job-shippers and his own NAFTA vote in the early 90s. However, it looks like this ad is coming out of the Ellsworth campaign coffers, as the DSCC (contrary to a brief flurry of reports) still doesn’t seem to be buying any time here.

• MD-Sen: Washington Post (9/22-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

Barbara Mikulski (D): 61

Eric Wargotz (R): 29

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Here’s the Senate half of WaPo’s last Maryland poll, with Barbara Mikulski looking like she might match the 65% she got in her 2004 re-election. Her lead is 59-24 among RVs, so Maryland, like many solidly blue states, has less of an enthusiasm gap problem than the swing states. Her opponent’s problem is, naturally, name rec: he has 10/9 favorables, with 81% with no opinion.

• NV-Sen: Sharron Angle will be in Washington DC tomorrow, fundraising at the NRSC headquarters at a minimum-$500 event replete with many lobbyists and ex-Senators. If that causes a little head-spinning cognitive dissonance for you — in the wake of revelations of her inexplicably tape-recorded summit with Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian in which they both agree that the GOP has been corrupt since, oh, at least 1994 — well, then, clearly you’re not a Republican.

• CA-Gov: While Meg Whitman and Jerry Brown have actually gotten down to some debating lately, tomorrow’s planned debate is suddenly off… and without any explanation it’s by mutual agreement, not purely a Whitman pullout (while she retrenches in the wake of her illegal employment arrangement with her housekeeper). If you’re wondering what the first poll of the race taken since the story broke looks like and whether it’s hurting Whitman, well, there’s a box called “Rasmussen” down at the bottom of the digest…

• CO-Gov: Here’s a little more info on what happens to the Colorado GOP if Dan Maes doesn’t reach 10% in the gubernatorial race. You probably know they get stuck in “minor party” status, which affects their ballot position in both 2012 and 2014. But (this is new, at least to me) it also has major fundraising ramifications for state legislative candidates in those cycles, halving what they can raise from individual donors.

• MA-Gov: Tim Cahill, whose right-leaning indie campaign lost its wheels months ago and last week seems to have lost most of its chassis as well too, still plans to go on the air with $1 million worth of attack ads (his only ads so far have been positive, which may explain why he’s polling in the single digits). And here’s the good news… he’s going after Republican Charlie Baker. If he were to join Baker in training his guns only on Deval Patrick, that could be a problem, but he won’t. (Makes me wonder if he was a Patrick plant all along? Probably not, but it’d be one of the greatest stories in the history of ratfucking if true.)

• NY-Gov: Now here’s one big financial disparity, at least on paper. Andrew Cuomo’s warchest, as of required reports last week, is more than $19 million CoH. That contrasts sharply with Carl Paladino’s $209K. Of course, Paladino can write his own checks, and has promised to spend up to $10 million of his own money if necessary. (Even if he did, that’d still be a 2:1 disadvantage, with little likelihood of ‘recouping’ that money in the form of a win, so don’t count on it.) Cuomo spent almost $3 million on TV ads in the last few weeks, so he’s leaving nothing to chance.

• AL-02: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for DCCC (9/26-28, likely voters, 8/23-26 in parentheses):

Bobby Bright (D-inc): 52 (52)

Martha Roby (R): 43 (43)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Not a typo. The numbers seem to have stayed exactly the same over the last month, since GQR’s previous internal on behalf of Bobby Bright. In this climate, consistency is good.

• IA-01: If, like me, you’ve been wondering why AFF is pouring $800K into the race against Bruce Braley in the 1st, which no observer has taken much interest in or seen any smoke coming from, well, now you have an answer: Sandy Grenier is the head of AFF. She’s also running for state Senate in her spare time… in Iowa. In other words, she’s pouring money into a race that’s her own personal hobby horse, at the expense of other races that are actually competitive. (And that’s not even the main point of the article… it turns out that Grenier, like so many other members of the current wave of GOP candidates, is a big believer in sucker-punching the government with one hand even as you take money from it with the other. Her family has received over $935K in farm subsidies over the last 15 years.)

• NY-20: Grove Insight for DCCC (9/28-30, likely voters, no trendlines):

Scott Murphy (D-inc): 51

Chris Gibson (R): 38

(MoE: ±4.9%)

We haven’t seen an internal in this district until now. While the numbers are nice, this actually isn’t as good as Siena’s poll of the district mid-September, which put Murphy up 54-37.

• WV-03: Anzalone Liszt for Nick Rahall (9/27-29, likely voters, no trendlines):

Nick Rahall (D-inc): 59

Spike Maynard (R): 34

(MoE: ±4.5%)

With the DCCC out with a poll a couple weeks ago giving Rahall a 55-37 lead (and even that round of AFF polls showing him up by 16), I think it may be time to stop discussing this race as competitive. What’s most remarkable here is that the Dems manage to have a 47-37 edge on the generic ballot question, and Maynard (a controversial ex-state Supreme Court justice) still manages to underperform that low bar.

• DCCC: Now who’s copping out on their DCCC dues payments? CQ finds that the Congressional Hispanic Caucus has been particularly remiss on making its payments, with only junior leadership member Xavier Becerra having paid all his dues as of the Aug. 24 tally. (Two more, including CHC chair Nydia Velazquez, report having paid up since then.) Some members cite failure to move immigration reform as a reason for holding out and giving directly to cooperative individual Reps instead.

• AL-St. Sen.: Despite having a 25-10 20-15 Democratic edge in the Alabama state Senate, many observers are thinking it’s high on the list of legislative chambers that could flip this year, given a perfect storm of local and national dynamics. And this isn’t going to help: 4 different members of the 35-person body got snared in a federal probe of a bingo operation. One is a retiring Republican, but the others are a Dem running in a tossup seat, a Dem running in a safe seat, and an independent running for re-election who was expected to caucus with Dems next session (Harri Anne Smith, whom you might remember from the AL-02 2008 GOP primary). This scandal looks like it’ll drive the legislative race conversation in the state for the remaining weeks.

• NY-St. Sen.: There are four more polls from Siena of state Senate races in New York, showing two pretty safe incumbents (one from each party) but two open seats in true tossup territory. The safe-ish incumbents are Dem David Valesky in SD-40 (beating Andrew Russo 50-40) and GOPer James Alesi in SD-55 (beating Mary Wilmot 55-35). The other two races seem close mostly because of their screwy circumstances. In the Hudson Valley’s GOP-held SD-40, GOPer Greg Ball (an inflammatory teabagger out of step with a district more amenable to moderate GOPers) leads Dem Michael Kaplowitz 45-44. And in Buffalo-area Dem-held SD-58, GOPer Jack Quinn (not the ex-Rep., but a relative) leads at 42, but that’s because Tim Kennedy (on the Dem and Con lines) is at 39 and William Stachowski (whom Kennedy beat in the Dem primary) is at 12 on the WFP and IP lines.

• State legislatures: At SSP, we’re always about finding ways for you to maximize the leverage you get out of your political contributions, and there’s no better way to do that than through giving at the state legislative level, where a little money can go a long way (especially a lot of vulnerable chambers and redistricting looming.) The DLCC is out with its second list of Essential races, in the contests they consider important ones in the quest to hold important legislative chambers.

One other resource you should check out is the “Win Big By Thinking Small” ActBlue page, courtesy of Progressive Kick. They have 18 different progressives in important state legislative races all in one place. (One name you might remember is Patsy Keever, who ran in NC-11 in 2004.)

• SSP TV:

• CT-Sen: The DSCC is out with an ad simply called “Bad” focusing on Linda McMahon as bad CEO of WWE; meanwhile, the McMahon camp is out with an ad calling Richard Blumenthal a liar for the nth time over his Vietnam service

• MD-Sen: Barbara Mikulski seems to have an easy race, but is still hitting the airwaves touting her education record

• OH-Gov: John Kasich says that 400,000 Ohio jobs were lost under Ted Strickland’s watch (without, of course, guessing at how many of those job losses were proximally related to the devastation of the credit market in the wake of the collapse of Lehman Brothers)

• CA-03: Ami Bera hits Dan Lungren for using ethical loopholes to party with lobbyists in Hawaii

• FL-12: Faced with a state Rep. opponent, Dem Lori Edwards tries running against Tallahassee instead of Washington (and against big insurance, while she’s at it), in what’s definitely today’s most cut-through-the-clutter ad

• PA-11: Paul Kanjorski keeps going to the well of how bad a mayor of Hazleton Lou Barletta was

• NRCC: The NRCC is out with freakin’ 27 different ads today… you can see the full list at their blog, and even watch them if you have 13½ minutes of your life you don’t want to get back

• Rasmussen:

• AR-Gov: Mike Beebe (D-inc) 51%, Jim Keet (R) 41%

• AR-Sen: Blanche Lincoln (D-inc) 37%, John Boozman (R) 55%

• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 49%, Meg Whitman (R) 44%

• NM-Gov: Diane Denish (D) 41%, Susana Martinez (R) 51%

• PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 41%, Tom Corbett (R) 53%

• WY-Gov: Leslie Peterson (D) 25%, Matt Mead (R) 61%

197 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 10/4 (Afternoon Edition)”

  2. 1) If there’s a hidden pickup for Democrats out there that is not DE-AL, LA-02, IL-10, HI-02, MN-06, or FL-25 (and those last two aren’t sure by any means),  what is it? Make your case.

    2) What is your national bellwether House district for this election, and why?

    My answers:

    I’ll open by saying that I should probably say CA45, but my favorite sleeper that hasn’t gotten too much play is the Arizona 3rd. Ben Quayle (son of Dan) is an absolutely terrible candidate, and I like the Dem, John Hulburd, a lot. That said, the environment created by SB1075 isn’t going to benefit Dems, and Quayle will likely get dragged across the line. But he’s also exactly the sort of candidate who I could see saying and doing some monumentally stupid thing in the last weeks of the campaign and blowing what should be an extra point kick for the GOP in a year like this.

    I’ve decided that the closest thing to a bellwether in this environment is the Pennsylvania 3rd, held by freshman Kathy Dahlkemper. It’s a very balanced district (4949 Obama/McCain) in the industrial Great Lakes region. Dahlkemper’s opponent, is a car dealer from Butler County (the suburban Pittsburgh end of the district) named Mike Kelly who is pretty close to a generic R in this environment. I’m pretty confident that if Dahlkemper heads back to Congress, Nancy Pelosi will still be speaker.

  3. Suffolk University Poll

    BOSTON – With barely four weeks left in the 2010 election cycle, Democrat Pat Quinn (43 percent) has opened up a six point lead over Republican Bill Brady (37 percent) in the Illinois race for governor, according to the latest Suffolk University poll. Independent Scott Lee Cohen has 7 percent, Green Party candidate Rich Whitney polls 3 percent, and Libertarian Lex Green gets 1 percent, while just 8 percent remain undecided.

    Meanwhile, it’s nearly a dead heat in the race for the U.S. Senate. Republican Mark Kirk (42 percent) edges Democrat Alexi Giannoulias (41 percent), though the race is well within the statistical margin of error. Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones has 4 percent, followed by Libertarian Mike Labno, with 3 percent. There are 10 percent still undecided.

  4. It’s looking like we have more of a chance holding on to AR-Sen then we do PA-Gov.

    Minus well just start calling him “Governor Corbett.”  

  5. Seriously, over half are “X voted for/with Pelosi” thus fire them. They also are stuck with railing on stimulus cause so few of them have HCR votes. They also try talking about “energy tax” that will NEVER exist (suck). Seriously, try saying “X supports Obama’s plans to do (stuff).”

    Really, where’s the presidential ties? How many times in 2006 did dems says “votes with Hastert?” NEVER! Go for the guy everyone recognizes.

  6. IA-01: There is no honor among thieves, is there?

    CO-Gov: Preventing smaller parties from getting big donations doesn’t seem to be fair.  At least, that’s what I’m reading; let me if I’m misreading.

    WV-03: They should try running Spike Spiegel instead.  Though I think he’s a Democrat.

  8. I think McMahon pretty much blunted any late momentum she had and shot herself in the foot with her inflammatory comments about the minimum. And a lot of the unsavory WWE things seem to be catching up with her more more, at a time when she’s running out of things to attack Blumenthal with. Seriously, that ad was weak. I’m very confident now that Blumenthal will win 54-46 if he doesn’t make anymore mistakes.

    As for AR-Senate, watch out! If Boozman’s lead falls below ten points, he’s probably in prime territory to be upset. For instance Rasmussen’s final 2006 poll of the AR-GOV race was 49-41 Beebe. He ended up winning 55-40. Seven points better than was predicted.  

  9. I moved him to Favored when Siena came out so the internal is encouraging. Yet Rothenberg just moved him to Tossup/Tilt Dem for some reason. Odd.

  11. It seems like Gallop is trying to cover all their bases, their  generic ballot has 3 different results (RV, LV high turnout, LV low turnout).

    RV- R+3

    LV (High turnout)- R+13

    LV (Low turnout) – R+18

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/143…

    I call Bullshit. I know things are not good for Dems but being down 13-18 points with LV’s? No way.

  13. It’s not as easy as saying the Democrats have a 20-15 advantage. In fact, the 20-15 advantage does not really state the true problem.

    In recent years there’s been a group of Democrats who have formed a coalition with Republicans. I think Mississippi has a similar coalition.

    That, combined with some major retirements on the Democratic side, are the reasons for concern, not necessarily the national environment.

  14. Speaking of polls I have a hard time believing.

    Republican Chip Cravaack says a recent poll conducted for his campaign shows he is surprisingly close to longtime DFL incumbent Jim Oberstar in the race for Minnesota’s Eighth Congressional District.

    Cravaack announced today the poll showing he’s just 3 percentage points behind Oberstar at 45-42.

    The poll was conduced for Cravaack’s campaign Sept. 28-30 by Public Opinion Strategies of 300 likely voters in the district. The polling company says the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.66 percent.

    http://www.duluthnewstribune.c…

  16. Greiner’s running in Iowa Senate district 45, and her race is one of the top priorities for the Iowa GOP (it would be a pickup). I previewed it here. It really bothers me that no Iowa journalist (that I know of) is asking questions about where the AFF gets its funding and who Greiner will be representing if she’s elected to the Iowa Senate. You would think voters in district 45 would have a right to know who’s paying for her group’s megamillion-dollar advertising drive.

    The American Future Fund has deep financial and organizational ties to Terry Branstad’s campaign as well, including former AFF staffers in key campaign roles and hundreds of thousands of dollars in donations from people with ties to the AFF.

  18. Jack Conway and Rand Paul were featured in what seems to have been an fairly unimpressive debate on Fox News Sunday yesterday. I haven't watched most of the debate, as I tend to find them boring, frankly, and most coverage I've seen of it suggests this was a predictable affair mostly consisting of both candidates repeating the attacks they've been making in their ads over the last few weeks. Conway is focusing heavily on Paul's previous comments on federal spending, not just on the now well-known drug enforcement issue but now also on Medicare and Social Security. Paul's campaign has attempted to parry these attacks with (in my opinion) a weak stab at Conway's anti-drug efforts as Kentucky AG, as well as discussing the federal deficit. Oh, and there was also an annoying little exchange where Conway referred to “Wendell Ford's senate seat”, upon which Paul corrected him by pointing out that it is in fact “the people of Kentucky's senate seat”. This people's seat meme is really getting childish, if you ask me. Finally, I'm not given to commenting on a candidate's personal appearance, but the dark suit, red tie combo both Conway and Paul sported stuck out to me. 

     Paul and Conway will have another debate on October 17th in Louisville, which will be covered by local channel WHAS11. A strong performance on local television would certainly benefit Conway in boosting his vote share in the Lousiville area; a strong victory in this area is vital to his overall chances statewide.

     Speaking of being childish, I can't help but chuckle at the photo of hapless Louisville mayoral candidate Greg Fischer featured in this Courier-Journal story about a voter turnout rally yesterday. The event, which not only featured appearances by Dem candidate Fischer and indy Jackie Green but also included free food, apparently ran out of said food before either candidate was to adress the audience, resulting in almost everyone getting bored and leaving before Fischer could take the stage. I'll give Fischer credit for apparently taking it in stride, though. 

     Finally, I'm noticing a definite feeling of momentum on the ground here in the Ninth District of Indiana. Baron Hill's already recieved some praise for the aggressive campaign he's mounted against Todd Young, which seems to have given him some breathing room in his race when a lot of incumbents around the country with a similar profile are fighting for their political lives, but even as Young appears to have been knocked off balance Hill and especially the Indiana state party have only continued their barrage against him. Voters are being inundated with negative mailers against Young, in addition to the ad campaigns on television, and maybe I'm just being overly optimistic but in my recent travels around my part of the district I've been seeing a much larger amount of lawn signs and stickers for Hill. Unfortunately, I can't say the same for the Senate race, where Ellsworth still seems dead in the water. 

  23. http://politicalwire.com/archi…

    The message is OK. The delivery is Ben Quayle. All of the black makes me question the “I’m not a witch”. You can see the link between this ad and Fred Davis’ (he produced this ad) Fiorina ads. Most of Fiorina’s ads have used the black background, black clothing, and Fiorina even had pearls on in some of her ads. Is he dressing them too?

  24. Isn’t the DOJ supposed to avoid indictments during the election season to avoid influencing elections against those who have been charged but not convicted?  Was this one of those leftover Bushie atty’s who did this?  

  25. I missed it… any reactions?  Everyone is calling McMahon’s new ad “brutal”, but it seems desperate to me, since it is rehashing old stuff that has been said and done before.  Hopefully, it backfires… thoughts on that, too?

  26. the NRSC didn’t pull out of California completely. Because they just helped foot the bill for Fiorina’s latest ad. Which is a lot more effective than her first one.

  27. I should know this, it being my home state and all, but is the Colorado GOPquake that is Dan Maes chance of getting less than 10% (he’ll do better, I’m almost sure) going to hurt the GOP’s chances in the future uniquely because it’s a gubernatorial election?  Or is it Colorado law?  I don’t think anything happened to the Connecticut GOP after Schlessinger failed to hit that threshold.  Did it?  By the way, what are other times (other than unopposed races) that a major party candidate did this badly?

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