In this diary I will try to explain my point about where can work the money in the last month of the campaign.
Like we know, we are not in the best year for the democrats, and this year come after good results in 2006 and 2008. Than mean this is a year for defense. Despite the anti-incumbent mode, we must take in to account what the democrats win the big majority of the offices in the favorable constituencies (states or districts), and that means they are few winnable offices in republican hands.
I think too the money will work better in the big races because good results in the highest level elections can help to the less level offices in the same ticket.
And finally, the money can work better in the more competitive races because the difference between win or lose is not high.
Cause of that I recommend look to the battleground states for give some money.
HARD BATTLEGROUND STATES
These states have the highest number of highly competitive elections and the fight will not end until the day of the elections.
In some of this states, the senate and the gubernatorial races, both, can be competitive until the end. The money for one can help in the other, and can help to other lower level competitive races too.
I include the races and the state chamber majorities in risk but winnables. I include not some others with worse prospects, but they are more.
Illinois
IL-Sen
IL-Gov + IL-LG
IL-08
IL-17
IL-14
IL-STPennsylvania
PA-Sen
PA-Gov + PA-LG
PA-12
PA-08
PA State House majority?Wisconsin
WI-Sen
WI-Gov + WI-LG
WI-07
WI State Senate majority
WI State House majorityColorado
CO-Sen
CO-07
CO-03
CO-ST
CO-SoS
CO State House majorityOhio
OH-Gov + OH-LG
OH-18
OH-13
OH-15
OH-SoS
OH State House majority?It is not time of be pessimistic about these states.
HIGH LEVEL RACES WHAT CAN BREAK TOWARD THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE BEFORE THE ELECTIONS
OR-Gov
NM-Gov + NM-LG
ME-Gov
VT-GovThe money can be a trouble in these races. More in Oregon and Vermont.
Bold emphasized the races what I think need more money at this point.
OTHER RACES WITH SOME NEGATIVE POLLS WHAT I WOULD NOT LIKE THE DEMOCRATS LOSE
NV-03
CA-11
LA-02
NY-19
HI-01
MI-09
IA-03
NH-01
VA-11
IA-SoS
CA-AG
DE-ST
NY State Senate majorityIm looking closely to some other without polls still.
At this point my biggest doubt is about Florida. This cycle the polls change fast and have big changes in this state.
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Well, the people support in the poll the chance of A Sink. Then I will recommend to donate money to her.
For follow the same line of tell close races what I use in the diary, help with money for win FL-Gov + FL-LG can be an important help for win too:
FL-CACS
In think FL-25, FL-22, FL-08 and maybe FL-12, can be a little better, while FL-AG, FL-CFO and FL-24 can be a little worse comparing with the races what I include in the first box (quote) of the diary.