Missouri Redistricting

I’ve been away for quite some time so I apologize if this topic has already been raised and exhausted, but I recently read that it’s odds-on Missouri will lose a Congressional seat rather than Minnesota next year.  This generates a number of questions about who controls redistricting in Missouri….and which seat is likely to be snuffed out.

First of all, with Missouri’s Republican legislature take the lead in redrawing district as is usually the case, with veto power in the hands of the Governor?  Or do they have a different system?  I can never keep track of which state has which approach.

Assuming the Republicans’ have the whip hand in the reconfiguration, it’s pretty obvious they will go about taking out the Democrats’ weakest links of which there are two.  The obvious weak link is Ike Skelton, assuming he prevails in 2010 which is far from a certainty.  But given the geography of his district and his age, it wouldn’t make much sense or be logistically plausible to radically alter his district…and since the district is almost certain to go Republican after Skelton retires anyway, there’s a much more convenient target in Russ Carnahan.

My guess is Carnahan’s seat will be the easiest to make disappear.  Lacy Clay’s MO-01 will simply have its boundaries pushed southward to absorb the most Democratic precincts in the existing MO-03, leaving Carnahan Jefferson County and the current MO-03’s least Democratic precincts with which he’ll be likely to run against Jo Ann Emerson in MO-08.

Am I either misinformed about MO’s redistricting specifics or all wet about my predictions here?  It sure looks to me like Missouri will have a 2 Democrats/6 Republicans split after this cycle and the retirement or defeat of Ike Skelton.

12 thoughts on “Missouri Redistricting”

  1. in 2000:

    The legislature is responsible for congressional districting, while senatorial and house apportionment commissions are in charge of legislative districting. The 10-member senatorial commission is appointed by the governor. The governor is required to choose five members from each party’s submitted list of 10 names. The 18-member house commission is chosen from a list of two names from both major parties for each of Missouri’s nine congressional districts. The governor chooses one representative from the two major parties in each district, creating the 18-member house commission. Members of both commissions are barred from running for state office within four years of the redistricting. The governor only has veto power over congressional district plans.

    Seems like the Republicans will not be unchecked here. However, the 2000 cycle did not go well for Democrats.  

  2. Only a serious Republican gerrymander could make a classic swing state go 6/2 on its delegation. Skelton, if he wins this year, is considered likely to retire rather than face redistricting. If that’s the case, his district will be dismantled. I would say that the easiest districts to disappear are Skelton’s 4th and Luetkemyer’s 9th.

    Also, Gov. Nixon would veto any map that made Russ Carnahan disappear, and it would be tough to do anyway. Lacy Clay’s district would be difficult to pack any more tightly with Democrats and there are just too many Ds in the St. Louis area to not have another D-leaning district, unless you split suburban areas among at least 3 or 4 other districts–which is impossible, short of an obvious and egregious gerrymander….which, again, Missouri’s Democratic governor would veto. Here are a couple of possible maps from SSPers (including me):

    http://www.swingstateproject.c…

    http://www.swingstateproject.c…    <—mine

    http://www.swingstateproject.c…

  3. I decided to eliminate Skelton, since there’s a chance he loses this year and a chance that he reitres in 2012 if he survives. His district sliced and diced and parts of it go to Graves, Cleaver, Emerson, Blunt/Long, and Luetkemeyer. Akin expands west a little bit and Carnahan goes south, taking in a few swingish counties along the river. Skelton’s home is in Cleaver’s new district, so even if he runs, the map would be 5-3 R.

  4. Governor Nixon will veto any such map. Republicans will be forced to make a compromise one that is fair to both parties. In exchange Nixon will probably cut some deals and agree to not veto some of their legislative initiatives. A 4-4 maps is fair for a 50-50 state.

    Here’s mine:

    Photobucket

    Photobucket

    The new fourth would be a near perfect fit for a moderate, suburban Democrat like Judy Baker or Susan Montee. While on a Presidential level it’s about 50-50, I’d say it leans a little more Democratic in state elections, particularly St. Joseph and the rural counties.  

  5. that the MO GOP would go along with a 4-4 map.  It will probably be a 5-3 map with 2 St. Louis and 1 KC seat for the Dems.

  6. hard to see how it happens otherwise.

    and my idea





    MO-5 is gonna wind up as a sink for someone’s votes, and Southern Clay to MO-5 is probably a more Republican possibility.

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