Public Policy Polling (9/30-10/2, likely voters, 1/4-5 in parentheses, gubernatorial numbers here):
Richard Blumenthal (D): 53 (60)
Linda McMahon (R): 41 (28)
Undecided: 7 (12)Dan Malloy (D): 50 (37)
Tom Foley (R): 40 (27)
Undecided: 10 (36)
(MoE: ±3.4%)
There’s probably some wrestling term for having seven knockout blows (if you count today’s Rasmussen and yesterday’s “Fox”) landed on you in one flurry, but rather than look it up, I’m just going to quote Nate Silver‘s most recent tweet instead of having a long, thoughtful writeup:
Can. We. Please. Stop. Pretending. That. Connecticut. Is. A. Toss. Up.
Opinion Research for CNN/Time (10/1-5, likely voters, no trendlines):
Richard Blumenthal (D): 54
Linda McMahon (R): 41
Undecided: 2Dan Malloy (D): 50
Tom Foley (R): 42
Undecided: 2
(MoE: ±3.5%)
CNN/Time offers registered voter numbers too, and Dems are even more dominant there: Blumenthal leads 56-37, and Malloy leads 52-39. LVs approve of Obama 46-49 (compared with RVs approving 52-42).
Merriman River Group for CT Politics Report (10/3, likely voters, no trendlines, gubernatorial numbers here):
Richard Blumenthal (D): 52
Linda McMahon (R): 45
Undecided: 3Dan Malloy (D): 48
Tom Foley (R): 45
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±2.4%)
This poll from Merriman is the weakest link among the public polls, but even it’s not too weak. As if all that weren’t enough, we have two different internal polls of the Senate race out, from both the Blumenthal campaign and from the DSCC (who just poured $1.5 million more into this race to make sure it’s a done deal… though that might be overkill, given these numbers).
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Richard Blumenthal (10/3-4, likely voters, no trendlines):
Richard Blumenthal (D): 53
Linda McMahon (R): 38
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±4%)
Hamilton Campaigns for DSCC (9/30-10/3, likely voters, no trendlines):
Richard Blumenthal (D): 52
Linda McMahon (R): 41
Undecided: 7
(MoE: ±3.5%)
When we heard constant stories from “inside sources” about Obama’s “trouble” and the state’s “volatile, unpredictable” electorate when every public poll put him up by approximately 10 points.
For both races really does call into question the CT-05 poll from the same firm our Republican friends are flogging.
I won’t say the race is over, but it’s no longer on my worry list. As is Delaware. I’m focusing on California and Washington, because if they hold those they hold the senate. Unless Joe or Ben decide to jump.
But no-one report about the interesting statewide offices in CT.
CT-Attorney General (for succeed R Blumenthal)
CT-Secretary of State (for succeed S Bysiewicz)
CT-State Comptroller (for succeed N Wyman)
I was worried a little with this one, nice to see some stabilization